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In an efficient market, all stocks should be valued at a price that is consistent with available information. But as financial expert Singal points out, there are circumstances under which certain stocks sell at a price higher or lower than the right price. Here he discusses ten such anomalous prices and shows how investors might--or might not--be able to exploit these situations for profit.
A Random Walk in Physics by Massimo Cencini,Andrea Puglisi,Davide Vergni,Angelo Vulpiani Pdf
This book offers an informal, easy-to-understand account of topics in modern physics and mathematics. The focus is, in particular, on statistical mechanics, soft matter, probability, chaos, complexity, and models, as well as their interplay. The book features 28 key entries and it is carefully structured so as to allow readers to pursue different paths that reflect their interests and priorities, thereby avoiding an excessively systematic presentation that might stifle interest. While the majority of the entries concern specific topics and arguments, some relate to important protagonists of science, highlighting and explaining their contributions. Advanced mathematics is avoided, and formulas are introduced in only a few cases. The book is a user-friendly tool that nevertheless avoids scientific compromise. It is of interest to all who seek a better grasp of the world that surrounds us and of the ideas that have changed our perceptions.
A Random Walk in Physics by Massimo Cencini,Andrea Puglisi,Davide Vergni,Angelo Vulpiani Pdf
This book offers an informal, easy-to-understand account of topics in modern physics and mathematics. The focus is, in particular, on statistical mechanics, soft matter, probability, chaos, complexity, and models, as well as their interplay. The book features 28 key entries and it is carefully structured so as to allow readers to pursue different paths that reflect their interests and priorities, thereby avoiding an excessively systematic presentation that might stifle interest. While the majority of the entries concern specific topics and arguments, some relate to important protagonists of science, highlighting and explaining their contributions. Advanced mathematics is avoided, and formulas are introduced in only a few cases. The book is a user-friendly tool that nevertheless avoids scientific compromise. It is of interest to all who seek a better grasp of the world that surrounds us and of the ideas that have changed our perceptions.
A Non-Random Walk Down Wall Street by Andrew W. Lo,A. Craig MacKinlay Pdf
For over half a century, financial experts have regarded the movements of markets as a random walk--unpredictable meanderings akin to a drunkard's unsteady gait--and this hypothesis has become a cornerstone of modern financial economics and many investment strategies. Here Andrew W. Lo and A. Craig MacKinlay put the Random Walk Hypothesis to the test. In this volume, which elegantly integrates their most important articles, Lo and MacKinlay find that markets are not completely random after all, and that predictable components do exist in recent stock and bond returns. Their book provides a state-of-the-art account of the techniques for detecting predictabilities and evaluating their statistical and economic significance, and offers a tantalizing glimpse into the financial technologies of the future. The articles track the exciting course of Lo and MacKinlay's research on the predictability of stock prices from their early work on rejecting random walks in short-horizon returns to their analysis of long-term memory in stock market prices. A particular highlight is their now-famous inquiry into the pitfalls of "data-snooping biases" that have arisen from the widespread use of the same historical databases for discovering anomalies and developing seemingly profitable investment strategies. This book invites scholars to reconsider the Random Walk Hypothesis, and, by carefully documenting the presence of predictable components in the stock market, also directs investment professionals toward superior long-term investment returns through disciplined active investment management.
Galileo Unbound traces the journey that brought us from Galileo's law of free fall to today's geneticists measuring evolutionary drift, entangled quantum particles moving among many worlds, and our lives as trajectories traversing a health space with thousands of dimensions. Remarkably, common themes persist that predict the evolution of species as readily as the orbits of planets or the collapse of stars into black holes. This book tells the history of spaces of expanding dimension and increasing abstraction and how they continue today to give new insight into the physics of complex systems. Galileo published the first modern law of motion, the Law of Fall, that was ideal and simple, laying the foundation upon which Newton built the first theory of dynamics. Early in the twentieth century, geometry became the cause of motion rather than the result when Einstein envisioned the fabric of space-time warped by mass and energy, forcing light rays to bend past the Sun. Possibly more radical was Feynman's dilemma of quantum particles taking all paths at once — setting the stage for the modern fields of quantum field theory and quantum computing. Yet as concepts of motion have evolved, one thing has remained constant, the need to track ever more complex changes and to capture their essence, to find patterns in the chaos as we try to predict and control our world.
Random Walk: A Modern Introduction by Gregory F. Lawler,Vlada Limic Pdf
Random walks are stochastic processes formed by successive summation of independent, identically distributed random variables and are one of the most studied topics in probability theory. This contemporary introduction evolved from courses taught at Cornell University and the University of Chicago by the first author, who is one of the most highly regarded researchers in the field of stochastic processes. This text meets the need for a modern reference to the detailed properties of an important class of random walks on the integer lattice. It is suitable for probabilists, mathematicians working in related fields, and for researchers in other disciplines who use random walks in modeling.
Statistical Inversion of Electromagnetic Logging Data by Qiuyang Shen,Jiefu Chen,Xuqing Wu,Yueqin Huang,Zhu Han Pdf
This book presents a comprehensive introduction to well logging and the inverse problem. It explores challenges such as conventional data processing methods’ inability to handle local minima issues, and presents the explanations in an easy-to-follow way. The book describes statistical data interpretation by introducing the fundamentals behind the approach, as well as a range of sampling methods. In each chapter, a specific method is comprehensively introduced, together with representative examples. The book begins with basic information on well logging and logging while drilling, as well as a definition of the inverse problem. It then moves on to discuss the fundamentals of statistical inverse methods, Bayesian inference, and a new sampling method that can be used to supplement it, the hybrid Monte Carlo method. The book then addresses a specific problem in the inversion of downhole logging data, and the interpretation of earth model complexity, before concluding with a meta-technique called the tempering method, which serves as a supplement to statistical sampling methods. Given its scope, the book offers a valuable reference guide for drilling engineers, well logging tool physicists, and geoscientists, as well as students in the areas of petroleum engineering and electrical engineering.
Random Walks on Infinite Graphs and Groups by Wolfgang Woess Pdf
The main theme of this book is the interplay between the behaviour of a class of stochastic processes (random walks) and discrete structure theory. The author considers Markov chains whose state space is equipped with the structure of an infinite, locally finite graph, or as a particular case, of a finitely generated group. The transition probabilities are assumed to be adapted to the underlying structure in some way that must be specified precisely in each case. From the probabilistic viewpoint, the question is what impact the particular type of structure has on various aspects of the behaviour of the random walk. Vice-versa, random walks may also be seen as useful tools for classifying, or at least describing the structure of graphs and groups. Links with spectral theory and discrete potential theory are also discussed. This book will be essential reading for all researchers working in stochastic process and related topics.
A lucid, witty, and intelligent guide to modern investment theory, the evidence for and against it, and how to translate theory into practical investment strategies. Explains the ``Random Walk'' or the Efficient Market Hypothesis and shows what it means, where it is true, where it is not -- and how investors can take advantage of the areas in which it is not true to earn greater profits without increased risk. Examines concepts of value, how the numbers can lie, diversification, market risk, out-of-favor stocks, little stocks and market timing. Forbes columnist Kenneth Fisher wrote of Johnson's book: ``Indispensable for those wanting to bypass Wall Street's most common dead ends.''
Do Commodity Futures Help Forecast Spot Prices? by Mr.David A Reichsfeld,Mr.Shaun K. Roache Pdf
We assess the spot price forecasting performance of 10 commodity futures at various horizons up to two years and test whether this performance is affected by market conditions. We reject efficient markets based on in-sample tests but, out-of-sample, we find that the forecast from the futures market is hard to beat. We find that the forecasting performance of futures does not depend on the slope of the futures curve, in contrast to the predictions of well-known models of commodity markets. We also find futures' forecasting performance to be invariant to whether prices are in an upswing or downswing, casting doubt on aspersions that uninformed investors participating during bull markets impede the price discovery process.
Monte Carlo Principles and Neutron Transport Problems by Jerome Spanier,Ely M. Gelbard Pdf
This two-part treatment introduces the general principles of the Monte Carlo method within a unified mathematical point of view, applying them to problems in neutron transport. It describes several efficiency-enhancing approaches, including the method of superposition and simulation of the adjoint equation based on reciprocity. The first half of the book presents an exposition of the fundamentals of Monte Carlo methods, examining discrete and continuous random walk processes and standard variance reduction techniques. The second half of the text focuses directly on the methods of superposition and reciprocity, illustrating their applications to specific neutron transport problems. Topics include the computation of thermal neutron fluxes and the superposition principle in resonance escape computations.
Computer Science - Theory and Applications by Volker Diekert,Mikhail Volkov,Andrei Voronkov Pdf
This book features the refereed proceedings of the 2nd International Symposium on Computer Science in Russia held in September 2007. The 35 papers cover theory track deals with algorithms, protocols, and data structures; complexity and cryptography; formal languages, automata and their applications to computer science; computational models and concepts; proof theory; and applications of logic to computer science. Many applications are presented.
