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The 2012 French Presidential Elections by J. Evans,G. Ivaldi Pdf
Was the victory of François Hollande, the Socialist challenger to Nicolas Sarkozy, inevitable in the 2012 French Presidential elections? This book argues that a combination of economic downturn, policy choices and personal unpopularity meant that the Right-wing incumbent faced an almost impossible task in holding onto power for another five years.
This edited volume is based on a highly original survey carried out between November 2011 and June 2012 among a panel of 6,000 voters. The panel was interviewed on 12 separate occasions about how and why they made their voting choices. The book focuses on how electoral choices are made and how these choices evolve during the short time-span of an election campaign. The analysis of the 2012 electoral result shows more than ever that voting choices are the fruit of interweaving timelines: the long term period that characterizes voters’ predispositions and their predictions of a possible scenario; the shorter period of time during which the campaign unfolds where those predispositions are either confirmed, called into question, or undone; and the moment when the final choice is made. This is the first time the electoral decision-making process during a French Presidential election has been systematically studied.
French Presidential Elections by M. Lewis-Beck,R. Nadeau,É. Bélanger Pdf
An original and comprehensive study of the sociological and psychological forces driving individual choices in French Presidential elections. Based on a unique comparative analysis of four French presidential contests over the last two decades, this book presents a rigorous examination of long-term and short-term voter motivations.
France Votes: The Election of François Hollande by I. Wall Pdf
France Votes analyzes the French elections of 2012 in the context of a France and Europe in crisis. With regard to the economy, Irwin Wall describes the ways in which the country's adherence to the common currency in the Eurozone has stripped France of its freedom of manouver. France Votes shows how a European-wide economic crisis was reflected in political crisis at home and the rise of new political extremism combined with mass disaffection from politics altogether. The result of all of this, posits Wall, is that France has become a no-choice democracy.
France After 2012 by Gabriel Goodliffe,Riccardo Brizzi Pdf
In May 2012, French voters rejected the liberalizing policies of Nicolas Sarkozy and elected his opponent, the Socialist François Hollande, president. In June 2012, the incumbent president’s center-right UMP party was swept out of government in the ensuing parliamentary elections, giving way to a new center-left majority in the National Assembly. This book analyzes the contexts and results of the 2012 presidential and parliamentary elections in France. It assesses the legacies of the Sarkozy presidency that informed the 2012 electoral campaigns, scrutinizing his domestic social and economic policies on the one hand and European and foreign policies on the other. In turn, the elections’ outcomes are also analyzed from the standpoint of various political parties and other institutional interests in France, and the results are situated within the broader run of French political history. Finally, the book examines the principal challenges facing the Hollande administration and new government of Prime Minister Jean-Marc Ayrault, and assesses how effectively these have been met during their first year in office.
The 2017 French Presidential Elections by Jocelyn Evans,Gilles Ivaldi Pdf
Emmanuel Macron’s victory in the 2017 presidential elections represents one of the most important disruptions to French political life since the establishment of the Fifth Republic. This book analyses the political opportunities enabling a neophyte to conquer the Elysée, and the conditions leading to the unprecedented presidential runoff between this centrist EU enthusiast and pro-globalization candidate and the nationalistic/populist alternative embodied by Marine Le Pen. The book begins by considering trends in party competition and presidentialism in modern France, notably presidential primaries and their impact on party competition. It then moves to considering the role traditional explanatory factors in elections, namely policies and voter profiles, played in the result. Finally, it examines the dynamics of President Macron’s success in the legislatives, and how he dominated the traditional party blocs. This book will appeal to students of French politics as well as those interested in electoral behaviour and European political systems.
Drawing on theories of neo-institutionalism to show how institutions shape dissident behaviour, Boucek develops new ways of measuring factionalism and explains its effects on office tenure. In each of the four cases - from Britain, Canada, Italy and Japan - intra-party dynamics are analyzed through times series and rational choice tools.
Dominant Political Parties and Democracy by Matthijs Bogaards,Françoise Boucek Pdf
This book examines dominant parties in both established democracies and new democracies and explores the relationship between dominant parties and the democratic process. Bridging existing literatures, the authors analyse dominant parties at national and sub-national, district and intra-party levels and take a fresh look at some of the classic cases of one-party dominance. The book also features methodological advances in the study of dominant parties through contributions that develop new ways of conceptualizing and measuring one-party dominance. Combining theoretical and empirical research and bringing together leading experts in the field - including Hermann Giliomee and Kenneth Greene - this book features comparisons and case studies on Japan, Canada, Germany, Mexico, Italy, France and South Africa. This book will be of interest to students and scholars of political science, democracy studies, comparative politics, party politics and international studies specialists.
The Front National in France by Daniel Stockemer Pdf
In light of the transformation of the Front National (FN) to a major player in French politics, this book examines how the unprecedented boost in positive opinions towards the FN as well as its increasing membership and electoral success have been possible. Using a supply and demand framework and a mixed methods approach, the author investigates the development of the FN and compares the “new” FN under Marine Le Pen with the “old” FN under Jean-Marie Le Pen across 4 dimensions: (1) the party’s ideology, (2) the leadership styles of the two leaders including the composition of the party elites and the leaders’/ parties’ relationship with the media, (3) the party members and (4) the party voters. It appeals to scholars interested in the study of radical right-wing movements and parties as well as to anybody interested in French politics.
As well as providing a detailed biography of Le Pen, the leader of the National Front in France, this book also explores the wider development of the extreme right as a significant intellectual and political force within France.
60 years of France and Europe by Helen Drake,Chris Reynolds Pdf
2017 marked the 60th anniversary of the signing of the Treaty of Rome and the starting point for today’s European Union. Since then, the project has indisputably come a very long way and has undergone major changes in direction. However, one constant throughout has been the central role played by France. This important milestone is used to take stock of the relationship between France and Europe. The enclosed chapters cover a broad range of issues relating to the past, present and future, investigating Franco-European relations via the optic of a wide range of debates. These include: the issue of Europe in French presidential elections the impact of the European question on the development of the two major political forces (of left and right) in France, and its role in their internal tensions; Europe as a key consideration in French macro-economic policy France's Algerian question and missed opportunities to extend 'Europe' to its North African neighbour; Charles de Gaulle’s role in defining the EU’s structures for transnational democratic politics. Sixty years on: France and Europe from the Treaty of Rome to the 2017 elections assess how and why Europe matters in our understanding of contemporary France, and contributes to the important and ongoing research agendas for the study of France and the European Union. The chapters were originally published in a special issue of Modern & Contemporary France.
The Presidents of the French Fifth Republic by D. Bell,J. Gaffney Pdf
In the French Republic political leadership is normally provided by the presidency, albeit from a very narrow constitutional base. This volume examines the strengths and weaknesses of that leadership as well as the way that executive power has been established in the republican context.
Politics and Big Data by Andrea Ceron,Luigi Curini,Stefano Maria Iacus Pdf
The importance of social media as a way to monitor an electoral campaign is well established. Day-by-day, hour-by-hour evaluation of the evolution of online ideas and opinion allows observers and scholars to monitor trends and momentum in public opinion well before traditional polls. However, there are difficulties in recording and analyzing often brief, unverified comments while the unequal age, gender, social and racial representation among social media users can produce inaccurate forecasts of final polls. Reviewing the different techniques employed using social media to nowcast and forecast elections, this book assesses its achievements and limitations while presenting a new technique of "sentiment analysis" to improve upon them. The authors carry out a meta-analysis of the existing literature to show the conditions under which social media-based electoral forecasts prove most accurate while new case studies from France, the United States and Italy demonstrate how much more accurate "sentiment analysis" can prove.
The Mainstreaming of the Extreme Right in France and Australia by Aurélien Mondon Pdf
What has led to the recent revival of the extreme right in Western democracies such as France and Australia, and what impact has their success had on mainstream politics? What shift has taken place in recent times as ideas and groups that once were considered marginal and undemocratic have come to play an important part in mainstream politics? This book addresses these key questions by examining the resurgence of the extreme right in France and Australia and explores the history of right-wing groups and their relationship with and impact on mainstream politics. This compelling study on the rise of right-wing parties in two countries with different histories but similar experiences of how mainstream parties campaigned and reacted to the changing political landscape presents a fascinating comparison of the history and political impact of ethno-exclusivist and right-wing populist politics in liberal democracies. A detailed and thorough comparative analysis of parties such as the Front National and One Nation, and the mainstreaming of their discourse by prominent leaders like John Howard and Nicolas Sarkozy, offers new insights on the rise of the contemporary extreme right and how these groups and the ideas they represent have become increasingly mainstream, and perhaps even hegemonic in the current political state.
