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Author : David F. Hendry,Neil R. Ericsson
Publisher : MIT Press
Page : 236 pages
File Size : 50,5 Mb
Release : 2003
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 0262582422
How to interpret and evaluate economic forecasts and the uncertainties inherent in them.
Author : David F. Hendry,Neil R. Ericsson
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 128 pages
File Size : 45,8 Mb
Release : 2003
Category : Economic forecasting
ISBN : OCLC:253930249
Author : Graham Elliott,Allan Timmermann
Publisher : Princeton University Press
Page : 566 pages
File Size : 40,6 Mb
Release : 2016-04-05
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9780691140131
A comprehensive and integrated approach to economic forecasting problems Economic forecasting involves choosing simple yet robust models to best approximate highly complex and evolving data-generating processes. This poses unique challenges for researchers in a host of practical forecasting situations, from forecasting budget deficits and assessing financial risk to predicting inflation and stock market returns. Economic Forecasting presents a comprehensive, unified approach to assessing the costs and benefits of different methods currently available to forecasters. This text approaches forecasting problems from the perspective of decision theory and estimation, and demonstrates the profound implications of this approach for how we understand variable selection, estimation, and combination methods for forecasting models, and how we evaluate the resulting forecasts. Both Bayesian and non-Bayesian methods are covered in depth, as are a range of cutting-edge techniques for producing point, interval, and density forecasts. The book features detailed presentations and empirical examples of a range of forecasting methods and shows how to generate forecasts in the presence of large-dimensional sets of predictor variables. The authors pay special attention to how estimation error, model uncertainty, and model instability affect forecasting performance. Presents a comprehensive and integrated approach to assessing the strengths and weaknesses of different forecasting methods Approaches forecasting from a decision theoretic and estimation perspective Covers Bayesian modeling, including methods for generating density forecasts Discusses model selection methods as well as forecast combinations Covers a large range of nonlinear prediction models, including regime switching models, threshold autoregressions, and models with time-varying volatility Features numerous empirical examples Examines the latest advances in forecast evaluation Essential for practitioners and students alike
Author : Jennifer Castle,David F. Hendry,Michael P. Clements
Publisher : Yale University Press
Page : 228 pages
File Size : 54,5 Mb
Release : 2019-06-11
Category : Economic forecasting
ISBN : 9780300244663
Concise, engaging, and highly intuitive--this accessible guide equips you with an understanding of all the basic principles of forecasting Making accurate predictions about the economy has always been difficult, as F. A. Hayek noted when accepting his Nobel Prize in economics, but today forecasters have to contend with increasing complexity and unpredictable feedback loops. In this accessible and engaging guide, David Hendry, Michael Clements, and Jennifer Castle provide a concise and highly intuitive overview of the process and problems of forecasting. They explain forecasting concepts including how to evaluate forecasts, how to respond to forecast failures, and the challenges of forecasting accurately in a rapidly changing world. Topics covered include: What is a forecast? How are forecasts judged? And how can forecast failure be avoided? Concepts are illustrated using real-world examples including financial crises, the uncertainty of Brexit, and the Federal Reserve's record on forecasting. This is an ideal introduction for university students studying forecasting, practitioners new to the field and for general readers interested in how economists forecast.
Author : Elia Xacapyr
Publisher : Routledge
Page : 200 pages
File Size : 41,6 Mb
Release : 2016-09-16
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781315480671
An overview of the macroeconomic forecasting industry in the United States that explains and evaluates the forecasting techniques used to make predictions about various aspects of the national economy.
Author : Graham Elliott,Allan Timmermann
Publisher : Princeton University Press
Page : 566 pages
File Size : 44,6 Mb
Release : 2016-04-05
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9780691140131
A comprehensive and integrated approach to economic forecasting problems Economic forecasting involves choosing simple yet robust models to best approximate highly complex and evolving data-generating processes. This poses unique challenges for researchers in a host of practical forecasting situations, from forecasting budget deficits and assessing financial risk to predicting inflation and stock market returns. Economic Forecasting presents a comprehensive, unified approach to assessing the costs and benefits of different methods currently available to forecasters. This text approaches forecasting problems from the perspective of decision theory and estimation, and demonstrates the profound implications of this approach for how we understand variable selection, estimation, and combination methods for forecasting models, and how we evaluate the resulting forecasts. Both Bayesian and non-Bayesian methods are covered in depth, as are a range of cutting-edge techniques for producing point, interval, and density forecasts. The book features detailed presentations and empirical examples of a range of forecasting methods and shows how to generate forecasts in the presence of large-dimensional sets of predictor variables. The authors pay special attention to how estimation error, model uncertainty, and model instability affect forecasting performance. Presents a comprehensive and integrated approach to assessing the strengths and weaknesses of different forecasting methods Approaches forecasting from a decision theoretic and estimation perspective Covers Bayesian modeling, including methods for generating density forecasts Discusses model selection methods as well as forecast combinations Covers a large range of nonlinear prediction models, including regime switching models, threshold autoregressions, and models with time-varying volatility Features numerous empirical examples Examines the latest advances in forecast evaluation Essential for practitioners and students alike
Author : Hans G. Graf
Publisher : Bloomsbury Publishing USA
Page : 264 pages
File Size : 50,7 Mb
Release : 2002-08-30
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9780313017414
Before future-oriented information can be used as a basis for decision making in economics or business administration, it must be understood on a methodological level. This book provides decision makers with a thorough understanding of the possibilities offered by various forecasting methods as well as their limitations. If managers rely on a forecast with a long-term perspective to guide them in making short-term decisions, planning deficiencies will likely result. Likewise, if managers use short-term forecasts to inform their long-term strategic vision, failure could easily ensue. Graf provides the tools necessary to sidestep the common pitfall of using the wrong forecasting technique for the wrong purpose. This is not a detailed examination of the mathematical and statistical tools of empirical economic research. Instead, forecasting methods are explained so that they can be understood by the managers who employ them in their decision making. Graf demonstrates that understanding and—in special cases—cooperation between forecast developers and users is crucial to creating an effective forecast that results in informed management decisions. He discusses traditional, long-term, macroeconomic, and global economic forecasting; the scenario technique as a central instrument of long-term forecasting; and short-term economic and market forecasting.
Author : Lawrence Robert Klein
Publisher : Edward Elgar Publishing
Page : 400 pages
File Size : 53,9 Mb
Release : 2009-01-01
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781849802161
In this valuable volume, Nobel Prize-winner Klein gathers together a group of authors who focus on forecasting models for a number of economies. The variety of the models and the structural differences among them are especially interesting. . . Readers interested in forecasting methodologies will find much of value in this volume. Highly recommended. I. Walter, Choice This important book, prepared under the direction of Nobel Laureate Lawrence R. Klein, shows how economic forecasts are made. It explains how modern developments in information technology have made it possible to forecast frequently at least monthly but also weekly or bi-weekly depending upon the perceived needs of potential forecast users and also on the availability of updated material. The book focuses on forecasts in a diverse range of economies including the United States, China, India, Russia, Germany, Japan, South Korea, and Turkey. At a time of great economic uncertainty, this book makes an important contribution by showing how new information technology can be used to prepare national economic forecasts.
Author : G. Elliott,C. W.J. Granger,A. G. Timmermann
Publisher : Elsevier
Page : 1070 pages
File Size : 49,6 Mb
Release : 2006-05-30
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9780080460673
Research on forecasting methods has made important progress over recent years and these developments are brought together in the Handbook of Economic Forecasting. The handbook covers developments in how forecasts are constructed based on multivariate time-series models, dynamic factor models, nonlinear models and combination methods. The handbook also includes chapters on forecast evaluation, including evaluation of point forecasts and probability forecasts and contains chapters on survey forecasts and volatility forecasts. Areas of applications of forecasts covered in the handbook include economics, finance and marketing. *Addresses economic forecasting methodology, forecasting models, forecasting with different data structures, and the applications of forecasting methods *Insights within this volume can be applied to economics, finance and marketing disciplines
Author : Mervin A. Daub
Publisher : McGill-Queen's Press - MQUP
Page : 260 pages
File Size : 43,7 Mb
Release : 1987
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 0773506217
Forecasting is an important part of the desire to influence our destiny in an uncertain future. While there are many faces to the forecasting Eve, perhaps the most important in the present age involves prediction about economic matters relating to the larger community. Mervin Daub argues that careful consideration of aggregate economic forecasting, in this case with particular reference to Canada, enables us to better understand the role which prediction plays in human affairs.
Author : Gloria González-Rivera
Publisher : Routledge
Page : 749 pages
File Size : 53,6 Mb
Release : 2016-12-05
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781315510392
For junior/senior undergraduates in a variety of fields such as economics, business administration, applied mathematics and statistics, and for graduate students in quantitative masters programs such as MBA and MA/MS in economics. A student-friendly approach to understanding forecasting. Knowledge of forecasting methods is among the most demanded qualifications for professional economists, and business people working in either the private or public sectors of the economy. The general aim of this textbook is to carefully develop sophisticated professionals, who are able to critically analyze time series data and forecasting reports because they have experienced the merits and shortcomings of forecasting practice.
Author : N. Carnot,V. Koen,B. Tissot
Publisher : Palgrave Macmillan
Page : 0 pages
File Size : 48,6 Mb
Release : 2011-07-26
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 0230243215
Economic Forecasting provides a comprehensive overview of macroeconomic forecasting. The focus is first on a wide range of theories as well as empirical methods: business cycle analysis, time series methods, macroeconomic models, medium and long-run projections, fiscal and financial forecasts, and sectoral forecasting.
Author : Michael P. Clements,David F. Hendry
Publisher : Oxford University Press
Page : 744 pages
File Size : 44,9 Mb
Release : 2011-06-29
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 0199875510
This Handbook provides up-to-date coverage of both new and well-established fields in the sphere of economic forecasting. The chapters are written by world experts in their respective fields, and provide authoritative yet accessible accounts of the key concepts, subject matter, and techniques in a number of diverse but related areas. It covers the ways in which the availability of ever more plentiful data and computational power have been used in forecasting, in terms of the frequency of observations, the number of variables, and the use of multiple data vintages. Greater data availability has been coupled with developments in statistical theory and economic analysis to allow more elaborate and complicated models to be entertained; the volume provides explanations and critiques of these developments. These include factor models, DSGE models, restricted vector autoregressions, and non-linear models, as well as models for handling data observed at mixed frequencies, high-frequency data, multiple data vintages, methods for forecasting when there are structural breaks, and how breaks might be forecast. Also covered are areas which are less commonly associated with economic forecasting, such as climate change, health economics, long-horizon growth forecasting, and political elections. Econometric forecasting has important contributions to make in these areas along with how their developments inform the mainstream.
Author : Ken Holden,D. Peel,John L. Thompson
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
Page : 228 pages
File Size : 40,5 Mb
Release : 1990
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 052135692X
This work is the only currently available text that provides comprehensive coverage of the methods and applications in the rapidly developing field of forecasting the future state of the economy.
Author : N. Carnot,V. Koen,B. Tissot
Publisher : Springer
Page : 315 pages
File Size : 53,5 Mb
Release : 2005-08-12
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9780230005815
Economic Forecasting provides a comprehensive overview of macroeconomic forecasting. The focus is first on a wide range of theories as well as empirical methods: business cycle analysis, time series methods, macroeconomic models, medium and long-run projections, fiscal and financial forecasts, and sectoral forecasting. In addition, the book addresses the main issues surrounding the use of forecasts (accuracy, communication challenges) and their policy implications. A tour of the economic data and forecasting institutions is also provided.