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A history and critical assessment of leading indicators reveals their indelible impact on the economy, public policy, and other critical decisions, discussing their shortcomings while making suggestions for reducing dependence on them.
Leading Economic Indicators by Kajal Lahiri,Geoffrey H. Moore Pdf
Developed fifty years ago by the National Bureau of Economic Research, the analytic methods of business cycles and economic indicators enable economists to forecast economic trends by examining the repetitive sequences that occur in business cycles. The methodology has proven to be an inexpensive and useful tool that is now used extensively throughout the world. In recent years, however, significant new developments have emerged in the field of business cycles and economic indicators. This volume contains twenty-two articles by international experts who are working with new and innovative approaches to indicator research. They cover advances in three broad areas of research: the use of new developments in economic theory and time-series analysis to rationalise existing systems of indicators; more appropriate methods to evaluate the forecasting records of leading indicators, particularly of turning point probability; and the development of new indicators.
How did we come by the “leading indicators” we place such stock in? We allocate trillions of dollars and make public policy and personal decisions based upon them, but what do they really tell us? “The leading indicators” shape our lives intimately, but few of us know where these numbers come from, what they mean, or why they rule the world. GDP, inflation, unemployment, trade, and a host of averages determine whether we feel optimistic or pessimistic about the country’s future and our own. They dictate whether businesses hire and invest, or fire and hunker down, whether governments spend trillions or try to reduce debt, whether individuals marry, buy a car, get a mortgage, or look for a job. Zachary Karabell tackles the history and the limitations of each of our leading indicators. The solution is not to invent new indicators, but to become less dependent on a few simple figures and tap into the data revolution. We have unparalleled power to find the information we need, but only if we let go of the outdated indicators that lead and mislead us.
"A project has to have a goal, otherwise, how do you know you're done? In the old days of engineering, setting project goals wasn't that hard. But when you're making software products, done is less obvious. When is Microsoft Word done? When is Google done? Or Facebook? In reality, software systems are never done. So then how do we give teams a goal that they can work on? Mostly, we simply ask teams to build features-but features are the wrong way to go. We often build features that create no value. Instead, we need to give teams an outcome to achieve. Setting goals as outcomes sounds simple, but it can be hard to do in practice. This book is a practical guide to using outcomes to guide the work of your team"--Publisher's website.
Guidelines on Producing Leading, Composite and Sentiment Indicators by United Nations Pdf
Leading, composite and sentiment indicators offer a powerful way of communication of statistical information and reaching out to users of statistics. The indicators can provide relevant and timely information on aspects of the economy and the social society that are not covered by other statistics. They can also provide information on complex phenomena in simple and condensed form, for instance on the current or expected economic development or on the well-being or sense of happiness of the citizens. These Guidelines provide guidance to statistical offices on their possible roles in developing and producing leading, composite and sentiment indicators and give practical and operational guidance to statistical offices that produce or consider producing these indicators. Existing examples of good practice are also referenced.
From near-extinction in the early eighties, Harley-Davidson rose to worldwide recognition and is still today one of the great, iconic American motorcycle brands. In this insider guide, former Harley-Davidson executive Dantar Oosterwal offers an exclusive look at how Harley-Davidson was able to adapt in an ever-changing world to stay on top and stay in existence. In The Lean Machine, readers learn about Harley-Davidson’s secret weapon and go-to formula for outstanding success: Knowledge-Based Product Development. Rooted in Japanese productivity improvement techniques, this method helped Harley realize an unprecedented fourfold increase in throughput in half the time--powering annual growth of more than ten percent. Winner of the 2017 Shingo Prize for Literature, The Lean Machine--which is part business journal, part analysis, and part step-by-step toolkit--takes readers through the day-to-day transformation at Harley and identifies universal change and improvement issues so that companies in any industry can incorporate this game-changing system--with predictably excellent results.
The 12 Week Year Field Guide by Brian P. Moran,Michael Lennington Pdf
Update your thinking and avoid complacency with the 12 week year Are you ready to change your life? This hands-on template for implementing advice from the game-changing book The 12 Week Year is a study guide that makes it easy for anyone to apply the 12 week year to their own lives. Instead of getting bogged down in annualized thinking that produces pitfalls and saps productivity, follow along with this guide to redefine your “year” to be just 12 weeks long. By doing so, you’ll avoid complacency, begin to focus on what matters most, create better clarity, and develop a sense of urgency so that “now” is always the right time to act. Applicable to business growth, career goals, and life in general, the 12 week plan will help you improve in any—or every—area. By closing the “knowing-doing gap,” you’ll discover how to execute on what you already know and greatly expand the boundaries of your capabilities. Learn to: Create your personal and business visions with step-by-step tips Develop your own 12 week plan by applying what you know to what you do Put over 10 years of field-tested content, exercises, and templates to work for you Build a 12 week commitment and apply the system to your own life and business Take back your life, improve your thinking, and advance your business or career by implementing real-world, hands-on methods in The 12 Week Year Study Guide.
This handbook is a practical manual on the design and implementation of business tendency surveys, which ask company managers about the current situation of their business and about their plans and expectations for the future.
Author : Victor Zarnowitz Publisher : University of Chicago Press Page : 613 pages File Size : 49,5 Mb Release : 2007-11-01 Category : Business & Economics ISBN : 9780226978925
This volume presents the most complete collection available of the work of Victor Zarnowitz, a leader in the study of business cycles, growth, inflation, and forecasting.. With characteristic insight, Zarnowitz examines theories of the business cycle, including Keynesian and monetary theories and more recent rational expectation and real business cycle theories. He also measures trends and cycles in economic activity; evaluates the performance of leading indicators and their composite measures; surveys forecasting tools and performance of business and academic economists; discusses historical changes in the nature and sources of business cycles; and analyzes how successfully forecasting firms and economists predict such key economic variables as interest rates and inflation.
The 4 Disciplines of Execution by Chris McChesney,Sean Covey,Jim Huling Pdf
BUSINESS STRATEGY. "The 4 Disciplines of Execution "offers the what but also how effective execution is achieved. They share numerous examples of companies that have done just that, not once, but over and over again. This is a book that every leader should read! (Clayton Christensen, Professor, Harvard Business School, and author of "The Innovator s Dilemma)." Do you remember the last major initiative you watched die in your organization? Did it go down with a loud crash? Or was it slowly and quietly suffocated by other competing priorities? By the time it finally disappeared, it s likely no one even noticed. What happened? The whirlwind of urgent activity required to keep things running day-to-day devoured all the time and energy you needed to invest in executing your strategy for tomorrow. "The 4 Disciplines of Execution" can change all that forever.
Business Cycle Indicators by Karl Heinrich Oppenländer Pdf
The pressure to produce explanations and forecasts and the economic dichotomies which insist on appearing, lead to a desire to deal with the description, analysis and forecast of the phenomenon of business cycles using economic indicators. This text provides an introduction to business cycles and their theoretical and historical basis. It also includes work on early indicator research and provides examples of business cycle indicators.
Leading Indicators of Currency Crises by Graciela Laura Kaminsky Pdf
This paper examines the empirical evidence on currency crises and proposes a specific early warning system. This system involves monitoring the evolution of several indicators that tend to exhibit an unusual behavior in the periods preceding a crisis. When an indicator exceeds a certain threshold value, this is interpreted as a warning “signal” that a currency crisis may take place within the following 24 months. The variables that have the best track record within this approach include exports, deviations of the real exchange rate from trend, the ratio of broad money to gross international reserves, output, and equity prices.
Economic Indicators For Dummies by Michael Griffis Pdf
Everything you need to easily get a handle on economic indicators In today's volatile, often troubling economic landscape, there are myriad statistics and reports that paint an economic picture that can sometimes resemble a work by Jackson Pollock. These complex and often-conflicting reports could vex even the savviest investor. Economic Indicators For Dummies explains how to interpret and use key global economic indicators to make solid investments, aid in business planning, and help develop informed decisions. In plain English, it breaks down the complex language and statistics to help you make sense of this critical information. You'll discover how to interpret economic data within the context of other sometimes-conflicting reports and statistics, and use the information to make profitable decisions. You'll understand the meaning of such data as employment indices and housing and construction stats and how they affect stocks, bonds, commodities and international markets . . . and how you can use these statistics to make investment decisions as well as plan strategic goals for business growth. Economic Indicators For Dummies breaks down dozens of statistics and patterns to give you a better understanding of how various sources of data and information can be used. Breaks down jargon and statistical concepts Covers how to use publicly available economic indicators to better position your portfolio, improve returns, and make sensible, long-range business plans Discusses the reliability and timeliness of the collected data, while helping investors prioritize the flow of economic information to avoid information overload Whether you're an investor, economics student, or business professional involved in making key strategic decisions for your company, Economic Indicators For Dummies has you covered.
Handbook on Constructing Composite Indicators: Methodology and User Guide by OECD,European Union,European Commission, Joint Research Centre Pdf
A guide for constructing and using composite indicators for policy makers, academics, the media and other interested parties. In particular, this handbook is concerned with indicators which compare and rank country performance.
