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Forecasting: principles and practice by Rob J Hyndman,George Athanasopoulos Pdf
Forecasting is required in many situations. Stocking an inventory may require forecasts of demand months in advance. Telecommunication routing requires traffic forecasts a few minutes ahead. Whatever the circumstances or time horizons involved, forecasting is an important aid in effective and efficient planning. This textbook provides a comprehensive introduction to forecasting methods and presents enough information about each method for readers to use them sensibly.
Forecasting, Structural Time Series Models and the Kalman Filter by Andrew C. Harvey Pdf
A synthesis of concepts and materials, that ordinarily appear separately in time series and econometrics literature, presents a comprehensive review of theoretical and applied concepts in modeling economic and social time series.
Stochastic Models for Time Series by Paul Doukhan Pdf
This book presents essential tools for modelling non-linear time series. The first part of the book describes the main standard tools of probability and statistics that directly apply to the time series context to obtain a wide range of modelling possibilities. Functional estimation and bootstrap are discussed, and stationarity is reviewed. The second part describes a number of tools from Gaussian chaos and proposes a tour of linear time series models. It goes on to address nonlinearity from polynomial or chaotic models for which explicit expansions are available, then turns to Markov and non-Markov linear models and discusses Bernoulli shifts time series models. Finally, the volume focuses on the limit theory, starting with the ergodic theorem, which is seen as the first step for statistics of time series. It defines the distributional range to obtain generic tools for limit theory under long or short-range dependences (LRD/SRD) and explains examples of LRD behaviours. More general techniques (central limit theorems) are described under SRD; mixing and weak dependence are also reviewed. In closing, it describes moment techniques together with their relations to cumulant sums as well as an application to kernel type estimation.The appendix reviews basic probability theory facts and discusses useful laws stemming from the Gaussian laws as well as the basic principles of probability, and is completed by R-scripts used for the figures. Richly illustrated with examples and simulations, the book is recommended for advanced master courses for mathematicians just entering the field of time series, and statisticians who want more mathematical insights into the background of non-linear time series.
Time Series and Dynamic Models by Christian Gourieroux,Alain Monfort Pdf
In this book Christian Gourieroux and Alain Monfort provide an up-to-date and comprehensive analysis of modern time series econometrics. They have succeeded in synthesising in an organised and integrated way a broad and diverse literature. While the book does not assume a deep knowledge of economics, one of its most attractive features is the close attention it pays to economic models and phenomena throughout. The coverage represents a major reference tool for graduate students, researchers and applied economists. The book is divided into four sections. Section one gives a detailed treatment of classical seasonal adjustment or smoothing methods. Section two provides a thorough coverage of various mathematical tools. Section three is the heart of the book, and is devoted to a range of important topics including causality, exogeneity shocks, multipliers, cointegration and fractionally integrated models. The final section describes the main contribution of filtering and smoothing theory to time series econometric problems.
A companion volume to The Econometric Analysis of Time series, this book focuses on the estimation, testing and specification of dynamic models which are not based on any behavioural theory. It covers univariate and multivariate time series and emphasizes autoregressive moving-average processes.
State Space Modeling of Time Series by Masanao Aoki Pdf
model's predictive capability? These are some of the questions that need to be answered in proposing any time series model construction method. This book addresses these questions in Part II. Briefly, the covariance matrices between past data and future realizations of time series are used to build a matrix called the Hankel matrix. Information needed for constructing models is extracted from the Hankel matrix. For example, its numerically determined rank will be the di mension of the state model. Thus the model dimension is determined by the data, after balancing several sources of error for such model construction. The covariance matrix of the model forecasting error vector is determined by solving a certain matrix Riccati equation. This matrix is also the covariance matrix of the innovation process which drives the model in generating model forecasts. In these model construction steps, a particular model representation, here referred to as balanced, is used extensively. This mode of model representation facilitates error analysis, such as assessing the error of using a lower dimensional model than that indicated by the rank of the Hankel matrix. The well-known Akaike's canonical correlation method for model construc tion is similar to the one used in this book. There are some important differ ences, however. Akaike uses the normalized Hankel matrix to extract canonical vectors, while the method used in this book does not normalize the Hankel ma trix.
Time Series Analysis Univariate and Multivariate Methods by William W. S. Wei Pdf
With its broad coverage of methodology, this comprehensive book is a useful learning and reference tool for those in applied sciences where analysis and research of time series is useful. Its plentiful examples show the operational details and purpose of a variety of univariate and multivariate time series methods. Numerous figures, tables and real-life time series data sets illustrate the models and methods useful for analyzing, modeling, and forecasting data collected sequentially in time. The text also offers a balanced treatment between theory and applications. Time Series Analysis is a thorough introduction to both time-domain and frequency-domain analyses of univariate and multivariate time series methods, with coverage of the most recently developed techniques in the field.
Author : Peter J. Brockwell,Richard A. Davis Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media Page : 437 pages File Size : 49,6 Mb Release : 2006-04-10 Category : Computers ISBN : 9780387216577
Introduction to Time Series and Forecasting by Peter J. Brockwell,Richard A. Davis Pdf
This is an introduction to time series that emphasizes methods and analysis of data sets. The logic and tools of model-building for stationary and non-stationary time series are developed and numerous exercises, many of which make use of the included computer package, provide the reader with ample opportunity to develop skills. Statisticians and students will learn the latest methods in time series and forecasting, along with modern computational models and algorithms.
Periodic Time Series Models by Philip Hans Franses,Richard Paap Pdf
This book considers periodic time series models for seasonal data, characterized by parameters that differ across the seasons, and focuses on their usefulness for out-of-sample forecasting. Providing an up-to-date survey of the recent developments in periodic time series, the book presents a large number of empirical results. The first part of the book deals with model selection, diagnostic checking and forecasting of univariate periodic autoregressive models. Tests for periodic integration, are discussed, and an extensive discussion of the role of deterministic regressors in testing for periodic integration and in forecasting is provided. The second part discusses multivariate periodic autoregressive models. It provides an overview of periodic cointegration models, as these are the most relevant. This overview contains single-equation type tests and a full-system approach based on generalized method of moments. All methods are illustrated with extensive examples, and the book will be of interest to advanced graduate students and researchers in econometrics, as well as practitioners looking for an understanding of how to approach seasonal data.
Time Series by Raquel Prado,Marco A. R. Ferreira,Mike West Pdf
• Expanded on aspects of core model theory and methodology. • Multiple new examples and exercises. • Detailed development of dynamic factor models. • Updated discussion and connections with recent and current research frontiers.
The Analysis of Time Series: Theory and Practice by Christopher Chatfield Pdf
Time-series analysis is an area of statistics which is of particular interest at the present time. Time series arise in many different areas, ranging from marketing to oceanography, and the analysis of such series raises many problems of both a theoretical and practical nature. I first became interested in the subject as a postgraduate student at Imperial College, when I attended a stimulating course of lectures on time-series given by Dr. (now Professor) G. M. Jenkins. The subject has fascinated me ever since. Several books have been written on theoretical aspects of time-series analysis. The aim of this book is to provide an introduction to the subject which bridges the gap between theory and practice. The book has also been written to make what is rather a difficult subject as understandable as possible. Enough theory is given to introduce the concepts of time-series analysis and to make the book mathematically interesting. In addition, practical problems are considered so as to help the reader tackle the analysis of real data. The book assumes a knowledge of basic probability theory and elementary statistical inference (see Appendix III). The book can be used as a text for an undergraduate or postgraduate course in time-series, or it can be used for self tuition by research workers. Throughout the book, references are usually given to recent readily accessible books and journals rather than to the original attributive references. Wold's (1965) bibliography contains many time series references published before 1959.
Time Series Modelling with Unobserved Components by Matteo M. Pelagatti Pdf
Despite the unobserved components model (UCM) having many advantages over more popular forecasting techniques based on regression analysis, exponential smoothing, and ARIMA, the UCM is not well known among practitioners outside the academic community. Time Series Modelling with Unobserved Components rectifies this deficiency by giving a practical o
Models for Dependent Time Series by Granville Tunnicliffe Wilson,Marco Reale,John Haywood Pdf
Models for Dependent Time Series addresses the issues that arise and the methodology that can be applied when the dependence between time series is described and modeled. Whether you work in the economic, physical, or life sciences, the book shows you how to draw meaningful, applicable, and statistically valid conclusions from multivariate (or vect