The Economic Value Of Seasonal Forecasts Stochastic Economywide Analysis For East Africa

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The economic value of seasonal forecasts stochastic economywide analysis for East Africa

Rodrigues, Joao,Thurlow, James,Landman, Willem,Ringler, Claudia,Robertson, Richard D.,Zhu, Tingju
The economic value of seasonal forecasts stochastic economywide analysis for East Africa Book PDF

Author : Rodrigues, Joao,Thurlow, James,Landman, Willem,Ringler, Claudia,Robertson, Richard D.,Zhu, Tingju
Publisher : Intl Food Policy Res Inst
Page : 32 pages
File Size : 47,8 Mb
Release : 2016-08-05
Category : Science
ISBN : 8210379456XXX

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The economic value of seasonal forecasts stochastic economywide analysis for East Africa by Rodrigues, Joao,Thurlow, James,Landman, Willem,Ringler, Claudia,Robertson, Richard D.,Zhu, Tingju Pdf

There is growing interest within the climate change and development community in using seasonal forecast information to reduce the losses to agriculture resulting from climate variability, especially within food-insecure countries. However, forecast systems are expensive to establish and maintain, and therefore gauging the potential economic return to investments in forecast systems is crucial. Most studies that evaluate seasonal forecasts focus on developed countries and/or overlook agriculture’s economywide linkages. Yet forecasts may be more valuable in developing regions such as East Africa, where climate is variable and agriculture has macroeconomic importance. We use computable general equilibrium and process-based crop models to estimate the potential economywide value of national seasonal forecast systems in Kenya, Malawi, Mozambique, Tanzania, and Zambia. Stochastic seasonal simulations produce value distributions for forecasts of varying accuracy and varying levels of farm coverage. A timely and accurate forecast adopted by all farmers generates average regional income gains of US$113 million per year. Gains are much higher during extreme climate events and are generally pro-poor. The forecast value falls when forecast skill and farm coverage decline. National economic and trading structures, including the importance of agricultural exports, are found to be major determinants of forecast value. Economywide approaches are therefore needed to complement farm-level analysis when evaluating forecast systems in low-income agrarian economies.

Implications of Slowing Growth in Emerging Market Economies for Hunger and Poverty in Rural Areas of Developing Countries

Laborde Debucquet, David,Martin, Will
Implications of Slowing Growth in Emerging Market Economies for Hunger and Poverty in Rural Areas of Developing Countries Book PDF

Author : Laborde Debucquet, David,Martin, Will
Publisher : Intl Food Policy Res Inst
Page : 58 pages
File Size : 44,7 Mb
Release : 2016-09-06
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 8210379456XXX

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Implications of Slowing Growth in Emerging Market Economies for Hunger and Poverty in Rural Areas of Developing Countries by Laborde Debucquet, David,Martin, Will Pdf

Over the past 25 years, economic growth rates in many developing countries have outpaced those in industrialized countries, and per capita incomes of these two groups of countries have started to converge. Growth in developing countries contributed to a dramatic drop—from 37 percent to 13 percent—in the global extreme poverty rate between 1990 and 201. However, the global economic outlook has deteriorated recently. This paper examines the impact of the actual and projected slowdown in the world economy since 2012 on the poor and on the potential for achievement of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). It builds on the changes between 2012 and late 2015 in the International Monetary Fund’s World Economic Outlook projections to provide the basic slowdown scenario. It then uses a global model to assess the impacts of lower rates of productivity growth and consequent lower savings and investment on key price and income variables. The productivity shocks are passed directly to the production activities included in household microsimulation models for almost 300,000 households. These households are also affected by the modeled changes in prices and wages. Simulations allow us to assess the impacts of the slowdown on the real household incomes of the poor, and hence on the poverty rate. The results suggest that the poorest countries will see the greatest slowdown in poverty reduction, with over 5 percent of their population projected to remain below the poverty line. Overall 38 million fewer people will leave extreme poverty compared to earlier projections. Farm households are at particular risk in middle-income countries, with over 1.5 percent more of the farming population potentially not escaping extreme poverty in these countries. By 2030, average extreme poverty in rural areas is now projected to be about 7.5 percent, rather than 7.1 percent. While substantial poverty reduction is still expected between now and 2030, a strong focus on policies for poverty reduction will be vital to achieving the first SDG goal of eliminating poverty.

Limits to green revolution in rice in Africa

Ragasa, Catherine,Chapoto, Anthony
Limits to green revolution in rice in Africa Book PDF

Author : Ragasa, Catherine,Chapoto, Anthony
Publisher : Intl Food Policy Res Inst
Page : 48 pages
File Size : 40,9 Mb
Release : 2016-09-29
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 8210379456XXX

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Limits to green revolution in rice in Africa by Ragasa, Catherine,Chapoto, Anthony Pdf

This paper examines closely the constraints in productivity improvements and evaluates available rice technologies looking at the heterogeneity of irrigated and rainfed ecologies in 10 regions in Ghana. Employing yield response models, profitability analysis, and adoption models, results show various practices contribute to yield improvements in irrigated and rainfed systems including chemical fertilizer use, use of certified seed of improved varieties, transplanting, bunding, leveling, use of a sawah system, seed priming, and row planting. Evidence also shows that extension services on rice production are limited and that intensifying extension services can contribute to increases in rice yield.

Impacts of CAADP on Africa’s Agricultural-led Development

Benin, Samuel
Impacts of CAADP on Africa s Agricultural led Development Book PDF

Author : Benin, Samuel
Publisher : Intl Food Policy Res Inst
Page : 56 pages
File Size : 46,9 Mb
Release : 2016-09-02
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 8210379456XXX

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Impacts of CAADP on Africa’s Agricultural-led Development by Benin, Samuel Pdf

This paper uses panel data on 46 African countries from 2001 to 2014 to estimate the impacts of the Comprehensive Africa Agriculture Development Programme (CAADP), an agriculture-led integrated framework of development priorities in Africa, on agricultural expenditure and productivity, income, and nutrition. A difference-in-difference treatment-effects model (based on when a CAADP compact is signed and the level of CAADP implementation reached) and different estimation methods and model specifications are used. The results show that CAADP has had a positive impact on agricultural value-added and land and labor productivity. The impact on agriculture expenditure is generally negative, suggesting that there is a substitution effect between the government’s own funding and external sources of funding for the sector. The estimated impact on income and nutrition is generally insignificant. There are some puzzling results from the interaction between specific period of compact signing and level of implementation reached. Implications for maintaining the positive impacts, as well as for further research to understand the puzzling results, are discussed.

Have Chinese firms become smaller? If so, why?

Yang, Qiming,Zhang, Xiaobo,Zhu, Wu
Have Chinese firms become smaller If so why Book PDF

Author : Yang, Qiming,Zhang, Xiaobo,Zhu, Wu
Publisher : Intl Food Policy Res Inst
Page : 36 pages
File Size : 40,9 Mb
Release : 2016-09-23
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 8210379456XXX

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Have Chinese firms become smaller? If so, why? by Yang, Qiming,Zhang, Xiaobo,Zhu, Wu Pdf

Normally as an economy develops, firm sizes increase. However, as measured by the employment rate, the firm size in China declined from 2004 to 2008. In this paper, we develop a structural dynamic model with heterogeneous workers to study the relative contributions of three factors to declining firm size: rising real wages, implementation of minimum wages, and the introduction of a new national labor contract law. While rising wages make a sizeable contribution, we find that the new labor law plays a dominant role in solving the puzzle. In comparison, the impact of minimum wages is more muted.

Adoption of food safety measures among Nepalese milk producers

Kumar, Anjani,Thapa, Ganesh,Joshi, Pramod Kumar,Roy, Devesh
Adoption of food safety measures among Nepalese milk producers Book PDF

Author : Kumar, Anjani,Thapa, Ganesh,Joshi, Pramod Kumar,Roy, Devesh
Publisher : Intl Food Policy Res Inst
Page : 52 pages
File Size : 50,7 Mb
Release : 2016-09-15
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 8210379456XXX

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Adoption of food safety measures among Nepalese milk producers by Kumar, Anjani,Thapa, Ganesh,Joshi, Pramod Kumar,Roy, Devesh Pdf

Food safety is the most vital component of food security. One option to ensure food safety is through enhancing compliance at the farm level. This study investigates the status, estimates the cost, identifies the determinants, and assesses the impact of compliance with food safety measures in milk production in Nepal. The study is based on cross-section primary data collected at the farm level from six districts of Nepal. These districts are known for milk production and capture the geographical and institutional diversity of milk production in the country. The study shows that the status of compliance with food safety measures at the dairy farm level is not very encouraging. The intensity with which food safety practices are adopted shows wide inter- and intra-district variations. This intensity depicts a positive relationship to herd size. The additional cost of compliance with food milk safety measures reveals an inverse relationship with herd size. The factors associated with the adoption of food safety measures are caste, number of children and elderly people in a family, household labor size, herd size, access to information, inspection for conformity with the safety and quality standards in dairy farming, perception of households about food safety assistance provided by milk buyers, and market outlet types. We also provide evidence of the impact of food safety measures on farm-gate prices and farmers’ profitability.

Export competition issues after Nairobi

Díaz-Bonilla, Eugenio,Hepburn, Jonathon
Export competition issues after Nairobi Book PDF

Author : Díaz-Bonilla, Eugenio,Hepburn, Jonathon
Publisher : Intl Food Policy Res Inst
Page : 28 pages
File Size : 49,5 Mb
Release : 2016-09-16
Category : Law
ISBN : 8210379456XXX

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Export competition issues after Nairobi by Díaz-Bonilla, Eugenio,Hepburn, Jonathon Pdf

This paper reviews, from the perspective of developing countries, the recent agreement reached at the 10th WTO Ministerial at Nairobi related to export competition, including exports subsidies, food aid, export credits and guarantees, and state trading enterprises (STEs). The legal and economic aspects of the agreement are examined, and the relevance of banning agricultural export subsidies are noted. This eliminates some of the worst-case scenarios, if agricultural world prices continue to soften and the important margin of export subsidies still allowed under the WTO framework was to be used. But given the relatively longer transition period for some relevant products before export subsidies are completely banned, the paper argues for continued monitoring of the potential use of this instrument. The paper also discusses the other components of export competition, looking into the legal and economic aspects. Some suggestions about continuous work on transparency and monitoring of current practices, and further disciplines are also presented.

Market integration and price transmission in Tajikistan’s wheat markets

Ilyasov, Jarilkasin,Götz, Linde,Akramov, Kamiljon T.,Dorosh, Paul A.,Glauben, Thomas
Market integration and price transmission in Tajikistan s wheat markets Book PDF

Author : Ilyasov, Jarilkasin,Götz, Linde,Akramov, Kamiljon T.,Dorosh, Paul A.,Glauben, Thomas
Publisher : Intl Food Policy Res Inst
Page : 32 pages
File Size : 46,5 Mb
Release : 2016-08-05
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 8210379456XXX

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Market integration and price transmission in Tajikistan’s wheat markets by Ilyasov, Jarilkasin,Götz, Linde,Akramov, Kamiljon T.,Dorosh, Paul A.,Glauben, Thomas Pdf

The extent of market integration and transmission of food price shocks is a major determinant of price stability and overall food security, particularly in developing countries. Few studies have examined these issues for countries in Central Asia, however. This paper aims to fill this gap by examining wheat market integration and price transmission in Tajikistan, the most food-insecure country in Central Asia. In particular, in this study we measure how well wheat market prices in Tajikistan are integrated with international and regional markets, as well as domestically with each other. Subsequently, we assess the nature of price transmission between these markets. Using horizontal price transmission analysis and asymmetric price relationships, a.k.a. rockets and feathers, we demonstrate how prices change in peripheral food-shortage markets compared to markets located in zones with abundant local production.

A farm-level perspective of the policy challenges for export diversification in Malawi

Johnson, Michael E.,Edelman, Brent,Kazembe, Cynthia
A farm level perspective of the policy challenges for export diversification in Malawi Book PDF

Author : Johnson, Michael E.,Edelman, Brent,Kazembe, Cynthia
Publisher : Intl Food Policy Res Inst
Page : 52 pages
File Size : 54,8 Mb
Release : 2016-08-26
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 8210379456XXX

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A farm-level perspective of the policy challenges for export diversification in Malawi by Johnson, Michael E.,Edelman, Brent,Kazembe, Cynthia Pdf

The primary goal of the study is to investigate the potential to expand oilseeds, specifically soybeans,as an alternative commercialcrop to tobacco among Malawian farmers. A principal motivation for undertaking the study at the microeconomic level is to determine, in a theoretically consistent fashion, the type of policy and economic environment under which farmers begin to shift more of their scarce resources to oilseed production.The study aims to provide recommendations to a growing demand among policy makers and development partners for a greater diversification of exports and crop production systems of the majority smallholder farmers in Malawi. Using representative farm models, the study examinesthe potential for expanding production of soybeans among typical smallholder farming systems in Malawi. The results will help guide future policies and investments targeted at promoting greater crop diversification and incomes, in order to reduce poverty and malnutrition in Malawi. Given the amount of labor and land resources allocated to maize production for food security purposes, we also consider the policy challenges that emerge for crop diversification as a result

The distribution of power and household behavior

Wouterse, Fleur Stephanie
The distribution of power and household behavior Book PDF

Author : Wouterse, Fleur Stephanie
Publisher : Intl Food Policy Res Inst
Page : 28 pages
File Size : 54,7 Mb
Release : 2016-08-12
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 8210379456XXX

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The distribution of power and household behavior by Wouterse, Fleur Stephanie Pdf

Niger is a landlocked Sahelian country, two-thirds of which is in the Sahara desert. Although only one-eighth of the land considered arable, more than 90 percent of Niger’s labor force is employed in agriculture, which is predominantly subsistence oriented. Food security remains a major challenge in rural areas of Niger, and gender is a significant basis for the inequality among household members with respect to access to land. Access to land, which is a measure of the income-earning potential of an individual, is an important determinant of the distribution of bargaining power within the household. Because households may not act in a unitary manner when making decisions, the power of individuals within the household to exert their own preferences may determine welfare outcomes, such as spending on nutritious foods or healthcare. In this paper, we use new data for Niger and regression analyses to assess the importance of the intrahousehold distribution of power for the behavior of rural households. Our results reveal that men are significantly more empowered than women in rural households in Niger and that social protection programs such as water, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH) and food-for-training contribute significantly to the empowerment of women. Our findings also point to the validity of the collective approach to modeling household behavior, as the distribution of power was shown to affect household behavior. In particular, we found that an increase in power in favor of the adult female significantly increases expenditures on healthcare and reduces spending on vices (cigarettes and alcohol).

Comparing apples to apples

Nin-Pratt, Alejandro
Comparing apples to apples Book PDF

Author : Nin-Pratt, Alejandro
Publisher : Intl Food Policy Res Inst
Page : 44 pages
File Size : 44,7 Mb
Release : 2016-09-23
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 8210379456XXX

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Comparing apples to apples by Nin-Pratt, Alejandro Pdf

It has been apparent for more than a century that future economic progress in agriculture will be driven by the invention and application of new technologies resulting from expenditure in research and development (R&D) by governments and private firms. Nevertheless, it is conventional wisdom in the economic development literature that there is a significant underinvestment in agricultural R&D in developing countries. Evidence supporting this belief is provided, first by a vast literature showing returns on R&D expenditure to be so high as to justify levels of investment in multiples of those actually found, and second, from available data showing low research effort in developing countries as measured by the intensity ratio (IR), that is, the percentage of agricultural gross domestic product invested in agricultural R&D (excluding the for-profit private sector). This paper argues that the IR is an inadequate indicator to measure and compare the research efforts of a diverse group of countries and proposes an alternative index that allows meaningful comparisons between countries. The proposed index can be used to identify potential under-investors, determine intensity gaps, and quantify the R&D investment needed to close these gaps by comparing countries with similar characteristics. Results obtained using the new R&D intensity indicator with a sample of 88 countries show that the investment effort in developing countries is much higher than the one observed using the conventional IR measure. The new measure finds that countries like China, India, Brazil, and Kenya have similar levels of R&D intensity to those in the United States. To close the R&D intensity gap measured by the new index, developing countries will need to invest US$7.1 billion on top of the $21.4 billion invested on average during 2008–2011, an increase of 33 percent of total actual investment.

Will China’s demographic transition exacerbate its income inequality?

Wang, Xinxin,Chen, Kevin Z.,Robinson, Sherman,Huang, Zuhui
Will China s demographic transition exacerbate its income inequality Book PDF

Author : Wang, Xinxin,Chen, Kevin Z.,Robinson, Sherman,Huang, Zuhui
Publisher : Intl Food Policy Res Inst
Page : 32 pages
File Size : 51,8 Mb
Release : 2016-09-29
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 8210379456XXX

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Will China’s demographic transition exacerbate its income inequality? by Wang, Xinxin,Chen, Kevin Z.,Robinson, Sherman,Huang, Zuhui Pdf

Demographic transition due to population aging is an emerging trend throughout the developing world, and it is especially acute in China, which has undergone demographic transition more rapidly than have most industrial economies. This paper quantifies the distributional effects in the context of demographic transition using an integrated recursive dynamic computable general equilibrium model with top-down behavioral microsimulation. The results of the poverty and inequality index indicate that population aging has a negative impact on the reduction of poverty while its impact is positive with regard to equality. In addition, elderly rural households are experiencing the most serious poverty, and their inequality problems compared with other household groups and within group inequality worsens with demographic transition. These findings not only advance the previous literature but also deserve particular attention from Chinese policy makers.

Making pulses affordable again

Joshi, Pramod Kumar,Kishore, Avinash,Roy, Devesh
Making pulses affordable again Book PDF

Author : Joshi, Pramod Kumar,Kishore, Avinash,Roy, Devesh
Publisher : Intl Food Policy Res Inst
Page : 24 pages
File Size : 42,9 Mb
Release : 2016-09-15
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 8210379456XXX

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Making pulses affordable again by Joshi, Pramod Kumar,Kishore, Avinash,Roy, Devesh Pdf

Rising prices and declining consumption of pulses cause concern in terms of both nutrition and food inflation in India. This paper outlines policy strategies to increase the availability of pulses at affordable prices in India and also points out limitations of some of the most common recommendations for achieving these objectives. There seems to be no option but to increase domestic production of pulses in India. The global supply of pulses is limited compared with India’s needs, and sizable imports by India are bound to increase world prices. Domestic production of pulses in India is most likely piecewise inelastic, meaning that small price increases do not translate into a significant supply response. Because farmers face both production and marketing risks, they increase pulse area and intensify production only when there is a large increase in expected prices that covers the risk premium. Droughts, too, are a major risk for pulses. Access to one or two protective irrigations during the growing season can possibly lead to sizable increases in pulse production and reduce the production risk. The har khet ko paani (assured irrigation) initiative under the Pradhan Mantri Krishi Sinchayee Yojana (PMKSY) program should give priority to pulse-producing areas. The minimum support price (MSP) for pulses, without direct government procurement, helps traders more than farmers because it acts as a focal point for tacit collusion among traders. Farmers will benefit from the MSP only if it is raised substantially from its current levels. The increase in farmgate prices due to a higher MSP will not necessarily lead to an increase in the retail price of pulses because much of the wedge between farmgate prices and consumer prices is traders’ margin. Including subsidized pulses in public distribution systems can save households some money, but it has only a small effect on total consumption of pulses and almost no effect on total protein intake. We suggest, as more potent solutions, investing in research and extension for pulses, aggregating pulse growers into farmer producer organizations, and paying pulse growers or pulse-growing areas for the ecosystem services offered by pulses.

New modalities for managing drought risk in rainfed agriculture

Ward, Patrick S.,Makhija, Simrin
New modalities for managing drought risk in rainfed agriculture Book PDF

Author : Ward, Patrick S.,Makhija, Simrin
Publisher : Intl Food Policy Res Inst
Page : 32 pages
File Size : 48,7 Mb
Release : 2016-10-05
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 8210379456XXX

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New modalities for managing drought risk in rainfed agriculture by Ward, Patrick S.,Makhija, Simrin Pdf

In this paper we explore the potential for a new approach to managing drought risk among rainfed rice producers in Odisha, India. Droughts have historically been a serious constraint to agricultural production in rainfed agricultural systems, with droughts resulting in significant reductions in both yields and cultivated area, in turn leading to significant impacts on rural livelihoods and food security. Scientists and policy makers have proposed various strategies for managing risks, with limited success. In this study we consider two such strategies, specifically drought-tolerant rice and weather index insurance. While neither drought-tolerant cultivars nor weather index insurance products are perfect solutions for adequately managing drought risk in and of themselves, there is scope to exploit the benefits of each and bundle them into a complementary risk management product, specifically through proper index calibration and an optimized insurance design. In this study, we explore preferences for such a complementary risk management product using discrete choice experiments in Odisha, India. We are able to estimate the added value that farmers perceive in the bundled product above and beyond the value associated with each of the independent products. We also show that valuations are sensitive to the basis risk implied by the insurance product, with farmers less enthusiastic about risk management products that leave significant risks uninsured.

Using zero tillage to ameliorate yield losses from weather shocks

Khan, Md. Tajuddin,Kishore, Avinash,Pandey, Divya,Joshi, Pramod Kumar
Using zero tillage to ameliorate yield losses from weather shocks Book PDF

Author : Khan, Md. Tajuddin,Kishore, Avinash,Pandey, Divya,Joshi, Pramod Kumar
Publisher : Intl Food Policy Res Inst
Page : 28 pages
File Size : 45,6 Mb
Release : 2016-10-05
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 8210379456XXX

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Using zero tillage to ameliorate yield losses from weather shocks by Khan, Md. Tajuddin,Kishore, Avinash,Pandey, Divya,Joshi, Pramod Kumar Pdf

Zero tillage (ZT) for wheat is one of the most widely adopted resource-conserving technologies in the rice-wheat systems in northern India. In areas of Haryana with rice-wheat systems, 36.5 percent of all farmers practice ZT on 35 percent of their wheat area. Yet the literature measuring the impact of ZT on farmers’ fields is scarce. This study fills this gap by using the data collected from a random sample of 717 farmers from 50 villages in 10 districts of Haryana. It applies the difference-in-differences method to five-year recall data on wheat yields in ZT and conventionally tilled plots of land to quantify the crop loss due to unseasonal rains right before wheat harvests in March 2015. The results reveal significantly lower wheat yield losses in the ZT plots than in the conventionally tilled plots. On average, farmers suffered yield losses ranging between 3.73 and 4.53 quintals per hectare in 2015 due to unseasonal rains. The loss was lower by 1.05–1.10 quintals per hectare in ZT plots. The analysis clearly shows that adoption of ZT helped in reducing crop loss in wheat by 24–28 percent, valued at 1,523–1,595 Indian rupees (Rs.) per hectare (approximately US$22.50 per hectare). The loss avoided due to ZT is nearly equal to the prevailing rental rate of the ZT machine (Rs. 1,500 per hectare) in Haryana. Climate models suggest that the incidence of short-duration acute hydro meteorological events is likely to increase in years to come. Such events are hard to predict and prepare for, and dealing with them hinges mainly on disaster relief. However, our results show that adoption of ZT is one possible way to reduce potential loss from some of these weather events and that ZT is therefore well characterized as a climate-smart technology.