The Future Of Oil And Fiscal Sustainability In The Gcc Region

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The Future of Oil and Fiscal Sustainability in the GCC Region

Mr.Tokhir N Mirzoev,Ling Zhu,Yang Yang,Ms.Tian Zhang,Mr.Erik Roos,Mr.Andrea Pescatori,Mr.Akito Matsumoto
The Future of Oil and Fiscal Sustainability in the GCC Region Book PDF

Author : Mr.Tokhir N Mirzoev,Ling Zhu,Yang Yang,Ms.Tian Zhang,Mr.Erik Roos,Mr.Andrea Pescatori,Mr.Akito Matsumoto
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 55 pages
File Size : 54,8 Mb
Release : 2020-02-06
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781513525907

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The Future of Oil and Fiscal Sustainability in the GCC Region by Mr.Tokhir N Mirzoev,Ling Zhu,Yang Yang,Ms.Tian Zhang,Mr.Erik Roos,Mr.Andrea Pescatori,Mr.Akito Matsumoto Pdf

The oil market is undergoing fundamental change. New technologies are increasing the supply of oil from old and new sources, while rising concerns over the environment are seeing the world gradually moving away from oil. This spells a significant challenge for oil-exporting countries, including those of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) who account for a fifth of the world’s oil production. The GCC countries have recognized the need to reduce their reliance on oil and are all implementing reforms to diversify their economies as well as fiscal and external revenues. Nevertheless, as global oil demand is expected to peak in the next two decades, the associated fiscal imperative could be both larger and more urgent than implied by the GCC countries’ existing plans.

When Can Oil Economies Be Deemed Sustainable?

Giacomo Luciani,Tom Moerenhout
When Can Oil Economies Be Deemed Sustainable Book PDF

Author : Giacomo Luciani,Tom Moerenhout
Publisher : Springer Nature
Page : 365 pages
File Size : 48,8 Mb
Release : 2020-09-30
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 9789811557286

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When Can Oil Economies Be Deemed Sustainable? by Giacomo Luciani,Tom Moerenhout Pdf

This open access book questions the stereotype depicting all Gulf (GCC) economies as not sustainable, and starts a critical discussion of what these economies and polities should do to guarantee themselves a relatively stable future. Volatile international oil markets and the acceleration of the energy transition has challenged the notion that oil revenues are sufficient to sustain oil economies in the near to medium term. But what is the meaning of economic sustainability? The book discusses the multiple dimensions of the concept: economic diversification, continuing value of resources, taxation and fiscal development, labor market sustainability, sustainable income distribution, environmental sustainability, political order (democracy or authoritarianism) and sustainability, regional integration. The overarching message in this book is that we should move on from the simplistic branding of the Gulf economies as unsustainable and tackle the details of which adaptations they might need to undertake.

Stress Testing at the IMF

Mr.Tobias Adrian,Mr.James Morsink,MissLiliana B Schumacher
Stress Testing at the IMF Book PDF

Author : Mr.Tobias Adrian,Mr.James Morsink,MissLiliana B Schumacher
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 73 pages
File Size : 47,9 Mb
Release : 2020-02-05
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781513520742

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Stress Testing at the IMF by Mr.Tobias Adrian,Mr.James Morsink,MissLiliana B Schumacher Pdf

This paper explains specifics of stress testing at the IMF. After a brief section on the evolution of stress tests at the IMF, the paper presents the key steps of an IMF staff stress test. They are followed by a discussion on how IMF staff uses stress tests results for policy advice. The paper concludes by identifying remaining challenges to make stress tests more useful for the monitoring of financial stability and an overview of IMF staff work program in that direction. Stress tests help assess the resilience of financial systems in IMF member countries and underpin policy advice to preserve or restore financial stability. This assessment and advice are mainly provided through the Financial Sector Assessment Program (FSAP). IMF staff also provide technical assistance in stress testing to many its member countries. An IMF macroprudential stress test is a methodology to assess financial vulnerabilities that can trigger systemic risk and the need of systemwide mitigating measures. The definition of systemic risk as used by the IMF is relevant to understanding the role of its stress tests as tools for financial surveillance and the IMF’s current work program. IMF stress tests primarily apply to depository intermediaries, and, systemically important banks.

The GCC Economies

Mohamed A. Ramady
The GCC Economies Book PDF

Author : Mohamed A. Ramady
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
Page : 360 pages
File Size : 55,6 Mb
Release : 2012-04-23
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 9781461416111

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The GCC Economies by Mohamed A. Ramady Pdf

The ‘Arab Spring’ of 2011 has affected the countries of the region to varying degrees, including the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) members, comprising Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Oman and Bahrain. The GCC has become a significant regional bloc playing a vital economic and political role far beyond its shores, given its geopolitical strategic location, a preponderance of global energy reserves and a major international player through the use of accumulated financial reserves. A new Gulf is rising, one that is more self assertive, looking to expand its membership to other Arab countries such as Jordan and Morocco, while at the same time strengthening the bloc’s relationship with current and emerging trading and strategic partners in Europe, USA and Asia. Regional and international realities, especially the uncertainties unleashed by the ‘Arab Spring’, are forcing Gulf leadership to initiate new policies involving closer cooperation amongst GCC countries to address emerging challenges. This volume brings together thirty renowned academics and specialists to examine a range of multifaceted social, political and economic issues facing the GCC in key areas such as: · Diversification from a high dependency on a narrow hydrocarbon base · Social transformation, youth employment and effective gender participation · Outward and inward foreign direct investment flows · Prospects for education reforms and e-learning. · Sustainable security in oil, renewable energy (including nuclear) and food · Corporate governance, transparency and enhancing the private sector's operating environment · The role and governance of Gulf Sovereign Wealth Funds in investing their surpluses. The volume also offers insights for challenges facing the GCC in monetary union, expanding the regional debt market and Sukuk issuance, GCC intellectual property rights application, detailed assessments of individual GCC country risk analysis, as well as the sustainability of long term government fiscal stimulus programs at the expense of private sector involvement.

Economic Prospects and Policy Challenges for the GCC Countries - 2021

International Monetary Fund
Economic Prospects and Policy Challenges for the GCC Countries 2021 Book PDF

Author : International Monetary Fund
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 39 pages
File Size : 41,9 Mb
Release : 2021-12-15
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781616354879

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Economic Prospects and Policy Challenges for the GCC Countries - 2021 by International Monetary Fund Pdf

GCC policymakers moved quickly to mitigate the health and economic impacts of twin COVID-19 and oil price shocks. Infection rates have declined across the GCC to well below previous peaks, though countries have experienced successive waves of the virus, and economic recoveries have begun to take hold. Nevertheless, GCC policymakers must navigate a challenging and uncertain landscape. The pandemic continues to cloud the global outlook as countries are in different phases of recovery, with varied growth prospects and policy space

The GCC Economies

Mohamed A. Ramady
The GCC Economies Book PDF

Author : Mohamed A. Ramady
Publisher : Springer
Page : 324 pages
File Size : 55,6 Mb
Release : 2012-04-26
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 1461416124

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The GCC Economies by Mohamed A. Ramady Pdf

The ‘Arab Spring’ of 2011 has affected the countries of the region to varying degrees, including the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) members, comprising Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Oman and Bahrain. The GCC has become a significant regional bloc playing a vital economic and political role far beyond its shores, given its geopolitical strategic location, a preponderance of global energy reserves and a major international player through the use of accumulated financial reserves. A new Gulf is rising, one that is more self assertive, looking to expand its membership to other Arab countries such as Jordan and Morocco, while at the same time strengthening the bloc’s relationship with current and emerging trading and strategic partners in Europe, USA and Asia. Regional and international realities, especially the uncertainties unleashed by the ‘Arab Spring’, are forcing Gulf leadership to initiate new policies involving closer cooperation amongst GCC countries to address emerging challenges. This volume brings together thirty renowned academics and specialists to examine a range of multifaceted social, political and economic issues facing the GCC in key areas such as: · Diversification from a high dependency on a narrow hydrocarbon base · Social transformation, youth employment and effective gender participation · Outward and inward foreign direct investment flows · Prospects for education reforms and e-learning. · Sustainable security in oil, renewable energy (including nuclear) and food · Corporate governance, transparency and enhancing the private sector's operating environment · The role and governance of Gulf Sovereign Wealth Funds in investing their surpluses. The volume also offers insights for challenges facing the GCC in monetary union, expanding the regional debt market and Sukuk issuance, GCC intellectual property rights application, detailed assessments of individual GCC country risk analysis, as well as the sustainability of long term government fiscal stimulus programs at the expense of private sector involvement.

Fiscal Policy Sustainability in Oil-Producing Countries

Mrs.Claire Liuksila,Ms.Sheila Bassett,Alejandro García
Fiscal Policy Sustainability in Oil Producing Countries Book PDF

Author : Mrs.Claire Liuksila,Ms.Sheila Bassett,Alejandro García
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 74 pages
File Size : 50,5 Mb
Release : 1994-11
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : UCSD:31822019112838

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Fiscal Policy Sustainability in Oil-Producing Countries by Mrs.Claire Liuksila,Ms.Sheila Bassett,Alejandro García Pdf

Assessing the sustainability of a given fiscal policy is especially important for countries that depend on income from exhaustible resources. Political and growth pressures may push governments to raise expenditure when revenue from exhaustible resources rises, but cutting outlays when price swings reduce income is often difficult. Traditional fiscal accounting may give a misleading view of policy sustainability. This paper argues that for countries in which a significant proportion of government revenue is derived from the exploitation of an exhaustible natural resource, fiscal policy sustainability can best be assessed within a permanent income framework that takes into account total government wealth, including the imputed wealth from reserves of natural resources. Using this framework, the paper takes a sample of six countries where government revenue from petroleum extraction is significant and draws conclusions about the sustainability of their fiscal policies during 1980-92.

The Gulf Cooperation Council at Forty

Tarik M. Yousef,Adel Abdel Ghafar
The Gulf Cooperation Council at Forty Book PDF

Author : Tarik M. Yousef,Adel Abdel Ghafar
Publisher : Brookings Institution Press
Page : 312 pages
File Size : 46,9 Mb
Release : 2023-02-22
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 9780815739548

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The Gulf Cooperation Council at Forty by Tarik M. Yousef,Adel Abdel Ghafar Pdf

All of the GCC countries—Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates—are undergoing historic socio-economic transitions. They are facing enormous strains on public finances and challenging economic outlooks, due to fluctuating oil prices, demographic pressures, high unemployment rates, and a lack of economic diversification. These countries also are likely to feel the rising impact of climate change, and global policies to deal with it, over the coming decades. In addition, seemingly unstoppable shifts in the long-standing international order, notably the rise of China and uncertainties about U.S. leadership, have potentially serious implications for the Middle East and beyond. This by noted scholars and experts considers the key trends shaping Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries--Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirate-- ranging from the COVID-19 pandemic, to climate change, economic disruptions, demographics and other domestic concerns, and shifts in the global order. The book’s chapters address such questions as: How will global megatrends impact the GCC? How can GCC states adjust and diversify their economies to meet the dual challenges of fluctuating oil prices and climate change? How can these states adjust their labor markets to absorb and support women and youth? How will inter GCC disagreements impact the region moving forward? And how will GCC relations with international actors shift in the coming years? This timely book, with its comprehensive analyses and policy recommendations, will be of interest to a wide range of readers interested in the GCC region, including policymakers, academics, and researchers at think tanks and nongovernmental organizations.

GCC Hydrocarbon Economies and COVID

Nikolay Kozhanov,Karen Young,Jalal Qanas
GCC Hydrocarbon Economies and COVID Book PDF

Author : Nikolay Kozhanov,Karen Young,Jalal Qanas
Publisher : Springer Nature
Page : 330 pages
File Size : 51,7 Mb
Release : 2023-01-21
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9789811954627

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GCC Hydrocarbon Economies and COVID by Nikolay Kozhanov,Karen Young,Jalal Qanas Pdf

The book considers the impact of COVID-19 on the GCC member states through the prism of challenges faced by their hydrocarbon sector. Yet, the publication’s discourse is not solely focused on the problems experienced by the oil and gas industries of the GCC member states after the beginning of the COVID pandemic. Instead, the contributors will analyze how these challenges and subsequent response to them affected other aspects of the GCC socio-economic and political development, from direct impact of the COVID on the energy sector of the GCC to socio-economic consequences of the oil market crisis for the region and its potential fallouts for the international relations of the Gulf.

Government and Politics of the Contemporary Middle East

Tareq Y. Ismael,Jacqueline S. Ismael
Government and Politics of the Contemporary Middle East Book PDF

Author : Tareq Y. Ismael,Jacqueline S. Ismael
Publisher : Taylor & Francis
Page : 640 pages
File Size : 53,9 Mb
Release : 2023-09-18
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 9781000919301

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Government and Politics of the Contemporary Middle East by Tareq Y. Ismael,Jacqueline S. Ismael Pdf

This exciting new edition of the successful textbook for students of Middle Eastern politics provides a highly relevant and comprehensive introduction to the complexities of a region in constant flux. Combining a thematic framework for examining patterns of politics with individual chapters dedicated to specific countries, the book places the very latest developments and long-standing issues within an historical context. This third edition extends its analysis to post-2015 developments in the region, as well as expanding the range of pedagogical features on offer. Presenting information in an accessible and inclusive format, the book offers: Coverage of the historical influence of colonialism and major world powers on the shaping of the modern Middle East A detailed examination of the legacy of Islam Analysis of the political and social aspects of Middle Eastern life, including alienation between the state and society, poverty and social inequality, and ideological crisis and renewal Case studies on countries in the Fertile Crescent (Iraq, Syria and Lebanon, and Israel/Palestine); the Northern Belt (Turkey and Iran); and those West and East of the Red Sea (Egypt and the members of the Gulf Cooperation Council) A key introductory text for students of Middle Eastern politics and history at advanced undergraduate and postgraduate levels, this new edition has been extensively updated to also become a timely and significant reference for policy-makers and any motivated reader.

Security Politics in the Gulf Monarchies

David B. Roberts
Security Politics in the Gulf Monarchies Book PDF

Author : David B. Roberts
Publisher : Columbia University Press
Page : 483 pages
File Size : 42,9 Mb
Release : 2023-04-18
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 9780231555913

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Security Politics in the Gulf Monarchies by David B. Roberts Pdf

The Gulf monarchies—Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, Oman, and the United Arab Emirates—play crucial roles in world markets and politics. Their economies, which have traditionally been driven by oil revenues, have simultaneously propelled transformative change and preserved the traditional order. Fossil fuel wealth has underwritten an implicit social contract characterized by generous welfare states, ruler-centric politics, and a heavy state presence in the economy, facilitating stability during tumultuous times. However, as the transition toward renewable energy looms, will the Gulf monarchies be able to adapt? David B. Roberts offers a definitive guide to continuity and change in the Gulf region. He explores the forces challenging and bolstering the status quo across the political, social, economic, military, and environmental dimensions of security. Roberts examines the six monarchies individually and holistically, considering their recent histories and contemporary concerns. Beneath wide-ranging changes affecting these countries, he pinpoints key dynamics and structures that have persisted over the long term. The book examines key topics such as generational change in leadership, migrant workers, female labor force participation, U.S. military influence, and the multifaceted threat of climate change. Roberts scrutinizes how a move away from the oil-centered economic model could reverberate across the social spectrum, with profound implications for security. Suitable for a range of courses and offering important new insights for experts, this book is an accessible and up-to-date overview of the politics of a key world region.

The Future of Economic Development in the Gulf Cooperation Council States

Weshah Razzak
The Future of Economic Development in the Gulf Cooperation Council States Book PDF

Author : Weshah Razzak
Publisher : Taylor & Francis
Page : 181 pages
File Size : 46,7 Mb
Release : 2022-07-22
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781000618518

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The Future of Economic Development in the Gulf Cooperation Council States by Weshah Razzak Pdf

The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries own 30 percent of the world’s proven oil reserves and largely depend on oil for their income. Yet the GCC faces serious challenges. The global demand for oil is expected to continue declining, and the average long-run oil price could become lower than its historical average in the future. This book is a research-based, structural macroeconomic analysis, providing evidence-based and future-facing policy recommendations for GCC governments. First, it analyzes historical data to explain the macroeconomic performance and economic policies of the GCC countries from 1970 to 2019. Then it presents ten-year dynamic stochastic projections from 2020 to 2030. The book examines debt sustainability and optimal fiscal policies – i.e., government spending and taxation. It also analyses structural issues, such as savings and productivity, from an institutional perspective, taking into account education, the labor market, and pension funds, as well as other factors that have a close effect on economic performance. The book is comprehensive and thorough, it relies on extensive econometric analyses, including rigorous time series analysis. The author uses both calibration of theoretical models and estimation, facilitating projections for the next decade of key economic variables under different policy scenarios. The book also assesses what the future of the GCC economies will look like if climate change and the COVID-19 pandemic continue to adversely affect oil supply and demand and the price of oil, given their current policies and institutions. As well as scholars and researchers of economics and finance, the book will engage policymakers in central banks, treasury departments, planning councils, research institutes, and think tanks.

The Economy of Saudi Arabia in the 21st Century

John Sfakianakis
The Economy of Saudi Arabia in the 21st Century Book PDF

Author : John Sfakianakis
Publisher : Oxford University Press
Page : 354 pages
File Size : 46,7 Mb
Release : 2024-03-28
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9780192609335

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The Economy of Saudi Arabia in the 21st Century by John Sfakianakis Pdf

This book is about Saudi Arabia's efforts to overhaul its economy and the numerous prospects and challenges it faces in doing so. As one of the world's leading oil producers, the outcomes of the most ambitious wave of reforms Saudi Arabia has ever undertaken will provide valuable lessons not only for the kingdom itself but also for other oil-dependent and resource-based economies. Since 2016, Saudi Arabia has embarked on an unparalleled economic - if not social and political - transformation project with an ultimate aim of diversifying away from oil. New sources of growth such as tourism, industry, and entertainment have been identified, but it remains to be seen whether these will be enough to sustain the economy in the post-oil era. Reforms, including lowering energy subsidies, instituting VAT, and introducing indirect taxes on labor and businesses, have already produced notable results. Looking ahead, the economy requires rigorous and continuous processes of severe competition amongst its private sector participants as well as strong institutions. It also requires creative destruction to be allowed to run its course within the wider economy. The economic reform experiment undertaken by Saudi Arabia remains the most sweeping among emerging market economies - and certainly in the entire Middle East. The changes are all encompassing and involve a complex redrawing of the political, economic, religious, and social map.

What Next for Britain in the Middle East?

Michael Stephens,Christopher Phillips
What Next for Britain in the Middle East Book PDF

Author : Michael Stephens,Christopher Phillips
Publisher : Bloomsbury Publishing
Page : 273 pages
File Size : 54,6 Mb
Release : 2021-08-26
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 9780755617180

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What Next for Britain in the Middle East? by Michael Stephens,Christopher Phillips Pdf

As the UK enters a period of intense public introspection in the wake of Brexit, this book takes on one of the key questions emerging from the divisive process: what is Britain's place in the world? The Middle East is one of the regions the UK has been most engaged in historically. This book assesses the drivers of foreign policy successes and failures and asks if there is a way to revitalise British influence in the region, and if this is even desirable. The book analyses the values, trade and security concerns that drive the UK's foreign policy. There are separate chapters on the non- Arab powers – Israel, Turkey and Iran – as well as chapters on the Middle Eastern Arab states and regions including the Gulf, Iraq, Egypt, and Syria and the Levant. The contributions are from leading specialists in the field: Rosemary Hollis, Michael Clarke, Ian Black, Bill Park, Christopher Phillips, Sanam Vakil, Michael Stephens and Louise Kettle. They each explain and re-assess the declining western influence and continued instability in the region and what this means for the UK's priorities and strategy towards the MENA. This is an essential book for policy makers, journalists and researchers focused on foreign policy towards the Middle East.

United Arab Emirates: 2021 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; and Staff Report

International Monetary,International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
United Arab Emirates 2021 Article IV Consultation Press Release and Staff Report Book PDF

Author : International Monetary,International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 67 pages
File Size : 51,7 Mb
Release : 2022-02-17
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9798400202834

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United Arab Emirates: 2021 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; and Staff Report by International Monetary,International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept. Pdf

A swift policy response helped mitigate the economic impact of the twin COVID-19 and oil price shocks and contain the initial spread of the virus. A gradual recovery driven by the non-oil sector is underway, following a deep recession in 2020. Fiscal and external balances have improved with recent oil price increases. The UAE is among the world leaders in delivering vaccinations, with nearly 85 percent of the population fully vaccinated as of October 2021.