Wise Decision Making In Uncertain Times

Author : Dennis R. Young
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 0 pages
File Size : 42,5 Mb
Release : 2006
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 1595420991

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Wise Decision-making in Uncertain Times by Dennis R. Young Pdf

Demands on nonprofit services have escalated within the context of economic downturns and reduced government funding. In this new environment, nonprofit managers must develop strategies to steer their organizations through profound transformations in programs, operations, fund development, and financing. Moving beyond the core principles set out in Effective Economic Decision-Making-pricing, compensation, investment, outsourcing, economic choices, strategies, and policies-this new guide helps nonprofits survive and thrive amid today's complex economic forces. A team of experts evaluates entrepreneurial approaches, market engagement and competition, managing for performance and integrity, understanding and managing risk, managing fiscal stress, investment strategies, institutional collaboration and transformation, mobilizing for public sector support, and holistic grantmaking. This book highlights the critical challenges of fiscal sustainability for nonprofits, and encourages organizations to take a more expansive approach to financing ... and to achieving their missions.

Author : Claudio Feser,Daniella Laureiro-Martinez,Karolin Frankenberger,Stefan Brusoni
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
Page : 327 pages
File Size : 42,8 Mb
Release : 2024-03-13
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781394238835

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Super Deciders by Claudio Feser,Daniella Laureiro-Martinez,Karolin Frankenberger,Stefan Brusoni Pdf

Dramatically improve the decisions you make every day using insights from the latest neuroscience We make hundreds of decisions daily, from small ones – such as what to wear today and how to drive to work – to big ones – such as the company strategy and whether to launch a restructuring program that may impact thousands of people. In business, studies suggest that company executives spend 40% of their time making decisions and that the effectiveness of their decisions largely drives the results of the companies that they lead. In Super Deciders: The Science and Practice of Making Decisions in Dynamic and Uncertain Times, a team of renown researchers and business advisors deliver an application of the latest advances in neuroscience to effectively making the most difficult decisions, those we make in dynamic environments, in situations of uncertainty when we need to predict outcomes, we’re missing relevant information, time is scarce, and the environment is constantly changing. The book is written in three parts. In the first part, the book offers a practical framework for making effective decisions under uncertainty. In the second part, the book discusses approaches to effectively implement those decisions, thus managing change at every level, from the individual to the organizational. Finally, the book develops suggestions on how leaders can diagnose and improve – in themselves and in the people they lead – the cognitive abilities relevant to decision-making. You’ll also find: An enlightening business narrative detailing the journey of a fictional leader of an international travel operator named Inuk. Six cases that put you into real-life situations of making difficult decisions and that help you assess your decision-making effectiveness. An accessible and fun introduction to the neuroscience of decision-making. Ideal for managers, executives, directors, and other business leaders, Super Deciders is a can’t-miss decision-making playbook that you’ve been waiting for.

Author : Mervyn King,John Kay
Publisher : Hachette UK
Page : 465 pages
File Size : 50,5 Mb
Release : 2020-03-05
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781408712580

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Radical Uncertainty by Mervyn King,John Kay Pdf

'A brilliant new book' Daily Telegraph 'Well written . . . and often entertaining' The Times 'A sparkling analysis' Prospect When uncertainty is all around us, and the facts are not clear, how can we make good decisions? We do not know what the future will hold, particularly in the midst of a crisis, but we must make decisions anyway. We regularly crave certainties which cannot exist and invent knowledge we cannot have, forgetting that humans are successful because we have adapted to an environment that we understand only imperfectly. Throughout history we have developed a variety of ways of coping with the radical uncertainty that defines our lives. This incisive and eye-opening book draws on biography, history, mathematics, economics and philosophy to highlight the most successful - and most short-sighted - methods of dealing with an unknowable future. Ultimately, the authors argue, the prevalent method of our age falls short, giving us a false understanding of our power to make predictions, leading to many of the problems we experience today. Tightly argued, provocative and written with wit and flair, Radical Uncertainty is at once an exploration of the limits of numbers and a celebration of human instinct and wisdom.

Author : Mohammed Abdellaoui,John D. Hey
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
Page : 245 pages
File Size : 41,6 Mb
Release : 2008-08-29
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9783540684367

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Advances in Decision Making Under Risk and Uncertainty by Mohammed Abdellaoui,John D. Hey Pdf

Whether we like it or not we all feel that the world is uncertain. From choosing a new technology to selecting a job, we rarely know in advance what outcome will result from our decisions. Unfortunately, the standard theory of choice under uncertainty developed in the early forties and fifties turns out to be too rigid to take many tricky issues of choice under uncertainty into account. The good news is that we have now moved away from the early descriptively inadequate modeling of behavior. This book brings the reader into contact with the accomplished progress in individual decision making through the most recent contributions to uncertainty modeling and behavioral decision making. It also introduces the reader into the many subtle issues to be resolved for rational choice under uncertainty.

Author : National Research Council,Division on Earth and Life Studies,Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate,Committee on Estimating and Communicating Uncertainty in Weather and Climate Forecasts
Publisher : National Academies Press
Page : 124 pages
File Size : 42,9 Mb
Release : 2006-10-09
Category : Science
ISBN : 9780309180535

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Completing the Forecast by National Research Council,Division on Earth and Life Studies,Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate,Committee on Estimating and Communicating Uncertainty in Weather and Climate Forecasts Pdf

Uncertainty is a fundamental characteristic of weather, seasonal climate, and hydrological prediction, and no forecast is complete without a description of its uncertainty. Effective communication of uncertainty helps people better understand the likelihood of a particular event and improves their ability to make decisions based on the forecast. Nonetheless, for decades, users of these forecasts have been conditioned to receive incomplete information about uncertainty. They have become used to single-valued (deterministic) forecasts (e.g., "the high temperature will be 70 degrees Farenheit 9 days from now") and applied their own experience in determining how much confidence to place in the forecast. Most forecast products from the public and private sectors, including those from the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration's National Weather Service, continue this deterministic legacy. Fortunately, the National Weather Service and others in the prediction community have recognized the need to view uncertainty as a fundamental part of forecasts. By partnering with other segments of the community to understand user needs, generate relevant and rich informational products, and utilize effective communication vehicles, the National Weather Service can take a leading role in the transition to widespread, effective incorporation of uncertainty information into predictions. "Completing the Forecast" makes recommendations to the National Weather Service and the broader prediction community on how to make this transition.

Author : John Kay,Mervyn King
Publisher : W. W. Norton & Company
Page : 407 pages
File Size : 48,5 Mb
Release : 2020-03-17
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781324004783

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Radical Uncertainty: Decision-Making Beyond the Numbers by John Kay,Mervyn King Pdf

Much economic advice is bogus quantification, warn two leading experts in this essential book, now with a preface on COVID-19. Invented numbers offer a false sense of security; we need instead robust narratives that give us the confidence to manage uncertainty. “An elegant and careful guide to thinking about personal and social economics, especially in a time of uncertainty. The timing is impeccable." — Christine Kenneally, New York Times Book Review Some uncertainties are resolvable. The insurance industry’s actuarial tables and the gambler’s roulette wheel both yield to the tools of probability theory. Most situations in life, however, involve a deeper kind of uncertainty, a radical uncertainty for which historical data provide no useful guidance to future outcomes. Radical uncertainty concerns events whose determinants are insufficiently understood for probabilities to be known or forecasting possible. Before President Barack Obama made the fateful decision to send in the Navy Seals, his advisers offered him wildly divergent estimates of the odds that Osama bin Laden would be in the Abbottabad compound. In 2000, no one—not least Steve Jobs—knew what a smartphone was; how could anyone have predicted how many would be sold in 2020? And financial advisers who confidently provide the information required in the standard retirement planning package—what will interest rates, the cost of living, and your state of health be in 2050?—demonstrate only that their advice is worthless. The limits of certainty demonstrate the power of human judgment over artificial intelligence. In most critical decisions there can be no forecasts or probability distributions on which we might sensibly rely. Instead of inventing numbers to fill the gaps in our knowledge, we should adopt business, political, and personal strategies that will be robust to alternative futures and resilient to unpredictable events. Within the security of such a robust and resilient reference narrative, uncertainty can be embraced, because it is the source of creativity, excitement, and profit.

Author : Chris Blake
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 232 pages
File Size : 47,7 Mb
Release : 2008
Category : Decision making
ISBN : 1408250381

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The Art of Decisions by Chris Blake Pdf

Author : Harvard Business Review
Publisher : Harvard Business Press
Page : 152 pages
File Size : 40,8 Mb
Release : 2020-02-11
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781633698161

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HBR Guide to Making Better Decisions by Harvard Business Review Pdf

Learn how to make better; faster decisions. You make decisions every day--from prioritizing your to-do list to choosing which long-term innovation projects to pursue. But most decisions don't have a clear-cut answer, and assessing the alternatives and the risks involved can be overwhelming. You need a smarter approach to making the best choice possible. The HBR Guide to Making Better Decisions provides practical tips and advice to help you generate more-creative ideas, evaluate your alternatives fairly, and make the final call with confidence. You'll learn how to: Overcome the cognitive biases that can skew your thinking Look at problems in new ways Manage the trade-offs between options Balance data with your own judgment React appropriately when you've made a bad choice Communicate your decision--and overcome any resistance Arm yourself with the advice you need to succeed on the job, from a source you trust. Packed with how-to essentials from leading experts, the HBR Guides provide smart answers to your most pressing work challenges.

Author : Mykel J. Kochenderfer
Publisher : MIT Press
Page : 350 pages
File Size : 43,7 Mb
Release : 2015-07-24
Category : Computers
ISBN : 9780262331715

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Decision Making Under Uncertainty by Mykel J. Kochenderfer Pdf

An introduction to decision making under uncertainty from a computational perspective, covering both theory and applications ranging from speech recognition to airborne collision avoidance. Many important problems involve decision making under uncertainty—that is, choosing actions based on often imperfect observations, with unknown outcomes. Designers of automated decision support systems must take into account the various sources of uncertainty while balancing the multiple objectives of the system. This book provides an introduction to the challenges of decision making under uncertainty from a computational perspective. It presents both the theory behind decision making models and algorithms and a collection of example applications that range from speech recognition to aircraft collision avoidance. Focusing on two methods for designing decision agents, planning and reinforcement learning, the book covers probabilistic models, introducing Bayesian networks as a graphical model that captures probabilistic relationships between variables; utility theory as a framework for understanding optimal decision making under uncertainty; Markov decision processes as a method for modeling sequential problems; model uncertainty; state uncertainty; and cooperative decision making involving multiple interacting agents. A series of applications shows how the theoretical concepts can be applied to systems for attribute-based person search, speech applications, collision avoidance, and unmanned aircraft persistent surveillance. Decision Making Under Uncertainty unifies research from different communities using consistent notation, and is accessible to students and researchers across engineering disciplines who have some prior exposure to probability theory and calculus. It can be used as a text for advanced undergraduate and graduate students in fields including computer science, aerospace and electrical engineering, and management science. It will also be a valuable professional reference for researchers in a variety of disciplines.

Author : Michael J. Mauboussin
Publisher : Harvard Business Press
Page : 312 pages
File Size : 54,6 Mb
Release : 2012
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781422184233

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The Success Equation by Michael J. Mauboussin Pdf

In this provocative book, Michael Mauboussin offers the structure needed to analyze the relative importance of skill and luck, offering concrete suggestions for making these insights work to your advantage by making better decisions.

Author : Jay Grusin,Steve Lindo
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 128 pages
File Size : 54,7 Mb
Release : 2021-06
Category : Electronic
ISBN : 1737301903

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Intelligent Analysis by Jay Grusin,Steve Lindo Pdf

Making good decisions involving high stakes and uncertainty requires a significantly different mindset from an organization's default decision-making process, which is typically dictated by culture, hierarchy, personalities, data, and haste. The methods described in this book, honed over decades by the US Intelligence Services, emphasize discipline, objectivity, diversity, reason, and transparency. Most importantly, they don't interfere with the way your organization makes its high-stakes decisions. Instead, they add a protective layer of analytics that either validates a good decision, or exposes the flaws which could lead to catastrophic consequences. Regardless of your organization's risk tolerance, these methods will show you where a high-stakes decision you have to make lies on the uncertainty spectrum and what, if any, actions you can take to nudge the needle to the left.

Author : Itzhak Gilboa
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
Page : 216 pages
File Size : 44,7 Mb
Release : 2009-03-16
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9780521517324

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Theory of Decision Under Uncertainty by Itzhak Gilboa Pdf

This book describes the classical axiomatic theories of decision under uncertainty, as well as critiques thereof and alternative theories. It focuses on the meaning of probability, discussing some definitions and surveying their scope of applicability. The behavioral definition of subjective probability serves as a way to present the classical theories, culminating in Savage's theorem. The limitations of this result as a definition of probability lead to two directions - first, similar behavioral definitions of more general theories, such as non-additive probabilities and multiple priors, and second, cognitive derivations based on case-based techniques.

Author : Richard V. Reeves,Isabel V. Sawhill
Publisher : Brookings Institution Press
Page : 51 pages
File Size : 50,8 Mb
Release : 2020-10-06
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9780815739135

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A New Contract with the Middle Class by Richard V. Reeves,Isabel V. Sawhill Pdf

A better future for the middle class is no longer an aspiration. It is a necessity. The disintegration of the American Dream is more visible than ever before. The understanding—the contract—that existed between individuals willing to work and contribute and a society willing to support those individuals when they needed it is falling apart. Now is the time to draft a new contract with America's middle class. One that rewards work and service, improves upward mobility, and reduces inequality. In A New Contract with the Middle Class Brookings senior fellows Isabel Sawhill and Richard Reeves outline the foundations of what that new contract should be, based on discussions they had across the country with middle-class Americans. Sawhill and Reeves' recommendations provide solutions to issues that came up time and time again in these conversations: money, time, relationships, health, and respect. Some of the bold recommendations included in A New Contract with the Middle Class: • Eliminate virtually all income taxes paid by the middle class. • Raise the minimum wage and subsidize wages below the median with a worker tax credit. • Offer scholarships for those who undertake at least a year of national service. • Ensure four weeks of paid leave per year. • Align school and working hours and boost child care to help working parents. America is only as strong as the American middle-class. A New Contract with the Middle Class proposes a new way forward.

Author : Peter Verhezen
Publisher : World Scientific
Page : 398 pages
File Size : 54,7 Mb
Release : 2023-03-07
Category : Computers
ISBN : 9789811268076

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Making Wise Decisions In A Smart World: Responsible Leadership In An Era Of Artificial Intelligence (Student Edition) by Peter Verhezen Pdf

Good and smart decisions should be distinguished from wise decision-making — especially in the age of artificial intelligence (AI) where algorithms are increasingly used to automate business processes or to augment the accuracy and speed of decisions. This book argues why specific forms of intelligence as well as consciousness and enhanced conscience are crucial to make wise decisions — with consciousness to be clearly distinguished from intelligence. It also addresses why machine learning and smart computers (AI) are plausibly able to make 'smart' (and thus to a certain extent 'intelligent') decisions but definitely unable to help us to become wiser. In essence, optimizing a desired output in a business context will require a balanced approach with cognitive awareness and ethical reflection — synthesizing intuitive and algorithmic thinking — encompassing short-term profit and longer-term envisioning, and aiming to optimize created and captured value for shareholders while taking the concerns of those who have a real stake in the organization seriously. If business is about creating and sharing value in a future that is both 'digital' and 'relational', then innovative technologies like AI will play an increasingly important role. Consequently, mindful executives and their responsible boards therefore need to acknowledge the limitations of AI in business — especially when the uncertain future is estimated to be rather volatile or ambiguous than stable.

Author : G. E. Shockley
Publisher : Edward Elgar Publishing
Page : 265 pages
File Size : 48,9 Mb
Release : 2009-01-01
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781848445154

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Non-market Entrepreneurship by G. E. Shockley Pdf

Non-market entrepreneurship' consists of all forms of entrepreneurship not being undertaken solely for purposes of profit maximization or commercialization. This work builds a theoretical edifice within the field of entrepreneurship and helps to establish and delineate the contours of the research field of non-market entrepreneurship.