The Threat Of Inadvertent Nuclear War In South Asia

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The Threat of Inadvertent Nuclear War in South Asia

Matthew G. Gurgel
The Threat of Inadvertent Nuclear War in South Asia Book PDF

Author : Matthew G. Gurgel
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 103 pages
File Size : 40,5 Mb
Release : 2001-03-01
Category : First strike (Nuclear strategy)
ISBN : 1423529944

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The Threat of Inadvertent Nuclear War in South Asia by Matthew G. Gurgel Pdf

This thesis assesses the potential for a specific type of accidental nuclear conflict between India and Pakistan. Known as inadvertent war, such a conflict would be the result of a mistaken attempt at preemption, the launching of a nuclear attack by one nation in the mistaken belief that the other was doing likewise or was about to do so. While nuclear weapons can ordinarily be expected to exert a sobering influence on decision-makers, an escalating spiral of military activity during a crisis may generate different situational imperatives. Inadvertent war becomes possible when decision- makers perceive that conflict is inevitable and that there is a significant advantage in striking first. Evidence suggests that there is good reason for concern about the threat of inadvertent nuclear war in South Asia. The nuclear force structures adopted by India and Pakistan can be expected to exert a particularly strong influence on the potential for both of the necessary conditions for inadvertent war. The current arsenals of these countries, small and heavily dependant upon aircraft for weapons delivery, may invite preemption in the event that nuclear war appears imminent. If India and Pakistan increase their nuclear delivery capabilities by deploying nuclear-armed ballistic missiles, the potential for inadvertent war will be even greater. In the context of a military confrontation in South Asia, ballistic missiles are likely to contribute both to perceptions of first-strike advantage and to reinforcing military alerts that can lead to the belief that nuclear war is inevitable.

Assessing the Risk of Inadvertent Nuclear War Between India and Pakistan

Stephen A. Smith
Assessing the Risk of Inadvertent Nuclear War Between India and Pakistan Book PDF

Author : Stephen A. Smith
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 108 pages
File Size : 46,7 Mb
Release : 2002-12-01
Category : India
ISBN : 1423505808

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Assessing the Risk of Inadvertent Nuclear War Between India and Pakistan by Stephen A. Smith Pdf

Conventional warfare between India and Pakistan could inadvertently escalate to nuclear warfare. Asymmetries in military doctrine and capability undermine deterrence stability and could lead to the use of nuclear weapons if the two nations become engaged in a large-scale conventional conflict. Following the 1998 nuclear weapons test, the 1999 Kargil Conflict played out tinder the nuclear umbrella, but remained very limited. However, there is a growing gap in conventional military capabilities, and growing pressure in India to retaliate against Pakistan for its alleged support of terrorism and insurgency. India has invested heavily in force modernization, potentially changing the scope of conventional military operations and leading to Pakistan's inadvertent use of nuclear weapons. This thesis examines the possibility of inadvertent nuclear escalation between India and Pakistan. It analyzes the deterrence system that is evolving in South Asia, and describes the conditions tinder which the system could fail. Large-scale conventional war could threaten the survival of strategic forces, or threaten vital strategic command and control functions. Finally, Pakistan could adopt a launch-on-warning posture to guard against an Indian pre-emptive attack. This thesis concludes by recommending steps that the United States could take to ensure peace and decrease de-stabilizing factors in the region.

Second Strike

Rajesh Rajagopalan
Second Strike Book PDF

Author : Rajesh Rajagopalan
Publisher : Viking
Page : 264 pages
File Size : 55,5 Mb
Release : 2005
Category : History
ISBN : UOM:39015064120671

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Second Strike by Rajesh Rajagopalan Pdf

In May 1998 India tested a series of nuclear devices in Pokharan. Two weeks later Pakistan announced a matching series of its own tests. A year later, when the two countries had a bitter confrontation in Kargil, the worst fears of 'proliferation pessimists' appeared to be coming true. The alarm bells have never really stopped ringing since then. In Second Strike Rajesh Rajagopalan challenges much of the conventional wisdom on the perceived nuclear danger in the region and suggests that the nuclear situation in South Asia is far less dangerous, and much more stable, than it is generally given credit for. Presenting a threefold case, the author focuses on the impact of nuclear doctrines on stability, a hitherto neglected aspect of the nuclear debate, and argues that Indian and Pakistani doctrines reduce the pressures on the two nuclear forces. Next, he presents the view that the doctrines of the two countries lessen the likelihood of accidents and other dangers such as terrorists stealing nuclear weapons. - the crucial role played by political leaders - and contends that political leaders tighten control over nuclear weapons in critical situations.

Nuclear Risk Reduction Measures and Restraint Regime in South Asia

Zafar Nawaz Jaspal
Nuclear Risk Reduction Measures and Restraint Regime in South Asia Book PDF

Author : Zafar Nawaz Jaspal
Publisher : Manohar Publishers
Page : 118 pages
File Size : 46,9 Mb
Release : 2004
Category : History
ISBN : 8173045690

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Nuclear Risk Reduction Measures and Restraint Regime in South Asia by Zafar Nawaz Jaspal Pdf

This Book Examines The Prospects Of `Nuclear Risk Reduction Measures And A Restraint Regime In South Asia` Which Would Minimize The Risks Of Accidental, Unauthorized, Or Inadvertent Use Of Indian And/Or Pakistani Nuclear Weapons. It Recommends Effective Barriers Against The Danger Of Loose Nukes And Facility-Related Problems. Furthermore, The Book Explains The Nuclear Perils In The South Asian Strategic Environment, Along With Possible Solutions For Viable Nuclear Risk Reduction Measures And A Nuclear Restraint Regime In South Asia.

Inadvertent Escalation

Barry R. Posen
Inadvertent Escalation Book PDF

Author : Barry R. Posen
Publisher : Cornell University Press
Page : 295 pages
File Size : 49,8 Mb
Release : 2014-01-13
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 9780801468377

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Inadvertent Escalation by Barry R. Posen Pdf

In this sobering book, Barry R. Posen demonstrates how the interplay between conventional military operations and nuclear forces could, in conflicts among states armed with both conventional and nuclear weaponry, inadvertently produce pressures for nuclear escalation. Knowledge of these hidden pressures, he believes, may help some future decision maker avoid catastrophe.Building a formidable argument that moves with cumulative force, he details the way in which escalation could occur not by mindless accident, or by deliberate preference for nuclear escalation, but rather as a natural accompaniment of land, naval, or air warfare at the conventional level. Posen bases his analysis on an empirical study of the east-west military competition in Europe during the 1980s, using a conceptual framework drawn from international relations theory, organization theory, and strategic theory.The lessons of his book, however, go well beyond the east-west competition. Since his observations are relevant to all military competitions between states armed with both conventional and nuclear weaponry, his book speaks to some of the problems that attend the proliferation of nuclear weapons in longstanding regional conflicts. Optimism that small and medium nuclear powers can easily achieve "stable" nuclear balances is, he believes, unwarranted.

Too Close for Comfort

Patricia Lewis,Benoit Pelopidas,Heather Williams
Too Close for Comfort Book PDF

Author : Patricia Lewis,Benoit Pelopidas,Heather Williams
Publisher : Chatham House Publishers
Page : 0 pages
File Size : 49,6 Mb
Release : 2014
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 1784130141

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Too Close for Comfort by Patricia Lewis,Benoit Pelopidas,Heather Williams Pdf

Cases of near nuclear use due to misunderstanding demonstrate the importance of the human judgment factor in nuclear decisionmaking. This report applies a risk lens, based on factoring probability and consequence, to a set of cases of near use and instances of sloppy practices from 1962 to 2013.

Miscalculation: Risks of Inadvertent Nuclear War

Saghir Iqbal
Miscalculation Risks of Inadvertent Nuclear War Book PDF

Author : Saghir Iqbal
Publisher : Saghir Iqbal
Page : 154 pages
File Size : 48,5 Mb
Release : 2018-04-16
Category : Electronic
ISBN : 9781717040404

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Miscalculation: Risks of Inadvertent Nuclear War by Saghir Iqbal Pdf

An impending nuclear holocaust is likely to happen, if the world community does not take action. A conflict that has been simmering for many years is beginning to spiral out of control. Two nuclear powers have an unresolved dispute that has increased tensions in the region. Both countries are purchasing and developing sophisticated state-of-the-art weapons that could unleash great terror and destruction on the populations of both countries – with also serious global ramifications. The world’s most dangerous flashpoint, has the highest chance of a nuclear war occurring – it is deemed by many to be more serious that the Cuban Missile Crisis and North Korea’s nuclear sabre rattling. The dispute needs to be amicably resolved between both nations and confidence building measures need to be implemented.

Inside Nuclear South Asia

Scott Douglas Sagan
Inside Nuclear South Asia Book PDF

Author : Scott Douglas Sagan
Publisher : Stanford University Press
Page : 296 pages
File Size : 43,9 Mb
Release : 2009-08-17
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 9780804762380

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Inside Nuclear South Asia by Scott Douglas Sagan Pdf

This book presents an analytical account of the causes and dangerous consequences of nuclear proliferation in South Asia.

War and Escalation in South Asia

John E. Peters
War and Escalation in South Asia Book PDF

Author : John E. Peters
Publisher : Rand Corporation
Page : 121 pages
File Size : 44,5 Mb
Release : 2006
Category : History
ISBN : 9780833038128

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War and Escalation in South Asia by John E. Peters Pdf

The advent of two nuclear powers in South Asia, discoveries of nuclear trafficking, and insurgencies and terrorism that threaten important U.S. interests and objectives directly have transformed the region from a strategic backwater into a primary theater of concern for the United States. The United States, to a great extent free of the restrictions of earlier sanction regimes and attentive to the region's central role in the global war on terrorism (GWOT), has engaged the states of South Asia aggressively with a wide variety of policy initiatives. Despite the diversity of policy instruments, few are very powerful; indeed, only the U.S. military seems to offer many options for Washington to intensify further its security cooperation and influence in the region. This monograph highlights key factors in the region that imperil U.S. interests, and suggests how and where the U.S. military might play an expanded, influential role. The report notes that the current U.S. military force posture, disposition, and lines of command may not be optimal, given South Asia's new status in the U.S. strategic calculus, and suggests seven key steps the military might take to improve its ability to advance and defend U.S. interests, not only in South Asia, but beyond it, including the Middle East and Asia at large. Beyond the specifics, however, the broader message arising from this analysis is straightforward: the region's salience for U.S. policy interests has increased dramatically. It is therefore prudent to intensify Washington's involvement in the region and to devote the resources necessary to become more influential with the governments within the region. Given the area's potential for violence, it is also prudent to shape a part of the U.S. military to meet the potential crises emanating from South Asia, just as the United States once shaped its military presence in Western Europe for the contingencies of the Cold War.

South Asia's Nuclear Security

Bhumitra Chakma
South Asia s Nuclear Security Book PDF

Author : Bhumitra Chakma
Publisher : Routledge
Page : 250 pages
File Size : 53,7 Mb
Release : 2014-12-17
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 9781317586883

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South Asia's Nuclear Security by Bhumitra Chakma Pdf

South Asia is often viewed as a potential nuclear flashpoint and a probable source of nuclear terrorism. But, how valid are such perceptions? This book seeks to address this question and assesses the region’s nuclear security from two principal standpoints. First, it evaluates the robustness of the Indo-Pakistani mutual deterrence by analysing the strength and weaknesses of the competing arguments regarding the issue. It also analyses the causes and consequences of nuclear arms race between India and Pakistan, the nature of deterrence structure in the region and the challenges of confidence building and arms control between the two countries in order to assess the robustness of South Asia’s nuclear deterrence. Second, it assesses the safety and security of the nuclear assets and nuclear infrastructure of India and Pakistan. The author holds that the debate on South Asia’s nuclear security is largely misplaced because the optimists tend to overemphasise the stabilising effects of nuclear weapons and the pessimists are too alarmists. It is argued that while the risks of nuclear weapons are significant, it is unlikely that India and Pakistan will give up their nuclear arsenals in the foreseeable future. Therefore, what needs to happen is that while nuclear elimination should be the long-term goal, in the interim years the two countries need to pursue minimum deterrence policies to reduce the likelihood of deterrence failure and the possibility of obtaining fissile materials by non-state actors.

Nuclear South Asia

Rajesh Rajagopalan,Atul Mishra
Nuclear South Asia Book PDF

Author : Rajesh Rajagopalan,Atul Mishra
Publisher : Routledge
Page : 473 pages
File Size : 53,6 Mb
Release : 2015-08-12
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 9781317324751

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Nuclear South Asia by Rajesh Rajagopalan,Atul Mishra Pdf

This dictionary provides a comprehensive and ready guide to the key concepts, issues, persons, and technologies related to the nuclear programmes of India and Pakistan and other South Asian states. This will serve as a useful reference especially as the nuclear issue continues to be an important domestic and international policy concern.

Inadvertent Nuclear War

Hå. Wiberg,I.D. Petersen,P. Smoker
Inadvertent Nuclear War Book PDF

Author : Hå. Wiberg,I.D. Petersen,P. Smoker
Publisher : Elsevier
Page : 339 pages
File Size : 45,6 Mb
Release : 2013-10-22
Category : History
ISBN : 9781483287638

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Inadvertent Nuclear War by Hå. Wiberg,I.D. Petersen,P. Smoker Pdf

Since the dramatic end of the Pacific War in 1945 the threat of nuclear war has exercised the minds of many. Initial fears concerned the risk that a political crisis between the Superpowers would escalate through miltary confrontation into a 'calculated' nuclear war. Another scenario pictured a new Hitler commanding a nuclear-capable state prepared to use such weapons 'irrationally', possibly sparking a 'catalytic' nuclear war between the major Powers. More recently attention has shifted towards the risk of the 'accidental' release of nuclear weapons. While the risk of intentional conflict between the major Powers has lessened, the arsenals have only been marginally reduced, leaving the possibility of accidental release as perhaps the most threatening case. Inadvertent Nuclear War presents the risk in terms of the reliability and instability of the human and technical systems governing release, with contributions ranging from the engineering of computer software to the psychology of the chain of command. As Dr Wiberg states in his introduction, "No known technical construction, human being or social organization is absolutely failsafe."

On the Brink

Van Jackson
On the Brink Book PDF

Author : Van Jackson
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
Page : 251 pages
File Size : 43,5 Mb
Release : 2019
Category : History
ISBN : 9781108473484

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On the Brink by Van Jackson Pdf

Former Pentagon insider Van Jackson explores how Trump and Kim reached - and avoided - the precipice of nuclear war.

Uneasy Neighbors

Kanishkan Sathasivam
Uneasy Neighbors Book PDF

Author : Kanishkan Sathasivam
Publisher : Routledge
Page : 208 pages
File Size : 51,5 Mb
Release : 2017-10-24
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 9781351876827

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Uneasy Neighbors by Kanishkan Sathasivam Pdf

This volume represents a comprehensive and detailed case study of the long-running conflict between India and Pakistan - primarily over the contested territory of Kashmir, and the involvement of the United States within that conflict. The book details the history of 'Partition', the critical event in the modern history of the subcontinent and the fundamental catalyst for the enduring rivalry between India and Pakistan. It provides a summary description and analysis of the characteristics - demographic, social-cultural, political, economic and military - of the three primary actors that are party to the conflict: the sovereign states of India and Pakistan and the territory of Kashmir. It explains the history of US policy toward India and Pakistan as individual countries as well as US policy toward the conflict between them, particularly in light of the Indian and Pakistani nuclear tests of 1998 and events since September 11, 2001. In addition, the volume also describes and analyzes the involvement of three other major extra-regional actors.

Nuclear Deterrence in South Asia

Rizwana Abbasi,Zafar Khan
Nuclear Deterrence in South Asia Book PDF

Author : Rizwana Abbasi,Zafar Khan
Publisher : Routledge
Page : 240 pages
File Size : 50,5 Mb
Release : 2019-06-25
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 9781000024470

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Nuclear Deterrence in South Asia by Rizwana Abbasi,Zafar Khan Pdf

This book explores evolving patterns of nuclear deterrence, the impact of new technologies, and changing deterrent force postures in the South Asian region to assess future challenges for sustainable peace and stability. Under the core principles of the security dilemma, this book analyzes the prevailing security environment in South Asia and offers unilateral, bilateral, and multilateral frameworks to stabilize peace and ensure deterrence stability in the South Asian region. Moreover, contending patterns of deterrence dynamics in the South Asian region are further elaborated as becoming inextricably interlinked with the broader security dynamics of the Asia-Pacific region and the interactions with the United States and China’s Belt and Road Initiative. As India and Pakistan are increasingly becoming part of the competing strategies exercised by the United States and China, the authors analyze how strategic uncertainty and fear faced by these rival states cause the introduction of new technologies which could gradually drift these competing states into more serious crises and military conflicts. Presenting innovative solutions to emerging South Asian challenges and offering new security mechanisms for sustainable peace and stability, this book will be of interest to academics and policymakers working on Asian Security studies, Nuclear Strategy, and International Relations.