Assessing The Risk Of Inadvertent Nuclear War Between India And Pakistan
Assessing The Risk Of Inadvertent Nuclear War Between India And Pakistan Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle version is available to download in english. Read online anytime anywhere directly from your device. Click on the download button below to get a free pdf file of Assessing The Risk Of Inadvertent Nuclear War Between India And Pakistan book. This book definitely worth reading, it is an incredibly well-written.
Assessing the Risk of Inadvertent Nuclear War Between India and Pakistan by Stephen A. Smith Pdf
Conventional warfare between India and Pakistan could inadvertently escalate to nuclear warfare. Asymmetries in military doctrine and capability undermine deterrence stability and could lead to the use of nuclear weapons if the two nations become engaged in a large-scale conventional conflict. Following the 1998 nuclear weapons test, the 1999 Kargil Conflict played out tinder the nuclear umbrella, but remained very limited. However, there is a growing gap in conventional military capabilities, and growing pressure in India to retaliate against Pakistan for its alleged support of terrorism and insurgency. India has invested heavily in force modernization, potentially changing the scope of conventional military operations and leading to Pakistan's inadvertent use of nuclear weapons. This thesis examines the possibility of inadvertent nuclear escalation between India and Pakistan. It analyzes the deterrence system that is evolving in South Asia, and describes the conditions tinder which the system could fail. Large-scale conventional war could threaten the survival of strategic forces, or threaten vital strategic command and control functions. Finally, Pakistan could adopt a launch-on-warning posture to guard against an Indian pre-emptive attack. This thesis concludes by recommending steps that the United States could take to ensure peace and decrease de-stabilizing factors in the region.
The Threat of Inadvertent Nuclear War in South Asia by Matthew G. Gurgel Pdf
This thesis assesses the potential for a specific type of accidental nuclear conflict between India and Pakistan. Known as inadvertent war, such a conflict would be the result of a mistaken attempt at preemption, the launching of a nuclear attack by one nation in the mistaken belief that the other was doing likewise or was about to do so. While nuclear weapons can ordinarily be expected to exert a sobering influence on decision-makers, an escalating spiral of military activity during a crisis may generate different situational imperatives. Inadvertent war becomes possible when decision- makers perceive that conflict is inevitable and that there is a significant advantage in striking first. Evidence suggests that there is good reason for concern about the threat of inadvertent nuclear war in South Asia. The nuclear force structures adopted by India and Pakistan can be expected to exert a particularly strong influence on the potential for both of the necessary conditions for inadvertent war. The current arsenals of these countries, small and heavily dependant upon aircraft for weapons delivery, may invite preemption in the event that nuclear war appears imminent. If India and Pakistan increase their nuclear delivery capabilities by deploying nuclear-armed ballistic missiles, the potential for inadvertent war will be even greater. In the context of a military confrontation in South Asia, ballistic missiles are likely to contribute both to perceptions of first-strike advantage and to reinforcing military alerts that can lead to the belief that nuclear war is inevitable.
This volume represents a comprehensive and detailed case study of the long-running conflict between India and Pakistan - primarily over the contested territory of Kashmir, and the involvement of the United States within that conflict. The book details the history of 'Partition', the critical event in the modern history of the subcontinent and the fundamental catalyst for the enduring rivalry between India and Pakistan. It provides a summary description and analysis of the characteristics - demographic, social-cultural, political, economic and military - of the three primary actors that are party to the conflict: the sovereign states of India and Pakistan and the territory of Kashmir. It explains the history of US policy toward India and Pakistan as individual countries as well as US policy toward the conflict between them, particularly in light of the Indian and Pakistani nuclear tests of 1998 and events since September 11, 2001. In addition, the volume also describes and analyzes the involvement of three other major extra-regional actors.
The Routledge Handbook of South Asia by Adluri Subramanyam Raju,R. Srinivasan Pdf
This handbook presents an authoritative overview of South Asia through the lens of geopolitics, political dynamics, economics, human security, and sustainable development. It brings together key insights from various disciplines to provide an in-depth understanding of the genesis, course, and future potential of South Asia as a region. The handbook: Explores the post-colonial political landscape of India, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, the Maldives, Nepal, Bhutan and Afghanistan and analyses the challenges to political stability and governance in South Asia Studies the opportunities and challenges produced by globalization and recommends solutions towards greater connectivity and trade in South Asia Delves into the issues of climate change, water and land resource dependency, and energy security and singles out policy challenges as well as positive actions to promote sustainable development and implement the blue economy Discusses the political dynamics of regional cooperation between countries and the role of China in South Asian regional affairs An invaluable addition to the study of South Asia, this volume will be an indispensable resource for scholars, teachers and researchers of political science, international relations, South Asia studies, South Asian politics, history, defence and strategic studies, political economy, developmental studies, public policy and sustainability studies.
The India–Pakistan border in Jammu & Kashmir has witnessed repeated ceasefire violations (CFVs) over the past decade. As relations between India and Pakistan have deteriorated, CFVs have increased exponentially. It is imperative to gain a deeper understanding of these violations owing to their potential to not only cause a crisis but also escalate an ongoing one. Line on Fire, part of the Oxford International Relations in South Asia series, postulates that the incorrect diagnosis of the reasons behind CFVs has led to wrong policies being adopted by both India and Pakistan to deal with the recurrent violations. Using fresh empirical data and first-hand accounts, the volume attempts to understand the reason why CFVs continue to take place between India and Pakistan despite consistent efforts to reduce the tension between the two nations. In doing so, it recontextualizes and enriches the prevailing arguments in contemporary literature on escalating dynamics and unenduring ceasefire agreements between the two South Asian nuclear rivals.
Miscalculation: Risks of Inadvertent Nuclear War by Saghir Iqbal Pdf
An impending nuclear holocaust is likely to happen, if the world community does not take action. A conflict that has been simmering for many years is beginning to spiral out of control. Two nuclear powers have an unresolved dispute that has increased tensions in the region. Both countries are purchasing and developing sophisticated state-of-the-art weapons that could unleash great terror and destruction on the populations of both countries – with also serious global ramifications. The world’s most dangerous flashpoint, has the highest chance of a nuclear war occurring – it is deemed by many to be more serious that the Cuban Missile Crisis and North Korea’s nuclear sabre rattling. The dispute needs to be amicably resolved between both nations and confidence building measures need to be implemented.
The Global Community Yearbook of International Law and Jurisprudence 2020 by Giuliana Ziccardi Capaldo Pdf
The 2020 edition marks the 20th Anniversary of The Global Community Yearbook of International Law and Jurisprudence. The Yearbook has established itself as an authoritative source of reference on global legal issues and international jurisprudence. It includes analysis of the most significant global trends in a way that allows readers to monitor the development of the global legal order from several perspectives. The Yearbook publishes annually in a volume of carefully chosen primary source material and corresponding expert commentary. The General Editor, Professor Giuliana Ziccardi Capaldo, employs her vast expertise in international law to select excerpts from important court opinions and to choose experts from around the world to contribute essay-guides, which illuminate those cases. Although the main focus is recent case law from the major international tribunals and regional courts, the first four parts of each year's edition features expert articles by renowned scholars who address broader themes in current and future developments in international law and global policy, themes that appear throughout the case law of the many courts covered by the series as a whole. The Global Community Yearbook has thus become not just an indispensable window to recent jurisprudence: the series now also serves to prepare researchers for the issues facing emerging global law. This anniversary edition updates readers on the important work of long-standing international tribunals and introduces readers to more novel topics in international law. The journal's founding editor, Professor Emeritus Giuliana Ziccardi Capaldo, in her Editorial gives a presentation of the Yearbook's intellectual trajectory, as developed from its original roots, showing intriguing prospects for a publication that aims at the very forefront of events in law, politics, ethics, and jurisprudence in a global community. The Yearbook continues to provide expert coverage of the Court of Justice of the European Union and diverse tribunals from the International Court of Justice (ICJ), human rights courts (ECtHR, IACtHR, ACtHPR), criminal tribunals such as the International Criminal Court (ICC) and the International Residual Mechanism for Criminal Tribunals (MICT), to economically based tribunals such as ICSID and the WTO dispute settlement system. This edition contains original research articles on the development and analysis of the concept of global law and the views of the leading global law theorists on the subject of globalization. This 20th anniversary edition also includes a special section which provides an interdisciplinary overview of China's Belt and Road Initiative; and an examination of the global public health order in a post-COVID-19 world. The Yearbook provides students, scholars, and practitioners alike a valuable combination of expert discussion and direct quotes from the court opinions to which that discussion relates, as well as an annual overview of the process of cross-fertilization between international courts and tribunals.
In this sobering book, Barry R. Posen demonstrates how the interplay between conventional military operations and nuclear forces could, in conflicts among states armed with both conventional and nuclear weaponry, inadvertently produce pressures for nuclear escalation. Knowledge of these hidden pressures, he believes, may help some future decision maker avoid catastrophe.Building a formidable argument that moves with cumulative force, he details the way in which escalation could occur not by mindless accident, or by deliberate preference for nuclear escalation, but rather as a natural accompaniment of land, naval, or air warfare at the conventional level. Posen bases his analysis on an empirical study of the east-west military competition in Europe during the 1980s, using a conceptual framework drawn from international relations theory, organization theory, and strategic theory.The lessons of his book, however, go well beyond the east-west competition. Since his observations are relevant to all military competitions between states armed with both conventional and nuclear weaponry, his book speaks to some of the problems that attend the proliferation of nuclear weapons in longstanding regional conflicts. Optimism that small and medium nuclear powers can easily achieve "stable" nuclear balances is, he believes, unwarranted.
Too Close for Comfort by Patricia Lewis,Benoit Pelopidas,Heather Williams Pdf
Cases of near nuclear use due to misunderstanding demonstrate the importance of the human judgment factor in nuclear decisionmaking. This report applies a risk lens, based on factoring probability and consequence, to a set of cases of near use and instances of sloppy practices from 1962 to 2013.
The Logic of Accidental Nuclear War by Bruce G. Blair Pdf
The end of the cold war and the disintegration of the Soviet Union has not eliminated the threat posed to international security by nuclear weapons. The Soviet breakup actually created a new set of dangers: the accidental or unauthorized use of nuclear weapons and the illicit transfer of nuclear warheads, technology, or expertise to the Third World. The Logic of Accidental Nuclear War analyzes the danger of nuclear inadvertence lurking in the command and control systems of the nuclear superpowers. Foreign policy expert Bruce G. Blair identifies the cold war roots of the contemporary risks and outlines a comprehensive policy agenda to strengthen control over nuclear forces. Based on discussions with numerous U.S. and Russian experts, including Russian launch officers who served in the strategic rocket forces and ballistic missile submarines, this book reveals a wealth of new facts about the hidden history of U.S. and Soviet nuclear crisis alerts and exercises. It is a richly detailed, rigorous, and authoritative account of nuclear operations and overturns much conventional wisdom on the subject.
Nuclear Risk Reduction Measures in South Asia by Upendra Choudhury Pdf
The Prospect Of A Nuclear War In South Asia Has Drawn Global Attention And Concern. This Book Studies Nuclear Risks In The Indo-Pakistani And Sino-Indian Contexts And Suggests A Wide Range Of Measures By Which India, Pakistan And China Could Reduce Nuclear Dangers In South Asia. The Only Full-Length Study And A Timely Epilogue Of Latest Nuclear Dialogues Between India And Pakistan. Nuclear Risk Reduction Measures In South Asia Will Be A Standard Reference Not Only For Political Scientists And Strategic Analysts, But Also For Policy Makers, Diplomats, Journalists, Defence Personnel And The Informed General Reader.
South Asia's Nuclear Security by Bhumitra Chakma Pdf
South Asia is often viewed as a potential nuclear flashpoint and a probable source of nuclear terrorism. But, how valid are such perceptions? This book seeks to address this question and assesses the region’s nuclear security from two principal standpoints. First, it evaluates the robustness of the Indo-Pakistani mutual deterrence by analysing the strength and weaknesses of the competing arguments regarding the issue. It also analyses the causes and consequences of nuclear arms race between India and Pakistan, the nature of deterrence structure in the region and the challenges of confidence building and arms control between the two countries in order to assess the robustness of South Asia’s nuclear deterrence. Second, it assesses the safety and security of the nuclear assets and nuclear infrastructure of India and Pakistan. The author holds that the debate on South Asia’s nuclear security is largely misplaced because the optimists tend to overemphasise the stabilising effects of nuclear weapons and the pessimists are too alarmists. It is argued that while the risks of nuclear weapons are significant, it is unlikely that India and Pakistan will give up their nuclear arsenals in the foreseeable future. Therefore, what needs to happen is that while nuclear elimination should be the long-term goal, in the interim years the two countries need to pursue minimum deterrence policies to reduce the likelihood of deterrence failure and the possibility of obtaining fissile materials by non-state actors.
`A unique and indispensible work that serves both as a basic introduction to the disarmament scene and a reference book for experts′ - Disarmament Times `This compendium of the history and achievements of arms control and disarmament efforts is unique in its kind and is likely to remain so. This for three reasons: first, because of its unparalleled comprehensiveness; second, because of the outstanding quality of its presentation, and, third, because of its author, Jozef Goldblat, one of the world′s leading experts in the field. This triad makes the updated Second Edition of Arms Control: The New Guide to Negotiations and Agreements a must for all concerned with international security in general and arms control in particular′ - Curt Gasteyger, Graduate Institute of International Studies, Geneva `The thesaurus of arms regulation and disarmament...a precious tool for negotiators and treaty makers′ - Ambassador V Petrovsky, Former Secretary-General of the Conference on Disarmament `Being the most comprehensive and authoritative compilation and analysis of arms control agreements available, this is an indispensable reference volume for students and practitioners of arms control and international security. The author has spent a lifetime in the study and practice of international security affairs: where international law and arms control agreements are concerned, there is no one better qualified than him′ - Sverre Lodgaard, Norwegian Institute of International Affairs, Oslo The revised and updated edition of Arms Control: The New Guide to Negotiations and Agreements contains the most authoritative and comprehensive survey ever published of the documents related to arms control. All major agreements reached since the second half of the nineteenth century through to mid-2002 are critically analysed and assessed. The assessment is made in the light of the international security environment, the developments in the field of weapon technology, the threat of nuclear, chemical and biological weapons proliferation, and the efforts to strengthen the humanitarian law of armed conflict. The accompanying CD-ROM reproduces full text and carefully selected excerpts of treaties, conventions, common understandings, statutes, charters, binding decisions of international bodies, final acts of international conferences, exchanges of letters and diplomatic notes. Multilateral agreements are followed by a list of parties. Enriched with new maps, tables and figures, as well as an expanded glossary and bibliography, the book will remain the definitive resource for students of international relations, journalists, diplomats and military strategists. Jozef Goldblat, the author, is Vice-President of the Geneva International Peace Research Institute (GIPRI), Resident Senior Fellow of the UN Institute for Disarmament Research (UNIDIR) and Associate Editor of Security Dialogue, published by SAGE for the International Peace Research Institute, Oslo (PRIO). He has studied the problems of arms control since the 1950s and has been involved in arms control negotiations. From 1969 to 1989 he directed the arms control and disarmament programme of studies at the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI). He has lectured at various universities and has written reports, articles and books on the arms race and disarmament. His latest publications include The Nuclear Non-Proliferation Regime: Assessment and Prospects, The Hague Academy of International Law, 1997, and Nuclear Disarmament: Obstacles to Banishing the Bomb, I. B. Tauris, 2000.
