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Author : Jerry D. Tate
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 28 pages
File Size : 40,9 Mb
Release : 1964
Category : Electronic
ISBN : IND:30000090361720
Author : Anonim
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 2194 pages
File Size : 43,9 Mb
Release : 1964
Category : Electronic
ISBN : PSU:000047866263
Author : Anonim
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 932 pages
File Size : 51,5 Mb
Release : 1964
Category : Aeronautics
ISBN : MINN:31951000607641Y
Author : United States. 6570th Aerospace Medical Research Laboratories. Behavioral Sciences Laboratories
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 152 pages
File Size : 47,7 Mb
Release : 1966
Category : Aviation medicine
ISBN : IND:30000099360418
Author : Anonim
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 218 pages
File Size : 52,6 Mb
Release : 1964
Category : Industries
ISBN : OSU:32435051669968
Author : National Research Council,Division on Earth and Life Studies,Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate,Committee on Estimating and Communicating Uncertainty in Weather and Climate Forecasts
Publisher : National Academies Press
Page : 124 pages
File Size : 52,9 Mb
Release : 2006-10-09
Category : Science
ISBN : 9780309180535
Uncertainty is a fundamental characteristic of weather, seasonal climate, and hydrological prediction, and no forecast is complete without a description of its uncertainty. Effective communication of uncertainty helps people better understand the likelihood of a particular event and improves their ability to make decisions based on the forecast. Nonetheless, for decades, users of these forecasts have been conditioned to receive incomplete information about uncertainty. They have become used to single-valued (deterministic) forecasts (e.g., "the high temperature will be 70 degrees Farenheit 9 days from now") and applied their own experience in determining how much confidence to place in the forecast. Most forecast products from the public and private sectors, including those from the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration's National Weather Service, continue this deterministic legacy. Fortunately, the National Weather Service and others in the prediction community have recognized the need to view uncertainty as a fundamental part of forecasts. By partnering with other segments of the community to understand user needs, generate relevant and rich informational products, and utilize effective communication vehicles, the National Weather Service can take a leading role in the transition to widespread, effective incorporation of uncertainty information into predictions. "Completing the Forecast" makes recommendations to the National Weather Service and the broader prediction community on how to make this transition.
Author : Aerospace Medical Research Laboratories (U.S.). Behavioral Sciences Laboratory
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 92 pages
File Size : 52,9 Mb
Release : 1946
Category : Aviation medicine
ISBN : OSU:32435019832732
Author : Lavon E. Trygg
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 100 pages
File Size : 51,9 Mb
Release : 1964
Category : Aviation medicine
ISBN : UIUC:30112097142324
Author : Anonim
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 1420 pages
File Size : 46,7 Mb
Release : 1964
Category : Research
ISBN : STANFORD:36105013143917
Author : Joe Lorkowski,Vladik Kreinovich
Publisher : Springer
Page : 164 pages
File Size : 40,5 Mb
Release : 2017-07-01
Category : Technology & Engineering
ISBN : 9783319622149
This book addresses an intriguing question: are our decisions rational? It explains seemingly irrational human decision-making behavior by taking into account our limited ability to process information. It also shows with several examples that optimization under granularity restriction leads to observed human decision-making. Drawing on the Nobel-prize-winning studies by Kahneman and Tversky, researchers have found many examples of seemingly irrational decisions: e.g., we overestimate the probability of rare events. Our explanation is that since human abilities to process information are limited, we operate not with the exact values of relevant quantities, but with “granules” that contain these values. We show that optimization under such granularity indeed leads to observed human behavior. In particular, for the first time, we explain the mysterious empirical dependence of betting odds on actual probabilities. This book can be recommended to all students interested in human decision-making, to researchers whose work involves human decisions, and to practitioners who design and employ systems involving human decision-making —so that they can better utilize our ability to make decisions under uncertainty.
Author : Daniel Kahneman,Paul Slovic,Amos Tversky
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
Page : 574 pages
File Size : 47,5 Mb
Release : 1982-04-30
Category : Psychology
ISBN : 0521284147
Thirty-five chapters describe various judgmental heuristics and the biases they produce, not only in laboratory experiments, but in important social, medical, and political situations as well. Most review multiple studies or entire subareas rather than describing single experimental studies.
Author : Pavlov, Yuri P.
Publisher : IGI Global
Page : 280 pages
File Size : 45,5 Mb
Release : 2013-02-28
Category : Mathematics
ISBN : 9781466629684
In order to ensure the criteria for monitoring and managing the various problems and design for decision control, a mathematical description of exact human knowledge is required for the management of adaptive and complex systems. Decision Control, Management, and Support in Adaptive and Complex Systems: Quantitative Models presents an application and demonstration of a new mathematical technique for descriptions of complex systems. This comprehensive collection contains scientific results in the field of contemporary approaches to adaptive decision making that is essential for researchers, scholars, and students alike.
Author : Anonim
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 560 pages
File Size : 49,5 Mb
Release : 1964
Category : Aviation medicine
ISBN : PSU:000003343982
A selection of annotated references to unclassified reports and journal articles that were introduced into the NASA scientific and technical information system and announced in Scientific and technical aerospace reports (STAR) and International aerospace abstracts (IAA)
Author : Anonim
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 624 pages
File Size : 47,8 Mb
Release : 1960
Category : Human engineering
ISBN : STANFORD:36105116559118
Author : Yao-Chu Chiu,Ching-Hung Lin,Jong-Tsun Huang
Publisher : Frontiers Media SA
Page : 225 pages
File Size : 54,5 Mb
Release : 2022-06-27
Category : Science
ISBN : 9782889743827
