Taming Uncertainty

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Taming Uncertainty

Ralph Hertwig,Timothy J. Pleskac,Thorsten Pachur
Taming Uncertainty Book PDF

Author : Ralph Hertwig,Timothy J. Pleskac,Thorsten Pachur
Publisher : MIT Press
Page : 489 pages
File Size : 48,6 Mb
Release : 2019-08-13
Category : Psychology
ISBN : 9780262039871

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Taming Uncertainty by Ralph Hertwig,Timothy J. Pleskac,Thorsten Pachur Pdf

An examination of the cognitive tools that the mind uses to grapple with uncertainty in the real world. How do humans navigate uncertainty, continuously making near-effortless decisions and predictions even under conditions of imperfect knowledge, high complexity, and extreme time pressure? Taming Uncertainty argues that the human mind has developed tools to grapple with uncertainty. Unlike much previous scholarship in psychology and economics, this approach is rooted in what is known about what real minds can do. Rather than reducing the human response to uncertainty to an act of juggling probabilities, the authors propose that the human cognitive system has specific tools for dealing with different forms of uncertainty. They identify three types of tools: simple heuristics, tools for information search, and tools for harnessing the wisdom of others. This set of strategies for making predictions, inferences, and decisions constitute the mind's adaptive toolbox. The authors show how these three dimensions of human decision making are integrated and they argue that the toolbox, its cognitive foundation, and the environment are in constant flux and subject to developmental change. They demonstrate that each cognitive tool can be analyzed through the concept of ecological rationality—that is, the fit between specific tools and specific environments. Chapters deal with such specific instances of decision making as food choice architecture, intertemporal choice, financial uncertainty, pedestrian navigation, and adolescent behavior.

Taming an Uncertain Future

Liam P.D. Stockdale
Taming an Uncertain Future Book PDF

Author : Liam P.D. Stockdale
Publisher : Rowman & Littlefield
Page : 199 pages
File Size : 40,5 Mb
Release : 2015-12-16
Category : Philosophy
ISBN : 9781783485024

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Taming an Uncertain Future by Liam P.D. Stockdale Pdf

A popular cliché in contemporary public discourse holds that we live in a time of increasing uncertainty; that the next catastrophe is perpetually imminent and yet increasingly beyond our capacity to foresee. The future, in short, is becoming much more difficult to control. One consequence of this increasingly widespread understanding of the future is that societies have turned to anticipatory governance strategies based on such concepts as risk management, the precautionary principle, and pre-emption to manage human affairs. This book takes an in-depth look at this trend by using the example of the ‘pre-emptive security’ strategies deployed in the post-9/11 War on Terror to develop a critical understanding of how the proliferation of such anticipatory governance strategies affects the way political power is organized and exercised. The book also makes a wider case for taking issues of time and the future more seriously in the study of contemporary global politics in particular and the social world more generally.

An Introduction to Self-adaptive Systems

Danny Weyns
An Introduction to Self adaptive Systems Book PDF

Author : Danny Weyns
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
Page : 288 pages
File Size : 46,6 Mb
Release : 2020-10-05
Category : Technology & Engineering
ISBN : 9781119574941

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An Introduction to Self-adaptive Systems by Danny Weyns Pdf

A concise and practical introduction to the foundations and engineering principles of self-adaptation Though it has recently gained significant momentum, the topic of self-adaptation remains largely under-addressed in academic and technical literature. This book changes that. Using a systematic and holistic approach, An Introduction to Self-adaptive Systems: A Contemporary Software Engineering Perspective provides readers with an accessible set of basic principles, engineering foundations, and applications of self-adaptation in software-intensive systems. It places self-adaptation in the context of techniques like uncertainty management, feedback control, online reasoning, and machine learning while acknowledging the growing consensus in the software engineering community that self-adaptation will be a crucial enabling feature in tackling the challenges of new, emerging, and future systems. The author combines cutting-edge technical research with basic principles and real-world insights to create a practical and strategically effective guide to self-adaptation. He includes features such as: An analysis of the foundational engineering principles and applications of self-adaptation in different domains, including the Internet-of-Things, cloud computing, and cyber-physical systems End-of-chapter exercises at four different levels of complexity and difficulty An accompanying author-hosted website with slides, selected exercises and solutions, models, and code Perfect for researchers, students, teachers, industry leaders, and practitioners in fields that directly or peripherally involve software engineering, as well as those in academia involved in a class on self-adaptivity, this book belongs on the shelves of anyone with an interest in the future of software and its engineering.

Care, Uncertainty and Intergenerational Ethics

C. Groves
Care Uncertainty and Intergenerational Ethics Book PDF

Author : C. Groves
Publisher : Springer
Page : 251 pages
File Size : 49,7 Mb
Release : 2014-12-02
Category : Philosophy
ISBN : 9781137317551

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Care, Uncertainty and Intergenerational Ethics by C. Groves Pdf

Our capacity to reshape the future has never been more powerful. Yet our ability to foresee the consequences of what we do has not kept pace. Is the idea that we have responsibilities to future generations therefore meaningful? This book argues that it is, with the aid of a unique reading of the care ethics tradition.

Uncertainty in Strategic Decision Making

Richard J. Arend
Uncertainty in Strategic Decision Making Book PDF

Author : Richard J. Arend
Publisher : Springer Nature
Page : 466 pages
File Size : 49,6 Mb
Release : 2024-01-03
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9783031485534

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Uncertainty in Strategic Decision Making by Richard J. Arend Pdf

Knight (1921) defines uncertainty as an informational market failure that, while being detrimental to most existing businesses, presents possible profitable opportunities for others. This book builds upon that classic work by providing an analysis of the alternative approaches to strategic decision-making under such uncertainty. It covers what uncertainty is, why it is important, and what connections it has to business and related fields, culminating in a new and comprehensive typology and a valuable guide for how to appropriately address various types of uncertainties, even under AI. It clarifies the current terminological and categorical confusion about ‘unknowns’ while complementing the mathematical, probability-based approaches that treat uncertainty as ‘knowable’ (i.e., as risk). It corrects the mistaken approaches that treat ‘unknowables’ as ‘shapeable’ or ‘discoverable’. This book widens the perspective for viewing uncertainty, in terms of its impacts across humanity, by offering a shrewder understanding of what roles uncertainties play in human activity. It will appeal to academics across business, economics, philosophy, and other disciplines looking for approaches to apply, test, and hone for dealing with decision-making under uncertainty.

Uncertain eternity, or eternal uncertainty?

Karel Svačina
Uncertain eternity or eternal uncertainty Book PDF

Author : Karel Svačina
Publisher : Masarykova univerzita
Page : 191 pages
File Size : 50,7 Mb
Release : 2019-01-01
Category : Crafts & Hobbies
ISBN : 9788021093409

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Uncertain eternity, or eternal uncertainty? by Karel Svačina Pdf

Tato kniha se zabývá sporem o plány na výstavbu hlubinného úložiště pro vysoce radioaktivní odpad v České republice. Od 90. let státní orgány vytipovaly několik míst, která by pro výstavbu úložiště mohla být vhodná. Záměr se však setkal s trvalým odporem dotčených obcí i neziskových organizací. Spor trvá bezmála dvě desetiletí, a dá se říci, že zatím nedošlo k výraznému posunu. Kniha podrobně rozebírá dotyčný spor na základě analýzy rozhovorů s klíčovými aktéry, pozorování z jednání a debat, vládních dokumentů či technických zpráv. S pomocí literatury vědních studií kniha analyzuje spor z hlediska toho, jak se v něm zachází s nejistotou a rizikem, a argumentuje pro posun z perspektivy založené na riziku směrem k perspektivě založené na nejistotě, jež by mohla pomoci spor odblokovat.

Working for Policy

Hal K. Colebatch,Robert Hoppe,Mirko Noordegraaf
Working for Policy Book PDF

Author : Hal K. Colebatch,Robert Hoppe,Mirko Noordegraaf
Publisher : Amsterdam University Press
Page : 260 pages
File Size : 52,5 Mb
Release : 2010
Category : Social Science
ISBN : 9789089642530

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Working for Policy by Hal K. Colebatch,Robert Hoppe,Mirko Noordegraaf Pdf

"This book addresses directly the nature of policy work. It blends academic and experiential knowledge of the policy process in describing, analysing and evaluating what modern policy workers do in particular situations, and why, how it contributes to the policy process, what impact it has, and what can we learn from this about the skills and knowledge required for policy work in complex modern societies."--Publisher's website.

Large-Scale Complex IT Systems. Development, Operation and Management

Radu Calinescu,David Garlan
Large Scale Complex IT Systems Development Operation and Management Book PDF

Author : Radu Calinescu,David Garlan
Publisher : Springer
Page : 426 pages
File Size : 53,7 Mb
Release : 2012-10-12
Category : Computers
ISBN : 9783642340598

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Large-Scale Complex IT Systems. Development, Operation and Management by Radu Calinescu,David Garlan Pdf

This book presents the thoroughly refereed and revised post-workshop proceedings of the 17th Monterey Workshop, held in Oxford, UK, in March 2012. The workshop explored the challenges associated with the Development, Operation and Management of Large-Scale complex IT Systems. The 21 revised full papers presented were significantly extended and improved by the insights gained from the productive and lively discussions at the workshop, and the feedback from the post-workshop peer reviews.

Sampling in Judgment and Decision Making

Klaus Fiedler,Peter Juslin,Jerker Denrell
Sampling in Judgment and Decision Making Book PDF

Author : Klaus Fiedler,Peter Juslin,Jerker Denrell
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
Page : 573 pages
File Size : 48,7 Mb
Release : 2023-05-31
Category : Psychology
ISBN : 9781316518656

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Sampling in Judgment and Decision Making by Klaus Fiedler,Peter Juslin,Jerker Denrell Pdf

An exploration of how statistical sampling principles impose theoretical constraints and enable novel insights on judgments and decisions.

Handbook of Research on Technoethics

Luppicini, Rocci,Adell, Rebecca
Handbook of Research on Technoethics Book PDF

Author : Luppicini, Rocci,Adell, Rebecca
Publisher : IGI Global
Page : 1082 pages
File Size : 52,9 Mb
Release : 2008-08-31
Category : Computers
ISBN : 9781605660233

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Handbook of Research on Technoethics by Luppicini, Rocci,Adell, Rebecca Pdf

"This book traces the emergence of the new interdisciplinary field of technoethics by exploring its conceptual development, important issues, and key areas of current research. Compiling 50 authoritative articles from leading researchers on the ethical dimensions of new technologies"--Provided by publisher.

Software Technologies

Marten van Sinderen,Leszek A. Maciaszek
Software Technologies Book PDF

Author : Marten van Sinderen,Leszek A. Maciaszek
Publisher : Springer
Page : 421 pages
File Size : 45,9 Mb
Release : 2019-08-12
Category : Computers
ISBN : 9783030291570

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Software Technologies by Marten van Sinderen,Leszek A. Maciaszek Pdf

This book constitutes the thoroughly refereed post-conference proceedings of the 13th International Joint Conference on Software Technologies, ICSOFT 2018, held in Porto, Portugal, in July 2018. The 18 revised full papers were carefully reviewed and selected from 117 submissions. The topics covered in the papers include: business process modelling, IT service management, interoperability and service-oriented architecture, project management software, scheduling and estimating, software metrics, requirements elicitation and specification, software and systems integration, etc.

Risk and the War on Terror

Louise Amoore,Marieke de Goede
Risk and the War on Terror Book PDF

Author : Louise Amoore,Marieke de Goede
Publisher : Routledge
Page : 296 pages
File Size : 49,7 Mb
Release : 2008-06-11
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781134068364

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Risk and the War on Terror by Louise Amoore,Marieke de Goede Pdf

Pt. 1. Risk, precaution, governance -- pt. 2. Crime, deviance, exception -- pt. 3. Biopolitics, biometrics, borders -- pt. 4. Risks, tactics, resistances.

Youth and the Politics of the Present

Enzo Colombo,Paola Rebughini
Youth and the Politics of the Present Book PDF

Author : Enzo Colombo,Paola Rebughini
Publisher : Routledge
Page : 315 pages
File Size : 55,7 Mb
Release : 2019-05-15
Category : Social Science
ISBN : 9780429582325

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Youth and the Politics of the Present by Enzo Colombo,Paola Rebughini Pdf

Youth and the Politics of the Present presents a range of topical sociological investigations into various aspects of the everyday practices of young adults in different European contexts. Indeed, this volume provides an original and provocative investigation of various current central issues surrounding the effects of globalization and the directions in which Western societies are steering their future. Containing a wide range of empirical and comparative examples from across Europe, this title highlights how young adults are trying to implement new forms of understanding, interpretation and action to cope with unprecedented situations; developing new forms of relationships, identifications and belonging while they experience new and unprecedented forms of inclusion and exclusion. Grounding this exploration is the suggestion that careful observations of the everyday practices of young adults can be an excellent vantage point to grasp how and in what direction the future of contemporary Western societies is heading. Offering an original and provocative investigation, Youth and the Politics of the Present will appeal to students and researchers interested in fields such as Youth Studies, Globalization Studies, Migration Studies, Gender Studies and Social Policy.

Systems Engineering for the Digital Age

Dinesh Verma
Systems Engineering for the Digital Age Book PDF

Author : Dinesh Verma
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
Page : 901 pages
File Size : 40,9 Mb
Release : 2023-10-24
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781394203284

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Systems Engineering for the Digital Age by Dinesh Verma Pdf

Systems Engineering for the Digital Age Comprehensive resource presenting methods, processes, and tools relating to the digital and model-based transformation from both technical and management views Systems Engineering for the Digital Age: Practitioner Perspectives covers methods and tools that are made possible by the latest developments in computational modeling, descriptive modeling languages, semantic web technologies, and describes how they can be integrated into existing systems engineering practice, how best to manage their use, and how to help train and educate systems engineers of today and the future. This book explains how digital models can be leveraged for enhancing engineering trades, systems risk and maturity, and the design of safe, secure, and resilient systems, providing an update on the methods, processes, and tools to synthesize, analyze, and make decisions in management, mission engineering, and system of systems. Composed of nine chapters, the book covers digital and model-based methods, digital engineering, agile systems engineering, improving system risk, and more, representing the latest insights from research in topics related to systems engineering for complicated and complex systems and system-of-systems. Based on validated research conducted via the Systems Engineering Research Center (SERC), this book provides the reader a set of pragmatic concepts, methods, models, methodologies, and tools to aid the development of digital engineering capability within their organization. Systems Engineering for the Digital Age: Practitioner Perspectives includes information on: Fundamentals of digital engineering, graphical concept of operations, and mission and systems engineering methods Transforming systems engineering through integrating M&S and digital thread, and interactive model centric systems engineering The OODA loop of value creation, digital engineering measures, and model and data verification and validation Digital engineering testbed, transformation, and implications on decision making processes, and architecting tradespace analysis in a digital engineering environment Expedited systems engineering for rapid capability and learning, and agile systems engineering framework Based on results and insights from a research center and providing highly comprehensive coverage of the subject, Systems Engineering for the Digital Age: Practitioner Perspectives is written specifically for practicing engineers, program managers, and enterprise leadership, along with graduate students in related programs of study.

The 6 Enablers of Business Agility

Karim Harbott
The 6 Enablers of Business Agility Book PDF

Author : Karim Harbott
Publisher : Berrett-Koehler Publishers
Page : 304 pages
File Size : 50,5 Mb
Release : 2021-06-01
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781523090068

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The 6 Enablers of Business Agility by Karim Harbott Pdf

Adopting the latest agile tools and practices won't be enough to respond to rapid market change. Leaders must first lay the groundwork by creating the right environment for these tools to work. Many managers struggle to install the underlying organizational operating system for business agility. High-performing agile organizations depend on the strength of six key enabling factors: leadership, culture, structure, people, governance, and ways of working. This book explains why these factors are important and how they work together to increase organizational agility. Real-world examples, stories, and tools will help leaders get realistic about the scope of changes needed in their organizations and show them how to get started. Karim Harbott does not offer a book of recipes. Instead, he focuses on mindset, principles, and general patterns. This book summarizes of the most important factors in increasing organizational agility and why they work, which leaders will need to consider in a so-called agile transformation. Because every organization is different, each will have its own route to agility and high performance. Managers will need to tackle all the areas that are crucial to creating an environment in which any chosen approach can work.