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Practical Modelling of Dynamic Decision Making by Rick Evertsz,John Thangarajah,Thanh Ly Pdf
This book presents TDF (Tactics Development Framework), a practical methodology for eliciting and engineering models of expert decision-making in dynamic domains. The authors apply the BDI (Beliefs, Desires, Intentions) paradigm to the elicitation and modelling of dynamic decision making expertise, including team behaviour, and map it to a diagrammatic representation that is intuitive to domain experts. The book will be of value to researchers and practitioners engaged in dynamic decision making.
Practical Modelling of Dynamic Decision Making by Rick Evertsz,John Thangarajah,Thanh Ly Pdf
This book presents TDF (Tactics Development Framework), a practical methodology for eliciting and engineering models of expert decision-making in dynamic domains. The authors apply the BDI (Beliefs, Desires, Intentions) paradigm to the elicitation and modelling of dynamic decision making expertise, including team behaviour, and map it to a diagrammatic representation that is intuitive to domain experts. The book will be of value to researchers and practitioners engaged in dynamic decision making.
Complex Decision Making by Hassan Qudrat-Ullah,J. Michael Spector,Paal Davidsen Pdf
Today's ever more complex world creates challenges for decision makers. This volume reviews the principles underlying complex decision making, the handling of uncertainties in dynamic environments, and the various modeling approaches. Beginning with a discussion of the underlying concepts, theories and empirical evidence, the book gives you a range of practical tools and techniques for decision making in complex environments and systems.
Complex Decision Making by Hassan Qudrat-Ullah,J. Michael Spector,Paal Davidsen Pdf
Today's ever more complex world creates challenges for decision makers. This volume reviews the principles underlying complex decision making, the handling of uncertainties in dynamic environments, and the various modeling approaches. Beginning with a discussion of the underlying concepts, theories and empirical evidence, the book gives you a range of practical tools and techniques for decision making in complex environments and systems.
The Dynamic Decision Maker by Michael J. Driver,Kenneth R. Brousseau,Phillip L. Hunsaker Pdf
The insights offered in this book are intended to guarantee the reader a more successful career. It is written especially for managers and executives whose jobs require managing people successfully, but it is also written for anyone who must make decisions that involve other people. The authors discuss the decision styles and habits that people form and how to change decision-making habits where necessary. The models and techniques for decision making presented here have been used throughout the world in all kinds of businesses and government agencies. Decision style concepts can benefit anyone, from a new management trainee or MBA student to the CEO of a large firm.
Choice processes appear in all spheres of society. Hitherto ruling paradigms in the modelling of choice problems have presumed a competitive general equi librium which, however, proves insufficient for dynamic processes. This contribution aims at providing a general coherent and closed frame work for the dynamic modelling of decision processes. It was one of my main interests to build a bridge between the pure model building concepts and their practical applications. Therefore all given examples are related to empirical work. Solution algorithms for the estimation of trend parameters as well as the numerical simulation in concrete applications therefore playa central role in this contribution. Friendly relations with a number of colleagues from many universities in Europe, and the U.S. have emerged during the different applications. I wish to thank all of them. The international cooperations were mainly initiated and supported by conferences and workshops organized and financed by the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (lIASA), the Istituto Ricerche Economico-Sociali Del Piemonte (I RES). the Institut National D 'Etudes De'mographiques (I NED), the Centre for Regional Science Research UmeJ. (CERUM) and the Projets de Cooperation et D'Echange avec France (Procop>' Special thanks go to the Volkswagen Stiftung for financial support of this work over the years. Thanks also go in particular to my friend and mentor Prof.W.Weidlich for his encouragement and for the many suggestions he made in fruitful discus sions and common work that have taken place over the years.
The Practice of Enterprise Modeling by Geert Poels,Frederik Gailly,Estefania Serral Asensio,Monique Snoeck Pdf
This volume constitutes the proceedings of the 10th IFIP WG 8.1 Conference on the Practice of Enterprise Modeling held in November 2017 in Leuven, Belgium. The conference was created by the International Federation for Information Processing (IFIP) Working Group 8.1 to offer a forum for knowledge transfer and experience sharing between the academic and practitioner communities. The 20 full papers and 4 short papers accepted were carefully reviewed and selected from 70 submissions. They include research results, practitioner/experience reports and work-in-progress papers and were presented in 8 sessions covering diverse topics related to enterprise modelling and its application in practice.
Decision Making by Fausto Pedro García Márquez,Alberto Pliego Marugán,Mayorkinos Papaelias Pdf
Decision Making is a book where each chapter has been contributed to by a different author(s). The book synthesizes the analytical principles with business practice of Decision Making. Specifically, the book provides an interface between the main disciplines of engineering/technology and the organizational, administrative, and planning abilities of decision making. It is complementary to other sub-disciplines such as economics, finance, marketing, decision and risk analysis, etc. The chapters introduce and demonstrate decision making theory in practical case studies. It demonstrates key results for each sector with diverse real-world case studies. The theory is accompanied by relevant analysis techniques, with a progressional approach building from simple theory to complex and dynamic decisions with multiple data points, including big data, etc. Computational techniques, dynamic analysis, probabilistic methods, and mathematical optimization techniques are expertly blended to support analysis of multi-criteria decision-making problems with defined constraints and requirements.
Author : Stephen J. Hoch,Howard C. Kunreuther Publisher : John Wiley & Sons Page : 352 pages File Size : 41,8 Mb Release : 2002-03-14 Category : Business & Economics ISBN : 9780471150817
Wharton on Making Decisions by Stephen J. Hoch,Howard C. Kunreuther Pdf
Perspectives from leaders in decision science at Wharton Organized in part through Wharton's Risk Management and Decision Processes Center, the book assembles leading researchers from Wharton's business faculty who demonstrate how to apply the latest approaches in decision-making from four perspectives: personal, managerial, negotiator, and consumer. Each chapter describes how decisions are actually made, presents the ideal scenario, and then provides practical suggestions for improvement. The subjects range from when consumers will choose variety, integrating intuition into decisions, and applying game theory and strategic decisions, to decision factors in negotiations and how choices are made about insurance and health care.
The Practice of Enterprise Modeling by Jennifer Horkoff,Manfred A. Jeusfeld,Anne Persson Pdf
This volume constitutes the proceedings of the 9th IFIP WG 8.1 Conference on the Practice of Enterprise Modeling held in November 2016 in Skövde, Sweden. The PoEM conference series started in 2008 and aims to provide a forum sharing knowledge and experiences between the academic community and practitioners from industry and the public sector. The 18 full papers and 9 short papers accepted were carefully reviewed and selected from 54 submissions and cover topics related to information systems development, enterprise modeling, requirements engineering, and process management. In addition, the keynote by Robert Winter on “Establishing 'Architectural Thinking' in Organizations” is also included in this volume.
Vincent A. W. J. Marchau,Warren E. Walker,Pieter J. T. M. Bloemen,Steven W. Popper
Author : Vincent A. W. J. Marchau,Warren E. Walker,Pieter J. T. M. Bloemen,Steven W. Popper Publisher : Springer Page : 408 pages File Size : 46,7 Mb Release : 2019-04-04 Category : Business & Economics ISBN : 9783030052522
Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty by Vincent A. W. J. Marchau,Warren E. Walker,Pieter J. T. M. Bloemen,Steven W. Popper Pdf
This open access book focuses on both the theory and practice associated with the tools and approaches for decisionmaking in the face of deep uncertainty. It explores approaches and tools supporting the design of strategic plans under deep uncertainty, and their testing in the real world, including barriers and enablers for their use in practice. The book broadens traditional approaches and tools to include the analysis of actors and networks related to the problem at hand. It also shows how lessons learned in the application process can be used to improve the approaches and tools used in the design process. The book offers guidance in identifying and applying appropriate approaches and tools to design plans, as well as advice on implementing these plans in the real world. For decisionmakers and practitioners, the book includes realistic examples and practical guidelines that should help them understand what decisionmaking under deep uncertainty is and how it may be of assistance to them. Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty: From Theory to Practice is divided into four parts. Part I presents five approaches for designing strategic plans under deep uncertainty: Robust Decision Making, Dynamic Adaptive Planning, Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways, Info-Gap Decision Theory, and Engineering Options Analysis. Each approach is worked out in terms of its theoretical foundations, methodological steps to follow when using the approach, latest methodological insights, and challenges for improvement. In Part II, applications of each of these approaches are presented. Based on recent case studies, the practical implications of applying each approach are discussed in depth. Part III focuses on using the approaches and tools in real-world contexts, based on insights from real-world cases. Part IV contains conclusions and a synthesis of the lessons that can be drawn for designing, applying, and implementing strategic plans under deep uncertainty, as well as recommendations for future work. The publication of this book has been funded by the Radboud University, the RAND Corporation, Delft University of Technology, and Deltares.
Risk Analysis in Theory and Practice by Jean-Paul Chavas Pdf
The objective of Risk Analysis in Theory and Practice is to present this analytical framework and to illustrate how it can be used in the investigation of economic decisions under risk. In a sense, the economics of risk is a difficult subject: it involves understanding human decisions in the absence of perfect information. How do we make decisions when we do not know some of events affecting us? The complexities of our uncertain world and of how humans obtain and process information make this difficult. In spite of these difficulties, much progress has been made. First, probability theory is the corner stone of risk assessment. This allows us to measure risk in a fashion that can be communicated among decision makers or researchers. Second, risk preferences are now better understood. This provides useful insights into the economic rationality of decision making under uncertainty. Third, over the last decades, good insights have been developed about the value of information. This helps better understand the role of information in human decision making and this book provides a systematic treatment of these issues in the context of both private and public decisions under uncertainty. Balanced treatment of conceptual models and applied analysis Considers both private and public decisions under uncertainty Website presents application exercises in Excel
Super Deciders by Stefan Brusoni,Claudio Feser,Karolin Frankenberger,Daniella Laureiro-Martinez Pdf
Dramatically improve the decisions you make every day using insights from the latest neuroscience We make hundreds of decisions daily, from small ones – such as what to wear today and how to drive to work – to big ones – such as the company strategy and whether to launch a restructuring program that may impact thousands of people. In business, studies suggest that company executives spend 40% of their time making decisions and that the effectiveness of their decisions largely drives the results of the companies that they lead. In Super Deciders: The Science and Practice of Decision-Making in Dynamic and Uncertain Times, a team of renown researchers and business advisors deliver an application of the latest advances in neuroscience to effectively making the most difficult decisions, those we make in dynamic environments, in situations of uncertainty when we need to predict outcomes, we’re missing relevant information, time is scarce, and the environment is constantly changing. The book is written in three parts. In the first part, the book offers a practical framework for making effective decisions under uncertainty. In the second part, the book discusses approaches to effectively implement those decisions, thus managing change at every level, from the individual to the organizational. Finally, the book develops suggestions on how leaders can diagnose and improve – in themselves and in the people they lead – the cognitive abilities relevant to decision-making. You’ll also find: An enlightening business narrative detailing the journey of a fictional leader of an international travel operator named Inuk. Six cases that put you into real-life situations of making difficult decisions and that help you assess your decision-making effectiveness. An accessible and fun introduction to the neuroscience of decision-making. Ideal for managers, executives, directors, and other business leaders, Super Deciders is a can’t-miss decision-making playbook that you’ve been waiting for.
Author : David A. Evans,Vimla L. Patel Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media Page : 370 pages File Size : 52,8 Mb Release : 2013-06-29 Category : Medical ISBN : 9783662028339
Advanced Models of Cognition for Medical Training and Practice by David A. Evans,Vimla L. Patel Pdf
Cognitive science is a multidisciplinary science concerned with understanding and utilizing models of cognition. It has spawned a great dealof research on applications such as expert systems and intelligent tutoring systems, and has interacted closely with psychological research. However, it is generally accepted that it is difficult to apply cognitive-scientific models to medical training and practice. This book is based on a NATO Advanced Research Workshop held in Italy in 1991, the purpose of which was to examine the impact ofmodels of cognition on medical training and practice and to outline future research programmes relating cognition and education, and in particular to consider the potential impact of cognitive science on medical training and practice. A major discovery presented in the book is that the research areas related to artificial intelligence, cognitive psychology, and medical decision making are considerably closer, both conceptually and theoretically, than many of the workshop participants originally thought.
Sixth International Conference on Cognitive Modeling by Marsha C. Lovett,Christian D. Schunn,Christian Lebiere,Paul Munro Pdf
The International Conference on Cognitive Modeling brings together researchers who develop computational models to explain and predict cognitive data. The core theme of the 2004 conference was "Integrating Computational Models," encompassing an integration of diverse data through models of coherent phenomena; integration across modeling approaches; and integration of teaching and modeling. This text presents the proceedings of that conference. The International Conference on Cognitive Modeling 2004 sought to grow the discipline of computational cognitive modeling by providing a sophisticated modeling audience for cutting-edge researchers, in addition to offering a forum for integrating insights across alternative modeling approaches in both basic research and applied settings, and a venue for planning the future growth of the discipline. The meeting included a careful peer-review process of 6-page paper submissions; poster-abstracts to include late-breaking work in the area; prizes for best papers; a doctoral consortium; and competitive modeling symposia that compare and contrast different approaches to the same phenomena.