Uncertainties In Numerical Weather Prediction

Author : Haraldur Olafsson,Jian-Wen Bao
Publisher : Elsevier
Page : 366 pages
File Size : 44,8 Mb
Release : 2020-11-25
Category : Computers
ISBN : 9780128157107

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Uncertainties in Numerical Weather Prediction by Haraldur Olafsson,Jian-Wen Bao Pdf

Uncertainties in Numerical Weather Prediction is a comprehensive work on the most current understandings of uncertainties and predictability in numerical simulations of the atmosphere. It provides general knowledge on all aspects of uncertainties in the weather prediction models in a single, easy to use reference. The book illustrates particular uncertainties in observations and data assimilation, as well as the errors associated with numerical integration methods. Stochastic methods in parameterization of subgrid processes are also assessed, as are uncertainties associated with surface-atmosphere exchange, orographic flows and processes in the atmospheric boundary layer. Through a better understanding of the uncertainties to watch for, readers will be able to produce more precise and accurate forecasts. This is an essential work for anyone who wants to improve the accuracy of weather and climate forecasting and interested parties developing tools to enhance the quality of such forecasts. Provides a comprehensive overview of the state of numerical weather prediction at spatial scales, from hundreds of meters, to thousands of kilometers Focuses on short-term 1-15 day atmospheric predictions, with some coverage appropriate for longer-term forecasts Includes references to climate prediction models to allow applications of these techniques for climate simulations

Author : National Research Council,Division on Earth and Life Studies,Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate
Publisher : National Academies Press
Page : 136 pages
File Size : 41,6 Mb
Release : 2003-02-15
Category : Science
ISBN : 9780309085403

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Communicating Uncertainties in Weather and Climate Information by National Research Council,Division on Earth and Life Studies,Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate Pdf

The report explores how best to communicate weather and climate information by presenting five case studies, selected to illustrate a range of time scales and issues, from the forecasting of weather events, to providing seasonal outlooks, to projecting climate change.

Author : National Research Council,Division on Earth and Life Studies,Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate,Committee on Estimating and Communicating Uncertainty in Weather and Climate Forecasts
Publisher : National Academies Press
Page : 124 pages
File Size : 50,9 Mb
Release : 2006-10-09
Category : Science
ISBN : 9780309180535

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Completing the Forecast by National Research Council,Division on Earth and Life Studies,Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate,Committee on Estimating and Communicating Uncertainty in Weather and Climate Forecasts Pdf

Uncertainty is a fundamental characteristic of weather, seasonal climate, and hydrological prediction, and no forecast is complete without a description of its uncertainty. Effective communication of uncertainty helps people better understand the likelihood of a particular event and improves their ability to make decisions based on the forecast. Nonetheless, for decades, users of these forecasts have been conditioned to receive incomplete information about uncertainty. They have become used to single-valued (deterministic) forecasts (e.g., "the high temperature will be 70 degrees Farenheit 9 days from now") and applied their own experience in determining how much confidence to place in the forecast. Most forecast products from the public and private sectors, including those from the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration's National Weather Service, continue this deterministic legacy. Fortunately, the National Weather Service and others in the prediction community have recognized the need to view uncertainty as a fundamental part of forecasts. By partnering with other segments of the community to understand user needs, generate relevant and rich informational products, and utilize effective communication vehicles, the National Weather Service can take a leading role in the transition to widespread, effective incorporation of uncertainty information into predictions. "Completing the Forecast" makes recommendations to the National Weather Service and the broader prediction community on how to make this transition.

Author : United States. National Weather Service
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 72 pages
File Size : 48,9 Mb
Release : 1978
Category : Meteorological instruments
ISBN : PSU:000072834640

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Numerical Weather Prediction Activities Report by United States. National Weather Service Pdf

Author : Peter Michael Inness,Steve Dorling
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
Page : 276 pages
File Size : 42,7 Mb
Release : 2012-12-06
Category : Science
ISBN : 9781118447635

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Operational Weather Forecasting by Peter Michael Inness,Steve Dorling Pdf

This book offers a complete primer, covering the end-to-end process of forecast production, and bringing together a description of all the relevant aspects together in a single volume; with plenty of explanation of some of the more complex issues and examples of current, state-of-the-art practices. Operational Weather Forecasting covers the whole process of forecast production, from understanding the nature of the forecasting problem, gathering the observational data with which to initialise and verify forecasts, designing and building a model (or models) to advance those initial conditions forwards in time and then interpreting the model output and putting it into a form which is relevant to customers of weather forecasts. Included is the generation of forecasts on the monthly-to-seasonal timescales, often excluded in text-books despite this type of forecasting having been undertaken for several years. This is a rapidly developing field, with a lot of variations in practices between different forecasting centres. Thus the authors have tried to be as generic as possible when describing aspects of numerical model design and formulation. Despite the reliance on NWP, the human forecaster still has a big part to play in producing weather forecasts and this is described, along with the issue of forecast verification – how forecast centres measure their own performance and improve upon it. Advanced undergraduates and postgraduate students will use this book to understand how the theory comes together in the day-to-day applications of weather forecast production. In addition, professional weather forecasting practitioners, professional users of weather forecasts and trainers will all find this new member of the RMetS Advancing Weather and Climate series a valuable tool. Provides an end-to-end description of the weather forecasting process Clearly structured and pitched at an accessible level, the book discusses the practical choices that operational forecasting centres have to make in terms of what numerical models they use and when they are run. Takes a very practical approach, using real life case-studies to contextualize information Discusses the latest advances in the area, including ensemble methods, monthly to seasonal range prediction and use of ‘nowcasting’ tools such as radar and satellite imagery Full colour throughout Written by a highly respected team of authors with experience in both academia and practice. Part of the RMetS book series ‘Advancing Weather and Climate’

Author : Venkata Bhaskar Rao Dodla
Publisher : CRC Press
Page : 267 pages
File Size : 53,6 Mb
Release : 2022-12-16
Category : Mathematics
ISBN : 9781000815559

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Numerical Weather Prediction by Venkata Bhaskar Rao Dodla Pdf

Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) is the current state-of-art methodology to provide weather prediction at different spatial and time scales to serve user community. The NWP uses a modeling system built up adopting the mathematical equations governing atmospheric motion, incorporating the physical processes through parameterization methods, solved applying numerical methods and carrying out large number-crunching calculations on high speed computers. The NWP products have their application in agriculture, aviation, transport, tourism, sports, industry, health, energy and many other social sectors. Several decision support systems of disaster management and risk assessment are dependent on meteorological information from NWP products. The purpose of this book is to present the basics of NWP in lucid form to those who seek an overview of the science of modern weather prediction. Print edition not for sale in South Asia (India, Sri Lanka, Nepal, Bangladesh, Pakistan or Bhutan).

Author : Roberto (Professor of Physics Buizza, Professor of Physics Scuola Universitaria Sant'Anna),Roberto Buizza
Publisher : Oxford University Press
Page : 305 pages
File Size : 48,5 Mb
Release : 2023-09-13
Category : Electronic
ISBN : 9780197652138

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Weather Prediction: What Everyone Needs to Know® by Roberto (Professor of Physics Buizza, Professor of Physics Scuola Universitaria Sant'Anna),Roberto Buizza Pdf

Weather has always affected human life. Understanding how weather events form and predicting what kind of weather is coming can help enormously to manage weather-risk and will become even more important as we shift towards strongly weather-dependent energy sources. Some big steps forward in numerical weather prediction have been made in the past 40 years, thanks to advances in four key areas: the way we observe the Earth, the scientific understanding of the phenomena, advances in high-performance computing (that have allowed the use of increasingly complex models), and improved modelling techniques. Today we are capable of predicting extreme events such as hurricanes and extra-tropical windstorms very accurately up to 7 to 10 days ahead. We can predict the most likely path and intensity of storms before they hit a community, estimate the confidence level of the forecast, and can give very valuable indications of their probable impact. Larger-scale phenomena that affect entire countries, such as heat or cold waves, periods with extremely high or low temperatures lasting for days, can be forecast up to 2-to-3 weeks before the events occur. Phenomena that affect a big portion of the oceans or of a continent and that evolve slowly, such as the warming of the sea-surface temperature in the Pacific Ocean when an El Nino event occurs, can be predicted months ahead, and in some cases even longer. Weather Prediction: What Everyone Needs to Know® discusses some of the key topics linked to weather prediction and explains how we got here. It discusses questions that are often asked, such as: how are weather forecasts generated? How complex are the models used in numerical weather prediction, and how to solve them? Was this event predictable? Why was this forecast wrong? How did you manage to predict this hurricane path 10 days before the event? Will weather forecast continue to improve, or is there a predictability limit?

Author : T. N. Krishnamurti,Lahouari Bounoua
Publisher : CRC Press
Page : 293 pages
File Size : 53,9 Mb
Release : 2018-05-11
Category : Science
ISBN : 9781351467063

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An Introduction to Numerical Weather Prediction Techniques by T. N. Krishnamurti,Lahouari Bounoua Pdf

An Introduction to Numerical Weather Prediction Techniques is unique in the meteorological field as it presents for the first time theories and software of complex dynamical and physical processes required for numerical modeling. It was first prepared as a manual for the training of the World Meteorological Organization's programs at a similar level. This new book updates these exercises and also includes the latest data sets. This book covers important aspects of numerical weather prediction techniques required at an introductory level. These techniques, ranging from simple one-dimensional space derivative to complex numerical models, are first described in theory and for most cases supported by fully tested computational software. The text discusses the fundamental physical parameterizations needed in numerical weather models, such as cumulus convection, radiative transfers, and surface energy fluxes calculations. The book gives the user all the necessary elements to build a numerical model. An Introduction to Numerical Weather Prediction Techniques is rich in illustrations, especially tables showing outputs from each individual algorithm presented. Selected figures using actual meteorological data are also used. This book is primarily intended for senior-level undergraduates and first-year graduate students in meteorology. It is also excellent for individual scientists who wish to use the book for self-study. Scientists dealing with geophysical data analysis or predictive models will find this book filled with useful techniques and data-processing algorithms.

Author : Petros Katsafados,Elias Mavromatidis,Christos Spyrou
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
Page : 250 pages
File Size : 54,8 Mb
Release : 2020-07-16
Category : Mathematics
ISBN : 9781119701002

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Numerical Weather Prediction and Data Assimilation by Petros Katsafados,Elias Mavromatidis,Christos Spyrou Pdf

This book has as main aim to be an introductory textbook of applied knowledge in Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP), which is a method of weather forecasting that employs: A set of equations that describe the flow of fluids translated into computer code, combined with parameterizations of other processes, applied on a specific domain and integrated in the basis of initial and domain boundary conditions. Current weather observations serve as input to the numerical computer models through a process called data assimilation to produce atmospheric properties in the future (e.g. temperature, precipitation, and a lot of other meteorological parameters). Various case studies will be also presented and analyzed through this book.

Author : Thomas Tomkins Warner
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
Page : 550 pages
File Size : 52,8 Mb
Release : 2010-12-02
Category : Science
ISBN : 0521513898

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Numerical Weather and Climate Prediction by Thomas Tomkins Warner Pdf

This textbook provides a comprehensive yet accessible treatment of weather and climate prediction, for graduate students, researchers and professionals. It teaches the strengths, weaknesses and best practices for the use of atmospheric models. It is ideal for the many scientists who use such models across a wide variety of applications. The book describes the different numerical methods, data assimilation, ensemble methods, predictability, land-surface modeling, climate modeling and downscaling, computational fluid-dynamics models, experimental designs in model-based research, verification methods, operational prediction, and special applications such as air-quality modeling and flood prediction. This volume will satisfy everyone who needs to know about atmospheric modeling for use in research or operations. It is ideal both as a textbook for a course on weather and climate prediction and as a reference text for researchers and professionals from a range of backgrounds: atmospheric science, meteorology, climatology, environmental science, geography, and geophysical fluid mechanics/dynamics.

Author : National Meteorological Center (U.S.)
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 48 pages
File Size : 42,6 Mb
Release : 1971
Category : Meteorological instruments
ISBN : UIUC:30112110768287

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Numerical Weather Prediction Activities, National Meteorological Center by National Meteorological Center (U.S.) Pdf

Author : Lewis F. Richardson
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 264 pages
File Size : 53,5 Mb
Release : 1965
Category : Numerical weather forecasting
ISBN : UCAL:B4164263

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Weather Prediction by Numerical Process by Lewis F. Richardson Pdf

Author : Seon Ki Park
Publisher : Springer Nature
Page : 590 pages
File Size : 44,8 Mb
Release : 2023-11-20
Category : Science
ISBN : 9783031405679

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Numerical Weather Prediction: East Asian Perspectives by Seon Ki Park Pdf

This book describes the history, development, current status of numerical weather prediction (NWP), in both operational and research modes, and various applications of NWP models, which have been made by the scientists in East Asian countries. In particular, it introduces the major contributions to the worldwide NWP community achieved by East Asian scientists, including parameterizations, data assimilation techniques, parameter optimizations, and applications of the NWP models to improve the forecasts of high-impact weather systems in East Asia. This book provides both research scientists and graduate students with basic knowledge and insights on the development of NWP in East Asia.

Author : András Bátkai,Petra Csomós,István Faragó,András Horányi,Gabriella Szépszó
Publisher : Springer
Page : 264 pages
File Size : 43,7 Mb
Release : 2016-11-08
Category : Mathematics
ISBN : 9783319401577

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Mathematical Problems in Meteorological Modelling by András Bátkai,Petra Csomós,István Faragó,András Horányi,Gabriella Szépszó Pdf

This book deals with mathematical problems arising in the context of meteorological modelling. It gathers and presents some of the most interesting and important issues from the interaction of mathematics and meteorology. It is unique in that it features contributions on topics like data assimilation, ensemble prediction, numerical methods, and transport modelling, from both mathematical and meteorological perspectives. The derivation and solution of all kinds of numerical prediction models require the application of results from various mathematical fields. The present volume is divided into three parts, moving from mathematical and numerical problems through air quality modelling, to advanced applications in data assimilation and probabilistic forecasting. The book arose from the workshop “Mathematical Problems in Meteorological Modelling” held in Budapest in May 2014 and organized by the ECMI Special Interest Group on Numerical Weather Prediction. Its main objective is to highlight the beauty of the development fields discussed, to demonstrate their mathematical complexity and, more importantly, to encourage mathematicians to contribute to the further success of such practical applications as weather forecasting and climate change projections. Written by leading experts in the field, the book provides an attractive and diverse introduction to areas in which mathematicians and modellers from the meteorological community can cooperate and help each other solve the problems that operational weather centres face, now and in the near future. Readers engaged in meteorological research will become more familiar with the corresponding mathematical background, while mathematicians working in numerical analysis, partial differential equations, or stochastic analysis will be introduced to further application fields of their research area, and will find stimulation and motivation for their future research work.

Author : United States. National Weather Service
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 48 pages
File Size : 44,6 Mb
Release : 1971
Category : Meteorological instruments
ISBN : PSU:000072834565

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Numerical Weather Prediction Activities by United States. National Weather Service Pdf