The Truth Of Uncertainty

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Risk and Uncertainty in a Post-Truth Society

Sander van der Linden,Ragnar E. Löfstedt
Risk and Uncertainty in a Post Truth Society Book PDF

Author : Sander van der Linden,Ragnar E. Löfstedt
Publisher : Routledge
Page : 80 pages
File Size : 46,5 Mb
Release : 2019-06-10
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781000022926

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Risk and Uncertainty in a Post-Truth Society by Sander van der Linden,Ragnar E. Löfstedt Pdf

This edited volume looks at whether it is possible to be more transparent about uncertainty in scientific evidence without undermining public understanding and trust. With contributions from leading experts in the field, this book explores the communication of risk and decision-making in an increasingly post-truth world. Drawing on case studies from climate change to genetic testing, the authors argue for better quality evidence synthesis to cut through the noise and highlight the need for more structured public dialogue. For uncertainty in scientific evidence to be communicated effectively, they conclude that trustworthiness is vital: the data and methods underlying statistics must be transparent, valid, and sound, and the numbers need to demonstrate practical utility and add social value to people’s lives. Presenting a conceptual framework to help navigate the reader through the key social and scientific challenges of a post-truth era, this book will be of great relevance to students, scholars, and policy makers with an interest in risk analysis and communication.

The Truth of Uncertainty

Edward L. Galligan
The Truth of Uncertainty Book PDF

Author : Edward L. Galligan
Publisher : University of Missouri Press
Page : 220 pages
File Size : 52,6 Mb
Release : 1998
Category : Literary Collections
ISBN : 0826211925

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The Truth of Uncertainty by Edward L. Galligan Pdf

Galligan (Professor Emeritus, English, Western Michigan U.-Kalamazoo) argues that contemporary American critics should embrace literary truths with all of their uncertainties rather than cling to make- believe certainties of ideologies. He celebrates values commonly associated with modern, not postmodern, criticism, applying them to contemporary works in a series of fresh and unusual inquiries. He finds implications for criticism in work from the physical sciences and in the works of largely ignored novelists. Annotation copyrighted by Book News, Inc., Portland, OR

Masters of Uncertainty

Phaedra Daipha
Masters of Uncertainty Book PDF

Author : Phaedra Daipha
Publisher : University of Chicago Press
Page : 280 pages
File Size : 55,5 Mb
Release : 2015-11-17
Category : Science
ISBN : 9780226298689

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Masters of Uncertainty by Phaedra Daipha Pdf

"In Masters of Uncertainty, Phaedra Daipha offers a new framework for understanding decision-making practice after spending years immersed in a northeastern office of the National Weather Service. Arguing that forecasters have made a virtue of the unpredictability of the weather, Daipha shows how they enlist an onmivorous appetite for information and improvisational collage techniques to create a locally meaningful forecast on their computer screens. This richly detailed and lucidly written book advances a theory of decision making that foregrounds the pragmatic and situated nature of expert cognition and casts new light on how we make decisions in the digital age"--Page {4] of cover.

The Truth War

John F. MacArthur
The Truth War Book PDF

Author : John F. MacArthur
Publisher : Thomas Nelson
Page : 256 pages
File Size : 48,7 Mb
Release : 2008-12-28
Category : Religion
ISBN : 9781418568375

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The Truth War by John F. MacArthur Pdf

Right now, truth is under attack, and much is at stake. Perhaps no one in America is more passionate than John MacArthur about exposing those who are mounting this attack?especially those bringing the assault right into the church. There is no middle ground?no safe zone for the uncommitted in this war. The battle for truth is raging, and this book reveals: The pitfalls of postmodern thinking Why the Emerging Church Movement is inherently flawed Past skirmishes in the Truth War and their effect on the Church The importance of truth and certainty in a postmodern society How to identify and address the errors and false teachings smuggled into churches "[The postmodern age] is the age of no truth, an age that has reached a point of deadly fatigue when it comes to facing the truth?a generation that no longer believes truth can be known. Dr. John MacArthur knows better, and he is armed with the courage to confront this age with a bold defense of truth. . . . His argument is compelling, his defense of truth is brilliant, and his concern for the church is evident on every page. The evangelical church desperately needs this book, and it arrives just in time." ?R. Albert Mohler Jr., President, The Southern Baptist Theological Seminary

Uncertainty Theory

Baoding Liu
Uncertainty Theory Book PDF

Author : Baoding Liu
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
Page : 350 pages
File Size : 55,6 Mb
Release : 2011-11-07
Category : Computers
ISBN : 9783642139581

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Uncertainty Theory by Baoding Liu Pdf

Uncertainty theory is a branch of mathematics based on normality, monotonicity, self-duality, countable subadditivity, and product measure axioms. Uncertainty is any concept that satisfies the axioms of uncertainty theory. Thus uncertainty is neither randomness nor fuzziness. It is also known from some surveys that a lot of phenomena do behave like uncertainty. How do we model uncertainty? How do we use uncertainty theory? In order to answer these questions, this book provides a self-contained, comprehensive and up-to-date presentation of uncertainty theory, including uncertain programming, uncertain risk analysis, uncertain reliability analysis, uncertain process, uncertain calculus, uncertain differential equation, uncertain logic, uncertain entailment, and uncertain inference. Mathematicians, researchers, engineers, designers, and students in the field of mathematics, information science, operations research, system science, industrial engineering, computer science, artificial intelligence, finance, control, and management science will find this work a stimulating and useful reference.

A Theory of Uncertainty

Andreas Klinke
A Theory of Uncertainty Book PDF

Author : Andreas Klinke
Publisher : Taylor & Francis
Page : 283 pages
File Size : 55,6 Mb
Release : 2024-08-02
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781040102732

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A Theory of Uncertainty by Andreas Klinke Pdf

Using sources from classical to modern that broach the phenomenon of uncertainty and its relation to risk, this book creates a novel approach to the recognized but theoretically often unattended issue of uncertainty. Andreas Klinke develops a new, general theory of uncertainty that provides a taxonomy of categories which are deduced from a critical inventory in philosophy, social and natural sciences, and risk research. Comprising six parts, the philosophical grounding of uncertainty sets the stage for the following philosophical and social scientific accounts and explanation of four distinctive guises of uncertainty that form a taxonomic notion and rationale: ontological, epistemological, linguistic-communicative, and teleological uncertainty. The theoretical-conceptual rumination provides a complex, differentiated view of the anatomy of uncertainty and an understanding that can be used in further theoretical and empirical research, as well as socio-political practice. The latter is delineated in the final part addressing the societal domestication of uncertainty. This book will be of great interest to scholars and students in philosophy, social and natural sciences, risk research, as well as inter- and transdisciplinary science fields.

Uncertainty Reasoning for the Semantic Web II

Fernando Bobillo,Paulo Cesar G. Costa,Claudia d'Amato,Nicola Fanizzi,Kathryn B. Laskey,Kenneth J. Laskey,Thomas Lukasiewicz,Matthias Nickles,Michael Pool
Uncertainty Reasoning for the Semantic Web II Book PDF

Author : Fernando Bobillo,Paulo Cesar G. Costa,Claudia d'Amato,Nicola Fanizzi,Kathryn B. Laskey,Kenneth J. Laskey,Thomas Lukasiewicz,Matthias Nickles,Michael Pool
Publisher : Springer
Page : 345 pages
File Size : 41,5 Mb
Release : 2013-01-09
Category : Computers
ISBN : 9783642359750

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Uncertainty Reasoning for the Semantic Web II by Fernando Bobillo,Paulo Cesar G. Costa,Claudia d'Amato,Nicola Fanizzi,Kathryn B. Laskey,Kenneth J. Laskey,Thomas Lukasiewicz,Matthias Nickles,Michael Pool Pdf

This book contains revised and significantly extended versions of selected papers from three workshops on Uncertainty Reasoning for the Semantic Web (URSW), held at the International Semantic Web Conferences (ISWC) in 2008, 2009, and 2010 or presented at the first international Workshop on Uncertainty in Description Logics (UniDL), held at the Federated Logic Conference (FLoC) in 2010. The 17 papers presented were carefully reviewed and selected from numerous submissions. The papers are organized in topical sections on probabilistic and Dempster-Shafer models, fuzzy and possibilistic models, inductive reasoning and machine learning, and hybrid approaches.

The Certainty of Uncertainty

Mark Schaefer
The Certainty of Uncertainty Book PDF

Author : Mark Schaefer
Publisher : Wipf and Stock Publishers
Page : 277 pages
File Size : 43,8 Mb
Release : 2018-08-23
Category : Religion
ISBN : 9781532653438

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The Certainty of Uncertainty by Mark Schaefer Pdf

The world is full of people who are very certain—in politics, in religion, in all manner of things. In addition, political, religious, and social organizations are marketing certainty as a cure all to all life’s problems. But is such certainty possible? Or even good? The Certainty of Uncertainty explores the question of certainty by looking at the reasons human beings crave certainty and the religious responses we frequently fashion to help meet that need. The book takes an in-depth view of religion, language, our senses, our science, and our world to explore the inescapable uncertainties they reveal. We find that the certainty we crave does not exist. As we reflect on the unavoidable uncertainties in our world, we come to understand that letting go of certainty is not only necessary, it’s beneficial. For, in embracing doubt and uncertainty, we find a more meaningful and courageous religious faith, a deeper encounter with mystery, and a way to build strong relationships across religious and philosophical lines. In The Certainty of Uncertainty, we see that embracing our belief systems with humility and uncertainty can be transformative for ourselves and for our world.

Integrated Uncertainty in Knowledge Modelling and Decision Making

Hirosato Seki,Canh Hao Nguyen,Van-Nam Huynh,Masahiro Inuiguchi
Integrated Uncertainty in Knowledge Modelling and Decision Making Book PDF

Author : Hirosato Seki,Canh Hao Nguyen,Van-Nam Huynh,Masahiro Inuiguchi
Publisher : Springer
Page : 455 pages
File Size : 43,5 Mb
Release : 2019-03-18
Category : Computers
ISBN : 9783030148157

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Integrated Uncertainty in Knowledge Modelling and Decision Making by Hirosato Seki,Canh Hao Nguyen,Van-Nam Huynh,Masahiro Inuiguchi Pdf

This book constitutes the refereed proceedings of the 7th International Symposium on Integrated Uncertainty in Knowledge Modelling and Decision Making, IUKM 2019, held in Nara, Japan, in March 2019. The 37 revised full papers presented were carefully reviewed and selected from 93 submissions. The papers deal with all aspects of uncertainty modelling and management and are organized in topical sections on uncertainty management and decision support; econometrics; machine learning; machine learning applications; and statistical methods.

Logic and Uncertainty in the Human Mind

Shira Elqayam,Igor Douven,Jonathan St B. T. Evans,Nicole Cruz
Logic and Uncertainty in the Human Mind Book PDF

Author : Shira Elqayam,Igor Douven,Jonathan St B. T. Evans,Nicole Cruz
Publisher : Routledge
Page : 264 pages
File Size : 44,9 Mb
Release : 2020-06-10
Category : Psychology
ISBN : 9781351620413

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Logic and Uncertainty in the Human Mind by Shira Elqayam,Igor Douven,Jonathan St B. T. Evans,Nicole Cruz Pdf

David E. Over is a leading cognitive scientist and, with his firm grounding in philosophical logic, he also exerts a powerful influence on the psychology of reasoning. He is responsible for not only a large body of empirical work and accompanying theory, but for advancing a major shift in thinking about reasoning, commonly known as the ‘new paradigm’ in the psychology of human reasoning. Over’s signature mix of philosophical logic and experimental psychology has inspired generations of researchers, psychologists, and philosophers alike over more than a quarter of a century. The chapters in this volume, written by a leading group of contributors including a number who helped shape the psychology of reasoning as we know it today, each take their starting point from the key themes of Over’s ground-breaking work. The essays in this collection explore a wide range of central topics—such as rationality, bias, dual processes, and dual systems—as well as contemporary psychological and philosophical theories of conditionals. It concludes with an engaging new chapter, authored by David E. Over himself, which details and analyses the new paradigm psychology of reasoning. This book is therefore important reading for scholars, researchers, and advanced students in psychology, philosophy, and the cognitive sciences, including those who are not familiar with Over’s thought already.

The Art of Uncertainty

Dennis Merritt Jones
The Art of Uncertainty Book PDF

Author : Dennis Merritt Jones
Publisher : Penguin
Page : 306 pages
File Size : 46,6 Mb
Release : 2011-06-09
Category : Body, Mind & Spirit
ISBN : 9781101516980

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The Art of Uncertainty by Dennis Merritt Jones Pdf

What if we could learn to accept I don't know and embrace the possibility that the future is full of mystery, excitement, and unlimited opportunity? The Art of Uncertainty is an invitation to the reader to consider its essential message: learning to love the unknown by staying present in the moment. If the difficulties of recent years have taught us anything-particularly those who "did everything right" and still saw it all fall apart-it's that none of us has as much control over our lives as we believe. The only thing we can control is our next thought. What if we could learn how to be at peace with uncertainty and embrace the possibility that the future is full of mystery, excitement, and unlimited opportunity? What if we discovered that a new paradigm can be more fulfilling, more rewarding, and more peaceful than what we have known? Living in the I don't know and loving it is an art form we can all master, and The Art of Uncertainty is the perfect guidebook.

Uncertainty

Kostas Kampourakis,Kevin McCain
Uncertainty Book PDF

Author : Kostas Kampourakis,Kevin McCain
Publisher : Oxford University Press, USA
Page : 273 pages
File Size : 55,5 Mb
Release : 2020
Category : Philosophy
ISBN : 9780190871666

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Uncertainty by Kostas Kampourakis,Kevin McCain Pdf

Anti-evolutionists, climate denialists, and anti-vaxxers, among others, question some of the best-established scientific findings by referring to the uncertainties in these areas of research. Uncertainty: How It Makes Science Advance shows that uncertainty is an inherent feature of science that makes it advance by motivating further research.

Imprecision and Uncertainty in Information Representation and Processing

Plamen Angelov,Sotir Sotirov
Imprecision and Uncertainty in Information Representation and Processing Book PDF

Author : Plamen Angelov,Sotir Sotirov
Publisher : Springer
Page : 414 pages
File Size : 43,7 Mb
Release : 2015-12-22
Category : Technology & Engineering
ISBN : 9783319263021

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Imprecision and Uncertainty in Information Representation and Processing by Plamen Angelov,Sotir Sotirov Pdf

The book offers a comprehensive and timely overview of advanced mathematical tools for both uncertainty analysis and modeling of parallel processes, with a special emphasis on intuitionistic fuzzy sets and generalized nets. The different chapters, written by active researchers in their respective areas, are structured to provide a coherent picture of this interdisciplinary yet still evolving field of science. They describe key tools and give practical insights into and research perspectives on the use of Atanassov's intuitionistic fuzzy sets and logic, and generalized nets for describing and dealing with uncertainty in different areas of science, technology and business, in a single, to date unique book. Here, readers find theoretical chapters, dealing with intuitionistic fuzzy operators, membership functions and algorithms, among other topics, as well as application-oriented chapters, reporting on the implementation of methods and relevant case studies in management science, the IT industry, medicine and/or education. With this book, the editors wish to pay homage to Professor Krassimir Todorov Atanassov for his pioneering work on both generalized nets and intuitionistic fuzzy set.

Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence

Didier J. Dubois,Michael P. Wellman,Bruce D'Ambrosio
Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence Book PDF

Author : Didier J. Dubois,Michael P. Wellman,Bruce D'Ambrosio
Publisher : Morgan Kaufmann
Page : 379 pages
File Size : 48,9 Mb
Release : 2014-05-12
Category : Computers
ISBN : 9781483282879

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Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence by Didier J. Dubois,Michael P. Wellman,Bruce D'Ambrosio Pdf

Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence: Proceedings of the Eighth Conference (1992) covers the papers presented at the Eighth Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence, held at Stanford University on July 17-19, 1992. The book focuses on the processes, methodologies, technologies, and approaches involved in artificial intelligence. The selection first offers information on Relative Evidential Support (RES), modal logics for qualitative possibility and beliefs, and optimizing causal orderings for generating DAGs from data. Discussions focus on reversal, swap, and unclique operators, modal representation of possibility, and beliefs and conditionals. The text then examines structural controllability and observability in influence diagrams, lattice-based graded logic, and dynamic network models for forecasting. The manuscript takes a look at reformulating inference problems through selective conditioning, entropy and belief networks, parallelizing probabilistic inference, and a symbolic approach to reasoning with linguistic quantifiers. The text also ponders on sidestepping the triangulation problem in Bayesian net computations; exploring localization in Bayesian networks for large expert systems; and expressing relational and temporal knowledge in visual probabilistic networks. The selection is a valuable reference for researchers interested in artificial intelligence.

Managing Project Uncertainty

David Cleden
Managing Project Uncertainty Book PDF

Author : David Cleden
Publisher : Routledge
Page : 131 pages
File Size : 50,9 Mb
Release : 2017-03-02
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781351920414

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Managing Project Uncertainty by David Cleden Pdf

Dealing effectively with uncertainty requires today's project manager to be familiar with a broad spectrum of strategies, encompassing both 'hard' and 'soft' methods. This theme of unified thinking (i.e. the need to selectively draw upon a wide range of strategies in any given situation) will differentiate the book from its contemporaries. By picking up where traditional risk management techniques begin to fail, it brings together leading-edge thinking from a variety of disciplines and shows how these techniques can be used to conquer uncertainty in projects. The ability to make good decisions when faced with uncertainty is the real challenge. It is a universal truth that a decision is only as good as the information it is based on. But good information is often hard to come by, and all projects are vulnerable to the unknown and the unknowable. Thus, uncertainty becomes the sworn enemy of the project manager. Wherever we try to analyse, quantify, plan and act, uncertainty lies in wait to surprise us with its ambiguity and unpredictability. It lurks in every stage of the project lifecycle: in the planning (how long will this really take?), the initiation (this isn't the situation I expected!), the execution (who could have foreseen that happening?), and even the completion of a project (where are the expected benefits?). But managing uncertainty is a lot more than just applying risk management techniques. It requires a deep appreciation of how uncertainty arises and, by recognising its different guises, the appropriate strategies can be formulated. If we can learn how to reduce uncertainty, we can make better management decisions and increase the chances of the project succeeding. This book addresses five key questions: ¢ Why is there uncertainty in projects? ¢ How do you spot the symptoms of uncertainty, preferably at an early stage? ¢ What can be done to avoid uncertainty? ¢ What strategies can be used to deal with project uncertainty? ¢ How can both the individual and the organisation learn to cope more effectively in the future? The reader is assumed to be a either a project management professional, or a senior manager looking for ways to improve project management strategy within their organisation. As such, a foundation in project management basics is assumed, although not essential. The book then builds on this by exposing new ideas and concepts, and shows how these can be harnessed to tackle uncertainty in its many guises.