Intermittent Demand Forecasting

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Intermittent Demand Forecasting

Author : John E. Boylan,Aris A. Syntetos
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
Page : 403 pages
File Size : 55,6 Mb
Release : 2021-06-02
Category : Medical
ISBN : 9781119135302

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Intermittent Demand Forecasting by John E. Boylan,Aris A. Syntetos Pdf

INTERMITTENT DEMAND FORECASTING The first text to focus on the methods and approaches of intermittent, rather than fast, demand forecasting Intermittent Demand Forecasting is for anyone who is interested in improving forecasts of intermittent demand products, and enhancing the management of inventories. Whether you are a practitioner, at the sharp end of demand planning, a software designer, a student, an academic teaching operational research or operations management courses, or a researcher in this field, we hope that the book will inspire you to rethink demand forecasting. If you do so, then you can contribute towards significant economic and environmental benefits. No prior knowledge of intermittent demand forecasting or inventory management is assumed in this book. The key formulae are accompanied by worked examples to show how they can be implemented in practice. For those wishing to understand the theory in more depth, technical notes are provided at the end of each chapter, as well as an extensive and up-to-date collection of references for further study. Software developments are reviewed, to give an appreciation of the current state of the art in commercial and open source software. “Intermittent demand forecasting may seem like a specialized area but actually is at the center of sustainability efforts to consume less and to waste less. Boylan and Syntetos have done a superb job in showing how improvements in inventory management are pivotal in achieving this. Their book covers both the theory and practice of intermittent demand forecasting and my prediction is that it will fast become the bible of the field.” —Spyros Makridakis, Professor, University of Nicosia, and Director, Institute for the Future and the Makridakis Open Forecasting Center (MOFC). “We have been able to support our clients by adopting many of the ideas discussed in this excellent book, and implementing them in our software. I am sure that these ideas will be equally helpful for other supply chain software vendors and for companies wanting to update and upgrade their capabilities in forecasting and inventory management.” —Suresh Acharya, VP, Research and Development, Blue Yonder. “As product variants proliferate and the pace of business quickens, more and more items have intermittent demand. Boylan and Syntetos have long been leaders in extending forecasting and inventory methods to accommodate this new reality. Their book gathers and clarifies decades of research in this area, and explains how practitioners can exploit this knowledge to make their operations more efficient and effective.” —Thomas R. Willemain, Professor Emeritus, Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute.

Intermittent Demand Forecasting

Author : John E. Boylan,Aris A. Syntetos
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
Page : 403 pages
File Size : 47,6 Mb
Release : 2021-06-08
Category : Medical
ISBN : 9781119976080

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Intermittent Demand Forecasting by John E. Boylan,Aris A. Syntetos Pdf

INTERMITTENT DEMAND FORECASTING The first text to focus on the methods and approaches of intermittent, rather than fast, demand forecasting Intermittent Demand Forecasting is for anyone who is interested in improving forecasts of intermittent demand products, and enhancing the management of inventories. Whether you are a practitioner, at the sharp end of demand planning, a software designer, a student, an academic teaching operational research or operations management courses, or a researcher in this field, we hope that the book will inspire you to rethink demand forecasting. If you do so, then you can contribute towards significant economic and environmental benefits. No prior knowledge of intermittent demand forecasting or inventory management is assumed in this book. The key formulae are accompanied by worked examples to show how they can be implemented in practice. For those wishing to understand the theory in more depth, technical notes are provided at the end of each chapter, as well as an extensive and up-to-date collection of references for further study. Software developments are reviewed, to give an appreciation of the current state of the art in commercial and open source software. “Intermittent demand forecasting may seem like a specialized area but actually is at the center of sustainability efforts to consume less and to waste less. Boylan and Syntetos have done a superb job in showing how improvements in inventory management are pivotal in achieving this. Their book covers both the theory and practice of intermittent demand forecasting and my prediction is that it will fast become the bible of the field.” —Spyros Makridakis, Professor, University of Nicosia, and Director, Institute for the Future and the Makridakis Open Forecasting Center (MOFC). “We have been able to support our clients by adopting many of the ideas discussed in this excellent book, and implementing them in our software. I am sure that these ideas will be equally helpful for other supply chain software vendors and for companies wanting to update and upgrade their capabilities in forecasting and inventory management.” —Suresh Acharya, VP, Research and Development, Blue Yonder. “As product variants proliferate and the pace of business quickens, more and more items have intermittent demand. Boylan and Syntetos have long been leaders in extending forecasting and inventory methods to accommodate this new reality. Their book gathers and clarifies decades of research in this area, and explains how practitioners can exploit this knowledge to make their operations more efficient and effective.” —Thomas R. Willemain, Professor Emeritus, Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute.

Service Parts Management

Author : Nezih Altay,Lewis A. Litteral
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
Page : 315 pages
File Size : 50,8 Mb
Release : 2011-03-24
Category : Technology & Engineering
ISBN : 9780857290397

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Service Parts Management by Nezih Altay,Lewis A. Litteral Pdf

With the pressure of time-based competition increasing, and customers demanding faster service, availability of service parts becomes a critical component of manufacturing and servicing operations. Service Parts Management first focuses on intermittent demand forecasting and then on the management of service parts inventories. It guides researchers and practitioners in finding better management solutions to their problems and is both an excellent reference for key concepts and a leading resource for further research. Demand forecasting techniques are presented for parametric and nonparametric approaches, and multi echelon cases and inventory pooling are also considered. Inventory control is examined in the continuous and periodic review cases, while the following are all examined in the context of forecasting: • error measures, • distributional assumptions, and • decision trees. Service Parts Management provides the reader with an overview and a detailed treatment of the current state of the research available on the forecasting and inventory management of items with intermittent demand. It is a comprehensive review of service parts management and provides a starting point for researchers, postgraduate students, and anyone interested in forecasting or managing inventory.

Intelligent Decision Technologies

Author : Rui Neves-Silva,Lakhmi C. Jain,Robert J. Howlett
Publisher : Springer
Page : 685 pages
File Size : 51,7 Mb
Release : 2015-06-09
Category : Technology & Engineering
ISBN : 9783319198576

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Intelligent Decision Technologies by Rui Neves-Silva,Lakhmi C. Jain,Robert J. Howlett Pdf

This book presents the 57 papers accepted for presentation at the Seventh KES International Conference on Intelligent Decision Technologies (KES-IDT 2015), held in Sorrento, Italy, in June 2015. The conference consists of keynote talks, oral and poster presentations, invited sessions and workshops on the applications and theory of intelligent decision systems and related areas. The conference provides an opportunity for the presentation and discussion of interesting new research results, promoting knowledge transfer and the generation of new ideas. The book will be of interest to all those whose work involves the development and application of intelligent decision systems.

Change and Chance Embraced

Author : Hans Levenbach
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 424 pages
File Size : 51,8 Mb
Release : 2017-12-23
Category : Electronic
ISBN : 0692945989

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Change and Chance Embraced by Hans Levenbach Pdf

A unified and practical orientation to demand forecasting and demand management for supply chain professionals, students and practitioners. Presentation of forecasting as a process, rather than a series of disconnected techniques, incorporating graphical tools of looking at historical data, data cleaning, and exploratory data analysis. Complementing traditional and modern methods for root-cause analysis and exception handling with 'big data' and predictive analytics.

Business Forecasting

Author : Michael Gilliland,Len Tashman,Udo Sglavo
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
Page : 435 pages
File Size : 49,8 Mb
Release : 2021-05-11
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781119782476

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Business Forecasting by Michael Gilliland,Len Tashman,Udo Sglavo Pdf

Discover the role of machine learning and artificial intelligence in business forecasting from some of the brightest minds in the field In Business Forecasting: The Emerging Role of Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning accomplished authors Michael Gilliland, Len Tashman, and Udo Sglavo deliver relevant and timely insights from some of the most important and influential authors in the field of forecasting. You'll learn about the role played by machine learning and AI in the forecasting process and discover brand-new research, case studies, and thoughtful discussions covering an array of practical topics. The book offers multiple perspectives on issues like monitoring forecast performance, forecasting process, communication and accountability for forecasts, and the use of big data in forecasting. You will find: Discussions on deep learning in forecasting, including current trends and challenges Explorations of neural network-based forecasting strategies A treatment of the future of artificial intelligence in business forecasting Analyses of forecasting methods, including modeling, selection, and monitoring In addition to the Foreword by renowned researchers Spyros Makridakis and Fotios Petropoulos, the book also includes 16 "opinion/editorial" Afterwords by a diverse range of top academics, consultants, vendors, and industry practitioners, each providing their own unique vision of the issues, current state, and future direction of business forecasting. Perfect for financial controllers, chief financial officers, business analysts, forecast analysts, and demand planners, Business Forecasting will also earn a place in the libraries of other executives and managers who seek a one-stop resource to help them critically assess and improve their own organization's forecasting efforts.

Inventory Optimization

Author : Nicolas Vandeput
Publisher : Walter de Gruyter GmbH & Co KG
Page : 305 pages
File Size : 42,5 Mb
Release : 2020-08-24
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9783110673999

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Inventory Optimization by Nicolas Vandeput Pdf

In this book . . . Nicolas Vandeput hacks his way through the maze of quantitative supply chain optimizations. This book illustrates how the quantitative optimization of 21st century supply chains should be crafted and executed. . . . Vandeput is at the forefront of a new and better way of doing supply chains, and thanks to a richly illustrated book, where every single situation gets its own illustrating code snippet, so could you. --Joannes Vermorel, CEO, Lokad Inventory Optimization argues that mathematical inventory models can only take us so far with supply chain management. In order to optimize inventory policies, we have to use probabilistic simulations. The book explains how to implement these models and simulations step-by-step, starting from simple deterministic ones to complex multi-echelon optimization. The first two parts of the book discuss classical mathematical models, their limitations and assumptions, and a quick but effective introduction to Python is provided. Part 3 contains more advanced models that will allow you to optimize your profits, estimate your lost sales and use advanced demand distributions. It also provides an explanation of how you can optimize a multi-echelon supply chain based on a simple—yet powerful—framework. Part 4 discusses inventory optimization thanks to simulations under custom discrete demand probability functions. Inventory managers, demand planners and academics interested in gaining cost-effective solutions will benefit from the "do-it-yourself" examples and Python programs included in each chapter. Events around the book Link to a De Gruyter Online Event in which the author Nicolas Vandeput together with Stefan de Kok, supply chain innovator and CEO of Wahupa; Koen Cobbaert, Director in the S&O Industry practice of PwC Belgium; Bram Desmet, professor of operations & supply chain at the Vlerick Business School in Ghent; and Karl-Eric Devaux, Planning Consultant, Hatmill, discuss about models for inventory optimization. The event will be moderated by Eric Wilson, Director of Thought Leadership for Institute of Business Forecasting (IBF): https://youtu.be/565fDQMJEEg

Improving Forecasts with Integrated Business Planning

Author : Ganesh Sankaran,Federico Sasso,Robert Kepczynski,Alessandro Chiaraviglio
Publisher : Springer
Page : 421 pages
File Size : 45,6 Mb
Release : 2019-03-05
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9783030053819

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Improving Forecasts with Integrated Business Planning by Ganesh Sankaran,Federico Sasso,Robert Kepczynski,Alessandro Chiaraviglio Pdf

This book provides both a broad overview of the forecasting process, covering technological and human aspects alike, and deep insights into algorithms and platform functionalities in the IBP toolbox required to maximize forecast accuracy. Rich in technical and business explanations, it addresses short-, medium- and long-term forecasting processes using functionalities available in demand planning and demand sensing. There are also several theoretical concepts underpinning the algorithms discussed; these are explained with numerical examples to help demystify the IBP forecasting toolbox. Beyond standard procedures, the book also discusses custom approaches (e.g. new segmentation criteria, new outlier detection and correction methods) and new methods (e.g. the use of Markov chains for forecasting sporadic demands), etc. It subsequently benchmarks common practices using these innovative approaches and discusses the results. As measurement is an important precondition for improvement, an entire chapter is devoted to discussing process improvement and value using the Six Sigma methodology. In closing, the book provides several useful tips and tricks that should come in handy during project implementation.

Demand Forecasting and Inventory Control

Author : Colin Lewis
Publisher : Routledge
Page : 172 pages
File Size : 46,9 Mb
Release : 2012-05-23
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781136346835

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Demand Forecasting and Inventory Control by Colin Lewis Pdf

This practical book covers the forecasting- and inventory control methods used in commercial, retail and manufacturing companies. Colin Lewis explains the theory and practice of current demand forecasting methods, the links between forecasts produced as a result of analysing demand data and the various methods by which this information, together with cost information on stocked items, is used to establish the controlling parameters of the most commonly used inventory control systems. The demand forecasting section of the book concentrates on the family of short-term forecasting models based on the exponentially weighted average and its many variants and also a group of medium-term forecasting models based on a time series, curve fitting approach. The inventory control sections investigate the re-order level policy and re-order cycle policy and indicate how these two processes can be operated at minimum cost while offering a high level of customer service.

Forecasting: principles and practice

Author : Rob J Hyndman,George Athanasopoulos
Publisher : OTexts
Page : 380 pages
File Size : 50,8 Mb
Release : 2018-05-08
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9780987507112

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Forecasting: principles and practice by Rob J Hyndman,George Athanasopoulos Pdf

Forecasting is required in many situations. Stocking an inventory may require forecasts of demand months in advance. Telecommunication routing requires traffic forecasts a few minutes ahead. Whatever the circumstances or time horizons involved, forecasting is an important aid in effective and efficient planning. This textbook provides a comprehensive introduction to forecasting methods and presents enough information about each method for readers to use them sensibly.

Demand Forecasting for Managers

Author : Stephan Kolassa,Enno Siemsen
Publisher : Business Expert Press
Page : 200 pages
File Size : 54,9 Mb
Release : 2016-08-17
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781606495032

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Demand Forecasting for Managers by Stephan Kolassa,Enno Siemsen Pdf

Most decisions and plans in a firm require a forecast. Not matching supply with demand can make or break any business, and that's why forecasting is so invaluable. Forecasting can appear as a frightening topic with many arcane equations to master. For this reason, the authors start out from the very basics and provide a non-technical overview of common forecasting techniques as well as organizational aspects of creating a robust forecasting process. The book also discusses how to measure forecast accuracy to hold people accountable and guide continuous improvement. This book does not require prior knowledge of higher mathematics, statistics, or operations research. It is designed to serve as a first introduction to the non-expert, such as a manager overseeing a forecasting group, or an MBA student who needs to be familiar with the broad outlines of forecasting without specializing in it.

Data Science for Supply Chain Forecasting

Author : Nicolas Vandeput
Publisher : Walter de Gruyter GmbH & Co KG
Page : 338 pages
File Size : 46,5 Mb
Release : 2021-03-22
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9783110671209

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Data Science for Supply Chain Forecasting by Nicolas Vandeput Pdf

Using data science in order to solve a problem requires a scientific mindset more than coding skills. Data Science for Supply Chain Forecasting, Second Edition contends that a true scientific method which includes experimentation, observation, and constant questioning must be applied to supply chains to achieve excellence in demand forecasting. This second edition adds more than 45 percent extra content with four new chapters including an introduction to neural networks and the forecast value added framework. Part I focuses on statistical "traditional" models, Part II, on machine learning, and the all-new Part III discusses demand forecasting process management. The various chapters focus on both forecast models and new concepts such as metrics, underfitting, overfitting, outliers, feature optimization, and external demand drivers. The book is replete with do-it-yourself sections with implementations provided in Python (and Excel for the statistical models) to show the readers how to apply these models themselves. This hands-on book, covering the entire range of forecasting—from the basics all the way to leading-edge models—will benefit supply chain practitioners, forecasters, and analysts looking to go the extra mile with demand forecasting. Events around the book Link to a De Gruyter Online Event in which the author Nicolas Vandeput together with Stefan de Kok, supply chain innovator and CEO of Wahupa; Spyros Makridakis, professor at the University of Nicosia and director of the Institute For the Future (IFF); and Edouard Thieuleux, founder of AbcSupplyChain, discuss the general issues and challenges of demand forecasting and provide insights into best practices (process, models) and discussing how data science and machine learning impact those forecasts. The event will be moderated by Michael Gilliland, marketing manager for SAS forecasting software: https://youtu.be/1rXjXcabW2s

Managing Intermittent Demand

Author : Torben Engelmeyer
Publisher : Springer
Page : 157 pages
File Size : 51,7 Mb
Release : 2016-05-02
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9783658140625

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Managing Intermittent Demand by Torben Engelmeyer Pdf

This work aims to increase the service level and to reduce the inventory costs by combining the forecast and inventory model into one consistent forecast-based inventory model. This new model is based on the prediction of the future probability distribution by assuming an integer-valued autoregressive process as demand process. The developed algorithms can be used to identify, estimate, and predict the demand as well as optimize the inventory decision of intermittent demand series. In an extensive simulation study the new model is compared with a wide range of conventional forecast/inventory model combinations. By using the consistent approach, the mean inventory level is lowered whereas the service level is increased. Additionally, a modern multi-criteria inventory classification scheme is presented to distinguish different demand series clusters.

Advances in Production Management Systems. Smart Manufacturing for Industry 4.0

Author : Ilkyeong Moon,Gyu M. Lee,Jinwoo Park,Dimitris Kiritsis,Gregor von Cieminski
Publisher : Springer
Page : 502 pages
File Size : 51,7 Mb
Release : 2018-08-24
Category : Computers
ISBN : 9783319997070

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Advances in Production Management Systems. Smart Manufacturing for Industry 4.0 by Ilkyeong Moon,Gyu M. Lee,Jinwoo Park,Dimitris Kiritsis,Gregor von Cieminski Pdf

The two-volume set IFIP AICT 535 and 536 constitutes the refereed proceedings of the International IFIP WG 5.7 Conference on Advances in Production Management Systems, APMS 2018, held in Seoul, South Korea, in August 2018. The 129 revised full papers presented were carefully reviewed and selected from 149 submissions. They are organized in the following topical sections: lean and green manufacturing; operations management in engineer-to-order manufacturing; product-service systems, customer-driven innovation and value co-creation; collaborative networks; smart production for mass customization; global supply chain management; knowledge based production planning and control; knowledge based engineering; intelligent diagnostics and maintenance solutions for smart manufacturing; service engineering based on smart manufacturing capabilities; smart city interoperability and cross-platform implementation; manufacturing performance management in smart factories; industry 4.0 - digital twin; industry 4.0 - smart factory; and industry 4.0 - collaborative cyber-physical production and human systems.

Applied Data Mining for Forecasting Using SAS(R)

Author : Tim Rey ,Arthur Kordon,Chip Wells
Publisher : SAS Institute
Page : 336 pages
File Size : 50,8 Mb
Release : 2012-07-02
Category : Computers
ISBN : 9781612900933

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Applied Data Mining for Forecasting Using SAS(R) by Tim Rey ,Arthur Kordon,Chip Wells Pdf

Applied Data Mining for Forecasting Using SAS, by Tim Rey, Arthur Kordon, and Chip Wells, introduces and describes approaches for mining large time series data sets. Written for forecasting practitioners, engineers, statisticians, and economists, the book details how to select useful candidate input variables for time series regression models in environments when the number of candidates is large, and identifies the correlation structure between selected candidate inputs and the forecast variable. This book is essential for forecasting practitioners who need to understand the practical issues involved in applied forecasting in a business setting. Through numerous real-world examples, the authors demonstrate how to effectively use SAS software to meet their industrial forecasting needs. This book is part of the SAS Press program.