U S National Security Implications Of Chinese Involvement In Latin America
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U.S. National Security Implications of Chinese Involvement in Latin America by Robert Evan Ellis Pdf
In this monograph, the author argues that China?s pursuit of longterm strategic objectives is leading the country to increase its presence in Latin America, with serious national security implications for the United States. China has begun to aggressively court Latin America as its principal source of supply outside Asia. The pattern of Chinese investment in countries such as Argentina, Brazil, and Chile suggests that the Asian giant is seeking to assure access to critical commodities by constructing vertically integrated supply networks over which it has leverage. China is purchasing interest in key Latin American suppliers such as the Canadian minerals firm Noranda, or the Argentine oil subsidiary PlusPetrol Norte. It is also building cooperative relationships with supplier governments such as the joint oil exploration and refinery construction deals signed with Venezuela and Brazil in 2004. Where necessary, China is also investing in the infrastructure of Latin American countries to help them more effectively bring their products to market.
U. S. National Security Implications of Chinese Involvement in Latin America by R. Evan Ellis Pdf
In this monograph, the author argues that China's pursuit of longterm strategic objectives is leading the country to increase its presence in Latin America, with serious national security implications for the United States. Sustained Chinese economic growth requires ever greater quantities of basic commodities such as petroleum products, coal, iron and steel, and strategic minerals. As the new generation of Chinese leadership under Hu Jintao has moved away from the more cautious approach of his predecessor, Jiang Zemin, China has begun to aggressively court Latin America as its principal source of supply outside Asia. Figures from the Chinese National Statistics Office show that, for example, 77 percent of all Chinese foreign investment outside Asia in 2003 went to Latin America. The pattern of Chinese investment in countries such as Argentina, Brazil, and Chile suggests that the Asian giant is seeking to assure access to critical commodities by constructing vertically integrated supply networks over which it has leverage. China is purchasing interest in key Latin American suppliers such as the Canadian minerals firm Noranda, or the Argentine oil subsidiary PlusPetrol Norte. It is also building cooperative relationships with supplier governments such as the joint oil exploration and refinery construction deals signed with Venezuela and Brazil in 2004. Where necessary, China is also investing in the infrastructure of Latin American countries to help them more effectively bring their products to market. In addition to documenting China's aggressive new posture in specific Latin American countries, this monograph argues that the expanded Chinese trade and investment presence in the region ultimately will give China a stake in the politics of the region and may tempt it to become involved in the region's security affairs. Expanded Chinese trade and investment in Latin America, for example, will expand greatly the community of Chinese nationals in the region. The broadened community of Chinese nationals multiplies opportunities for incidents involving those nationals, while also expanding the community in China with an interest in the region. At the same time, significant Chinese investments in Latin American extractive industries and increasing dependence on its production will cause the Chinese government to seek to deflect political movements in Latin American countries that could expropriate these investments or disrupt these resource flows. Ultimately, this monograph argues that Chinese engagement with Latin America will make the nation both a powerful competitor and a potential partner for the United States in the region. On one hand, China, with major investments in Latin America and dependence on its material flows, is likely to be a nation interested in reducing political instability, armed groups, and criminal activity in the region, rather than fueling radical populism and insurgency. On the other hand, the United States needs to consider to what degree it is willing to accept a China that has increasing leverage in Latin America through its investment and trade presence and a growing interest in the political course of the region. Now, rather than later, is the time for the United States to begin seriously considering how to most constructively engage the Chinese in the Western Hemisphere.
U.S. National Security Implications of Chinese Involvement in Latin America by R. Evan Ellis Pdf
Ultimately, this monograph argues that increasing Chinese engagement with Latin America will make the nation both a powerful competitor and a potential partner for the United States in the Western Hemisphere. On one hand, China with major investments in Latin America and dependence on its material flows is likely to be a nation interested in reducing political instability, armed groups, and criminal activity in the region-rather than fueling radical populism and insurgency. On the other hand, the United States needs to consider to what degree it is willing to accept a China that has increasing leverage in its strategic neighborhood and its major trading area. Investment and trade presence leads to growing interest in the political course of the region, and now is the time for the United States to begin to consider how to constructively engage the Chinese in the Western Hemisphere.
China-Latin America Military Engagement by Robert Evan Ellis Pdf
This monograph examines Chinese military engagement with Latin America in five areas (1) meetings between senior military officials, (2) lower-level military-to-military interactions, (3) military sales, (4) military-relevant commercial interactions, and (5) Chinese physical presence within Latin America with military-strategic implications. It finds that the level of PRC military engagement with the region is higher than is generally recognized, and has expanded in important ways in recent years: High-level trips by Latin American defense and security personnel to the PRC and visits by their Chinese counterparts have become commonplace. The volume and sophistication of Chinese arms sold to the region has increased. Officer exchange programs, institutional visits, and other lower-level ties have also expanded. Chinese military personnel have begun participating in operations in the region in a modest, yet symbolically important manner. The monograph also argues that, in the short term, PRC military engagement with Latin America does not focus on establishing alliances or base access to the United States, but rather, supporting objectives of national development and regime survival, such as building understanding and political leverage among important commercial partners, creating the tools to protect PRC interests in countries where it does business, and selling Chinese products and moving up the value added chain in strategically important sectors. It concludes that Chinese military engagement may both contribute to legitimate regional security needs, and foster misunderstanding. It argues that the U.S. should work for greater transparency with The PRC with regard to those activities, as well as to analyze how the Chinese presence will impact the calculation of the region¿s actors in the context of specific future scenarios.
U.S. National Security Implications of Chinese Involvement in Latin America by R. E. Ellis Pdf
In this monograph, the author argues that China's pursuit of longterm strategic objectives is leading the country to increase its presence in Latin America, with serious national security implications for the United States. Sustained Chinese economic growth requires ever greater quantities of basic commodities such as petroleum products, coal, iron and steel, and strategic minerals. As the new generation of Chinese leadership under Hu Jintao has moved away from the more cautious approach of his predecessor, Jiang Zemin, China has begun to aggressively court Latin America as its principal source of supply outside Asia. Figures from the Chinese National Statistics Office show that, for example, 77 percent of all Chinese foreign investment outside Asia in 2003 went to Latin America. The pattern of Chinese investment in countries such as Argentina, Brazil, and Chile suggests that the Asian giant is seeking to assure access to critical commodities by constructing vertically integrated supply networks over which it has leverage. China is purchasing interest in key Latin American suppliers such as the Canadian minerals firm Noranda, or the Argentine oil subsidiary PlusPetrol Norte. It is also building cooperative relationships with supplier governments such as the joint oil exploration and refinery construction deals signed with Venezuela and Brazil in 2004. Where necessary, China is also investing in the infrastructure of Latin American countries to help them more effectively bring their products to market. In addition to documenting China's aggressive new posture in specific Latin American countries, this monograph argues that the expanded Chinese trade and investment presence in the region ultimately will give China a stake in the politics of the region and may tempt it to become involved in the region's security affairs. Expanded Chinese trade and investment in Latin America, for example, will expand greatly the community of Chinese nationals in the region.
China-Latin America Military Engagement by R. Evan Ellis Pdf
The reemergence of China on the global stage is arguably one of the most important phenomena of our time. With its sustained high rates of economic growth, the People's Republic of China (PRC) has dra¬matically increased trade and investment flows with the rest of the world, including regions such as Latin America, with which it historically has had very little interaction. In many of these countries, the PRC has gone from having an almost negligible economic pres¬ence to replacing the United States as the number one or number two trading partner. Moreover, particular¬ly since the end of the global financial crisis, Chinese companies, in coordination with the Chinese govern-ment and banks, have begun to make multibillion dol¬lar loans and investments in Latin America, creating a rapidly expanding presence of Chinese companies and workers in the region in such sectors as construc¬tion, logistics, manufacturing, telecommunications, and retail. In terms of "soft power," the PRC has argu¬ably captured the imaginations of Latin American po¬litical leaders, businessmen, and students as a power meriting attention and, in some cases, courtship. While a great deal of attention has been given to Chinese commercial activity in Latin America, very little has been written in the open press regarding Chi¬nese military engagement with the region. While vis¬its by senior military leaders and major arms sales are reported in the Latin American press, there has been, to date, almost no detailed, comparative analysis of the PRC-Latin America military relationship. This is particularly striking, given the emphasis placed on military relationships in determining whether Chi¬nese engagement with the region constitutes a threat to U.S. national security interests. Dr. Evan Ellis of the Center for Hemispheric De¬fense Studies fills an important void in the burgeon¬ing literature regarding China's activities with Latin America. This monograph provides a detailed, re¬gion-wide analysis of PRC military engagement with Latin America, including not only arms sales, but also senior-level military visits, personnel exchanges, and activities of the People's Liberation Army (PLA) in the region, ranging from its 6-year participation in the United Nations (UN) peacekeeping forces in Haiti, to its November 2010 humanitarian exercise in Peru, An¬gel de la Paz. The work leverages the extensive Spanish and English-language primary research by Dr. Ellis in the open source literature of the region, as well as off-the-record interviews with current and former Latin American military officers who have directly partici¬pated in the activities treated. Dr. Ellis explains that Chinese military activity in Latin America is far more extensive than is commonly recognized. At the same time, it also goes against con¬ventional wisdom by arguing that, in the short term, such activity does not seek to achieve formal alliances or a permanent military presence in the region, but rather to advance commercial and political objectives to include increasing China's understanding of, and influence within, Latin American governments. While the arguments of Dr. Ellis may be surprising to some, the monograph will undoubtedly serve as an important reference point for scholars from multiple perspectives: those following the rise of China, those studying Latin American security issues, students of international relations, and students of U.S. national security, among others. In the course of these expanding interactions, the PRC has emphasized the "peaceful nature" of its in¬teractions, which have profound implications not only for the world's economy, but for its security environ¬ment as well. The growth of China has played out dif¬ferently in each region.
China in Latin America: Political and Economic Implications of Beijing's Involvement in the Region by Niccolo Locatelli Pdf
Relations with Latin America have never been and will probably never be a priority for the People's Republic of China (PRC), as they will be a dependent variable of domestic economic needs and other more important foreign policy goals among all, the ties with the United States. During the first forty years of existence, geopolitical and economic considerations (Latin America was considered to be Washington's backyard and the economies of the region were not complementary with that of China) were keeping the PRC away from the area; nevertheless, things have changed ever since the end of the Cold War, and more so since the new millenium. The PRC finds in Latin America a market of 500 million people and an almost infinite source of commodities: it currently gets from here around 17% of its overall agricultural products imports, and 11% of its fuel and mining ones. It is a big buyer of three of the four Latin American commodities (soy, copper and oil) and it's increasing its purchases of the fourth, coffee. The region is also a valuable partner in the struggle for a new world order, more democratic and more concerned with the stakes of the developing countries; it is a 33-wide voting block whose consensus is useful whenever the human rights policy of the PRC comes under the scrutiny of the United Nations or any of its agencies. Finally, Latin America is a pawn in the battle for the sovereignty over Taiwan, since 12 of the 23 countries that recognize the Republic of China (ROC) are in the area, mainly in Central America and the Caribbean, plus Paraguay alone in South America. For Latin America, the PRC is a huge 1.3 billion people market and a potential source of much-needed Foreign Direct Investment, which in actuality turns out to be smaller than expected and mostly concentrated in the fiscal heavens of the Caribbean. Politically, besides the partnership in the struggle for a new world order, the mere existence of a China-option is itself a source of leverage when Latin American countries have to deal with the United States, who now have to face a competitor on trade and politic issues in what used to be their backyard. Apparently, deepening ties with Latin America is a winning solution for the PRC. The same is not completely true for Latin America, whose relationship with Beijing can be beneficial, but with some caveats. As far as bilateral trade is concerned, the problem is that of export concentration: in 2006, 62.5% of the region's exports to China were in the commodity sector - it was just 35% in 1995. This leaves Latin America, especially South America, exposed to the price volatility of its resources, which is historically more elevated than that of the manufactured goods and breeds macroeconomic uncertainty in a region that has always struggled with that issue. Furthermore, export concentration in the commodity sector, as far as the terms of trade are favorable as in the years before the ongoing global crisis, might hinder the upgrading of the industrial structure of those countries who find in it an easy and quick source of revenues. A positive effect on the welfare of the people and the fight against poverty and inequality is not automatically related to the blossoming of exports of natural resources, but depends on economic policy choices. A more recent, less studied aspect of Sino-Latin American trade is the increasing penetration of Chinese manufactured goods in the domestic markets of the region: while initially outplacing foreign competitors, the flow is becoming a source of concern for businesses in the textile sector of countries like Argentina, Brazil, and Mexico, who find it hard to compete with the minimum cost of labor that makes Chinese goods so cheap. That explains why the region has tariffs on imports from the Middle Kingdom that are 10% above world average (20% in the case of South America). Competition with Chinese manufactures in the third markets is also Central America's main problem in its re
China, The United States, and the Future of Latin America by David Denoon Pdf
Provides insight into U.S. and Chinese involvement in aid, trade, direct investment and strategic ties in Latin America In recent years, China has become the largest trading partner for more than half the countries in Latin America, and demonstrated major commitments in aid and direct investment in various parts of the region. China has also made a number of strategic commitments to countries like Nicaragua, Cuba, and Venezuela which have long-standing policies opposing U.S. influence in the region. China, the United States, and the Future of Latin America posits that this activity is a direct challenge to the role of the U.S. in Latin America and the Caribbean. Part of a three-volume series analyzing U.S.-China relations in parts of the world where neither country is dominant, this volume analyzes the interactions between the U.S., China, and Latin America. The book series has so far considered the differences in operating styles between China and the U.S. in Central Asia and Southeast Asia. This third volume unpacks the implications of competing U.S. and Chinese interests in countries such as Brazil and Argentina, and China’s commitments in Nicaragua and Venezuela. This volume draws upon a variety of policy experts, focusing on the viewpoints of South American and Caribbean scholars as well as scholars from outside states. China’s new global reach and its ambitions, as well as the U.S. response, are analyzed in detail.A nuanced examination of current complexities and future implications, China, the United States and the Future of Latin America provides readers with varied perspectives on the changing economic and strategic picture in Latin America and the Caribbean.
China's Expansion into the Western Hemisphere by Riordan Roett,Guadalupe Paz Pdf
With President Hu Jintao's November 2004 visit to Latin America, China signaled to the rest of the world its growing interest in the region. Many observers welcome this development, highlighting the benefits of increased trade and investment, as well as diplomatic cooperation, for both sides. But other analysts have raised concerns about the relationship's impact on Latin American competitiveness and its implications for U.S. influence in Washington's traditional backyard. In C hina's Expansion into the Western Hemisphere, experts from Latin America, China, and the United States, as well as Europe, analyze the history of this triangular relationship and the motivations of each of the major players. Several chapters focus on China's growing economic ties to the region, including Latin America's role in China's search for energy resources worldwide. Other essays highlight the geopolitical implications of Chinese hemispheric policy and set recent developments in the broader context of China's role in the developing world. Together, they provide an absorbing look at a particularly sensitive aspect of China's emergence as a world power. Contributors include Christopher Alden (London School of Economics), Robert Devlin (ECLAC), Francisco González (Johns Hopkins–SAIS), Monica Hirst (Torcuato Di Tella University), Josh Kurlantzick (Carnegie Endowment for International Peace), Xiang Lanxin (Graduate Institute of International Studies, Geneva), Luisa Palacios (Barclays), Jiang Shixue (Chinese Academy of Social Sciences), Barbara Stallings (Brown University), Juan Tokatlián (San Andrés University), and Zheng Kai (Fudan University).
China's Expansion Into and U.S. Withdrawal from Argentina's Telecommunications and Space Industries and the Implications for U.S. National Security by Strategic Studies Institute,Janie Hulse Pdf
The U.S. Government is waking up to China's growing presence in Latin America. For the last several years as U.S. policymakers' attention and resources, largely diverted from Latin America, have been focused on the Middle East, China has pursued a policy of economic engagement with the region. Sino-Latin American trade has sky-rocketed, and Chinese investment in the region is picking up. In this monograph, Ms. Janie Hulse, a Latin American specialist based in Buenos Aires, Argentina, argues that increased Chinese investment in regional telecommunications and space industries has implications for U.S. national security. She believes that globalization, advances in information technology and China's growing capacity and interest in information warfare make the United States particularly vulnerable. Ms. Hulse details China's expansion into and U.S. withdrawal from these intelligence-related industries in Argentina and highlights associated risks for the United States.
This book explores China’s engagement with Latin America and the Caribbean as a case study of its broader effort to use commercial tools and instruments of state to create a global economic order that functions to its benefit, while neutralizing challenges from institutions, states, and others that would oppose it. Unlike the common representation of the Cold War as a political-military struggle, this work uniquely examines China’s current efforts as primarily seeking to dominate global value chains, with supporting political, technological, and military components. In this regard, it both leverages and goes beyond works based on dependency theory, which has played a key role in the academic and popular discourse in the region. The book examines evidence for China’s economically-focused strategy within Latin America and the Caribbean, including the interrelationships and coordination between China’s activities in different sectors, and between commercial, political, and other dimensions in the region. It further looks at the supporting role played by a diverse range of Chinese initiatives, from China’s Belt and Road initiative, to people-to-people diplomacy, soft power, security engagement, and the PRC struggle with Taiwan for diplomatic recognition in the region, among others. The book highlights the implications for Latin America and the Caribbean, and for the U.S. whose prosperity and security is intimately tied to the region.
U. S. Military,Department of Defense (DoD),Keegan Ryan,U. S. Government
Author : U. S. Military,Department of Defense (DoD),Keegan Ryan,U. S. Government Publisher : Independently Published Page : 105 pages File Size : 41,6 Mb Release : 2019-04-12 Category : Electronic ISBN : 1093722762
The Extent of Chinese Influence in Latin America - Case Studies of Chile and Mexico, Economic and Foreign Policy Changes Influenced by Domestic Agency, Growing Chinese Hegemony, Economic Compatibility by U. S. Military,Department of Defense (DoD),Keegan Ryan,U. S. Government Pdf
This thesis asks to what extent and why Chinese engagement has influenced the Latin American economic outlook and foreign policy changes in the twenty-first century and uses Chile and Mexico as case studies. The extent of Chinese engagement is established first because it is variable by country. Economic and foreign policy changes are then examined through the lens of Chinese engagement. This research found that economic and foreign policy changes were influenced by a mixture of domestic agency and growing Chinese hegemony, with Chinese engagement and influence being commensurate with the level of economic compatibility.This compilation includes a reproduction of the 2019 Worldwide Threat Assessment of the U.S. Intelligence Community.I. Introduction * A. Major Research Question * B. Significance of the Research Question * C. Research Design * D. Potential Explanations and Hypotheses * 1. Hypothesis #1: The Case for Chinese hegemony * 2. Hypothesis #2: The Case for LATAM agency * E. Structure of the Research Project * F. Literature Review * * II. A Case Study of Chinese Engagement in Chile * A. Synopsis * B. Establishing the Independent Variable: The Extent of Chinese Engagement in Chile * C. Analyzing the Dependent Variable: Change Due to China * 1. Changes in the Economic Outlook * 2. Changes in the Foreign Policy * D. Agency vs. Hegemony * 1. Chinese Hegemony: Hypothesis #1 * 2. Chilean Agency: Hypothesis #2 * III. A Case Study of Chinese Engagement In Mexico * A. Synopsis * B. Establishing the Independent Variable: The Extent of Chinese Engagement in Mexico * C. Analyzing the Dependent Variable: Change Due to China * 1. Changes in the Economic Outlook * 2. Changes in the Foreign Policy * D. Agency vs. Hegemony * 1. Mexican Agency: Hypothesis #2 * 2. Chinese Hegemony: Hypothesis #1 * IV. Conclusion * A. Implications * B. Areas for Future ResearchThe 2018 National Defense Strategy asserts that "the central challenge to U.S. prosperity and security is the reemergence of long-term, strategic competition by... revisionist powers." The revisionist powers, namely China and Russia, "want to shape a world consistent with their authoritarian model--gaining veto authority over other nations' economic, diplomatic, and security decisions." With respect to China, the National Defense Strategy says that it "is leveraging military modernization, influence operations, and predatory economics to coerce neighboring countries to reorder the Indo-Pacific region to their advantage... that seeks Indo-Pacific regional hegemony in the near-term and displacement of the United States to achieve global preeminence in the future." Latin America is beyond the traditional Indo-Pacific region, but has nonetheless felt the impact of China's rise. In fact, Chinese engagement in LATAM increased substantially in the twenty-first century. With respect to the National Defense Strategy, the research question is significant because it can help identify if China's actions to alter the international order spans the entirety of the Pacific and includes revising LATAM in accordance with its authoritarian model. The research project asks to what extent and why Chinese engagement influenced the economic outlook and foreign policy of LATAM. In doing so, this research project fills a void in the academic literature which largely analyzes one particular aspect of the China-LATAM relationship, and does not adequately address the degree of Chinese influence.
Global Trends 2040 by National Intelligence Council Pdf
"The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic marks the most significant, singular global disruption since World War II, with health, economic, political, and security implications that will ripple for years to come." -Global Trends 2040 (2021) Global Trends 2040-A More Contested World (2021), released by the US National Intelligence Council, is the latest report in its series of reports starting in 1997 about megatrends and the world's future. This report, strongly influenced by the COVID-19 pandemic, paints a bleak picture of the future and describes a contested, fragmented and turbulent world. It specifically discusses the four main trends that will shape tomorrow's world: - Demographics-by 2040, 1.4 billion people will be added mostly in Africa and South Asia. - Economics-increased government debt and concentrated economic power will escalate problems for the poor and middleclass. - Climate-a hotter world will increase water, food, and health insecurity. - Technology-the emergence of new technologies could both solve and cause problems for human life. Students of trends, policymakers, entrepreneurs, academics, journalists and anyone eager for a glimpse into the next decades, will find this report, with colored graphs, essential reading.
Global China by Tarun Chhabra,Rush Doshi,Ryan Hass Pdf
The global implications of China's rise as a global actor In 2005, a senior official in the George W. Bush administration expressed the hope that China would emerge as a “responsible stakeholder” on the world stage. A dozen years later, the Trump administration dramatically shifted course, instead calling China a “strategic competitor” whose actions routinely threaten U.S. interests. Both assessments reflected an underlying truth: China is no longer just a “rising” power. It has emerged as a truly global actor, both economically and militarily. Every day its actions affect nearly every region and every major issue, from climate change to trade, from conflict in troubled lands to competition over rules that will govern the uses of emerging technologies. To better address the implications of China's new status, both for American policy and for the broader international order, Brookings scholars conducted research over the past two years, culminating in a project: Global China: Assessing China's Growing Role in the World. The project is intended to furnish policy makers and the public with hard facts and deep insights for understanding China's regional and global ambitions. The initiative draws not only on Brookings's deep bench of China and East Asia experts, but also on the tremendous breadth of the institution's security, strategy, regional studies, technological, and economic development experts. Areas of focus include the evolution of China's domestic institutions; great power relations; the emergence of critical technologies; Asian security; China's influence in key regions beyond Asia; and China's impact on global governance and norms. Global China: Assessing China's Growing Role in the World provides the most current, broad-scope, and fact-based assessment of the implications of China's rise for the United States and the rest of the world.
