The Global Trade Slowdown

Author : Cristina Constantinescu,Aaditya Mattoo,Michele Ruta
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 44 pages
File Size : 49,9 Mb
Release : 2015-01-21
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781498399135

Get Book

The Global Trade Slowdown by Cristina Constantinescu,Aaditya Mattoo,Michele Ruta Pdf

This paper focuses on the sluggish growth of world trade relative to income growth in recent years. The analysis uses an empirical strategy based on an error correction model to assess whether the global trade slowdown is structural or cyclical. An estimate of the relationship between trade and income in the past four decades reveals that the long-term trade elasticity rose sharply in the 1990s, but declined significantly in the 2000s even before the global financial crisis. These results suggest that trade is growing slowly not only because of slow growth of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), but also because of a structural change in the trade-GDP relationship in recent years. The available evidence suggests that the explanation may lie in the slowing pace of international vertical specialization rather than increasing protection or the changing composition of trade and GDP.

Author : Aqib Aslam,Ms.Emine Boz,Mr.Eugenio M Cerutti,Mr.Marcos Poplawski-Ribeiro,Petia Topalova
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 37 pages
File Size : 51,7 Mb
Release : 2017-11-15
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781484328989

Get Book

The Slowdown in Global Trade: A Symptom of A Weak Recovery by Aqib Aslam,Ms.Emine Boz,Mr.Eugenio M Cerutti,Mr.Marcos Poplawski-Ribeiro,Petia Topalova Pdf

Global trade growth has slowed since 2012 relative both to its strong historical performance and to overall economic growth. This paper aims to quantify the role of weak economic growth and changes in its decomposition in accounting for the slowdown in trade using a reduced form and a structural approach. Both analytical investigations suggest that the overall weakness in economic activity, particularly investment, has been the primary restraint on trade growth, accounting for over 80 percent of the decline in the growth of the volume of goods trade between 2012–16 and 2003–07. However, other factors are also weighing on trade in recent years, especially in emerging market and developing economies, as evidenced by the non-negligible role attributed to trade costs by the structural approach.

Author : Board of Governors of the Federal Reserv,Jerome H. Jerome H. Powell
Publisher : Createspace Independent Publishing Platform
Page : 34 pages
File Size : 48,7 Mb
Release : 2016-11-18
Category : Electronic
ISBN : 1542904471

Get Book

The Global Trade Slowdown and Its Implications for Emerging Asia by Board of Governors of the Federal Reserv,Jerome H. Jerome H. Powell Pdf

The global economy is at a critical juncture today. According to the International Monetary Fund's latest World Economic Outlook, global gross domestic product (GDP) is set to grow at only 3.1 percent this year, the lowest rate of growth since the Global Financial Crisis. Investment and productivity remain subdued, despite extremely low and even negative interest rates in many economies. One key aspect of global weakness that is of particular relevance to emerging Asian economies is the sharp slowdown in global trade. This slowdown represents a notable departure from the "normal" times of the past few decades, and is the subject of my remarks today.

Author : Gee Hee Hong,Mr.Jaewoo Lee,Wei Liao,MissDulani Seneviratne
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 46 pages
File Size : 48,5 Mb
Release : 2016-05-26
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781484368565

Get Book

China and Asia in Global Trade Slowdown by Gee Hee Hong,Mr.Jaewoo Lee,Wei Liao,MissDulani Seneviratne Pdf

Asia and China made disproportionate contributions to the slowdown of global trade growth in 2015. China’s import growth slowed starkly, driven by both external and domestic factors, including a rebalancing of demand. Econometric results point to weak investment and rebalancing as the main causes of the import slowdown. Spillover effects from China’s rebalancing are estimated for some 60 countries using value-added trade data, and are found to be more negative on Asia and commodity exporters than others.

Author : Richard E. Baldwin,Simon J. Evenett
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 112 pages
File Size : 40,5 Mb
Release : 2011-03
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 1907142231

Get Book

The Collapse of Global Trade, Murky Protectionism, and the Crisis by Richard E. Baldwin,Simon J. Evenett Pdf

The global financial crisis of 2008/9 is the Great Depression of the 21st century. For many though, the similarities stop at the Wall Street Crash as the current generation of policymakers have acted quickly to avoid the mistakes of the past. Yet the global crisis has made room for mistakes all of its own. While governments have apparently kept to their word on refraining from protectionist measures in the style of 1930s tariffs, there has been a disturbing rise in "murky protectionism." Seemingly benign, these crisis-linked policies are twisted to favour domestic firms, workers and investors. This book, first published as an eBook on VoxEU.org in March 2009, brings together leading trade policy practitioners and experts - including Australian Trade Minister Simon Crean and former Mexican President Ernesto Zedillo. Initially its aim was to advise policymakers heading in to the G20 meeting in London, but since the threat of murky protectionism persists, so too do their warnings.

Author : Cristina Constantinescu
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 26 pages
File Size : 43,5 Mb
Release : 2016
Category : Globalization
ISBN : OCLC:956428604

Get Book

Does the Global Trade Slowdown Matter? by Cristina Constantinescu Pdf

Since the Global Financial Crisis, world trade growth has been subdued and lagging slightly behind growth of gross domestic product. Trade is growing more slowly not only because growth of global gross domestic product is lower, but also because trade itself has become less responsive to gross domestic product. This paper reviews the reasons behind the changing trade-income relationship, and then investigates its consequences for economic growth. On the demand side, sluggish world import growth may adversely affect individual countries' economic growth, as it limits opportunities for their exports. On the supply side, slower trade may diminish the scope for productivity growth through increasing specialization and diffusion of technologies. The paper finds preliminary evidence that the changing trade-income relationship matters, although the quantifiable effects do not appear to be large.

Author : Richard E. Baldwin
Publisher : CEPR
Page : 246 pages
File Size : 43,9 Mb
Release : 2009
Category : Commercial policy
ISBN : 9781907142062

Get Book

The Great Trade Collapse: Causes, Consequences and Prospects by Richard E. Baldwin Pdf

Author : International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 208 pages
File Size : 49,8 Mb
Release : 2019-10-15
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781513516172

Get Book

World Economic Outlook, October 2019 by International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. Pdf

Global growth is forecast at 3.0 percent for 2019, its lowest level since 2008–09 and a 0.3 percentage point downgrade from the April 2019 World Economic Outlook.

Author : Peter A.G. van Bergeijk
Publisher : Edward Elgar Publishing
Page : 224 pages
File Size : 49,9 Mb
Release : 2019
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781788973465

Get Book

Deglobalization 2.0 by Peter A.G. van Bergeijk Pdf

Deglobalization 2.0 argues that Trump and Brexit are the symptoms, and not the causes, of a long sequence of alternating phases of globalization and deglobalization driven by increasing income inequality and the retreat from the global stage by a contested hegemon. Providing rich empirical details, Peter van Bergeijk investigates similarities and differences between the Great Depression of the 1930s and the Great Recession and its aftermath of a slowdown in global trade. Providing an overview of recent findings and a discussion of contributions from several disciplines, the book investigates scenarios for the future of the economic world order and proposes possible solutions.

Author : Marcel Timmer,Bart Los,Robert Stehrer,Gaaitzen J. de Vries
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 128 pages
File Size : 42,6 Mb
Release : 2016
Category : Electronic
ISBN : OCLC:964509792

Get Book

An Anatomy of the Global Trade Slowdown Based on the WIOD 2016 Release by Marcel Timmer,Bart Los,Robert Stehrer,Gaaitzen J. de Vries Pdf

Author : Robert C. Feenstra
Publisher : University of Chicago Press
Page : 603 pages
File Size : 47,7 Mb
Release : 2010-03-10
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9780226239729

Get Book

China's Growing Role in World Trade by Robert C. Feenstra Pdf

In less than three decades, China has grown from playing a negligible role in international trade to being one of the world's largest exporters, a substantial importer of raw materials, intermediate outputs, and other goods, and both a recipient and source of foreign investment. Not surprisingly, China's economic dynamism has generated considerable attention and concern in the United States and beyond. While some analysts have warned of the potential pitfalls of China's rise—the loss of jobs, for example—others have highlighted the benefits of new market and investment opportunities for US firms. Bringing together an expert group of contributors, China's Growing Role in World Trade undertakes an empirical investigation of the effects of China's new status. The essays collected here provide detailed analyses of the microstructure of trade, the macroeconomic implications, sector-level issues, and foreign direct investment. This volume's careful examination of micro data in light of established economic theories clarifies a number of misconceptions, disproves some conventional wisdom, and documents data patterns that enhance our understanding of China's trade and what it may mean to the rest of the world.

Author : Andreas Klasen
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
Page : 624 pages
File Size : 40,7 Mb
Release : 2020-02-03
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 9781119167389

Get Book

The Handbook of Global Trade Policy by Andreas Klasen Pdf

Provides a state-of-the-art overview of international trade policy research The Handbook of Global Trade Policy offers readers a comprehensive resource for the study of international trade policy, governance, and financing. This timely and authoritative work presents contributions from a team of prominent experts that assess the policy implications of recent academic research on the subject. Discussions of contemporary research in fields such as economics, international business, international relations, law, and global politics help readers develop an expansive, interdisciplinary knowledge of 21st century foreign trade. Accessible for students, yet relevant for practitioners and researchers, this book expertly guides readers through essential literature in the field while highlighting new connections between social science research and global policy-making. Authoritative chapters address new realities of the global trade environment, global governance and international institutions, multilateral trade agreements, regional trade in developing countries, value chains in the Pacific Rim, and more. Designed to provide a well-rounded survey of the subject, this book covers financing trade such as export credit arrangements in developing economies, export insurance markets, climate finance, and recent initiatives of the World Trade Organization (WTO). This state-of-the-art overview: Integrates new data and up-to-date research in the field Offers an interdisciplinary approach to examining global trade policy Introduces fundamental concepts of global trade in an understandable style Combines contemporary economic, legal, financial, and policy topics Presents a wide range of perspectives on current issues surrounding trade practices and policies The Handbook of Global Trade Policy is a valuable resource for students, professionals, academics, researchers, and policy-makers in all areas of international trade, economics, business, and finance.

Author : Alistair Dieppe
Publisher : World Bank Publications
Page : 552 pages
File Size : 47,9 Mb
Release : 2021-06-09
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781464816093

Get Book

Global Productivity by Alistair Dieppe Pdf

The COVID-19 pandemic struck the global economy after a decade that featured a broad-based slowdown in productivity growth. Global Productivity: Trends, Drivers, and Policies presents the first comprehensive analysis of the evolution and drivers of productivity growth, examines the effects of COVID-19 on productivity, and discusses a wide range of policies needed to rekindle productivity growth. The book also provides a far-reaching data set of multiple measures of productivity for up to 164 advanced economies and emerging market and developing economies, and it introduces a new sectoral database of productivity. The World Bank has created an extraordinary book on productivity, covering a large group of countries and using a wide variety of data sources. There is an emphasis on emerging and developing economies, whereas the prior literature has concentrated on developed economies. The book seeks to understand growth patterns and quantify the role of (among other things) the reallocation of factors, technological change, and the impact of natural disasters, including the COVID-19 pandemic. This book is must-reading for specialists in emerging economies but also provides deep insights for anyone interested in economic growth and productivity. Martin Neil Baily Senior Fellow, The Brookings Institution Former Chair, U.S. President’s Council of Economic Advisers This is an important book at a critical time. As the book notes, global productivity growth had already been slowing prior to the COVID-19 pandemic and collapses with the pandemic. If we want an effective recovery, we have to understand what was driving these long-run trends. The book presents a novel global approach to examining the levels, growth rates, and drivers of productivity growth. For anyone wanting to understand or influence productivity growth, this is an essential read. Nicholas Bloom William D. Eberle Professor of Economics, Stanford University The COVID-19 pandemic hit a global economy that was already struggling with an adverse pre-existing condition—slow productivity growth. This extraordinarily valuable and timely book brings considerable new evidence that shows the broad-based, long-standing nature of the slowdown. It is comprehensive, with an exceptional focus on emerging market and developing economies. Importantly, it shows how severe disasters (of which COVID-19 is just the latest) typically harm productivity. There are no silver bullets, but the book suggests sensible strategies to improve growth prospects. John Fernald Schroders Chaired Professor of European Competitiveness and Reform and Professor of Economics, INSEAD

Author : International Transport Forum
Publisher : OECD Publishing
Page : 224 pages
File Size : 44,7 Mb
Release : 2017-01-30
Category : Electronic
ISBN : 9789282108000

Get Book

ITF Transport Outlook 2017 by International Transport Forum Pdf

The ITF Transport Outlook provides an overview of recent trends and near-term prospects for the transport sector at a global level, as well as long-term prospects for transport demand to 2050, for freight (maritime, air and surface), passenger transport (car, rail and air) and CO2 emissions.

Author : Robert E. Looney
Publisher : Routledge
Page : 462 pages
File Size : 41,7 Mb
Release : 2018-10-03
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 9781351046930

Get Book

Handbook of International Trade Agreements by Robert E. Looney Pdf

International trade has, for decades, been central to economic growth and improved standards of living for nations and regions worldwide. For most of the advanced countries, trade has raised standards of living, while for most emerging economies, growth did not begin until their integration into the global economy. The economic explanation is simple: international trade facilitates specialization, increased efficiency and improved productivity to an extent impossible in closed economies. However, recent years have seen a significant slowdown in global trade, and the global system has increasingly come under attack from politicians on the right and on the left. The benefits of open markets, the continuation of international co-operation, and the usefulness of multilateral institutions such as the World Trade Organization (WTO), the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank have all been called into question. While globalization has had a broadly positive effect on overall global welfare, it has also been perceived by the public as damaging communities and social classes in the industrialized world, spawning, for example, Brexit and the US exit from the Trans-Pacific Partnership. The purpose of this volume is to examine international and regional preferential trade agreements (PTAs), which offer like-minded countries a possible means to continue receiving the benefits of economic liberalization and expanded trade. What are the strengths and weaknesses of such agreements, and how can they sustain growth and prosperity for their members in an ever-challenging global economic environment? The Handbook is divided into two parts. The first, Global Themes, offers analysis of issues including the WTO, trade agreements and economic development, intellectual property rights, security and environmental issues, and PTAs and developing countries. The second part examines regional and country-specific agreements and issues, including NAFTA, CARICOM, CETA, the Pacific Alliance, the European Union, EFTA, ECOWAS, SADC, TTIP, RCEP and the TPP (now the CPTPP), as well as the policies of countries such as Japan and Australia.