The Dynamic Decision Maker Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle version is available to download in english. Read online anytime anywhere directly from your device. Click on the download button below to get a free pdf file of The Dynamic Decision Maker book. This book definitely worth reading, it is an incredibly well-written.
The Dynamic Decision Maker by Michael J. Driver,Kenneth R. Brousseau,Phillip L. Hunsaker Pdf
The insights offered in this book are intended to guarantee the reader a more successful career. It is written especially for managers and executives whose jobs require managing people successfully, but it is also written for anyone who must make decisions that involve other people. The authors discuss the decision styles and habits that people form and how to change decision-making habits where necessary. The models and techniques for decision making presented here have been used throughout the world in all kinds of businesses and government agencies. Decision style concepts can benefit anyone, from a new management trainee or MBA student to the CEO of a large firm.
Practical Modelling of Dynamic Decision Making by Rick Evertsz,John Thangarajah,Thanh Ly Pdf
This book presents TDF (Tactics Development Framework), a practical methodology for eliciting and engineering models of expert decision-making in dynamic domains. The authors apply the BDI (Beliefs, Desires, Intentions) paradigm to the elicitation and modelling of dynamic decision making expertise, including team behaviour, and map it to a diagrammatic representation that is intuitive to domain experts. The book will be of value to researchers and practitioners engaged in dynamic decision making.
Super Deciders by Claudio Feser,Daniella Laureiro-Martinez,Karolin Frankenberger,Stefan Brusoni Pdf
Dramatically improve the decisions you make every day using insights from the latest neuroscience We make hundreds of decisions daily, from small ones – such as what to wear today and how to drive to work – to big ones – such as the company strategy and whether to launch a restructuring program that may impact thousands of people. In business, studies suggest that company executives spend 40% of their time making decisions and that the effectiveness of their decisions largely drives the results of the companies that they lead. In Super Deciders: The Science and Practice of Making Decisions in Dynamic and Uncertain Times, a team of renown researchers and business advisors deliver an application of the latest advances in neuroscience to effectively making the most difficult decisions, those we make in dynamic environments, in situations of uncertainty when we need to predict outcomes, we’re missing relevant information, time is scarce, and the environment is constantly changing. The book is written in three parts. In the first part, the book offers a practical framework for making effective decisions under uncertainty. In the second part, the book discusses approaches to effectively implement those decisions, thus managing change at every level, from the individual to the organizational. Finally, the book develops suggestions on how leaders can diagnose and improve – in themselves and in the people they lead – the cognitive abilities relevant to decision-making. You’ll also find: An enlightening business narrative detailing the journey of a fictional leader of an international travel operator named Inuk. Six cases that put you into real-life situations of making difficult decisions and that help you assess your decision-making effectiveness. An accessible and fun introduction to the neuroscience of decision-making. Ideal for managers, executives, directors, and other business leaders, Super Deciders is a can’t-miss decision-making playbook that you’ve been waiting for.
Complex Decision Making by Hassan Qudrat-Ullah,J. Michael Spector,Paal Davidsen Pdf
Today's ever more complex world creates challenges for decision makers. This volume reviews the principles underlying complex decision making, the handling of uncertainties in dynamic environments, and the various modeling approaches. Beginning with a discussion of the underlying concepts, theories and empirical evidence, the book gives you a range of practical tools and techniques for decision making in complex environments and systems.
Author : Stephen J. Hoch,Howard C. Kunreuther Publisher : John Wiley & Sons Page : 356 pages File Size : 47,9 Mb Release : 2004-08-20 Category : Business & Economics ISBN : 0471689386
Wharton on Making Decisions by Stephen J. Hoch,Howard C. Kunreuther Pdf
Perspectives from leaders in decision science at Wharton Organized in part through Wharton's Risk Management and Decision Processes Center, the book assembles leading researchers from Wharton's business faculty who demonstrate how to apply the latest approaches in decision-making from four perspectives: personal, managerial, negotiator, and consumer. Each chapter describes how decisions are actually made, presents the ideal scenario, and then provides practical suggestions for improvement. The subjects range from when consumers will choose variety, integrating intuition into decisions, and applying game theory and strategic decisions, to decision factors in negotiations and how choices are made about insurance and health care.
Author : John W. Payne,James R. Bettman,Eric J. Johnson Publisher : Cambridge University Press Page : 352 pages File Size : 46,7 Mb Release : 1993-05-28 Category : Education ISBN : 0521425263
The Adaptive Decision Maker by John W. Payne,James R. Bettman,Eric J. Johnson Pdf
The Adaptive Decision Maker argues that people use a variety of strategies to make judgments and choices. The authors introduce a model that shows how decision makers balance effort and accuracy considerations and predicts which strategy a person will use in a given situation. A series of experiments testing the model are presented, and the authors analyse how the model can lead to improved decisions and opportunities for further research.
Efficiency versus Sustainability in Dynamic Decision Making by Bodo Glaser Pdf
To all who taught me, and to all who will. Over the past fifteen years the notions of efficiency and sustainability have, more than any others, influenced the academic and public discussion concerning the intertemporal allocation of resources, especially as regards the economics of growth and environment. This treatise formally develops and counterposes these notions by means of the construct of a trajectorial objective, which is here developed, along with its implications, as a natural advance upon the classical scalar objective. In the course of this study it becomes clear that efficiency and sustainability are by no means identical, given that efficiency, on the one hand, is the concept for avoiding wasteful behavior, and sustainability, on the other, is the concept for ensuring that certain critical aspiration levels, which usually reflect the wish for survival, are maintained. Nonetheless, contrary to what may be assumed, these two concepts do not generally yield mutually exclusive solutions; in fact, they can be combined to complement each other in the quest for unimprovable long-term solutions which sustain given and necessary aspiration levels. This treatise develops and analyzes dynamic decision models (DDM) with one trajectorial objective according to the methodology of multi criteria decision making (MCDM). Moreover, introducing the method of distance maximization crucially augments MCDM and proves to be invaluable for DDMs in the case of a nonexistent utopia trajectory as well as in the case of sustainability as objective.
Practical Modelling of Dynamic Decision Making by Rick Evertsz,John Thangarajah,Thanh Ly Pdf
This book presents TDF (Tactics Development Framework), a practical methodology for eliciting and engineering models of expert decision-making in dynamic domains. The authors apply the BDI (Beliefs, Desires, Intentions) paradigm to the elicitation and modelling of dynamic decision making expertise, including team behaviour, and map it to a diagrammatic representation that is intuitive to domain experts. The book will be of value to researchers and practitioners engaged in dynamic decision making.
Dynamic Economic Decision Making by John E. Silvia Pdf
A comprehensive analysis of the macroeconomic and financial forces altering the economic landscape Financial decision-making requires one to anticipate how their decision will not only affect their business, but also the economic environment. Unfortunately, all too often, both private and public sector decision-makers view their decisions as one-off responses and fail to see their decisions within the context of an evolving decision-making framework. In Decision-Making in a Dynamic Economic Setting, John Silvia, Chief Economist of Wells Fargo and one of the top 5 economic forecasters according to Bloomberg News and USA Today, skillfully puts this discipline in perspective. Details realistic, decision-making approaches and applications under a broad set of economic scenarios Analyzes monetary policy and addresses the impact of financial regulations Examines business cycles and how to identify economic trends, how to deal with uncertainty and manage risk, the building blocks of growth, and strategies for innovation Decision-Making in a Dynamic Economic Setting details the real-world application of economic principles and financial strategy in making better business decisions.
Complex Decision Making by Hassan Qudrat-Ullah,J. Michael Spector,Paal Davidsen Pdf
Today's ever more complex world creates challenges for decision makers. This volume reviews the principles underlying complex decision making, the handling of uncertainties in dynamic environments, and the various modeling approaches. Beginning with a discussion of the underlying concepts, theories and empirical evidence, the book gives you a range of practical tools and techniques for decision making in complex environments and systems.
Dynamics of decision making: from evidence to preference and belief by Erica Yu,David A. Lagnado Pdf
At the core of the many debates throughout cognitive science concerning how decisions are made are the processes governing the time course of preference formation and decision. From perceptual choices, such as whether the signal on a radar screen indicates an enemy missile or a spot on a CT scan indicates a tumor, to cognitive value-based decisions, such as selecting an agreeable flatmate or deciding the guilt of a defendant, significant and everyday decisions are dynamic over time. Phenomena such as decoy effects, preference reversals and order effects are still puzzling researchers. For example, in a legal context, jurors receive discrete pieces of evidence in sequence, and must integrate these pieces together to reach a singular verdict. From a standard Bayesian viewpoint the order in which people receive the evidence should not influence their final decision, and yet order effects seem a robust empirical phenomena in many decision contexts. Current research on how decisions unfold, especially in a dynamic environment, is advancing our theoretical understanding of decision making. This Research Topic aims to review and further explore the time course of a decision - from how prior beliefs are formed to how those beliefs are used and updated over time, towards the formation of preferences and choices and post-decision processes and effects. Research literatures encompassing varied approaches to the time-scale of decisions will be brought into scope: a) Speeded decisions (and post-decision processes) that require the accumulation of noisy and possibly non-stationary perceptual evidence (e.g., randomly moving dots stimuli), within a few seconds, with or without temporal uncertainty. b) Temporally-extended, value-based decisions that integrate feedback values (e.g., gambling machines) and internally-generated decision criteria (e.g., when one switches attention, selectively, between the various aspects of several choice alternatives). c) Temporally extended, belief-based decisions that build on the integration of evidence, which interacts with the decision maker's belief system, towards the updating of the beliefs and the formation of judgments and preferences (as in the legal context). Research that emphasizes theoretical concerns (including optimality analysis) and mechanisms underlying the decision process, both neural and cognitive, is presented, as well as research that combines experimental and computational levels of analysis.
Leveraging Flexibility by Jochen Gerber,Hanjo Arms,Mathias Wiecher,Christian Danner Pdf
What is the probability of your operations achieving the desired profitability? What role does flexibility play in your business plans? Have you ever considered its value in concrete terms? Being able to react to the unexpected by taking a strategic change of course can prove to be the salvation of a company and its leaders. Flexibility, risk, probability and their interrelated value are the key components of Dynamic Decision Management (DDM), a breakthrough approach to validating your decision making process and ensuring the desired results. Using the DDM approach, the well-known and widely accepted complex methods involving scenario building become obsolete. Why? Because DDM does the unthinkable: It integrates the influence of uncertainty and entrepreneurial flexibility in the strategic decision making process and does so with precision.
