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Modeling Uncertainty by Moshe Dror,Pierre Lécuyer,Pierre L'Ecuyer,Ferenc Szidarovszky Pdf
Writing in honour of Sid Yakowitz, 50 internationally known scholars have collectively contributed 30 papers on modelling uncertainty to this volume. These include papers with a theoretical emphasis and others that focus on applications.
Uncertainty Modeling for Engineering Applications by Flavio Canavero Pdf
This book provides an overview of state-of-the-art uncertainty quantification (UQ) methodologies and applications, and covers a wide range of current research, future challenges and applications in various domains, such as aerospace and mechanical applications, structure health and seismic hazard, electromagnetic energy (its impact on systems and humans) and global environmental state change. Written by leading international experts from different fields, the book demonstrates the unifying property of UQ theme that can be profitably adopted to solve problems of different domains. The collection in one place of different methodologies for different applications has the great value of stimulating the cross-fertilization and alleviate the language barrier among areas sharing a common background of mathematical modeling for problem solution. The book is designed for researchers, professionals and graduate students interested in quantitatively assessing the effects of uncertainties in their fields of application. The contents build upon the workshop “Uncertainty Modeling for Engineering Applications” (UMEMA 2017), held in Torino, Italy in November 2017.
This book presents a philosophical approach to probability and probabilistic thinking, considering the underpinnings of probabilistic reasoning and modeling, which effectively underlie everything in data science. The ultimate goal is to call into question many standard tenets and lay the philosophical and probabilistic groundwork and infrastructure for statistical modeling. It is the first book devoted to the philosophy of data aimed at working scientists and calls for a new consideration in the practice of probability and statistics to eliminate what has been referred to as the "Cult of Statistical Significance." The book explains the philosophy of these ideas and not the mathematics, though there are a handful of mathematical examples. The topics are logically laid out, starting with basic philosophy as related to probability, statistics, and science, and stepping through the key probabilistic ideas and concepts, and ending with statistical models. Its jargon-free approach asserts that standard methods, such as out-of-the-box regression, cannot help in discovering cause. This new way of looking at uncertainty ties together disparate fields — probability, physics, biology, the “soft” sciences, computer science — because each aims at discovering cause (of effects). It broadens the understanding beyond frequentist and Bayesian methods to propose a Third Way of modeling.
This book commemorates the 65th birthday of Dr. Boris Kovalerchuk, and reflects many of the research areas covered by his work. It focuses on data processing under uncertainty, especially fuzzy data processing, when uncertainty comes from the imprecision of expert opinions. The book includes 17 authoritative contributions by leading experts.
Modeling Uncertainty with Fuzzy Logic by Asli Celikyilmaz,I. Burhan Türksen Pdf
The world we live in is pervaded with uncertainty and imprecision. Is it likely to rain this afternoon? Should I take an umbrella with me? Will I be able to find parking near the campus? Should I go by bus? Such simple questions are a c- mon occurrence in our daily lives. Less simple examples: What is the probability that the price of oil will rise sharply in the near future? Should I buy Chevron stock? What are the chances that a bailout of GM, Ford and Chrysler will not s- ceed? What will be the consequences? Note that the examples in question involve both uncertainty and imprecision. In the real world, this is the norm rather than exception. There is a deep-seated tradition in science of employing probability theory, and only probability theory, to deal with uncertainty and imprecision. The mon- oly of probability theory came to an end when fuzzy logic made its debut. H- ever, this is by no means a widely accepted view. The belief persists, especially within the probability community, that probability theory is all that is needed to deal with uncertainty. To quote a prominent Bayesian, Professor Dennis Lindley, “The only satisfactory description of uncertainty is probability.
Modeling Uncertainty in the Earth Sciences by Jef Caers Pdf
Modeling Uncertainty in the Earth Sciences highlights the various issues, techniques and practical modeling tools available for modeling the uncertainty of complex Earth systems and the impact that it has on practical situations. The aim of the book is to provide an introductory overview which covers a broad range of tried-and-tested tools. Descriptions of concepts, philosophies, challenges, methodologies and workflows give the reader an understanding of the best way to make decisions under uncertainty for Earth Science problems. The book covers key issues such as: Spatial and time aspect; large complexity and dimensionality; computation power; costs of 'engineering' the Earth; uncertainty in the modeling and decision process. Focusing on reliable and practical methods this book provides an invaluable primer for the complex area of decision making with uncertainty in the Earth Sciences.
Uncertainty Analysis in Engineering and Sciences: Fuzzy Logic, Statistics, and Neural Network Approach by Bilal Ayyub,Madan M. Gupta Pdf
Uncertainty has been of concern to engineers, managers and . scientists for many centuries. In management sciences there have existed definitions of uncertainty in a rather narrow sense since the beginning of this century. In engineering and uncertainty has for a long time been considered as in sciences, however, synonymous with random, stochastic, statistic, or probabilistic. Only since the early sixties views on uncertainty have ~ecome more heterogeneous and more tools to model uncertainty than statistics have been proposed by several scientists. The problem of modeling uncertainty adequately has become more important the more complex systems have become, the faster the scientific and engineering world develops, and the more important, but also more difficult, forecasting of future states of systems have become. The first question one should probably ask is whether uncertainty is a phenomenon, a feature of real world systems, a state of mind or a label for a situation in which a human being wants to make statements about phenomena, i. e. , reality, models, and theories, respectively. One cart also ask whether uncertainty is an objective fact or just a subjective impression which is closely related to individual persons. Whether uncertainty is an objective feature of physical real systems seems to be a philosophical question. This shall not be answered in this volume.
Uncertainty Quantification in Multiscale Materials Modeling by Yan Wang,David L. McDowell Pdf
Uncertainty Quantification in Multiscale Materials Modeling provides a complete overview of uncertainty quantification (UQ) in computational materials science. It provides practical tools and methods along with examples of their application to problems in materials modeling. UQ methods are applied to various multiscale models ranging from the nanoscale to macroscale. This book presents a thorough synthesis of the state-of-the-art in UQ methods for materials modeling, including Bayesian inference, surrogate modeling, random fields, interval analysis, and sensitivity analysis, providing insight into the unique characteristics of models framed at each scale, as well as common issues in modeling across scales.
Uncertainty Modeling in Knowledge Engineering and Decision Making by Anonim Pdf
FLINS, originally an acronym for Fuzzy Logic and Intelligent Technologies in Nuclear Science, is now extended to Computational Intelligence for applied research. The contributions to the 10th of FLINS conference cover state-of-the-art research, development, and technology for computational intelligence systems, both from the foundations and the applications points-of-view. Sample Chapter(s). Foreword (55 KB). Evaluation of Manufacturing Technology of Photovoltaic Cells (124 KB). Contents: Decision Making and Decision Support Systems; Uncertainty Modeling; Foundations of Computational Intelligence; Statistics, Data Analysis and Data Mining; Intelligent Information Processing; Productivity and Reliability; Applied Research. Readership: Graduate students, researchers, and academics in artificial intelligence/machine learning, information management, decision sciences, databases/information sciences and fuzzy logic.
Modeling and Inverse Problems in the Presence of Uncertainty by H. T. Banks,Shuhua Hu,W. Clayton Thompson Pdf
Modeling and Inverse Problems in the Presence of Uncertainty collects recent research—including the authors’ own substantial projects—on uncertainty propagation and quantification. It covers two sources of uncertainty: where uncertainty is present primarily due to measurement errors and where uncertainty is present due to the modeling formulation itself. After a useful review of relevant probability and statistical concepts, the book summarizes mathematical and statistical aspects of inverse problem methodology, including ordinary, weighted, and generalized least-squares formulations. It then discusses asymptotic theories, bootstrapping, and issues related to the evaluation of correctness of assumed form of statistical models. The authors go on to present methods for evaluating and comparing the validity of appropriateness of a collection of models for describing a given data set, including statistically based model selection and comparison techniques. They also explore recent results on the estimation of probability distributions when they are embedded in complex mathematical models and only aggregate (not individual) data are available. In addition, they briefly discuss the optimal design of experiments in support of inverse problems for given models. The book concludes with a focus on uncertainty in model formulation itself, covering the general relationship of differential equations driven by white noise and the ones driven by colored noise in terms of their resulting probability density functions. It also deals with questions related to the appropriateness of discrete versus continuum models in transitions from small to large numbers of individuals. With many examples throughout addressing problems in physics, biology, and other areas, this book is intended for applied mathematicians interested in deterministic and/or stochastic models and their interactions. It is also suitable for scientists in biology, medicine, engineering, and physics working on basic modeling and inverse problems, uncertainty in modeling, propagation of uncertainty, and statistical modeling.
Mathematics of Uncertainty Modeling in the Analysis of Engineering and Science Problems by Chakraverty, S. Pdf
"This book provides the reader with basic concepts for soft computing and other methods for various means of uncertainty in handling solutions, analysis, and applications"--Provided by publisher.
Problem Solving and Uncertainty Modeling through Optimization and Soft Computing Applications by Saxena, Pratiksha Pdf
Optimization techniques have developed into a modern-day solution for real-world problems in various industries. As a way to improve performance and handle issues of uncertainty, optimization research becomes a topic of special interest across disciplines. Problem Solving and Uncertainty Modeling through Optimization and Soft Computing Applications presents the latest research trends and developments in the area of applied optimization methodologies and soft computing techniques for solving complex problems. Taking a multi-disciplinary approach, this critical publication is an essential reference source for engineers, managers, researchers, and post-graduate students.
Bayesian Modeling of Uncertainty in Low-Level Vision by Richard Szeliski Pdf
Vision has to deal with uncertainty. The sensors are noisy, the prior knowledge is uncertain or inaccurate, and the problems of recovering scene information from images are often ill-posed or underconstrained. This research monograph, which is based on Richard Szeliski's Ph.D. dissertation at Carnegie Mellon University, presents a Bayesian model for representing and processing uncertainty in low level vision. Recently, probabilistic models have been proposed and used in vision. Sze liski's method has a few distinguishing features that make this monograph im portant and attractive. First, he presents a systematic Bayesian probabilistic estimation framework in which we can define and compute the prior model, the sensor model, and the posterior model. Second, his method represents and computes explicitly not only the best estimates but also the level of uncertainty of those estimates using second order statistics, i.e., the variance and covariance. Third, the algorithms developed are computationally tractable for dense fields, such as depth maps constructed from stereo or range finder data, rather than just sparse data sets. Finally, Szeliski demonstrates successful applications of the method to several real world problems, including the generation of fractal surfaces, motion estimation without correspondence using sparse range data, and incremental depth from motion.
Natural Hazard Uncertainty Assessment by Karin Riley,Peter Webley,Matthew Thompson Pdf
Uncertainties are pervasive in natural hazards, and it is crucial to develop robust and meaningful approaches to characterize and communicate uncertainties to inform modeling efforts. In this monograph we provide a broad, cross-disciplinary overview of issues relating to uncertainties faced in natural hazard and risk assessment. We introduce some basic tenets of uncertainty analysis, discuss issues related to communication and decision support, and offer numerous examples of analyses and modeling approaches that vary by context and scope. Contributors include scientists from across the full breath of the natural hazard scientific community, from those in real-time analysis of natural hazards to those in the research community from academia and government. Key themes and highlights include: Substantial breadth and depth of analysis in terms of the types of natural hazards addressed, the disciplinary perspectives represented, and the number of studies included Targeted, application-centered analyses with a focus on development and use of modeling techniques to address various sources of uncertainty Emphasis on the impacts of climate change on natural hazard processes and outcomes Recommendations for cross-disciplinary and science transfer across natural hazard sciences This volume will be an excellent resource for those interested in the current work on uncertainty classification/quantification and will document common and emergent research themes to allow all to learn from each other and build a more connected but still diverse and ever growing community of scientists. Read an interview with the editors to find out more: https://eos.org/editors-vox/reducing-uncertainty-in-hazard-prediction
