Techniques For Project Appraisal Under Uncertainty

Author : Shlomo Reutlinger
Publisher : Johns Hopkins University Press
Page : 120 pages
File Size : 50,9 Mb
Release : 1970
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : WISC:89038777025

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Techniques for Project Appraisal Under Uncertainty by Shlomo Reutlinger Pdf

The appraisal of events that have uncertain outcomes is discussed with particular reference to a feasible method for evaluating the riskiness of investment projects. The essence of the uncertainty problem is that many of the variables affecting the outcome of a particular plan are outside of the planner's control. Uncertainty, which is relevant for most decisions, is best characterized in terms of a decision agent's subjective beliefs about probabilities. The probabilistic approach lends itself best to an appraisal of possible outcomes of a project that is affected by uncertainties from many sources. Probability judgments about many basic variables and parameters affecting the final outcome can be aggregated into an estimate of the probability distribution of that final outcome. This aggregation method is demonstrated for calculation of the economic returns of a project. The method of approximation by a simulated sample is described, and its application to probability distribution rates of returns from actual projects is explained. The preparation of a mathematical model is detailed, emphasizing the usefulness of computerized calculations. Fourteen tables and nine figures are provided.

Author : Uwe Götze,Deryl Northcott,Peter Schuster
Publisher : Springer
Page : 366 pages
File Size : 55,9 Mb
Release : 2015-03-18
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9783662458518

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Investment Appraisal by Uwe Götze,Deryl Northcott,Peter Schuster Pdf

This book provides an introduction to investment appraisal and presents a range of methods and models, some of which are not widely known, or at least not well covered by other textbooks. Each approach is thoroughly described, evaluated and illustrated using examples, with its assumptions and limitations analyzed in terms of their implications for investment decision-making practice. Investment decisions are of vital importance to all companies. Getting these decisions right is crucial but, due to a complex and dynamic business environment, this remains a challenging management task. Effective appraisal methods are valuable tools in supporting investment decision-making. As organisations continue to seek a competitive edge, it is increasingly important that management accountants and strategic decision-makers have a sound knowledge of these tools.

Author : P.F. Ricci,L.A. Sagan,Chris Whipple
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
Page : 378 pages
File Size : 41,8 Mb
Release : 1984-04-30
Category : Technology & Engineering
ISBN : 9024729610

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Technological Risk Assessment by P.F. Ricci,L.A. Sagan,Chris Whipple Pdf

Proceedings of the NATO Advanced Study Institute on Technological Risk Assessment, Erice, Sicily, Italy, May 20-31, 1981

Author : Jock R. Anderson
Publisher : World Bank Publications
Page : 61 pages
File Size : 54,7 Mb
Release : 1989
Category : Commodity exchanges
ISBN : 8210379456XXX

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Forecasting, Uncertainty, and Public Project Appraisal by Jock R. Anderson Pdf

A measure of the probability of commodity price forecasts is not necessary for most project analysis, but it does give users a realistic view of the forecast's precision -- and imposes a useful discipline on the forecaster.

Author : Uwe Götze,Deryl Northcott,Peter Schuster
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
Page : 393 pages
File Size : 45,7 Mb
Release : 2007-12-22
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9783540399698

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Investment Appraisal by Uwe Götze,Deryl Northcott,Peter Schuster Pdf

This book presents a range of investment appraisal methods and models to help readers make good investment decisions. Each approach is thoroughly described, evaluated, and illustrated using examples, with its assumptions and limitations analyzed in terms of their implications for investment decision-making practice. Getting investment decisions right is crucial but due to a complex and dynamic business environment this remains a challenging management task.

Author : Martina Röhrich
Publisher : Oldenbourg Verlag
Page : 197 pages
File Size : 47,6 Mb
Release : 2010-10-01
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9783486700091

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Fundamentals of Investment Appraisal by Martina Röhrich Pdf

How to make sound investment decisions: This book is based on long-term experience with students, especially at the School of International Business of Bremen University of Applied Sciences. For a better understanding, a case study is constructed to illustrate all methods discussed. Written in an easily understood style it focuses on the reality of student life as well as of practitioners. The goal of the book is to pace a sure way through the variety of methods. Mathematical basics are specifically explained in detail. This book shows clearly why there are different methods in investment appraisal and on where to focus in a given situation. As all methods are introduced by the same case study, it is easy to compare and evaluate the results. The statements in the text are further consolidated by abstracts and evaluations of each of the methods. Exercises with extensive solutions will lead to the confidence which is necessary for an ease of handling the investment appraisal techniques and for a good preparation for students’ exams. German and international students at universities and other institutions of higher education will find this book an excellent systematic preparation for their exams. It is also directed toward members of the general public who need expert guidance in making professional investment decisions. Due to the increasing mobility of students and the internationalisation of many economic or business curricula, not only do German students tend to study more abroad, but also foreign students tend to study more in Germany. In German universities the number of courses in the English language is also increasing. That is why I have written this text in English. A companion volume in German, entitled ‘Grundlagen der Investitionsrechnung: Eine Darstellung anhand einer Fallstudie’ is also available. In both textbooks the pages are constructed identically. Using both textbooks simultaneously will help those students who still lack the necessary business vocabulary in the respective language to reasonably follow a class in English or German. This book clearly closes an existing gap in the literature. This is the first book in English about capital expenditure budgeting in the sense as it is usually taught in German higher education institutions. As a result international students now have literature covering the contents of a course in investment appraisal in the form of an easy-to-read case study with easily understood graphics and notations.

Author : Andreas Würfel
Publisher : diplom.de
Page : 116 pages
File Size : 49,7 Mb
Release : 2003-10-13
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9783832473075

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Evaluating real options as a means for investment appraisal under uncertainty and its degree of utilisation by companies by Andreas Würfel Pdf

Inhaltsangabe:Abstract: This paper evaluates the real options approach (ROA) as a means for appraising capital investments under uncertainty. Globalisation and growing competitiveness have led to an increase in uncertainty with regard to companies decision making. Flexibility to react to this uncertainty has become more important. The question arises whether there is a need for a further investment appraisal technique or whether traditional techniques can cope with that. A growing literature about real options shows that traditional investment appraisal techniques do not value flexibility. That is why ROA has become more important within recent years. However, the degree of its utilisation by companies seems to be rather low. Three possible reasons for that are examined: ROA is not well-known by companies, especially small- and medium-sized enterprises. ROA is only limitedly applicable. ROA is too difficult to use. After traditional investment appraisal techniques have been outlined, the real options approach is illustrated by means of a case study. The possible range of application is assessed by reviewing the literature. A survey was conducted to check whether companies know about or apply that technique, and to identify the tools used by companies. This study shows that while the range of possible applications of real options is rather vast, ROA is rarely known by German and British companies and barely applied. One reason might be, that most books and articles are of rather academic nature. This seems to have been realised since books with a focus on practical application have been published recently. The complexity of ROA seems to be a further reason for its low degree of utilisation. Companies tend to use simpler but more comprehensible techniques although these methods have some major drawbacks. However, business science should not end in itself but serve businesses. Therefore, further emphasis has to be put on making real options approachable for practitioners. Inhaltsverzeichnis:Table of Contents: I.Abstract2 II.Acknowledgements3 III.Table of Contents4 IV.List of Figures7 V.List of Abbreviations8 1.Introduction9 2.Characteristics of Investment Decisions11 2.1What Is a Capital Investment?11 2.2Risk and Uncertainty12 3.Tools for Investment Appraisals15 3.1Static Methods15 3.2Discounted Cash Flow Approaches (Dynamic)17 3.3Approaches Which Try to Deal With Risk20 4.The Real Options Approach24 4.1Why Use Real Options to [...]

Author : Nigel J. Smith
Publisher : Thomas Telford
Page : 156 pages
File Size : 46,7 Mb
Release : 2003-11-28
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 0727731858

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Appraisal, Risk and Uncertainty by Nigel J. Smith Pdf

Projects need to achieve strategic goals and to that end must work in different levels of uncertainty. Engineers must be aware of methods to operate in ambiguous situations. This book offers one of the first integrated approaches to these three topics based on the views of experts in these disciplines.

Author : Daniel M. G. Raff,Philip Scranton
Publisher : Oxford University Press
Page : 400 pages
File Size : 47,8 Mb
Release : 2016-12-06
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9780191091711

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The Emergence of Routines by Daniel M. G. Raff,Philip Scranton Pdf

This book is a collection of essays about the emergence of routines and, more generally, about getting things organized in firms and in industries in early stages and in transition. These are subjects of the greatest interest to students of entrepreneurship and organizations, as well as to business historians, but the academic literature is thin. The chronological settings of the book's eleven substantive chapters are historical, reaching as far back as the late 1800s right up to the 1990s, but the issues they raise are evergreen and the historical perspective is exploited to advantage. The chapters are organized in three broad groups: examining the emergence of order and routines in initiatives, studying the same subject in ongoing operations, and a third focusing specifically on the phenomena of transition. The topics range from the Book-of-the-Month Club to industrial research at Alcoa, from the evolution of procurement and coordination to project-based industries such as bridge- and dam-building and the governance of defence contracting, and from the development of project performance appraisal at the World Bank to the way the global automobile industry collectively redesigned the internal combustion engine to deal with after the advent of environmental regulation. The chapters are vivid and thought-provoking in themselves and, for pedagogical purposes, offer excellent jumping-off points for discussion of relevant experiences and cognate academic literature.

Author : Prof. Rashmi Agrawal & Dr. Yogieta S Mehra
Publisher : Taxmann Publications Private Limited
Page : 25 pages
File Size : 48,6 Mb
Release : 2021-06-17
Category : Education
ISBN : 9789390831951

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Taxmann’s Project Appraisal & Management – Case Study based Text, explaining all aspects of a Project from Inception to Implementation, for Professionals & Entrepreneurs by Prof. Rashmi Agrawal & Dr. Yogieta S Mehra Pdf

This book is a comprehensive & well-illustrated textbook on ‘Project Appraisal & Management’. It provides comprehensive coverage of the prescribed syllabus at both postgraduate and undergraduate level of all major universities of India. This book will be helpful for postgraduate and undergraduate courses in Management and specifically for the students of MBA/M.Com./BMS/BBA/Generic Paper of B.Com. (Hons.) The Present Publication is the Reprint June 2021 Edition, authored by Prof. Rashmi Agarwal & Dr. Yogieta S. Mehra, with the following noteworthy features: · [Case Studies] Each chapter begins and ends with a real Case Study, (both successful & failed ones are included) for illustrating the application of theoretical aspects in practical corporate life · [Ready Reckoner] for professionals, budding entrepreneurs, dreamers, and start-up enthusiast · [Questions] for review are provided at the end of every chapter · [Illustrations] in every chapter to explain the concepts in a lucid manner · [Checklists] for starting a New Business and preparation of Project Reports & Business Plan The flow of the book is as follows: · Chapters 1 – 4 provides the entire ‘feasibility analysis’ to assess the viability of a project · Chapters 5 – 7 are focused on impact analysis, i.e., economic, environmental & social analysis · Chapters 9 – 11 are dedicated to all the probable entrepreneurs who seek to know more about the essentials for starting a new venture The contents of the book are as follows: · An Introduction to Project Appraisal o Project Appraisal: An Introduction o Project Appraisal Process: Steps o Project Appraisal Methodology o Project Life Cycle o Origin of Project Appraisal o Development Planning and Project Appraisal · Identification of Investment Opportunities and Market Analysis o Case Study: Patanjali Ayurved o Introduction – Market Analysis o Business Ideas o Market Feasibility Analysis o Understanding the Market o Estimating Market Size o Industry Structure o Managing Competition o Forecasting Market Growth o Develop the Sales and Marketing Plan o Digital Marketing: The New Frontier · Technical Analysis o Case Study: A Techpreneur’s Guide to Success – Shiv Nadar o Introduction – Technical Analysis o Technical Appraisal Decision Tool of the Project o The Lender’s Analysis o Key Aspects of Technology o Impact of Technology on Management of Firms · Investment Appraisal: Introduction and Techniques o Case Study: Why the King of Good Times Flew Away o Introduction – Financial Analysis o Investment Decisions & Development Planning o Financial Feasibility Analysis o Investment Decision Criteria o Concept of Time in Financial Appraisal o Investment Decision Techniques o Inter-Relationship Between NPV, BCR and IRR o Financial Feasibility Analysis o Types of Contracts o Lender’s Perspective: Appraisal of Financial Viability · Economic Analysis o Case Study: Solar Parks o Introduction: Economic Analysis o Objectives of Economic Analysis o Rationale of Social Cost-Benefit Analysis o Direct and Indirect Cost and Benefits o Shadow Price o Choice of Discount Rate o Dealing with Uncertainty o Efficiency and Equity in Project Appraisal o Institutional Framework o UNIDO Method for Social Cost-Benefit Analysis o Little Mirrlees Approach for SCBA o Indian Scenario · Environmental Analysis o Case Study: EIA of Building a Hospital Project o Introduction – Environment Analysis o Physical Manifestation of Environment Degradation o Environmental Attributes for a Project o Environment Impact Assessment o EIA and Project Life Cycle o Environmental Considerations and Discount Rate o Economic Valuation of Natural Resources o Resource Allocation o Approaches for Value Measurements · Socio-Economic Analysis o Case Study: Patna Ghats o Introduction – Social Impact Assessment o Environmental and Social Impact Assessment o Progress of SIA o Principles for Social Impact Assessment o Social Impact Assessment Methods and Tools o The SIA Process and Report o Advantages – Social Impact Assessment · Risk and Sensitivity Analysis o Case Study PAYTM: Vijay Shekhar Sharma o Introduction – Risk and Uncertainty Analysis o Uncertainty Analysis o Risk Analysis o Project Selection under Risk o Monitoring and Control of Investment Projects · Entrepreneurship Case Study: Kent RO o Introduction: Entrepreneurship o Entrepreneurship Model and Traits o Theoretical Approaches of Entrepreneurship o Entrepreneurship: The Global Scenario · New Venture: Elements for Success o Case Study: Naturally Sweet Success Story o Introduction o Creativity o Motivation for Creative Ideas and Entrepreneurship o Barriers to Creativity o Techniques to Enhance Creativity o Strategic Planning and the Entrepreneur o Franchising · Formation of a New Venture o Introduction o Financing Options for a New Venture o What is a Start-up o Checklist for Starting New Business in India o Government Initiatives for Start-ups in India o Checklist for Preparation of Project Reports and Business Plan

Author : Anonim
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 408 pages
File Size : 52,6 Mb
Release : 1970
Category : Agriculture
ISBN : MSU:31293017236468

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Agricultural Economics Research by Anonim Pdf

Author : Martin Rogers,Aidan Duffy
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
Page : 396 pages
File Size : 47,7 Mb
Release : 2012-07-03
Category : Technology & Engineering
ISBN : 9781118378113

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Engineering Project Appraisal by Martin Rogers,Aidan Duffy Pdf

In most cases of civil engineering development, a range of alternative schemes meeting project goals are feasible, so some form of evaluation must be carried out to select the most appropriate to take forward. Evaluation criteria usually include the economic, environmental and social contexts of a project as well as the engineering challenges, so engineers must be familiar with the processes and tools used. The second edition of Engineering Project Appraisal equips students with the understanding and analytical tools to carry out effective appraisals of alternative development schemes, using both economic and non-economic criteria. The building blocks of economic appraisal are covered early, leading to techniques such as net present worth, internal rate of return and annual worth. Cost Benefit Analysis is dealt with in detail, together with related methods such as Cost Effectiveness and the Goal Achievement Matrix. The text also details three multi-criteria models which have proved useful in the evaluation of proposals in the transportation, solid waste, energy and water resources fields: the Simple Additive Weighting (SAW) Model, the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) technique and Concordance Analysis. There is a full discussion dealing with risk and uncertainty in these models. With many worked examples and case studies, Engineering Project Appraisal is an essential text for both undergraduate and postgraduate students on professional civil engineering courses, and it is expected that students on planning and construction management courses will find it a valuable addition to their reading.

Author : K. Samset
Publisher : Springer
Page : 286 pages
File Size : 46,8 Mb
Release : 2010-08-11
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9780230289925

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Early Project Appraisal by K. Samset Pdf

Focusing on turning an initial idea into a project with a successful outcome, this book fills a gap in current literature on project management and is thoroughly grounded in the latest research in this field. It emphasizes the practical application of decision making based on qualitative and judgmental information.

Author : Chris Chapman,Stephen Ward
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
Page : 520 pages
File Size : 51,5 Mb
Release : 2002-10-11
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : UCSD:31822031898158

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Managing Project Risk and Uncertainty by Chris Chapman,Stephen Ward Pdf

This title confidently puts forward a practical, new approach to decision making in an uncertain business world. Many variables are accounted for and the authors are innovative in integrating previous types of decision-making approaches with a more fluid, and therefore realistic model that can be applied across a wide range of contexts and decisions. A new title on a important topic that not only stands well on its own, but also complements Chapman and Ward's previous title Project Risk Management. This book is practical and rigorous yet written in an engaging way. It is perfect for courses, or to be used by practitioners.

Author : Dr. Sanjeev Bansal Dr. Ritu Wadhwa
Publisher : Kojo Press
Page : 265 pages
File Size : 49,6 Mb
Release : 2020-09-01
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9789388955201

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PROJECT PLANNING APPRAISAL & CONTROL by Dr. Sanjeev Bansal Dr. Ritu Wadhwa Pdf

Project Planning, Appraisal, and Control is an all-inclusive book intended to meet the necessities of postgraduate management students specializing in the area of finance. The purpose of this book is to acquaint readers with the theoretical and practical aspects of project management in an organization to maximize its value through various examples and revelations. This book makes the reader familiar with the objectives of project planning and various phases of projects. This book deals with the planning of the project with references to phases of capital budgeting and levels of decision making in an organization. It explains the various project charts and layout and also gives the details of the work schedules. It deals with the topic like project life cycle, project selection, feasibility study, and techniques like PERT and CPM. The techniques of project risk analysis and financial analysis have been discussed in detail with the help of sufficient numerical examples. It also contains the administrative aspects of capital budgeting and issues involved in project review. Most importantly the book includes several chapter-end problems and questions to test students’ understanding of the subject. The main thrust of the book has been to bring home the concept clearly in the minds of readers.