The Little Book Of Operational Forecasting

Author : Dr Steve Morlidge
Publisher : Matador
Page : 177 pages
File Size : 42,9 Mb
Release : 2018-06-01
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781789013429

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The Little Book of Operational Forecasting by Dr Steve Morlidge Pdf

Operational forecasting sits at the heart of many businesses because it informs every decision taken to get the right amount of product (or service capacity), in the right place, at the right time. But is also one of the most misunderstood and undervalued activities. As a result, most businesses carry enormous amounts of unnecessary inventory while simultaneously failing to offer their customers the level of service that they expect. So, any efficiency or performance improvement initiative is automatically held back by having to drag around this wastage At best, the managers in these businesses may suspect there is scope for improvement but have no idea how much ‘weight’ they can lose or how to go about shedding it. At worst, they assume that trying harder and investing in more “sophisticated” software will automatically take care of the problem because they are blind to the amount of surplus baggage they are dragging around. This book demystifies operational forecasting through a series of bite sized ‘lessons’ supported by simple illustrations, that address the fundamental questions that anyone with an interest or stake in operational forecasting needs to be able to answer: · Why forecast? · What do we need to understand before we start forecasting? · How do we forecast? · What does success look like? · How can we improve? Aimed primarily at forecasting practitioners and anyone responsible for, or reliant on, what they do, this book also is an excellent primer for anyone wanting to understand the process but not the mathematics that comes with most books on the subject. And if you need extra motivation to keep reading, research has shown that poor forecasting is often the single largest source of corporate waste – adding around 2% to your cost of sales. So, read on – your only risk is becoming a corporate hero!

Author : Stephen A. DeLurgio,Carl Bhame
Publisher : McGraw-Hill Professional Publishing
Page : 680 pages
File Size : 41,7 Mb
Release : 1991
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : MINN:31951D00457225A

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Forecasting Systems for Operations Management by Stephen A. DeLurgio,Carl Bhame Pdf

Author : Spyros G. Makridakis,Steven C. Wheelwright
Publisher : Wiley-Interscience
Page : 666 pages
File Size : 52,6 Mb
Release : 1987-04-03
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : UOM:35128000940997

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The Handbook of Forecasting by Spyros G. Makridakis,Steven C. Wheelwright Pdf

Role and application of forecasting in organizations; Introduction to management forecasting; Sales forecasting requirements; Forecasting requirements for operations planning and control; Capacity planning forecasting requirements; Financial forecasting; Forecasting and strategic planning; Forecasting in the electric utility industry; State and local government revenue forecasting; Population forecasting; Forecasting: the issues; Approaches to forecasting; Smoothing methods for short-term planning and control; A practical overview of arima models for time series forecasting; Decomposition methods for medium term planning annnd budgeting; Econometric methods for managerial applications; Judgemtal and bayesian forecasting; An integrated approach to medium andlong term forecasting: the marketing mix system; Forecasting challenges; Forecasting and the environment: the challenges of rapid change; Price forecasting using experience curves and the product life-cycle concept; Life cycle forecasting; Forecasting recessions; Forecasting macroeconomic variables: an eclectic approach; ; Managing the forecasting functions; Forecasting and planning: an evaluation; Integrating forecasting and decision making; The forecasting audit; The future of forecasting.

Author : Michael Gilliland,Len Tashman,Udo Sglavo
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
Page : 435 pages
File Size : 44,9 Mb
Release : 2021-05-11
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781119782476

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Business Forecasting by Michael Gilliland,Len Tashman,Udo Sglavo Pdf

Discover the role of machine learning and artificial intelligence in business forecasting from some of the brightest minds in the field In Business Forecasting: The Emerging Role of Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning accomplished authors Michael Gilliland, Len Tashman, and Udo Sglavo deliver relevant and timely insights from some of the most important and influential authors in the field of forecasting. You'll learn about the role played by machine learning and AI in the forecasting process and discover brand-new research, case studies, and thoughtful discussions covering an array of practical topics. The book offers multiple perspectives on issues like monitoring forecast performance, forecasting process, communication and accountability for forecasts, and the use of big data in forecasting. You will find: Discussions on deep learning in forecasting, including current trends and challenges Explorations of neural network-based forecasting strategies A treatment of the future of artificial intelligence in business forecasting Analyses of forecasting methods, including modeling, selection, and monitoring In addition to the Foreword by renowned researchers Spyros Makridakis and Fotios Petropoulos, the book also includes 16 "opinion/editorial" Afterwords by a diverse range of top academics, consultants, vendors, and industry practitioners, each providing their own unique vision of the issues, current state, and future direction of business forecasting. Perfect for financial controllers, chief financial officers, business analysts, forecast analysts, and demand planners, Business Forecasting will also earn a place in the libraries of other executives and managers who seek a one-stop resource to help them critically assess and improve their own organization's forecasting efforts.

Author : Michael Gilliland,Len Tashman,Udo Sglavo
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
Page : 419 pages
File Size : 45,7 Mb
Release : 2016-01-05
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781119224563

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Business Forecasting by Michael Gilliland,Len Tashman,Udo Sglavo Pdf

A comprehensive collection of the field's most provocative, influential new work Business Forecasting compiles some of the field's important and influential literature into a single, comprehensive reference for forecast modeling and process improvement. It is packed with provocative ideas from forecasting researchers and practitioners, on topics including accuracy metrics, benchmarking, modeling of problem data, and overcoming dysfunctional behaviors. Its coverage includes often-overlooked issues at the forefront of research, such as uncertainty, randomness, and forecastability, as well as emerging areas like data mining for forecasting. The articles present critical analysis of current practices and consideration of new ideas. With a mix of formal, rigorous pieces and brief introductory chapters, the book provides practitioners with a comprehensive examination of the current state of the business forecasting field. Forecasting performance is ultimately limited by the 'forecastability' of the data. Yet failing to recognize this, many organizations continue to squander resources pursuing unachievable levels of accuracy. This book provides a wealth of ideas for improving all aspects of the process, including the avoidance of wasted efforts that fail to improve (or even harm) forecast accuracy. Analyzes the most prominent issues in business forecasting Investigates emerging approaches and new methods of analysis Combines forecasts to improve accuracy Utilizes Forecast Value Added to identify process inefficiency The business environment is evolving, and forecasting methods must evolve alongside it. This compilation delivers an array of new tools and research that can enable more efficient processes and more accurate results. Business Forecasting provides an expert's-eye view of the field's latest developments to help you achieve your desired business outcomes.

Author : Stephan Kolassa,Enno Siemsen
Publisher : Business Expert Press
Page : 200 pages
File Size : 44,9 Mb
Release : 2016-08-17
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781606495032

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Demand Forecasting for Managers by Stephan Kolassa,Enno Siemsen Pdf

Most decisions and plans in a firm require a forecast. Not matching supply with demand can make or break any business, and that's why forecasting is so invaluable. Forecasting can appear as a frightening topic with many arcane equations to master. For this reason, the authors start out from the very basics and provide a non-technical overview of common forecasting techniques as well as organizational aspects of creating a robust forecasting process. The book also discusses how to measure forecast accuracy to hold people accountable and guide continuous improvement. This book does not require prior knowledge of higher mathematics, statistics, or operations research. It is designed to serve as a first introduction to the non-expert, such as a manager overseeing a forecasting group, or an MBA student who needs to be familiar with the broad outlines of forecasting without specializing in it.

Author : Stephan Kolassa,Bahman Rostami-Tabar,Enno Siemsen
Publisher : CRC Press
Page : 269 pages
File Size : 41,8 Mb
Release : 2023-09-29
Category : Mathematics
ISBN : 9781000958997

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Demand Forecasting for Executives and Professionals by Stephan Kolassa,Bahman Rostami-Tabar,Enno Siemsen Pdf

This book surveys what executives who make decisions based on forecasts and professionals responsible for forecasts should know about forecasting. It discusses how individuals and firms should think about forecasting and guidelines for good practices. It introduces readers to the subject of time series, presents basic and advanced forecasting models, from exponential smoothing across ARIMA to modern Machine Learning methods, and examines human judgment's role in interpreting numbers and identifying forecasting errors and how it should be integrated into organizations. This is a great book to start learning about forecasting if you are new to the area or have some preliminary exposure to forecasting. Whether you are a practitioner, either in a role managing a forecasting team or at operationally involved in demand planning, a software designer, a student or an academic teaching business analytics, operational research, or operations management courses, the book can inspire you to rethink demand forecasting. No prior knowledge of higher mathematics, statistics, operations research, or forecasting is assumed in this book. It is designed to serve as a first introduction to the non-expert who needs to be familiar with the broad outlines of forecasting without specializing in it. This may include a manager overseeing a forecasting group, or a student enrolled in an MBA program, an executive education course, or programs not specialising in analytics. Worked examples accompany the key formulae to show how they can be implemented. Key Features: While there are many books about forecasting technique, very few are published targeting managers. This book fills that gap. It provides the right balance between explaining the importance of demand forecasting and providing enough information to allow a busy manager to read a book and learn something that can be directly used in practice. It provides key takeaways that will help managers to make difference in their companies.

Author : Warren Gilchrist
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
Page : 308 pages
File Size : 54,8 Mb
Release : 1976-01
Category : Prediction theory
ISBN : 0471994030

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Statistical Forecasting by Warren Gilchrist Pdf

The structure of the book is based on the structure of the activi- ties involved in the practice of statistical forecasting. Part i of the book provides a general introduction to some of the devel- opment of statistical forecasting methods applicable to each of a variety of different situations. One chapter considers time series, seasonally varying time series. Part iii deals with further facet. We look at the data that is needed for forecasting, ways in which the forecasting methods may be adapted to apply to a wider range of applications and to give a better quality of forecast. We exa- mine a wide range of methods for analysing and comparing forecast- ing methods. The routine control of an operational forecasting system. Using the methods to create even better forecasts. Inter- relation between forecast and application is explored.

Author : Dr Steve Morlidge
Publisher : Beyond Books Press
Page : 148 pages
File Size : 44,5 Mb
Release : 2023-02-28
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 8210379456XXX

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Cost Matters: How to Manage without Budgets, and help Lean and Agile Fly by Dr Steve Morlidge Pdf

Over the last few decades businesses have learned to use Lean concepts to make their productive processes more responsive and efficient. And Agile approaches have helped them manage innovation and change more effectively, faced with a climate of uncertainty. But while we have new, better ways to manage the practice of work itself the mechanisms used to manage the associated costs using rigid detailed annual budgets have changed very little in a century. This book describes how to manage costs without budgets and all the other bureaucratic paraphernalia of the past. The result is a holistic approach to managing work that helps unleash the power of Lean and Agile. In a series of short lessons supported by simple illustrations Steve demonstrates how to address the day-to-day challenge of managing costs in a world where change and uncertainty are embraced. Rikard Olsson, Managing Director, Beyond Budgeting Advisory. In this book, with a good sense of humour, Steve explains the concepts of Lean, Agile and why the “old habits” of cost control don’t fit. And what would. Peter Coesmans, Chief Agility Officer, Agile Business Consortium. This is a must-read for any Finance professional, and for anyone interested in Lean and Agile. Bjarte Bogsnes, Chairman, Beyond Budgeting Roundtable.

Author : John E. Boylan,Aris A. Syntetos
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
Page : 403 pages
File Size : 49,9 Mb
Release : 2021-06-08
Category : Medical
ISBN : 9781119976080

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Intermittent Demand Forecasting by John E. Boylan,Aris A. Syntetos Pdf

INTERMITTENT DEMAND FORECASTING The first text to focus on the methods and approaches of intermittent, rather than fast, demand forecasting Intermittent Demand Forecasting is for anyone who is interested in improving forecasts of intermittent demand products, and enhancing the management of inventories. Whether you are a practitioner, at the sharp end of demand planning, a software designer, a student, an academic teaching operational research or operations management courses, or a researcher in this field, we hope that the book will inspire you to rethink demand forecasting. If you do so, then you can contribute towards significant economic and environmental benefits. No prior knowledge of intermittent demand forecasting or inventory management is assumed in this book. The key formulae are accompanied by worked examples to show how they can be implemented in practice. For those wishing to understand the theory in more depth, technical notes are provided at the end of each chapter, as well as an extensive and up-to-date collection of references for further study. Software developments are reviewed, to give an appreciation of the current state of the art in commercial and open source software. “Intermittent demand forecasting may seem like a specialized area but actually is at the center of sustainability efforts to consume less and to waste less. Boylan and Syntetos have done a superb job in showing how improvements in inventory management are pivotal in achieving this. Their book covers both the theory and practice of intermittent demand forecasting and my prediction is that it will fast become the bible of the field.” —Spyros Makridakis, Professor, University of Nicosia, and Director, Institute for the Future and the Makridakis Open Forecasting Center (MOFC). “We have been able to support our clients by adopting many of the ideas discussed in this excellent book, and implementing them in our software. I am sure that these ideas will be equally helpful for other supply chain software vendors and for companies wanting to update and upgrade their capabilities in forecasting and inventory management.” —Suresh Acharya, VP, Research and Development, Blue Yonder. “As product variants proliferate and the pace of business quickens, more and more items have intermittent demand. Boylan and Syntetos have long been leaders in extending forecasting and inventory methods to accommodate this new reality. Their book gathers and clarifies decades of research in this area, and explains how practitioners can exploit this knowledge to make their operations more efficient and effective.” —Thomas R. Willemain, Professor Emeritus, Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute.

Author : Keith Ord,Robert Fildes,Nikos Kourentzes
Publisher : Wessex, Incorporated
Page : 588 pages
File Size : 50,7 Mb
Release : 2017-06
Category : Business forecasting
ISBN : 0999064916

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Principles of Business Forecasting--2nd Ed by Keith Ord,Robert Fildes,Nikos Kourentzes Pdf

This second edition of Principles of Business Forecasting by Keith Ord, Robert Fildes, and newest author Nikolaos Kourentzes serves as both a textbook for students and as a reference book for experienced forecasters in a variety of fields. The authors' motivation for writing this book, is to give users the tools and insight to make the most effective forecasts drawing on the latest research ideas, without being overly technical. The book is unique in its design, providing an introduction to both standard and advanced forecasting methods, as well as a focus on general principles to guide and simplify forecasting practice for those with little or no professional experience. One of the book's key strengths is the emphasis on real data sets, which have been updated in this second edition. These data sets are taken from government and business sources and are used throughout in the chapter examples and exercises. Forecasting techniques are demonstrated using a variety of software platforms beyond just "R," and a companion website provides easy-to-use Excel(R) macros that users can access to conduct analyses. Another important innovation in the second edition is the tutorial support for using open-source R programs, making all the methods available for use both in courses and practice. After the introductory chapters, the focus shifts to using extrapolative methods (exponential smoothing and ARIMA), then to statistical model-building using multiple regression. The authors also cover more novel techniques including data mining and judgmental methods, which are gaining increasing attention in applications. The second edition also offers expanded material on data analytics, in particular neural nets together with software, and applications that include new research findings relevant and immediately applicable to operations, such as hierarchical modeling and temporal aggregation. Finally, the authors examine organizational issues of implementation and the development of a forecasting support system within an organization; relevant to every manager, or future manager, who must make plans or decisions based on forecasts. Please take a moment to review the companion website for additional content in the Appendices (Basic Statistical Concepts, overview of Forecasting Software, and Forecasting in R: Tutorial and Examples) the many data sets referenced in the chapters, macros such as the Exponential Smoothing and Trend Curve Marcos and Time Series Neural Network Analysis and student study materials.

Author : Michael Gilliland,Len Tashman,Udo Sglavo
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
Page : 432 pages
File Size : 49,7 Mb
Release : 2021-04-28
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781119782582

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Business Forecasting by Michael Gilliland,Len Tashman,Udo Sglavo Pdf

Discover the role of machine learning and artificial intelligence in business forecasting from some of the brightest minds in the field In Business Forecasting: The Emerging Role of Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning accomplished authors Michael Gilliland, Len Tashman, and Udo Sglavo deliver relevant and timely insights from some of the most important and influential authors in the field of forecasting. You'll learn about the role played by machine learning and AI in the forecasting process and discover brand-new research, case studies, and thoughtful discussions covering an array of practical topics. The book offers multiple perspectives on issues like monitoring forecast performance, forecasting process, communication and accountability for forecasts, and the use of big data in forecasting. You will find: Discussions on deep learning in forecasting, including current trends and challenges Explorations of neural network-based forecasting strategies A treatment of the future of artificial intelligence in business forecasting Analyses of forecasting methods, including modeling, selection, and monitoring In addition to the Foreword by renowned researchers Spyros Makridakis and Fotios Petropoulos, the book also includes 16 "opinion/editorial" Afterwords by a diverse range of top academics, consultants, vendors, and industry practitioners, each providing their own unique vision of the issues, current state, and future direction of business forecasting. Perfect for financial controllers, chief financial officers, business analysts, forecast analysts, and demand planners, Business Forecasting will also earn a place in the libraries of other executives and managers who seek a one-stop resource to help them critically assess and improve their own organization's forecasting efforts.

Author : Steve Morlidge,Steve Player
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
Page : 328 pages
File Size : 46,9 Mb
Release : 2010-02-19
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9780470662212

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Future Ready by Steve Morlidge,Steve Player Pdf

The recent crisis in the financial markets has exposed serious flaws in management methods. The failure to anticipate and deal with the consequences of the unfolding collapse has starkly illustrated what many leaders and managers in business have known for years; in most organizations, the process of forecasting is badly broken. For that reason, forecasting business performance tops the list of concerns for CFO's across the globe. It is time to rethink the way businesses organize and run forecasting processes and how they use the insights that they provide to navigate through these turbulent times. This book synthesizes and structures findings from a range of disciplines and over 60 years of the authors combined practical experience. This is presented in the form of a set of simple strategies that any organization can use to master the process of forecasting. The key message of this book is that while no mortal can predict the future, you can take the steps to be ready for it. ’Good enough’ forecasts, wise preparation and the capability to take timely action, will help your organization to create its own future. Written in an engaging and thought provoking style, Future Ready leads the reader to answers to questions such as: What makes a good forecast? What period should a forecast cover? How frequently should it be updated? What information should it contain? What is the best way to produce a forecast? How can you avoid gaming and other forms of data manipulation? How should a forecast be used? How do you ensure that your forecast is reliable? How accurate does it need to be? How should you deal with risk and uncertainty What is the best way to organize a forecast process? Do you need multiple forecasts? What changes should be made to other performance management processes to facilitate good forecasting? Future Ready is an invaluable guide for practicing managers and a source of insight and inspiration to leaders looking for better ways of doing things and to students of the science and craft of management. Praise for Future Ready "Will make a difference to the way you think about forecasting going forward" —Howard Green, Group Controller Unilever PLC "Great analogies and stories are combined with rock solid theory in a language that even the most reading-averse manager will love from page one" —Bjarte Bogsnes, Vice President Performance Management Development at StatoilHydro "A timely addition to the growing research on management planning and performance measurement." —Dr. Charles T. Horngren, Edmund G. Littlefield Professor of Accounting Emeritus Stanford University and author of many standard texts including Cost Accounting: A Managerial Emphasis, Introduction to Management Accounting, and Financial Accounting "In the area of Forecasting, it is the best book in the market." —Fritz Roemer. Leader of Enterprise Performance Executive Advisory Program, the Hackett Group

Author : Lavra Filipek
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 0 pages
File Size : 47,5 Mb
Release : 2015-08
Category : Forecasting
ISBN : 1681171910

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Introduction to Time Series Analysis and Forecasting by Lavra Filipek Pdf

A time series is a collection of data recorded over a period of timeweekly, monthly, quarterly, or yearly. Forecasting the level of sales, both short-term and long-term, is practically dictated by the very nature of business organizations. Competition for the consumer's dollar, stress on earning a profit for the stockholders, a desire to procure a larger share of the market, and the ambitions of executives are some of the prime motivating forces in business. Thus, a forecast is necessary to have the raw materials, production facilities, and staff available to meet the projected demand. Time series analysis can be applied to real-valued, continuous data, discrete numeric data, or discrete symbolic. Analyzing time oriented data and forecasting future values of a time series are among the most important problems that analysis face in many fields ranging from finance and economics to managing production operations. The emphasis of this book is on time series analysis and forecasting. This book is intended for practitioners who make real world forecasts. Time series analysis has got attention of many researches from different fields, such as business administration, economics, public finances. Forecasting is an important activity in economics, commerce, marketing and various branches of science. This book, Introduction to Time Series Analysis and Forecasting, is concerned with forecasting methods based on the use of time-series analysis. It is primarily intended as a reference source for practitioners and researchers in forecasting, who could, for example, be statisticians, econometricians, operational researchers, management scientists or decision scientists.

Author : Chaman L. Jain & Jack Malehorn
Publisher : Institute of Business Forec
Page : 516 pages
File Size : 48,6 Mb
Release : 2005
Category : Business forecasting
ISBN : 0932126758

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Practical Guide to Business Forecasting by Chaman L. Jain & Jack Malehorn Pdf