The 2007 Iran Nuclear Estimate Revisited

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The 2007 Iran Nuclear Estimate Revisited

Robert Jervis,James J. Wirtz
The 2007 Iran Nuclear Estimate Revisited Book PDF

Author : Robert Jervis,James J. Wirtz
Publisher : Routledge
Page : 186 pages
File Size : 48,5 Mb
Release : 2022-05-12
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 9781000588200

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The 2007 Iran Nuclear Estimate Revisited by Robert Jervis,James J. Wirtz Pdf

The 2007 Iran Nuclear Estimate Revisited: Anatomy of a Controversy explores both the contents and reaction to the U.S. intelligence community’s (IC) National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) that Iran had suspended its clandestine program to develop nuclear weapons. The volume offers insights into the art of intelligence analysis and the issues encountered when estimates run counter to policy or partisan preferences. In November 2007, the U.S. National Intelligence Council issued an NIE entitled Iran’s Nuclear Intentions and Capabilities that contained a surprising finding. Analysts concluded that Iran had probably suspended its clandestine effort to develop a nuclear weapon. This assessment created a political firestorm, despite the fact that analysts went to great lengths to assess the accuracy of their sources and to offer nuanced judgments about the complex issues surrounding Iran’s civilian and military nuclear programs. In this edited volume, former intelligence professionals and leading intelligence scholars describe and assess the factors that shaped this NIE and the course of events that sparked an international controversy. These chapters make a valuable contribution to the understanding of the state of the art when it comes to intelligence analysis and the challenges that emerge when intelligence estimates address significant foreign and defence policy issues and on-going political debates. One of the chapters in this volume was originally published in the book titled, Routledge Companion to Intelligence Studies, edited by Robert Dover, Michael Goodman, Claudia Hillebrand. Other chapters were originally published in the journals Intelligence and National Security and Comparative Strategy.

The 2007 Iran Nuclear Estimate Revisited

Robert Jervis,James J. Wirtz
The 2007 Iran Nuclear Estimate Revisited Book PDF

Author : Robert Jervis,James J. Wirtz
Publisher : Routledge
Page : 171 pages
File Size : 55,7 Mb
Release : 2022-05-11
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 9781000588187

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The 2007 Iran Nuclear Estimate Revisited by Robert Jervis,James J. Wirtz Pdf

The 2007 Iran Nuclear Estimate Revisited: Anatomy of a Controversy explores both the contents and reaction to the U.S. intelligence community’s (IC) National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) that Iran had suspended its clandestine program to develop nuclear weapons. The volume offers insights into the art of intelligence analysis and the issues encountered when estimates run counter to policy or partisan preferences. In November 2007, the U.S. National Intelligence Council issued an NIE entitled Iran’s Nuclear Intentions and Capabilities that contained a surprising finding. Analysts concluded that Iran had probably suspended its clandestine effort to develop a nuclear weapon. This assessment created a political firestorm, despite the fact that analysts went to great lengths to assess the accuracy of their sources and to offer nuanced judgments about the complex issues surrounding Iran’s civilian and military nuclear programs. In this edited volume, former intelligence professionals and leading intelligence scholars describe and assess the factors that shaped this NIE and the course of events that sparked an international controversy. These chapters make a valuable contribution to the understanding of the state of the art when it comes to intelligence analysis and the challenges that emerge when intelligence estimates address significant foreign and defence policy issues and on-going political debates. One of the chapters in this volume was originally published in the book titled, Routledge Companion to Intelligence Studies, edited by Robert Dover, Michael Goodman, Claudia Hillebrand. Other chapters were originally published in the journals Intelligence and National Security and Comparative Strategy.

The U.S. Navy and the Rise of Great Power Competition

James J. Wirtz,Jeffrey E. E. Kline,James A. A. Russell
The U S Navy and the Rise of Great Power Competition Book PDF

Author : James J. Wirtz,Jeffrey E. E. Kline,James A. A. Russell
Publisher : Taylor & Francis
Page : 166 pages
File Size : 49,7 Mb
Release : 2024-01-23
Category : History
ISBN : 9781003837206

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The U.S. Navy and the Rise of Great Power Competition by James J. Wirtz,Jeffrey E. E. Kline,James A. A. Russell Pdf

This volume describes how technological and geo-political trends are rapidly transforming maritime affairs. A mix of original and previously published material, this volume describes how the 21st-century great power competition is changing the face of naval operations in general, and U.S. Navy operations in the Western Pacific in particular. The rise of an assertive China and its new anti-access and area-denial capabilities threaten the aircraft carrier-based maritime dominance of the U.S. Navy. Military and political trends in the Western Pacific and beyond suggest that the world is encountering a pivotal moment when existing weapons, tactics, and operations might be rendered obsolete by techno-strategic change. This volume considers these developments from three perspectives by describing: (1) the techno-strategic setting; (2) the institutional constraints that impede the ability of the U.S. Navy to respond to these changes; and (3) a new approach to naval force planning and strategy to cope with these developments. The volume culminates in a discussion of sophisticated strategies and operational concepts that position the U.S. Navy and its maritime allies and partners to prevail in today’s techno-strategic churn. This book will be of much interest to students of naval policy, strategic studies, Asia-Pacific politics, and International Relations.

Iran, Israel, and the United States

Ofira Seliktar,Farhad Rezaei
Iran Israel and the United States Book PDF

Author : Ofira Seliktar,Farhad Rezaei
Publisher : Rowman & Littlefield
Page : 284 pages
File Size : 46,5 Mb
Release : 2018-06-20
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 9781498569767

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Iran, Israel, and the United States by Ofira Seliktar,Farhad Rezaei Pdf

This book analyzes the process of evaluating Iran’s nuclear project and efforts to roll it back, resulting in the 2015 nuclear agreement. To highlight the technological problems and the politicization involved in the process, this study uses real-time comparison of developments in Iran and the perception of Israel in the United States.

Nuclear France

Benoît Pelopidas
Nuclear France Book PDF

Author : Benoît Pelopidas
Publisher : Taylor & Francis
Page : 203 pages
File Size : 44,5 Mb
Release : 2024-01-18
Category : History
ISBN : 9781003836179

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Nuclear France by Benoît Pelopidas Pdf

This book offers the first non-official history of French nuclear policies which goes beyond the divide between nuclear weapons and nuclear energy policies. It addresses the sizing of France’s nuclear forces, technological assistance to countries with nuclear weapons programs, uranium prospection, nuclear testing, its health effects and protests against it, as well as plans to prevent and manage accidents in nuclear power plants. It is based on new questions and new sources from France and abroad. The chapters in this volume show how independent and interdisciplinary scholarship free from conflicts of interests can uniquely advance our understanding of nuclear history and politics. This is the case because it does not treat the categories and judgments of official discourse as neutral starting points of the analysis. This volume is based on untapped primary sources from France, the UK, the US, India, South Africa and Iran, on a new assessment of the health consequences of French nuclear testing in Polynesia thanks to a modern atmospheric particle transport code coupled with historical weather data, open-source information about radioactive debris (“mushroom”) clouds, as well as data on the composition and particle sizes of the fallout; and on new survey data about French knowledge of and attitudes towards nuclear weapons and nuclear energy. They show notably that the first generation of French nuclear forces lacked technical credibility despite reliance on outside help. Several French officials knew this, as did France's allies and adversaries. Moreover, French strategic collaborations associated to nuclear programs extended to India and South Africa; nuclear safety regulations changed fundamentally after the Cold War, and approximately 110,000 people, i.e. 90% of the French Polynesian population in the 1970s, could have received doses that would qualify them for compensation according to French law. The volume will be of interest to scholars and students of history, politics, international relations, military history, war studies, conflict and global governance. Most of the chapters in this book were originally published as a special issue in Cold War History. A few chapters were first published in the Nonproliferation Review, Diplomacy & Statecraft and Science & Global Security.

Living on the Edge

Wyn Bowen,Matthew Moran,Dina Esfandiary
Living on the Edge Book PDF

Author : Wyn Bowen,Matthew Moran,Dina Esfandiary
Publisher : Springer
Page : 189 pages
File Size : 55,9 Mb
Release : 2016-06-08
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 9781137273093

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Living on the Edge by Wyn Bowen,Matthew Moran,Dina Esfandiary Pdf

In this book, the authors explore the controversial Iranian nuclear programme through the conceptual lens of nuclear hedging. In 2002, revelations regarding undeclared nuclear facilities thrust Iran’s nuclear activities under the spotlight and prompted concerns that Tehran was pursuing nuclear weapons. Iran has always denied nuclear weapons aspirations, yet it cannot be disputed that the Islamic Republic has gone well beyond what is required for a civil nuclear programme based on energy production and scientific research. What, then, is the nature and significance of Iran's nuclear behaviour? Does it form part of a coherent strategy? What can Iran's actions in the nuclear field tell us about Tehran's intentions? And what does the Iranian case teach us about proliferation behaviour more generally? This book addresses these questions by exploring the nature of nuclear hedging and how this approach might be identified, before applying this logic to the Iranian case. It provides fresh insights into the inherently opaque area of nuclear proliferation and a more nuanced interpretation of the Iranian nuclear challenge.

Iran's Nuclear Programme

Joachim Krause
Iran s Nuclear Programme Book PDF

Author : Joachim Krause
Publisher : Routledge
Page : 242 pages
File Size : 52,6 Mb
Release : 2012-02-20
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 9781136585463

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Iran's Nuclear Programme by Joachim Krause Pdf

This book examines the strategic implications of Iran’s nuclear programme, providing an inventory of the negotiations and a discussion of possible solutions to this pressing international security issue. The Islamic Republic of Iran’s nuclear programme has been the cause of one of the most extended international crises of the past decade. Multilateral institutions have been unable to resolve the issue, which has the potential to derail the global nuclear non-proliferation regime. Recent failures of diplomatic offers for an extended Iran-EU cooperation and projected US arms sales to Iran’s neighbours suggest an imminent escalation of the issue, which has been simmering since first reports about Iranian nuclear fuel-enrichment activities emerged in 2002. Since then, the topic has been the subject of intense media coverage as well as academic and diplomatic debate. This volume brings together analysts and authors with diverse backgrounds, including international diplomats formerly involved in negotiations with Iranian officials. The various chapters bring together different perspectives and empirical analyses, and include detailed assessments of both US and European efforts in diplomatic relations with Iran, as well as of the domestic politics in Iran itself. This book will be of interest to students of Iranian politics, Middle Eastern politics, strategic studies, nuclear proliferation, international security, foreign policy and IR in general.

Enemies of Intelligence

Richard K. Betts
Enemies of Intelligence Book PDF

Author : Richard K. Betts
Publisher : Columbia University Press
Page : 266 pages
File Size : 51,8 Mb
Release : 2009
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 9780231138895

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Enemies of Intelligence by Richard K. Betts Pdf

Combining study with experience, Richard K. Betts draws on three decades of work within the U.S. intelligence community to illuminate the paradoxes and problems that frustrate the intelligence process. Unlike America's efforts to improve its defenses against natural disasters, strengthening its strategic assessment capabilities means outwitting crafty enemies who operate beyond U.S. borders. It also requires looking within to the organizational and political dynamics of collecting information and determining its implications for policy. Betts outlines key strategies for better intelligence gathering and assessment. He describes how fixing one malfunction can create another; in what ways expertise can be both a vital tool and a source of error and misjudgment; the pitfalls of always striving for accuracy in intelligence, which in some cases can render it worthless; the danger, though unavoidable, of "politicizing" intelligence; and the issue of secrecy--when it is excessive, when it is insufficient, and how limiting privacy can in fact protect civil liberties. Grounding his arguments in extensive theory and policy analysis, Betts takes a comprehensive and realistic look at the convergence of knowledge and power in facing the intelligence challenges of the twenty-first century.

Iran's Nuclear Program and International Law

Daniel Joyner
Iran s Nuclear Program and International Law Book PDF

Author : Daniel Joyner
Publisher : Oxford University Press
Page : 281 pages
File Size : 51,8 Mb
Release : 2016
Category : Law
ISBN : 9780190635718

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Iran's Nuclear Program and International Law by Daniel Joyner Pdf

This book provides an international legal analysis of the most important questions regarding Iran's nuclear program since 2002. Setting these legal questions in their historical and diplomatic context, this book aims to clarify how the relevant sources of international law - including primarily the 1968 Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty and IAEA treaty law - should be properly applied in the context of the Iran case. It provides an instructional case study of the application of these sources of international law, the lessons which can be applied to inform both the on-going legal and diplomatic dynamics surrounding the Iran nuclear dispute itself, as well as similar future cases. Some questions raised regard the watershed diplomatic accord reached between Iran and Western states in July, 2015, known as the Joint Comprehensive Program of Action. The answers will be of interests to diplomats and academics, as well as to anyone who is interested in understanding international law's application to this sensitive dispute in international relations.

Beyond Cairo

Darrell Ezell
Beyond Cairo Book PDF

Author : Darrell Ezell
Publisher : Springer
Page : 357 pages
File Size : 45,7 Mb
Release : 2012-12-28
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 9781137048493

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Beyond Cairo by Darrell Ezell Pdf

The US's once-enthusiastic commitment to restore trustworthy relations with the Muslim world has dwindled considerably since Obama's 2009 Cairo speech. This book tackles Washington's lagging engagement with the Muslim world and provides a roadmap for how the US can use public diplomacy to re-engage it.

Chaos Reconsidered

Robert Jervis,Stacie Goddard,Diane N. Labrosse,Joshua Rovner
Chaos Reconsidered Book PDF

Author : Robert Jervis,Stacie Goddard,Diane N. Labrosse,Joshua Rovner
Publisher : Columbia University Press
Page : 361 pages
File Size : 48,5 Mb
Release : 2023-07-04
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 9780231556262

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Chaos Reconsidered by Robert Jervis,Stacie Goddard,Diane N. Labrosse,Joshua Rovner Pdf

The shock of Donald Trump’s election caused many observers to ask whether the liberal international order—the system of institutions and norms established after World War II—was coming to an end. The victory of Joe Biden, a committed institutionalist, suggested that the liberal order would endure. Even so, important questions remained: Was Trump an aberration? Is Biden struggling in vain against irreparable changes in international politics? What does the future hold for the international order? The essays in Chaos Reconsidered answer those questions. Leading scholars assess the domestic and global effects of the Trump and Biden presidencies. The historians put the Trump years and Biden’s victory in historical context. Regional specialists evaluate U.S. diplomacy in Asia, Europe, Africa, the Middle East, and Latin America. Others foreground topics such as global right-wing populism, the COVID-19 pandemic, racial inequality, and environmental degradation. International relations theorists reconsider the nature of international politics, pointing to deficiencies in traditional IR methods for explaining world events and Trump’s presidency in particular. Together, these experts provide a comprehensive analysis of the state of U.S. alliances and partnerships, the durability of the liberal international order, the standing and reputation of the United States as a global leader, the implications of China’s assertiveness and Russia’s aggression, and the prospects for the Biden administration and its successors.

The Persistent Advocate and the Use of Force

Dr Christian Henderson
The Persistent Advocate and the Use of Force Book PDF

Author : Dr Christian Henderson
Publisher : Ashgate Publishing, Ltd.
Page : 336 pages
File Size : 45,8 Mb
Release : 2013-02-28
Category : Law
ISBN : 9781409497196

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The Persistent Advocate and the Use of Force by Dr Christian Henderson Pdf

This book provides a comprehensive, dispassionate empirical analysis and assessment of the discernible impact that the US has had upon the jus ad bellum in the post-Cold War era. The work focuses on the substantive areas of the jus ad bellum with which the US has most often and significantly engaged with through either its actions, justifications for actions, or adopted policies. In doing so, it draws upon the theory of interpretive communities as its framework of analysis in order to gauge any impact upon this fundamental area of international law. The Persistent Advocate and the Use of Force provides a much needed examination of one of the most controversial issues of international law in recent times whilst, on a more general level, offering a timely defence of the robustness of the jus ad bellum to the practice of powerful states.

Truth to Power

Robert Hutchings,Gregory F. Treverton
Truth to Power Book PDF

Author : Robert Hutchings,Gregory F. Treverton
Publisher : Oxford University Press, USA
Page : 257 pages
File Size : 55,5 Mb
Release : 2019-06-20
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 9780190940003

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Truth to Power by Robert Hutchings,Gregory F. Treverton Pdf

Truth to Power, the first-ever history of the U.S. National Intelligence Council (NIC), is told through the reflections of its eight Chairs in the period from the end of the Cold War until 2017. Co-editors Robert Hutchings and Gregory Treverton add a substantial introduction placing the NIC in its historical context going all the way back to the Board of National Estimates in the 1940s, as well as a concluding chapter that highlights key themes and judgments. This historic mission of this remarkable but little-known organization, now forty years old, is strategic intelligence assessment in service of senior American foreign policymakers. Its signature inside products, National Intelligence Estimates, are now accompanied by the NIC's every-four-years Global Trends. Unclassified, Global Trends has become a noted NIC brand, its release awaited by officials, academics and private sector managers around the world. Truth to Power tracks the NIC's role in providing strategic analysis on every major foreign policy issue confronting the United States during this consequential period. Chapters provide insider insights on the Balkan wars of the 1990s, the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001, the invasion and occupation of Iraq in 2003, the nuclear weapons programs in Iran and North Korea, upheaval in the Middle East including the rise and fall of the Islamic State, the rise of China, and the Russia's turn toward aggression under Vladimir Putin. The book also assesses the NIC's newly expanded role in direct support to meetings of the National Security Council as well as its longstanding role in producing longer-range strategic intelligence.

The Inheritance

David E. Sanger
The Inheritance Book PDF

Author : David E. Sanger
Publisher : Crown
Page : 530 pages
File Size : 41,6 Mb
Release : 2009-01-13
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 9780307451675

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The Inheritance by David E. Sanger Pdf

Readers of The New York Times know David Sanger as one of the most trusted correspondents in Washington, one to whom presidents, secretaries of state, and foreign leaders talk with unusual candor. Now, with a historian’s sweep and an insider’s eye for telling detail, Sanger delivers an urgent intelligence briefing on the world America faces. In a riveting narrative, The Inheritance describes the huge costs of distraction and lost opportunities at home and abroad as Iraq soaked up manpower, money, and intelligence capabilities. The 2008 market collapse further undermined American leadership, leaving the new president with a set of challenges unparalleled since Franklin D. Roosevelt entered the Oval Office. Sanger takes readers into the White House Situation Room to reveal how Washington penetrated Tehran’s nuclear secrets, leading President Bush, in his last year, to secretly step up covert actions in a desperate effort to delay an Iranian bomb. Meanwhile, his intelligence chiefs made repeated secret missions to Pakistan as they tried to stem a growing insurgency and cope with an ally who was also aiding the enemy–while receiving billions in American military aid. Now the new president faces critical choices: Is it better to learn to live with a nuclear Iran or risk overt or covert confrontation? Is it worth sending U.S. forces deep into Pakistani territory at the risk of undermining an unstable Pakistani government sitting on a nuclear arsenal? It is a race against time and against a new effort by Islamic extremists–never before disclosed–to quietly infiltrate Pakistan’s nuclear weapons program. “Bush wrote a lot of checks,” one senior intelligence official told Sanger, “that the next president is going to have to cash.” The Inheritance takes readers to Afghanistan, where Bush never delivered on his promises for a Marshall Plan to rebuild the country, paving the way for the Taliban’s return. It examines the chilling calculus of North Korea’s Kim Jong-Il, who built actual weapons of mass destruction in the same months that the Bush administration pursued phantoms in Iraq, then sold his nuclear technology in the Middle East in an operation the American intelligence apparatus missed. And it explores how China became one of the real winners of the Iraq war, using the past eight years to expand its influence in Asia, and lock up oil supplies in Africa while Washington was bogged down in the Middle East. Yet Sanger, a former foreign correspondent in Asia, sees enormous potential for the next administration to forge a partnership with Beijing on energy and the environment. At once a secret history of our foreign policy misadventures and a lucid explanation of the opportunities they create, The Inheritance is vital reading for anyone trying to understand the extraordinary challenges that lie ahead.

Theory of Unipolar Politics

Nuno P. Monteiro
Theory of Unipolar Politics Book PDF

Author : Nuno P. Monteiro
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
Page : 295 pages
File Size : 51,5 Mb
Release : 2014-04-21
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 9781107061804

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Theory of Unipolar Politics by Nuno P. Monteiro Pdf

Theory of Unipolar Politics studies the durability and peacefulness of the post-Cold War international system.