Thinking In Bets

Author : Annie Duke
Publisher : Penguin
Page : 289 pages
File Size : 51,6 Mb
Release : 2019-05-07
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9780735216372

Get Book

Thinking in Bets by Annie Duke Pdf

A Wall Street Journal bestseller, now in paperback. Poker champion turned decision strategist Annie Duke teaches you how to get comfortable with uncertainty and make better decisions. Even the best decision doesn't yield the best outcome every time. There's always an element of luck that you can't control, and there's always information hidden from view. So the key to long-term success (and avoiding worrying yourself to death) is to think in bets: How sure am I? What are the possible ways things could turn out? What decision has the highest odds of success? Did I land in the unlucky 10% on the strategy that works 90% of the time? Or is my success attributable to dumb luck rather than great decision making? Annie Duke, a former World Series of Poker champion turned consultant, draws on examples from business, sports, politics, and (of course) poker to share tools anyone can use to embrace uncertainty and make better decisions. For most people, it's difficult to say "I'm not sure" in a world that values and, even, rewards the appearance of certainty. But professional poker players are comfortable with the fact that great decisions don't always lead to great outcomes, and bad decisions don't always lead to bad outcomes. By shifting your thinking from a need for certainty to a goal of accurately assessing what you know and what you don't, you'll be less vulnerable to reactive emotions, knee-jerk biases, and destructive habits in your decision making. You'll become more confident, calm, compassionate, and successful in the long run.

Author : Annie Duke
Publisher : Penguin
Page : 290 pages
File Size : 52,7 Mb
Release : 2020-10-13
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9780593418482

Get Book

How to Decide by Annie Duke Pdf

Through a blend of compelling exercises, illustrations, and stories, the bestselling author of Thinking in Bets will train you to combat your own biases, address your weaknesses, and help you become a better and more confident decision-maker. What do you do when you're faced with a big decision? If you're like most people, you probably make a pro and con list, spend a lot of time obsessing about decisions that didn't work out, get caught in analysis paralysis, endlessly seek other people's opinions to find just that little bit of extra information that might make you sure, and finally go with your gut. What if there was a better way to make quality decisions so you can think clearly, feel more confident, second-guess yourself less, and ultimately be more decisive and be more productive? Making good decisions doesn't have to be a series of endless guesswork. Rather, it's a teachable skill that anyone can sharpen. In How to Decide, bestselling author Annie Duke and former professional poker player lays out a series of tools anyone can use to make better decisions. You'll learn: • To identify and dismantle hidden biases. • To extract the highest quality feedback from those whose advice you seek. • To more accurately identify the influence of luck in the outcome of your decisions. • When to decide fast, when to decide slow, and when to decide in advance. • To make decisions that more effectively help you to realize your goals and live your values. Through interactive exercises and engaging thought experiments, this book helps you analyze key decisions you've made in the past and troubleshoot those you're making in the future. Whether you're picking investments, evaluating a job offer, or trying to figure out your romantic life, How to Decide is the key to happier outcomes and fewer regrets.

Author : Annie Duke
Publisher : Noura Books
Page : 361 pages
File Size : 43,7 Mb
Release : 2022-06-13
Category : Self-Help
ISBN : 9786232423725

Get Book

Quit by Annie Duke Pdf

"Dalam berbagai situasi, kita sering kali dihadapkan dengan pilihan sulit: bertahan, berubah arah, atau bahkan berhenti (quit). Nyatanya, walau banyak pertanda tak ada guna untuk tetap bertahan, berhenti identik dengan kata gagal, sehingga tak pernah jadi pilihan. Annie Duke menawarkan strategi berbasis sains yang dapat mengasah keterampilan untuk mengetahui kapan kita harus memilih berhenti dan bagaimana cara melakukannya. Saat Anda sedang menghadapi permasalahan bisnis, karier, atau bahkan hubungan pribadi, piawai dalam memilih mana hal yang harus dipertahankan atau tidak dapat membantu Anda untuk menentukan langkah terbaik berikutnya. Hidup ini singkat. Tak sepatutnya kita membuang waktu, energi, atau uang karena terus mempertahankan keputusan yang salah."

Author : Peter Sims
Publisher : Simon and Schuster
Page : 226 pages
File Size : 53,5 Mb
Release : 2011-04-19
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781439170441

Get Book

Little Bets by Peter Sims Pdf

“An enthusiastic, example-rich argument for innovating in a particular way—by deliberately experimenting and taking small exploratory steps in novel directions. Light, bright, and packed with tidy anecdotes” (The Wall Street Journal). What do Apple CEO Steve Jobs, comedian Chris Rock, prize-winning architect Frank Gehry, and the story developers at Pixar films all have in common? Bestselling author Peter Sims found that rather than start with a big idea or plan a whole project in advance, they make a methodical series of little bets, learning critical information from lots of little failures and from small but significant wins. Reporting on a fascinating range of research, from the psychology of creative blocks to the influential field of design thinking, Sims offers engaging and illuminating accounts of breakthrough innovators at work, and a whole new way of thinking about how to navigate uncertain situations and unleash our untapped creative powers.

Author : Annie Duke,John Vorhaus
Publisher : Huntington Press Inc
Page : 464 pages
File Size : 50,8 Mb
Release : 2011-07-01
Category : Games
ISBN : 9781935396321

Get Book

Decide to Play Great Poker by Annie Duke,John Vorhaus Pdf

Poker is a game of table position, flop texture, players in a hand, personalities, and so much more. This book teaches you how to identify and analyze those variables, become a great strategist, and have confidence in any poker situation. Decide to Play Great Poker is written by Annie Duke, the world's most renowned woman poker player, with John Vorhaus, himself a winning poker player and prolific author.

Author : Suzy Welch
Publisher : Simon and Schuster
Page : 205 pages
File Size : 52,6 Mb
Release : 2009-04-20
Category : Self-Help
ISBN : 9781847377210

Get Book

10-10-10 by Suzy Welch Pdf

Today, the world offers us more options than ever before, but it also forces us to juggle more priorities, to make more choices, and to make them faster. The result: a crisis of doing too much, or not enough, and making our decisions based on impulse, stress or guilt. In 10-10-10Suzy Welch offers an exciting, effective strategy that will help you make the right decision in any situation, at work or at home; with colleagues, family or friends. The rule is deceptively simple: when faced with a decision, consider what the consequences and outcomes of your various options would be in 10 minutes, 10 months, and 10 years. But the results are extraordinary. Using the framework of 10-10-10will allow you to think through your decisions and to match them with the expectations and values you hold dearest. Most importantly, it allows you to chart a path in the direction you want, and to head confidently towards it with focus, balance, and joy.

Author : Chip Heath,Dan Heath
Publisher : Random House Canada
Page : 320 pages
File Size : 52,8 Mb
Release : 2013-03-26
Category : Self-Help
ISBN : 9780307361141

Get Book

Decisive by Chip Heath,Dan Heath Pdf

The four principles that can help us to overcome our brains' natural biases to make better, more informed decisions--in our lives, careers, families and organizations. In Decisive, Chip Heath and Dan Heath, the bestselling authors of Made to Stick and Switch, tackle the thorny problem of how to overcome our natural biases and irrational thinking to make better decisions, about our work, lives, companies and careers. When it comes to decision making, our brains are flawed instruments. But given that we are biologically hard-wired to act foolishly and behave irrationally at times, how can we do better? A number of recent bestsellers have identified how irrational our decision making can be. But being aware of a bias doesn't correct it, just as knowing that you are nearsighted doesn't help you to see better. In Decisive, the Heath brothers, drawing on extensive studies, stories and research, offer specific, practical tools that can help us to think more clearly about our options, and get out of our heads, to improve our decision making, at work and at home.

Author : Werner Stegmaier
Publisher : Walter de Gruyter GmbH & Co KG
Page : 321 pages
File Size : 51,7 Mb
Release : 2019-08-19
Category : Philosophy
ISBN : 9783110573909

Get Book

What is Orientation? by Werner Stegmaier Pdf

The very first thing one does in all situations of life is orient oneself. Decisions of orientation, which are mostly made under uncertainty and the pressure of time, largely determine subsequent decisions. But what is orientation? The problems of orientation are as old as humankind, the word is used everywhere, but the concept has never been thoroughly investigated. The philosopher Werner Stegmaier comprehensively clarifies for the first time the conditions and structures of orientation, including those of our sexual, economic, media, political, legal, scientific, artistic, religious, moral, and ethical orientations. He thereby establishes a new philosophical language and offers a philosophy for our time. "As if I unexpectedly slipped down into a deep vortex, I am swirled around in a way that I can neither put a foot down, nor swim to the surface. Nonetheless, I will work my way out ... " (René Descartes, Philosopher) "As often as my speculation seems to lead me too far from the paved road of common sense, I stand still and seek to orient myself. I look back at the point from which we started, and I seek to compare the two guideposts I have." (Moses Mendelssohn, Philosopher) "A philosophical problem has the form: ‘I do not know my way about.’" (Ludwig Wittgenstein, Philosopher) "The second O, orientation – as the repository of our genetic heritage, cultural tradition, and previous experiences – is the most important part of the O-O-D-A loop since it shapes the way we observe, the way we decide, the way we act." (John Boyd, Military Strategist)

Author : Susan Hatler
Publisher : Hatco Publishing
Page : 165 pages
File Size : 41,5 Mb
Release : 2021-08-20
Category : Fiction
ISBN : 8210379456XXX

Get Book

The Wedding Bet by Susan Hatler Pdf

A fun and uplifting story that will make you swoon and smile as two best friends fall in love. Kennedy needs to slow down, which is why her last boyfriend broke up with her. No matter, finding a date to her friend’s wedding should be easy enough. But when her handsome co-worker challenges her that she dates the wrong guys, he bets she can’t go a month without dating. Will this bet make her realize her fairy-tale prince has been right here this whole time? From a New York Times bestselling author, join this friendly competition that leads the heart to win in THE WEDDING BET.

Author : Joe Peta
Publisher : Penguin
Page : 384 pages
File Size : 40,9 Mb
Release : 2013-03-07
Category : Sports & Recreation
ISBN : 9781101609651

Get Book

Trading Bases by Joe Peta Pdf

An ex–Wall Street trader improved on Moneyball’s famed sabermetrics and beat the Vegas odds with his own betting methods. Here is the story of how Joe Peta turned fantasy baseball into a dream come true. Joe Peta turned his back on his Wall Street trading career to pursue an ingenious—and incredibly risky—dream. He would apply his risk-analysis skills to Major League Baseball, and treat the sport like the S&P 500. In Trading Bases, Peta takes us on his journey from the ballpark in San Francisco to the trading floors and baseball bars of New York and the sportsbooks of Las Vegas, telling the story of how he created a baseball “hedge fund” with an astounding 41 percent return in his first year. And he explains the unique methods he developed. Along the way, Peta provides insight into the Wall Street crisis he managed to escape: the fragility of the midnineties investment model; the disgraced former CEO of Lehman Brothers, who recruited Peta; and the high-adrenaline atmosphere where million-dollar sports-betting pools were common.

Author : David Sumpter
Publisher : Bloomsbury Publishing
Page : 288 pages
File Size : 41,5 Mb
Release : 2016-05-05
Category : Mathematics
ISBN : 9781472924155

Get Book

Soccermatics by David Sumpter Pdf

'Football looked at in a very different way' Pat Nevin, former Chelsea and Everton star and football media analyst Football – the most mathematical of sports. From shot statistics and league tables to the geometry of passing and managerial strategy, the modern game is filled with numbers, patterns and shapes. How do we make sense of them? The answer lies in the mathematical models applied in biology, physics and economics. Soccermatics brings football and mathematics together in a mind-bending synthesis, using numbers to help reveal the inner workings of the beautiful game. This new and expanded edition analyses the current big-name players and teams using mathematics, and meets the professionals working inside football who use numbers and statistics to boost performance. Welcome to the world of mathematical modelling, expressed brilliantly by David Sumpter through the prism of football. No matter who you follow – from your local non-league side to the big boys of the Premiership, La Liga, the Bundesliga, Serie A or the MLS – you'll be amazed at what mathematics has to teach us about the world's favourite sport.

Author : Paul Sabin
Publisher : Yale University Press
Page : 322 pages
File Size : 43,7 Mb
Release : 2013-09-03
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9780300198881

Get Book

The Bet by Paul Sabin Pdf

Author : Kathryn Hulick
Publisher : Frances Lincoln Children's Books
Page : 130 pages
File Size : 50,7 Mb
Release : 2021-10-26
Category : Juvenile Nonfiction
ISBN : 9780711251236

Get Book

Welcome to the Future by Kathryn Hulick Pdf

Have you ever wondered what the future may look like? In this book, you'll explore 10 ways technology could alter our way of life. The challenge for you is to decide which changes you want for yourself and the world. In the future, will we teleport from place to place, keep dinosaurs as pets or 3D-print our dinner? Will we live on Mars or upload our brains to computers? Could we solve climate change by making all our energy from mini stars we build here on earth? This fascinating and thought provoking book from science writer Kathryn Hulick explores the possible futures humanity will face, and how we will live as the world around us changes beyond our recognition. From genetic engineering and building floating colonies in space to developing telepathic technology and bionic body alterations, this engagingly illustrated book looks into the possible future technologies which will shape how we live and how we adapt to the challenges of the future. In this book, you'll meet the scientists working to bring science fiction to life and learn how soon we might have amazing new technology. You'll also delve deep into questions about right and wrong. Just because we can do something doesn't mean we should. How can we build the best possible future for everyone on Earth?

Author : William Poundstone
Publisher : Hill and Wang
Page : 400 pages
File Size : 54,6 Mb
Release : 2010-06-01
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 0374707081

Get Book

Fortune's Formula by William Poundstone Pdf

In 1956, two Bell Labs scientists discovered the scientific formula for getting rich. One was mathematician Claude Shannon, neurotic father of our digital age, whose genius is ranked with Einstein's. The other was John L. Kelly Jr., a Texas-born, gun-toting physicist. Together they applied the science of information theory—the basis of computers and the Internet—to the problem of making as much money as possible, as fast as possible. Shannon and MIT mathematician Edward O. Thorp took the "Kelly formula" to Las Vegas. It worked. They realized that there was even more money to be made in the stock market. Thorp used the Kelly system with his phenomenally successful hedge fund, Princeton-Newport Partners. Shannon became a successful investor, too, topping even Warren Buffett's rate of return. Fortune's Formula traces how the Kelly formula sparked controversy even as it made fortunes at racetracks, casinos, and trading desks. It reveals the dark side of this alluring scheme, which is founded on exploiting an insider's edge. Shannon believed it was possible for a smart investor to beat the market—and William Poundstone's Fortune's Formula will convince you that he was right.

Author : Dennis V. Lindley
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
Page : 268 pages
File Size : 47,9 Mb
Release : 2006-08-28
Category : Mathematics
ISBN : 9780470055472

Get Book

Understanding Uncertainty by Dennis V. Lindley Pdf

A lively and informal introduction to the role of uncertainty and probability in people's lives from an everyday perspective From television game shows and gambling techniques to weather forecasting and the financial markets, virtually every aspect of modern life involves situations in which the outcomes are uncertain and of varying qualities. But as noted statistician Dennis Lindley writes in this distinctive text, "We want you to face up to uncertainty, not hide it away under false concepts, but to understand it and, moreover, to use the recent discoveries so that you can act in the face of uncertainty more sensibly than would have been possible without the skill." Accessibly written at an elementary level, this outstanding text examines uncertainty in various everyday situations and introduces readers to three rules--craftily laid out in the book--that prove uncertainty can be handled with as much confidence as ordinary logic. Combining a concept of utility with probability, the book insightfully demonstrates how uncertainty can be measured and used in everyday life, especially in decision-making and science. With a focus on understanding and using probability calculations, Understanding Uncertainty demystifies probability and: * Explains in straightforward detail the logic of uncertainty, its truths, and its falsehoods * Explores what has been learned in the twentieth century about uncertainty * Provides a logical, sensible method for acting in the face of uncertainty * Presents vignettes of great discoveries made in the twentieth century * Shows readers how to discern if another person--whether a lawyer, politician, scientist, or journalist--is talking sense, posing the right questions, or obtaining sound answers Requiring only a basic understanding of mathematical concepts and operations, Understanding Uncertainty is useful as a text for all students who have probability or statistics as part of their course, even at the most introductory level.