What Happens If Central Banks Misdiagnose A Slowdown In Potential Output

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What Happens if Central Banks Misdiagnose a Slowdown in Potential Output

Mr.Bas B. Bakker
What Happens if Central Banks Misdiagnose a Slowdown in Potential Output Book PDF

Author : Mr.Bas B. Bakker
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 41 pages
File Size : 54,5 Mb
Release : 2019-09-27
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781513512532

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What Happens if Central Banks Misdiagnose a Slowdown in Potential Output by Mr.Bas B. Bakker Pdf

In the last few decades, real GDP growth and investment in advanced countries have declined in tandem. This slowdown was not the result of weak demand (there has been no shift along the Okun curve), but of a decline in potential output growth (which has shifted the Okun curve to the left). We analyze what happens if central banks mistakenly diagnose the problem as insufficient demand, when it is actually a supply problem. We do this in a real model, in which inflation is not an issue. We show that aggressive central bank action may revive gross investment, but it will not revive net investment or growth. Moreover, low interest rates will lead to an increase in the capital output ratio, a low return on capital and high leverage. We show that these forecasts are in line with what has happened in major advanced countries.

What Happens if Central Banks Misdiagnose a Slowdown in Potential Output

Mr.Bas B. Bakker
What Happens if Central Banks Misdiagnose a Slowdown in Potential Output Book PDF

Author : Mr.Bas B. Bakker
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 41 pages
File Size : 49,5 Mb
Release : 2019-09-27
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781513515878

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What Happens if Central Banks Misdiagnose a Slowdown in Potential Output by Mr.Bas B. Bakker Pdf

In the last few decades, real GDP growth and investment in advanced countries have declined in tandem. This slowdown was not the result of weak demand (there has been no shift along the Okun curve), but of a decline in potential output growth (which has shifted the Okun curve to the left). We analyze what happens if central banks mistakenly diagnose the problem as insufficient demand, when it is actually a supply problem. We do this in a real model, in which inflation is not an issue. We show that aggressive central bank action may revive gross investment, but it will not revive net investment or growth. Moreover, low interest rates will lead to an increase in the capital output ratio, a low return on capital and high leverage. We show that these forecasts are in line with what has happened in major advanced countries.

Fiscal Monitor, April 2020

International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.
Fiscal Monitor April 2020 Book PDF

Author : International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 145 pages
File Size : 41,5 Mb
Release : 2020-04-15
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781513537511

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Fiscal Monitor, April 2020 by International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept. Pdf

Chapter 1 argues that fiscal policies are at the forefront of responding to the COVID-19 pandemic. Fiscal measures can save lives, protect the most-affected people and firms from the economic impact of the pandemic, and prevent the health crisis from turning into a deep long-lasting slump. A key priority is to fully accommodate spending on health and emergency services. Global coordination is for a universally low-cost vaccine and to support countries with limited health capacity. Large, temporary and targeted support is urgently needed for affected workers and firms until the emergency abates. As the shutdowns end, broad-based, coordinated fiscal stimulus—where financing conditions permit—will become more effective in fostering the recovery. Chapter 2 argues that fiscal policies are at the forefront of facilitating an economic recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic once the Great Lockdown ends. Policymakers can achieve this objective with IDEAS: Invest for the future—in health systems, infrastructure, low carbon technologies, education, and research; adopt well-planned Discretionary policies that can be deployed quickly; and Enhance Automatic Stabilizers, which are built-in budgetary tax and spending measures that automatically stabilize incomes and consumption. Importantly, improving unemployment benefit systems and social safety nets can protect household incomes from adverse shocks and strengthen resilience against future epidemics. Over the past decade, state-owned enterprises (SOEs) have doubled in importance among the world’s largest corporations. They often deliver basic services such as water, electricity, and loans for families and small businesses. At their best, they can help promote higher economic growth and achieve development goals. However, many are a burden to taxpayers and the economy. Chapter 3 discusses what governments can do to get the most out of SOEs. This includes ensuring the firm’s managers have the right incentives and there is effective oversight. It also requires a high degree of transparency of their activities.

Financial Crises Explanations, Types, and Implications

Mr.Stijn Claessens,Mr.Ayhan Kose
Financial Crises Explanations Types and Implications Book PDF

Author : Mr.Stijn Claessens,Mr.Ayhan Kose
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 66 pages
File Size : 52,8 Mb
Release : 2013-01-30
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781475561005

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Financial Crises Explanations, Types, and Implications by Mr.Stijn Claessens,Mr.Ayhan Kose Pdf

This paper reviews the literature on financial crises focusing on three specific aspects. First, what are the main factors explaining financial crises? Since many theories on the sources of financial crises highlight the importance of sharp fluctuations in asset and credit markets, the paper briefly reviews theoretical and empirical studies on developments in these markets around financial crises. Second, what are the major types of financial crises? The paper focuses on the main theoretical and empirical explanations of four types of financial crises—currency crises, sudden stops, debt crises, and banking crises—and presents a survey of the literature that attempts to identify these episodes. Third, what are the real and financial sector implications of crises? The paper briefly reviews the short- and medium-run implications of crises for the real economy and financial sector. It concludes with a summary of the main lessons from the literature and future research directions.

Global Trends 2040

National Intelligence Council
Global Trends 2040 Book PDF

Author : National Intelligence Council
Publisher : Cosimo Reports
Page : 158 pages
File Size : 44,5 Mb
Release : 2021-03
Category : Electronic
ISBN : 1646794974

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Global Trends 2040 by National Intelligence Council Pdf

"The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic marks the most significant, singular global disruption since World War II, with health, economic, political, and security implications that will ripple for years to come." -Global Trends 2040 (2021) Global Trends 2040-A More Contested World (2021), released by the US National Intelligence Council, is the latest report in its series of reports starting in 1997 about megatrends and the world's future. This report, strongly influenced by the COVID-19 pandemic, paints a bleak picture of the future and describes a contested, fragmented and turbulent world. It specifically discusses the four main trends that will shape tomorrow's world: - Demographics-by 2040, 1.4 billion people will be added mostly in Africa and South Asia. - Economics-increased government debt and concentrated economic power will escalate problems for the poor and middleclass. - Climate-a hotter world will increase water, food, and health insecurity. - Technology-the emergence of new technologies could both solve and cause problems for human life. Students of trends, policymakers, entrepreneurs, academics, journalists and anyone eager for a glimpse into the next decades, will find this report, with colored graphs, essential reading.

World Economic Outlook, April 2018

International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
World Economic Outlook April 2018 Book PDF

Author : International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 302 pages
File Size : 54,5 Mb
Release : 2018-04-17
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781484338278

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World Economic Outlook, April 2018 by International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. Pdf

This report describes the world economic outlook as of April 2018, projecting that advanced economies will continue to expand above their potential growth rates before decelerating, while growth in emerging markets in developing economies will rise before leveling off. It details global prospects and policies, including risks to the forecast, and essential determinants of long-term economic growth: labor force participation in advanced economies, the declining share of manufacturing jobs globally and in advanced economies, and the process through which innovative activity and technological knowledge spread across national borders.

Achieving Sustainable Development and Promoting Development Cooperation

Department of Economic & Social Affairs,United Nations,United Nations. Office for ECOSOC Support and Coordination
Achieving Sustainable Development and Promoting Development Cooperation Book PDF

Author : Department of Economic & Social Affairs,United Nations,United Nations. Office for ECOSOC Support and Coordination
Publisher : United Nations Publications
Page : 295 pages
File Size : 50,6 Mb
Release : 2008
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9211045878

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Achieving Sustainable Development and Promoting Development Cooperation by Department of Economic & Social Affairs,United Nations,United Nations. Office for ECOSOC Support and Coordination Pdf

This book presents an overview of the key debates that took place during the Economic and Social Council meetings at the 2007 High-level Segment, at which ECOSOC organized its first biennial Development Cooperation Forum. The discussions also revolved around the theme of the second Annual Ministerial Review, "Implementing the internationally agreed goals and commitments in regard to sustainable development."--P. 4 of cover.

Stabilizing an Unstable Economy

Hyman Minsky
Stabilizing an Unstable Economy Book PDF

Author : Hyman Minsky
Publisher : McGraw Hill Professional
Page : 350 pages
File Size : 54,6 Mb
Release : 2008-05-01
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9780071593007

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Stabilizing an Unstable Economy by Hyman Minsky Pdf

“Mr. Minsky long argued markets were crisis prone. His 'moment' has arrived.” -The Wall Street Journal In his seminal work, Minsky presents his groundbreaking financial theory of investment, one that is startlingly relevant today. He explains why the American economy has experienced periods of debilitating inflation, rising unemployment, and marked slowdowns-and why the economy is now undergoing a credit crisis that he foresaw. Stabilizing an Unstable Economy covers: The natural inclination of complex, capitalist economies toward instability Booms and busts as unavoidable results of high-risk lending practices “Speculative finance” and its effect on investment and asset prices Government's role in bolstering consumption during times of high unemployment The need to increase Federal Reserve oversight of banks Henry Kaufman, president, Henry Kaufman & Company, Inc., places Minsky's prescient ideas in the context of today's financial markets and institutions in a fascinating new preface. Two of Minsky's colleagues, Dimitri B. Papadimitriou, Ph.D. and president, The Levy Economics Institute of Bard College, and L. Randall Wray, Ph.D. and a senior scholar at the Institute, also weigh in on Minsky's present relevance in today's economic scene in a new introduction. A surge of interest in and respect for Hyman Minsky's ideas pervades Wall Street, as top economic thinkers and financial writers have started using the phrase “Minsky moment” to describe America's turbulent economy. There has never been a more appropriate time to read this classic of economic theory.

The Japanese Banking Crisis

Ryozo Himino
The Japanese Banking Crisis Book PDF

Author : Ryozo Himino
Publisher : Springer Nature
Page : 127 pages
File Size : 53,5 Mb
Release : 2021-01-07
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9789811595981

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The Japanese Banking Crisis by Ryozo Himino Pdf

This open access book provides a readable narrative of the bubbles and the banking crisis Japan experienced during the two decades between the late 1980s and the early 2000s. Japan, which was a leading competitor in the world’s manufacturing sector, tried to transform itself into an economy with domestic demand-led mature growth, but the ensuing bubbles and crisis instead made the country suffer from chronicle deflation and stagnation. The book analyses why the Japanese authorities could not avoid making choices that led to this outcome. The chapters are based on the lectures to regulators from emerging economies delivered at the Global Financial Partnership Center of the Financial Services Agency of Japan.

World Development Report 2020

World Bank
World Development Report 2020 Book PDF

Author : World Bank
Publisher : World Bank Publications
Page : 511 pages
File Size : 46,5 Mb
Release : 2019-11-19
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781464814952

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World Development Report 2020 by World Bank Pdf

Global value chains (GVCs) powered the surge of international trade after 1990 and now account for almost half of all trade. This shift enabled an unprecedented economic convergence: poor countries grew rapidly and began to catch up with richer countries. Since the 2008 global financial crisis, however, the growth of trade has been sluggish and the expansion of GVCs has stalled. Meanwhile, serious threats have emerged to the model of trade-led growth. New technologies could draw production closer to the consumer and reduce the demand for labor. And trade conflicts among large countries could lead to a retrenchment or a segmentation of GVCs. World Development Report 2020: Trading for Development in the Age of Global Value Chains examines whether there is still a path to development through GVCs and trade. It concludes that technological change is, at this stage, more a boon than a curse. GVCs can continue to boost growth, create better jobs, and reduce poverty provided that developing countries implement deeper reforms to promote GVC participation; industrial countries pursue open, predictable policies; and all countries revive multilateral cooperation.

The Globalization Paradox

Dani Rodrik
The Globalization Paradox Book PDF

Author : Dani Rodrik
Publisher : Oxford University Press
Page : 369 pages
File Size : 49,7 Mb
Release : 2011-03-24
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9780199603336

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The Globalization Paradox by Dani Rodrik Pdf

For a century, economists have driven forward the cause of globalization in financial institutions, labour markets, and trade. Yet there have been consistent warning signs that a global economy and free trade might not always be advantageous. Where are the pressure points? What could be done about them?Dani Rodrik examines the back-story from its seventeenth-century origins through the milestones of the gold standard, the Bretton Woods Agreement, and the Washington Consensus, to the present day. Although economic globalization has enabled unprecedented levels of prosperity in advanced countries and has been a boon to hundreds of millions of poor workers in China and elsewhere in Asia, it is a concept that rests on shaky pillars, he contends. Its long-term sustainability is not a given.The heart of Rodrik>'s argument is a fundamental 'trilemma': that we cannot simultaneously pursue democracy, national self-determination, and economic globalization. Give too much power to governments, and you have protectionism. Give markets too much freedom, and you have an unstable world economy with little social and political support from those it is supposed to help. Rodrik argues for smart globalization, not maximum globalization.

World Development Report 2006

Francisco H. G. Ferreira,Michael Walton
World Development Report 2006 Book PDF

Author : Francisco H. G. Ferreira,Michael Walton
Publisher : World Bank Publications
Page : 341 pages
File Size : 50,8 Mb
Release : 2005-01-01
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9780821362501

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World Development Report 2006 by Francisco H. G. Ferreira,Michael Walton Pdf

Inequality of opportunity, both within and among nations, sustains extreme deprivation, results in wasted human potential and often weakens prospects for overall prosperity and economic growth, concludes the 2006 World Development Report. To correct this situation and reduce poverty more effectively, Equity and Development recommends ensuring more equitable access by the poor to health care, education, jobs, capital, and secure land rights, among others. It also calls for greater equality of access to political freedoms and political power, breaking down stereotyping and discrimination, and improving access by the poor to justice systems and infrastructure. To level the playing field among countries, and thereby reduce global inequities that hurt the poor in developing countries, the report calls for removal of trade barriers in rich countries, flexibility to allow greater in-migration of lower-skilled people from developing countries, and increased -- and more effective -- development assistance.

Improving Diagnosis in Health Care

National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine,Institute of Medicine,Board on Health Care Services,Committee on Diagnostic Error in Health Care
Improving Diagnosis in Health Care Book PDF

Author : National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine,Institute of Medicine,Board on Health Care Services,Committee on Diagnostic Error in Health Care
Publisher : National Academies Press
Page : 473 pages
File Size : 45,6 Mb
Release : 2015-12-29
Category : Medical
ISBN : 9780309377720

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Improving Diagnosis in Health Care by National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine,Institute of Medicine,Board on Health Care Services,Committee on Diagnostic Error in Health Care Pdf

Getting the right diagnosis is a key aspect of health care - it provides an explanation of a patient's health problem and informs subsequent health care decisions. The diagnostic process is a complex, collaborative activity that involves clinical reasoning and information gathering to determine a patient's health problem. According to Improving Diagnosis in Health Care, diagnostic errors-inaccurate or delayed diagnoses-persist throughout all settings of care and continue to harm an unacceptable number of patients. It is likely that most people will experience at least one diagnostic error in their lifetime, sometimes with devastating consequences. Diagnostic errors may cause harm to patients by preventing or delaying appropriate treatment, providing unnecessary or harmful treatment, or resulting in psychological or financial repercussions. The committee concluded that improving the diagnostic process is not only possible, but also represents a moral, professional, and public health imperative. Improving Diagnosis in Health Care, a continuation of the landmark Institute of Medicine reports To Err Is Human (2000) and Crossing the Quality Chasm (2001), finds that diagnosis-and, in particular, the occurrence of diagnostic errorsâ€"has been largely unappreciated in efforts to improve the quality and safety of health care. Without a dedicated focus on improving diagnosis, diagnostic errors will likely worsen as the delivery of health care and the diagnostic process continue to increase in complexity. Just as the diagnostic process is a collaborative activity, improving diagnosis will require collaboration and a widespread commitment to change among health care professionals, health care organizations, patients and their families, researchers, and policy makers. The recommendations of Improving Diagnosis in Health Care contribute to the growing momentum for change in this crucial area of health care quality and safety.

Globalization and Its Discontents

Joseph E. Stiglitz
Globalization and Its Discontents Book PDF

Author : Joseph E. Stiglitz
Publisher : W. W. Norton & Company
Page : 304 pages
File Size : 48,7 Mb
Release : 2003-04-17
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9780393071078

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Globalization and Its Discontents by Joseph E. Stiglitz Pdf

This powerful, unsettling book gives us a rare glimpse behind the closed doors of global financial institutions by the winner of the 2001 Nobel Prize in Economics. When it was first published, this national bestseller quickly became a touchstone in the globalization debate. Renowned economist and Nobel Prize winner Joseph E. Stiglitz had a ringside seat for most of the major economic events of the last decade, including stints as chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers and chief economist at the World Bank. Particularly concerned with the plight of the developing nations, he became increasingly disillusioned as he saw the International Monetary Fund and other major institutions put the interests of Wall Street and the financial community ahead of the poorer nations. Those seeking to understand why globalization has engendered the hostility of protesters in Seattle and Genoa will find the reasons here. While this book includes no simple formula on how to make globalization work, Stiglitz provides a reform agenda that will provoke debate for years to come. Rarely do we get such an insider's analysis of the major institutions of globalization as in this penetrating book. With a new foreword for this paperback edition.

Trade and Development Report 2011

United Nations
Trade and Development Report 2011 Book PDF

Author : United Nations
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 0 pages
File Size : 49,6 Mb
Release : 2011-09
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9211128226

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Trade and Development Report 2011 by United Nations Pdf

What lessons have policy makers drawn from the global financial and economic crisis to reform the international monetary and financial system and the design of macroeconomic policies? The enthusiasm about system reform and a reorientation of macroeconomic policies has not lasted. Reforms of financial regulations are progressing slowly and only at the national level, monetary system reform is limited. After an interlude that some considered as a return to Keynesianism, the orientation of macroeconomic policy, especially fiscal policy, is back to business as usual. This will hinder a sustained recovery of the world economy and open the door for new financial crises. Thus, the rethinking of policies and reshaping the financial and monetary system remain an urgent task. The Report makes concrete proposals on how, and in which priority areas, to advance with the strengthening regulation of the financial sector and commodity markets, reform of the international monetary system, and the reorientation of fiscal policy.