The Macroeconomic Effects Of Trade Tariffs

Author : Jesper Lindé,Mr.Andrea Pescatori
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 54 pages
File Size : 40,5 Mb
Release : 2017-07-07
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781484306116

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The Macroeconomic Effects of Trade Tariffs by Jesper Lindé,Mr.Andrea Pescatori Pdf

We study the robustness of the Lerner symmetry result in an open economy New Keynesian model with price rigidities. While the Lerner symmetry result of no real effects of a combined import tariff and export subsidy holds up approximately for a number of alternative assumptions, we obtain quantitatively important long-term deviations under complete international asset markets. Direct pass-through of tariffs and subsidies to prices and slow exchange rate adjustment can also generate significant short-term deviations from Lerner. Finally, we quantify the macroeconomic costs of a trade war and find that they can be substantial, with permanently lower income and trade volumes. However, a fully symmetric retaliation to a unilaterally imposed border adjustment tax can prevent any real or nominal effects.

Author : Lukas Boer,Malte Rieth
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 76 pages
File Size : 45,7 Mb
Release : 2024-01-19
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9798400265143

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The Macroeconomic Consequences of Import Tariffs and Trade Policy Uncertainty by Lukas Boer,Malte Rieth Pdf

We estimate the macroeconomic effects of import tariffs and trade policy uncertainty in the United States, combining theory-consistent and narrative sign restrictions in Bayesian SVARs. We find mostly adverse consequences of protectionism, in aggregate and across sectors and regions. Tariff shocks are more important than trade policy uncertainty shocks. Tariff shocks depress trade, investment, and output persistently. The general equilibrium import elasticity is –0.8. Historically, NAFTA/WTO raised output by 1-3% for twenty years. Undoing the 2018/19 measures would raise output by 4% over three years. The findings imply higher gains of trade than partial equilibrium or static trade models.

Author : Davide Furceri,Swarnali Ahmed Hannan,Mr.Jonathan David Ostry,Mr.Andrew K. Rose
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 57 pages
File Size : 49,5 Mb
Release : 2019-01-15
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781484390061

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Macroeconomic Consequences of Tariffs by Davide Furceri,Swarnali Ahmed Hannan,Mr.Jonathan David Ostry,Mr.Andrew K. Rose Pdf

We study the macroeconomic consequences of tariffs. We estimate impulse response functions from local projections using a panel of annual data that spans 151 countries over 1963-2014. We find that tariff increases lead, in the medium term, to economically and statistically significant declines in domestic output and productivity. Tariff increases also result in more unemployment, higher inequality, and real exchange rate appreciation, but only small effects on the trade balance. The effects on output and productivity tend to be magnified when tariffs rise during expansions, for advanced economies, and when tariffs go up, not down. Our results are robust to a large number of perturbations to our methodology, and we complement our analysis with industry-level data.

Author : Jesper Lindé,Andrea Pescatori
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 128 pages
File Size : 49,9 Mb
Release : 2019
Category : Electronic
ISBN : OCLC:1090090304

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The Macroeconomic Effects of Trade Tariffs by Jesper Lindé,Andrea Pescatori Pdf

Author : Davide Furceri,Swarnali A. Hannan,Jonathan D. Ostry,Andrew K. Rose
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 54 pages
File Size : 46,9 Mb
Release : 2018
Category : Industrial productivity
ISBN : OCLC:1080582518

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Macroeconomic Consequences of Tariffs by Davide Furceri,Swarnali A. Hannan,Jonathan D. Ostry,Andrew K. Rose Pdf

We study the macroeconomic consequences of tariffs. We estimate impulse response functions from local projections using a panel of annual data that spans 151 countries over 1963-2014. We find that tariff increases lead, in the medium term, to economically and statistically significant declines in domestic output and productivity. Tariff increases also result in more unemployment, higher inequality, and real exchange rate appreciation, but only small effects on the trade balance. The effects on output and productivity tend to be magnified when tariffs rise during expansions, for advanced economies, and when tariffs go up, not down. Our results are robust to a large number of perturbations to our methodology, and we complement our analysis with industry-level data.

Author : International Monetary Fund
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 98 pages
File Size : 41,7 Mb
Release : 1989-09-08
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781451960266

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Tariffs and the Macroeconomy by International Monetary Fund Pdf

This paper examines the macroeconomic impact of tariffs. Existing theoretical models do not provide clear-cut predictions concerning the co-movement between unilateral tariff changes and a set of macroeconomic variables consisting of the real exchange rate, the trade balance, and the level of output. Three different data sets are found to be consistent with the hypothesis that tariffs have no statistically significant impact on the trade balance, the real exchange rate, or the level of output.

Author : Tom Krebs,Pravin Krishna,William Maloney,William F. Maloney
Publisher : World Bank Publications
Page : 51 pages
File Size : 54,7 Mb
Release : 2005
Category : Commercial policy
ISBN : 8210379456XXX

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Trade Policy, Income Risk and Welfare by Tom Krebs,Pravin Krishna,William Maloney,William F. Maloney Pdf

"This paper studies empirically the relationship between trade policy and individual income risk faced by workers, and uses the estimates of this empirical analysis to evaluate the welfare effect of trade reform. The analysis proceeds in three steps. First, longitudinal data on workers are used to estimate time-varying individual income risk parameters in various manufacturing sectors. Second, the estimated income risk parameters and data on trade barriers are used to analyze the relationship between trade policy and income risk. Finally, a simple dynamic incomplete-market model is used to assess the corresponding welfare costs. In the implementation of this methodology using Mexican data, we find that trade policy changes have a significant short run effect on income risk. Further, while the tariff level has an insignificant mean effect, it nevertheless changes the degree to which macroeconomic shocks affect income risk"--NBER website

Author : Mr.Kanda Naknoi,Mr.Allan D. Brunner
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 50 pages
File Size : 40,7 Mb
Release : 2003-03-01
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781451847536

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Trade Costs, Market Integration, and Macroeconomic Volatility by Mr.Kanda Naknoi,Mr.Allan D. Brunner Pdf

This paper examines the effects of trade costs on macroeconomic volatility. We first construct a dynamic, two-country general equilibrium model, where the degree of market integration depends directly on trade costs (transport costs, tariffs, etc.). The model is a extension of Obstfeld and Rogoff (1995). Naturally, a reduction in trade costs leads to more market integration, as the relative price of foreign goods falls and households increase their consumption of imported goods. In addition, with more market integration, the model predicts that the variability of the real exchange rate should fall, while the variability of the trade balance should increase. Trade costs have ambiguous effects on the volatility of other macro variables, such as income and consumption. Finally, we present some empirical findings that provide mixed support for the model's predictions.

Author : Ramesh Chandra Das
Publisher : Emerald Group Publishing
Page : 285 pages
File Size : 54,7 Mb
Release : 2021-03-09
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781800713161

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Global Tariff War by Ramesh Chandra Das Pdf

Global Tariff War: Economic, Political and Social Implications traces the impacts that global tariff wars in international trade can have on the growth of national economies. Offering a range of perspectives from developing economies, this collection presents a unique insight into this complex area of geo-political and economic practice.

Author : Uwe Lebefromm
Publisher : GRIN Verlag
Page : 76 pages
File Size : 44,5 Mb
Release : 2015-07-09
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9783668012721

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Microeconomic and Macroeconomic Effects of TTIP (Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership) by Uwe Lebefromm Pdf

Research Paper (postgraduate) from the year 2015 in the subject Economics - Foreign Trade Theory, Trade Policy, grade: Excellent, University of Rijeka (Faculty of Economics), course: Postgradute Study for Specialized Master of Controlling, language: English, abstract: The first part is referred to the essential components of TTIP. These include the negotiating institutions, the central regulations and the objectives associated with it. Chapter three forms the core of this essay. In the first part microeconomic effects on selected sectors in the EU and USA are carried out. The used econometric model MIRAGE will be explained and the calculated results are demonstrated. In the second part of chapter three macroeconomic effects are considered, which have been calculated on the basis of the MELITZ model. The central sources of this chapter are the following studies: “Dimensions and Effects of a Transatlantic Free Trade Agreement between the EU and US. from IFO-institute in Munich. To address also effects to third countries, as an example two studies related to turkey and china are used. Chapter 5 gives a summary and check whether the hypothesis of this essay has been proofed.

Author : Neil Vousden
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
Page : 328 pages
File Size : 48,9 Mb
Release : 1990-08-31
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 052134669X

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The Economics of Trade Protection by Neil Vousden Pdf

Over the past two decades there has been a gradual but fundamental change in the nature of trade protection. Even as international negotiation has succeeded in reducing tariffs to low levels, national governments have resorted to a range of increasingly intricate policies to protect their domestic industries from foreign competition. Direct quantitative restrictions on international trade have become particularly widespread. Such nontariff barriers often have very different effects from tariffs and require careful analysis in their own right. This book presents a systematic overview of the modern theory of trade protection. The material in the book divides naturally into four sections. The first section covers trade restrictions in competitive markets, the second trade restrictions and imperfect competition, the third the political economy of trade protection, and the fourth the theory of policy reform. The presentation makes extensive use of diagrams, with the more difficult mathematics included in six appendixes.

Author : Jong-Wha Lee
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 42 pages
File Size : 50,5 Mb
Release : 1992-11-01
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781451851335

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International Trade, Distortions and Long-Run Economic Growth by Jong-Wha Lee Pdf

The links between trade and growth are examined in a neoclassical model of an open economy in which domestic production requires both domestic and imported inputs. The model shows that trade distortions induced by such government policies as tariffs and exchange controls generate cross-country divergences in growth rates and in per capita income over a long transitional period. The empirical results confirm that tariff rates and black market premia, interacting with an estimate of the share of free trade imports, have significant negative effects on the growth rate of per capita income across countries in the orders of magnitude predicted by the model.

Author : Ms.Dora Benedek,Ruud A. de Mooij,Mr.Philippe Wingender
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 41 pages
File Size : 40,7 Mb
Release : 2015-09-30
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781513586359

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Estimating VAT Pass Through by Ms.Dora Benedek,Ruud A. de Mooij,Mr.Philippe Wingender Pdf

This paper estimates the pass through of VAT changes to consumer prices, using a unique dataset providing disaggregated, monthly data on prices and VAT rates for 17 Eurozone countries over 1999-2013. Pass through is much less than full on average, and differs markedly across types of VAT change. For changes in the standard rate, for instance, final pass through is about 100 percent; for reduced rates it is significantly less, at around 30 percent; and for reclassifications it is essentially zero. We also find: differing dynamics of pass through for durables and non-durables; no significant difference in pass through between rate increases and decreases; signs of non-monotonicity in the relationship between pass through and the breadth of the consumption base affected; and indications of significant anticipation effects together with some evidence of lagged effects in the two years around reform. The results are robust against endogeneity and attenuation bias.

Author : Lawrence J. Gitman,Carl Mcdaniel,Amit Shah
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 0 pages
File Size : 43,7 Mb
Release : 2023-05-19
Category : Electronic
ISBN : 1998109313

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Introduction to Business by Lawrence J. Gitman,Carl Mcdaniel,Amit Shah Pdf

Author : Gabriel Srour
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 0 pages
File Size : 50,9 Mb
Release : 2006
Category : Electronic
ISBN : OCLC:1291207291

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The Implications of Trade Barriers for Sectoral Diversification and Macroeconomic Stability in Developing Economies by Gabriel Srour Pdf

The paper examines the implications of lower trade barriers for sectoral diversification and macroeconomic stability in developing economies with a large primary goods sector. It shows that lower trade barriers can have ambiguous effects on macroeconomic stability. It shows also that diversification, in the form of equal distribution of resources between nonprimary sectors, may be counterproductive. In fact, investment in the nonprimary sector with lower trade barriers unambiguously enhances macroeconomic stability in a developing economy that is subject to substantial primary shocks.