The Impact Of Alternative Input Subsidy Exit Strategies On Malawi S Maize Commodity Market
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The Impact of Alternative Input Subsidy Exit Strategies on Malawis Maize Commodity Market by Mariam A. T. J. Mapila Pdf
This study has been conducted in order to generate evidence of the visibility of exit from farm input subsidies in an African context. The study simulates the impact of alternative exit strategies from Malawis farm input subsidy program on maize markets. The simulation is conducted using a multiequation partial equilibrium model of the national maize market, which is sequentially linked via a price-linkage equation to local rural maize markets. The model accounts for market imperfections prevailing in the country that arise from government price interventions. Findings show that some alternative exit strategies have negative and sustained impacts on maize yields, production, and acreage allocated to maize over the simulation period. Market prices rise steadily as a result of the implementation of different exit strategies. Despite higher maize prices, domestic maize consumption remains fairly stable, with a slow but increasing trend over the simulation period. Results further suggest that exit strategies that are coupled with improvements in agricultural extension services have the potential to offset the negative impacts of the removal or scaling down of agricultural input subsidies. The study findings demonstrate the difficulty of feasibly removing farm input subsidies. Study recommendations are therefore relevant for policymakers and development partners debating removal or implementation of farm input subsidies.
Economywide Impact of Maize Export Bans on Agricultural Growth and Household Welfare in Tanzania by Xinshen Diao,Adam Kennedy,Athur Mabiso,Angga Pradesha Pdf
In recent years, the government of Tanzania, like other governments in Africa south of the Sahara, has periodically banned the export of staple crops (maize) in an attempt to ensure the domestic food supply and protect its citizens from international food price hikes. While this policy seems to be a common response to domestic production shortfalls or to high prices in international or neighboring countries markets, export bans not only have the potential to reduce producer prices locally but also, because the bans are often ad hoc, can cause significant market uncertainty for farmers and the private sector, ultimately making them less responsive in both supply and trade opportunities in the future. While complaints by farmers and traders regarding the export bans frequently appear in the newspapers in Tanzania, few rigorous analyses have been done to quantitatively measure the impacts of the policy. Given this knowledge gap and policy demand, we study the impact of export bans in Tanzania using a computable general equilibrium model. We find that although maize is an important food crop in Tanzania, its contribution to food price inflation is rather limited, and that banning cross-border maize exports lowers the national food price index by only 0.62.4 percent compared with the free-export scenario. The benefits of lower prices are captured primarily by urban households, but maize producer prices decrease by 726 percent, depending on the region. We also find that the export ban decreases the wage rate for low-skilled labor and the returns to land, while returns to nonagricultural capital and wage rate for the skilled labor increase, further hurting poor rural households and thus increasing poverty for the country as a whole.
Efficiency and Productivity Differential Effects of Land Certification Program in Ethiopia by Hosaena Ghebru Hagos,Stein Holden Pdf
security effects (investment effects) and through more efficient input use due to enhanced tradability of the land (factor intensity effect), empirical studies on the size and magnitude of these effects are very scarce. Taking advantage of a unique quasi-experimental survey design, this study analyzes the productivity impacts of the Ethiopian land certification program by identifying how the investment effects (technological gains) would measure up against the benefits from any improvements in input use intensity (technical efficiency). For this purpose, we adopted a data envelopment analysisbased Malmquist-type productivity index to decompose productivity differences into (1) within-group farm efficiency differences, reflecting the technical efficiency effect, and (2) differences in the group production frontier, reflecting the long-term investment (technological) effects. The results show that farms without a land use certificate are, on aggregate, less productive than those with formalized use rights. We found no evidence to suggest this productivity difference is due to inferior technical efficiency. Rather, the reason is down to technological advantages, or a favorable investment effect, from which farm plots with a land use certificate benefit when evaluated against farms not included in the certification program. The low level of within-group efficiency of farms in each group reinforces the argument that certification programs need to be accompanied by complementary measures such as an improved financial and legal institutional framework in order to achieve the promised effects.
Cambodian Agriculture by Timothy S. Thomas,Tin Ponlok,Ros Bansok,Thanakvaro De Lopez,Cathy Chiang,Nang Phirun,Chhim Chhun Pdf
Cambodia has been identified as one of the most vulnerable countries to climate change, given the predicted changes in temperature and precipitation, the share of labor in agriculture, and the countrys low adaptive capacity due to widespread poverty. In this study, we use climate data from four general circulation models (GCMs) to evaluate the impact of climate change on agriculture in Cambodia by 2050. We used the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer crop modeling software to evaluate crop yields, first for the 19502000 period (actual climate) and then for the climates given by the four GCMs for 2050. We evaluated crop yields for eight different crops at 2,162 points in Cambodia, using a grid of 10-kilometer squares, for 2000 and 2050. For each crop, we searched for the best cultivar (variety) in each square, rather than assuming the same cultivar to be used in all locations. We also searched for the best planting month in each square. We explored potential gains from changing fertilizer levels and from using irrigation to compensate for rainfall changes. This analysis indicates that when practiced together, using improved cultivars better suited for the changing climate conditions and adjusting planting dates can lessen the impact of climate change on yields, including for both wet- and dry-season rice. In addition, the analysis shows that losses in yield due to climate change can be compensated forfor many cropsby increasing the availability of nitrogen in the soil. To provide context to the modeling analysis, a survey of 45 communes was conducted using focus group discussions to solicit information on agricultural practices. Questions were asked about fertilizer, irrigation, seeds, tillage, and pest management, as well as about natural disasters and how farmers respond. Key results indicate that in response to extreme weather, only 7 to 16 percent of farmers report changing crop variety and only 20 percent of farmers report changing planting dates. Since the modeling results indicate that adaptation to climate change by changing crop variety and planting dates will be critical in order to avoid yield losses over the next 40 years, it is recommended that farmers expand their capacity to adapt in this way. In addition, every commune reported using some type of chemical fertilizer; however, in a typical commune, only 50 percent of the farmers were using any chemical fertilizer. This indicates that there is room to increase the use of chemical fertilizers. Finally, focus group participants were asked to name the top three natural disasters of concern. Drought was the most cited, reported in 44 of the 45 communes (98 percent), while flooding was cited in 67 percent of the communes surveyed. Despite this, in fully 58 percent of the communes, farmers reported taking no action in response to floods. In response to drought, farmers reported switching to other crops in 16 percent of the communes, and changed planting dates in 19 percent, while only 7 percent of the communes reported no adaptation in farming practices. These findings indicate the need for intervention to help farmers deal with floods in particular, and to determine whether strategies for adapting to drought are the best suited to mitigate crop loss.
Sustainability of EU Food Safety Certification by Catherine Ragasa,Suzanne Thornsbury,Satish Joshi Pdf
This study aims to understand the implications of stricter food safety regulations and certification systems to the food industry and to find ways to manage risks and costs associated with these regulations and systems. This paper empirically examines the timing of initial decisions to adopt food safety systems and subsequent decisions to maintain the certification. Survival models are used to evaluate firm-level decisions among seafood processors in the Philippines. Whereas initial certification decisions were influenced mainly by easily obtainable a priori indicators such as output price, scale of production, and association membership, decisions to continue certification were influenced by a larger number of less-visible factors including price differentials across markets and cost structures. Managerial hubris may have played a role in initial certification decisions, but decertification decisions were more informed by realized costbenefit comparisons.
Cost-Benefit Analysis of the African Risk Capacity Facility by Daniel J. Clarke,Ruth Vargas Hill Pdf
Governments play a key role in supporting populations affected by natural disasters, including rebuilding infrastructure to ensure continued services and scaling-up public safety nets to prevent widespread hunger and poverty. However, the traditional approach of limiting greater spending to the aftermath of a disaster has many drawbacks. External support from bilateral or multilateral donors can be slow and unreliable. Private sector reinsurance can be prohibitively expensive. And reallocating budgets toward recovery and reconstruction is typically a slow process that can even hurt long-term development by drawing resources away from effective programs. Some countries are trying to mitigate this liability by banding together and creating sovereign catastrophe risk pools that allow governments to coordinate with one another to insure their uncertain fiscal liabilities at lower cost. Countries contribute to the pool, which then provides payments if an insured natural disaster strikes. The African Risk Capacity (ARC), has been proposed as a pan-Africa drought risk pool to insure against drought risk in Africa south of the Sahara. If fully operationalized, the ARC will mark a major change in how donors fund emergency support to countries in Africa during times of need. In this paper, we undertake a cost-benefit analysis of the ARC pool and discuss how lessons can inform the design of the ARC.
Mara van den Bold,Agnes R. Quisumbing,Stuart Gillespie
Author : Mara van den Bold,Agnes R. Quisumbing,Stuart Gillespie Publisher : Intl Food Policy Res Inst Page : 80 pages File Size : 53,9 Mb Release : 2013-11-01 Category : Social Science ISBN : 8210379456XXX
Womens Empowerment and Nutrition by Mara van den Bold,Agnes R. Quisumbing,Stuart Gillespie Pdf
Many development programs that aim to alleviate poverty and improve investments in human capital consider womens empowerment a key pathway by which to achieve impact and often target women as their main beneficiaries. Despite this, womens empowerment dimensions are often not rigorously measured and are at times merely assumed. This paper starts by reflecting on the concept and measurement of womens empowerment and then reviews some of the structural interventions that aim to influence underlying gender norms in society and eradicate gender discrimination. It then proceeds to review the evidence of the impact of three types of interventionscash transfer programs, agricultural interventions, and microfinance programson womens empowerment, nutrition, or both. Qualitative evidence on conditional cash transfer (CCT) programs generally points to positive impacts on womens empowerment, although quantitative research findings are more heterogenous. CCT programs produce mixed results on long-term nutritional status, and very limited evidence exists of their impacts on micronutrient status. The little evidence available on unconditional cash transters (UCT) indicates mixed impacts on womens empowerment and positive impacts on nutrition; however, recent reviews comparing CCT and UCT programs have found little difference in terms of their effects on stunting and they have found that conditionality is less important than other factors, such as access to healthcare and child age and sex. Evidence of cash transfer program impacts depending on the gender of the transfer recipient or on the conditionality is also mixed, although CCTs with non-health conditionalities seem to have negative impacts on nutritional status. The impacts of programs based on the gender of the transfer recipient show mixed results, but almost no experimental evidence exists of testing gender-differentiated impacts of a single program. Agricultural interventionsspecifically home gardening and dairy projectsshow mixed impacts on womens empowerment measures such as time, workload, and control over income; but they demonstrate very little impact on nutrition. Implementation modalities are shown to determine differential impacts in terms of empowerment and nutrition outcomes. With regard to the impact of microfinance on womens empowerment, evidence is also mixed, although more recent reviews do not find any impact on womens empowerment. The impact of microfinance on nutritional status is mixed, with no evidence of impact on micronutrient status. Across all three types of programs (cash transfer programs, agricultural interventions, and microfinance programs), very little evidence exists on pathways of impact, and evidence is often biased toward a particular region. The paper ends with a discussion of the findings and remaining evidence gaps and an outline of recommendations for research.
Land Constraints and Agricultural Intensification in Ethiopia by Derek Headey,Mekdim Dereje,Jacob Ricker-Gilbert,Anna Josephson,Alemayehu Seyoum Taffesse Pdf
Highland Ethiopia is one of the most densely populated regions of Africa and has long been associated with both Malthusian disasters and Boserupian agricultural intensification. This paper explores the race between these two countervailing forces, with the goal of informing two important policy questions. First, how do rural Ethiopians adapt to land constraints? And second, do land constraints significantly influence welfare outcomes in rural Ethiopia? To answer these questions we use a recent household survey of high-potential areas. We first show that farm sizes are generally very small in the Ethiopian highlands and declining over time, with young rural households facing particularly severe land constraints. We then ask whether smaller and declining farm sizes are inducing agricultural intensification, and if so, how. We find strong evidence in favor of the Boserupian hypothesis that land-constrained villages typically use significantly more purchased input costs per hectare and more family labor, and achieve higher maize and teff yields and high gross income per hectare. However, although these higher inputs raise gross revenue, we find no substantial impact of greater land constraints on net farm income per hectare once family labor costs are accounted for. Moreover, farm sizes are strongly positively correlated with net farm income, suggesting that land constraints are an important cause of rural poverty. We conclude with some broad policy implications of our results.
An Evaluation of Poverty Prevalence in China by Chunni Zhang,Qi Xu,Xiang Zhou,Xiaobo Zhang,Yu Xie Pdf
Knowledge of actual poverty prevalence is important for any society concerned with improving public welfare and reducing poverty. In this paper, we calculate and compare the poverty incidence rate in China using four nationally representative surveys: the China Family Panel Studies (CFPS) of 2010, the Chinese General Social Survey (CGSS) of 2010, the Chinese Household Finance Survey (CHFS) of 2011, and the Chinese Household Income Project (CHIP) of 2007. Using both international and official domestic poverty standards, we show that poverty prevalence at the national, rural, and urban levels based on the CFPS, CGSS, and the CHFS are much higher than the official estimation and those based on the CHIP. The study highlights the importance of using independent datasets to validate official statistics of public and policy concern in contemporary China.
Agricultural Commercialization, Land Expansion, and Homegrown Large-Scale Farmers by Antony Chapoto,Athur Mabiso,Adwinmea Bonsu Pdf
The past decade has seen several African countries increasing their agricultural growth, a trend largely underpinned by increases in land area cultivated instead of productivity increases. Meanwhile, scholars debate whether Africa should pursue a strategy of large-scale or smallholder farms, paying little attention to a special group of smallholder farmers who have transitioned to become medium- and large-scale farmers. This study, therefore, begins to analyze this group of farmers, using qualitative data from in-depth interviews and focus group discussions in Ghana. We analyze their characteristics, ingredients of farm-size expansion, and commercialization. Numerous insights are gained and hypotheses formulated for future research. One important insight is that with the right attitude, exposure, and discipline, it is possible for smallholder farmers to increase their farm size and commercialize regardless of initial farm enterprise choice. However, to transition, initial farm size and farming system appear critical, with farmers in areas of low population density and flat topography more likely to acquire larger farming land. The transition, however, occurs gradually over 20 to 30 years, with mean annual land acquisition rates ranging from 0.3 to 24.3 acres per year. In the transition process, large- and medium-scale farmers are found to increase their use of modern farm inputs (such as fertilizer and high-yielding seed varieties) and agricultural technologies (such as tractors and processing machinery) and appear more productive than smallholder farmers. Additional quantitative analyses using representative survey data are, however, needed to substantiate the observed qualitative patterns and to further understand the trajectories of farm size expansion and the implications for agricultural productivity and commercialization.
Welfare and Poverty Impacts of Indias National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme by Klaus Deininger,Yanyan Liu Pdf
Indias National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme (NREGS) is one of the largest public works programs globally. Understanding the impacts of NREGS and the pathway through which its impacts are realized thus has important policy implications. We use a three-round 4,000-household panel from Andhra Pradesh together with administrative data to explore short- and medium-term poverty and welfare effects of NREGS. Triple difference estimates suggest that participants significantly increase consumption (protein and energy intake) in the short run and accumulate more nonfinancial assets in the medium term. Direct benefits exceed program-related transfers and are most pronounced for scheduled castes and tribes and households supplying casual labor. Asset creation via program-induced land improvements is consistent with a medium-term increase in assets by nonparticipants and increases in wage income in excess of program cost.
Links between Tenure Security and Food Security by Hosaena Ghebru Hagos,Stein Holden Pdf
While numerous studies exist that evaluate the impacts of land reform on household investment behavior, land productivity, and land rental market activities, the literature is thin in terms of showing the direct food securities impacts of land tenure reforms. This study, thus, uses five rounds of household panel data from Tigray, Ethiopia, collected in the period 19982010 to assess the impacts of a land registration and certification program that aimed to strengthen tenure security and how it has contributed to increased food availability and thus food security in this food-deficit region. Our first survey took place just a year before the intervention (the land certification program). Our panel data in combination with the years of certificate ownership variable allow us to assess the dynamic impacts on food (calorie) availability of strengthened tenure security. Anthropometric data also allow us to assess potential child nutrition impacts of the reform 812 years after its implementation. Results show that land certification appears to have contributed to enhanced calorie availability (calorie intake), and more so for female-headed households, either through enhanced land rental market participation or increased investment and productivity on owner-operated land. Results also show that members of households that accessed additional land through the land rental market had a significantly higher body mass index. Though results show that land rental market participation is enhancing production efficiency, high transaction costs in that market suggest there are still unrealized gains from trade. Thus, the recent restrictive regional land law that allows for only short-term rental contracts and does not allow more than 50 percent of land to be rented out may threaten future tenure security and may undermine the benefits from the existing tenure reform.
The Impact of Food Price Shocks in Uganda by Bjorn Van Campenhout,Karl Pauw,Nicholas Minot Pdf
In developing countries, all too often policies formulated in response to high food prices are inspired by ideology instead of evidence-based policy research. We look at the immediate effects of these shocks faced by households in Uganda on their poverty and well-being. In addition, we look at the economywide impact in the long run when all markets have settled at a new equilibrium. We find that in the short run, poverty has increased substantially. However, in the longer run, we find welfare levels of rural farm households in particular to rise sharply, primarily as a result of increased returns to farm labor and agricultural land coupled with improved market prices for output sold. These results call for policies that aim to protect the most vulnerable against high food prices and extreme volatility in the short run, without eliminating the incentives of steadily rising commodity prices for longer-run structural agricultural development.
Agriculture and Adaptation in Bangladesh by Timothy S. Thomas,Khandaker Mainuddin,Catherine Chiang,Aminur Rahman,Anwarul Haque,Nazria Islam,Saad Quasem,Yan Sun Pdf
Bangladesh is extremely vulnerable to the impact of climate change because it is a low-lying, flat country subject to both riverine flooding and sea level rise, and because a large portion of its population is dependent on agriculture for its livelihood. The goal of this research was to examine the likely impacts of climate change on agriculture in Bangladesh, and develop recommendations to policymakers to help farmers adapt to the changes. In this study, we use climate data from four general circulation models (GCMs) to evaluate the impact of climate change on agriculture in Bangladesh by 2050. We use the DSSAT (Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer) crop modeling software to evaluate crop yields, first for the 1950 to 2000 period (actual climate) and then for the climates given by the four GCMs for 2050. We evaluate crop yields at 1,789 different points in Bangladesh, using a grid composed of roughly 10 kilometer (km) squares, for 8 different crops in 2000 and 2050. For each crop, we search for the best cultivar (variety) at each square, rather than limiting our analysis to a single variety for all locations. We also search for the best planting month in each square. In addition, we explore potential gains in changing fertilizer levels and in using irrigation to compensate for rainfall changes. This analysis indicates that when practiced together, using cultivars better suited for climate change and adjusting planting dates can lessen the impacts of climate change on yields, especially for rice, and in some cases actually result in higher yields. In addition, the analysis shows that losses in yield due to climate change can be compensated for, for many crops, by increasing the availability of nitrogen in the soil. Moreover, we used a household survey to collect information on the incidence of climatic shocks in the last five years and adaptation options. The survey was conducted from December 2010 to February 2011, covering data from the previous production year. The results confirm that Bangladesh farmers already perceive the impacts of climate change. In particular, the survey results indicate that of all climate changerelated shocks, floods, waterlogging, and river erosion caused the largest loss to rice production. Farmers in our survey lost around 12 percent of their harvest, on average, to some kind of shock, with about half of that attributable to flooding-related issues. The second leading cause of rice crop loss was pests, responsible for around 3 percent of production. Taken together, the results indicate that adaptation efforts in Bangladesh should include adjusting planting dates, using improved cultivars better suited for climate change, improving fertilizer application, exploring increased maize production, and bolstering flood and pest protection for farmers.
