Assessing Imf Lending A Model Of Sample Selection

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Assessing IMF Lending: a Model of Sample Selection

Nicolas Mäder,Jean-Guillaume Poulain,Julien Reynaud
Assessing IMF Lending a Model of Sample Selection Book PDF

Author : Nicolas Mäder,Jean-Guillaume Poulain,Julien Reynaud
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 23 pages
File Size : 54,6 Mb
Release : 2019-07-19
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781498324618

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Assessing IMF Lending: a Model of Sample Selection by Nicolas Mäder,Jean-Guillaume Poulain,Julien Reynaud Pdf

Extending previous work on the determinants of IMF lending in an interconnected world, we introduce a model of sample selection in which both selection and size dimensions of individual IMF arrangements are presented within a unified econometric framework. We allow for unobserved heterogeneity to create an additional channel for sample selection at the country level. The results suggest that higher external financing needs, larger exchange rate depreciation, lower GDP growth, as well as deteriorated global financial conditions, are associated with larger individual IMF arrangement sizes. Using the estimated parameters, Monte Carlo simulation of a wide spectrum of global shock scenarios suggest that the distribution of potential aggregate IMF lending exhibits a substantial right tail. Our approach may provide an insightful input to broader policy discussions on the adequacy of the IMF resources.

Predicting IMF-Supported Programs: A Machine Learning Approach

Tsendsuren Batsuuri,Shan He,Ruofei Hu,Jonathan Leslie,Flora Lutz
Predicting IMF Supported Programs A Machine Learning Approach Book PDF

Author : Tsendsuren Batsuuri,Shan He,Ruofei Hu,Jonathan Leslie,Flora Lutz
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 48 pages
File Size : 51,9 Mb
Release : 2024-03-08
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9798400269363

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Predicting IMF-Supported Programs: A Machine Learning Approach by Tsendsuren Batsuuri,Shan He,Ruofei Hu,Jonathan Leslie,Flora Lutz Pdf

This study applies state-of-the-art machine learning (ML) techniques to forecast IMF-supported programs, analyzes the ML prediction results relative to traditional econometric approaches, explores non-linear relationships among predictors indicative of IMF-supported programs, and evaluates model robustness with regard to different feature sets and time periods. ML models consistently outperform traditional methods in out-of-sample prediction of new IMF-supported arrangements with key predictors that align well with the literature and show consensus across different algorithms. The analysis underscores the importance of incorporating a variety of external, fiscal, real, and financial features as well as institutional factors like membership in regional financing arrangements. The findings also highlight the varying influence of data processing choices such as feature selection, sampling techniques, and missing data imputation on the performance of different ML models and therefore indicate the usefulness of a flexible, algorithm-tailored approach. Additionally, the results reveal that models that are most effective in near and medium-term predictions may tend to underperform over the long term, thus illustrating the need for regular updates or more stable – albeit potentially near-term suboptimal – models when frequent updates are impractical.

The External Balance Assessment (EBA) Methodology

Mr.Steven Phillips,Mr.Luis Catão,Mr.Luca Antonio Ricci,Mr.Rudolfs Bems,Ms.Mitali Das,Mr.Julian Di Giovanni,Ms.Filiz Unsal,Marola Castillo,Jungjin Lee,Jair Rodriguez,Mr.Mauricio Vargas
The External Balance Assessment EBA Methodology Book PDF

Author : Mr.Steven Phillips,Mr.Luis Catão,Mr.Luca Antonio Ricci,Mr.Rudolfs Bems,Ms.Mitali Das,Mr.Julian Di Giovanni,Ms.Filiz Unsal,Marola Castillo,Jungjin Lee,Jair Rodriguez,Mr.Mauricio Vargas
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 68 pages
File Size : 55,5 Mb
Release : 2014-01-13
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781484346785

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The External Balance Assessment (EBA) Methodology by Mr.Steven Phillips,Mr.Luis Catão,Mr.Luca Antonio Ricci,Mr.Rudolfs Bems,Ms.Mitali Das,Mr.Julian Di Giovanni,Ms.Filiz Unsal,Marola Castillo,Jungjin Lee,Jair Rodriguez,Mr.Mauricio Vargas Pdf

The External Balance Assessment (EBA) methodology has been developed by the IMF’s Research Department as a successor to the CGER methodology for assessing current accounts and exchange rates in a multilaterally consistent manner. Compared to other approaches, EBA emphasizes distinguishing between the positive empirical analysis and the normative assessment of current accounts and exchange rates, and highlights the roles of policies and policy distortions. This paper provides a comprehensive description and discussion of the 2013 version (“2.0”) of the EBA methodology, including areas for its further development.

IMF Conditionality

John Williamson,Institute for International Economics (U.S.)
IMF Conditionality Book PDF

Author : John Williamson,Institute for International Economics (U.S.)
Publisher : MIT Press (MA)
Page : 708 pages
File Size : 49,9 Mb
Release : 1983
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : STANFORD:36105037510661

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IMF Conditionality by John Williamson,Institute for International Economics (U.S.) Pdf

The twenty-one contributions in this book assess the controversy surrounding the Fund and provide judgments about the criteria for Fund lending which should help readers understand and analyze both its ongoing role in smoothing adjustment to international payments imbalances and its currently critical position in responding to the debt crisis.

FinTech in Financial Inclusion: Machine Learning Applications in Assessing Credit Risk

Majid Bazarbash
FinTech in Financial Inclusion Machine Learning Applications in Assessing Credit Risk Book PDF

Author : Majid Bazarbash
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 34 pages
File Size : 54,9 Mb
Release : 2019-05-17
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781498316033

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FinTech in Financial Inclusion: Machine Learning Applications in Assessing Credit Risk by Majid Bazarbash Pdf

Recent advances in digital technology and big data have allowed FinTech (financial technology) lending to emerge as a potentially promising solution to reduce the cost of credit and increase financial inclusion. However, machine learning (ML) methods that lie at the heart of FinTech credit have remained largely a black box for the nontechnical audience. This paper contributes to the literature by discussing potential strengths and weaknesses of ML-based credit assessment through (1) presenting core ideas and the most common techniques in ML for the nontechnical audience; and (2) discussing the fundamental challenges in credit risk analysis. FinTech credit has the potential to enhance financial inclusion and outperform traditional credit scoring by (1) leveraging nontraditional data sources to improve the assessment of the borrower’s track record; (2) appraising collateral value; (3) forecasting income prospects; and (4) predicting changes in general conditions. However, because of the central role of data in ML-based analysis, data relevance should be ensured, especially in situations when a deep structural change occurs, when borrowers could counterfeit certain indicators, and when agency problems arising from information asymmetry could not be resolved. To avoid digital financial exclusion and redlining, variables that trigger discrimination should not be used to assess credit rating.

Canada

International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
Canada Book PDF

Author : International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 85 pages
File Size : 47,8 Mb
Release : 2019-06-24
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781498321112

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Canada by International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department Pdf

This Financial System Stability Assessment paper discusses that Canada has enjoyed favorable macroeconomic outcomes over the past decades, and its vibrant financial system continues to grow robustly. However, macrofinancial vulnerabilities—notably, elevated household debt and housing market imbalances—remain substantial, posing financial stability concerns. Various parts of the financial system are directly exposed to the housing market and/or linked through housing finance. The financial system would be able to manage severe macrofinancial shocks. Major deposit-taking institutions would remain resilient, but mortgage insurers would need additional capital in a severe adverse scenario. Housing finance is broadly resilient, notwithstanding some weaknesses in the small non-prime mortgage lending segment. Although banks’ overall capital buffers are adequate, additional required capital for mortgage exposures, along with measures to increase risk-based differentiation in mortgage pricing, would be desirable. This would help ensure adequate through-the cycle buffers, improve mortgage risk-pricing, and limit procyclical effects induced by housing market corrections.

IMF Lending and Banking Crises

Luca Papi,Andrea Presbitero,Alberto Zazzaro
IMF Lending and Banking Crises Book PDF

Author : Luca Papi,Andrea Presbitero,Alberto Zazzaro
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 56 pages
File Size : 55,9 Mb
Release : 2015-01-26
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781484308691

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IMF Lending and Banking Crises by Luca Papi,Andrea Presbitero,Alberto Zazzaro Pdf

This paper looks at the effects of International Monetary Fund (IMF) lending programs on banking crises in a large sample of developing countries, over the period 1970-2010. The endogeneity of the IMF intervention is addressed by adopting an instrumental variable strategy and a propensity score matching estimator. Controlling for the standard determinants of banking crises, our results indicate that countries participating in IMF-supported lending programs are significantly less likely to experience a future banking crisis than nonborrowing countries. We also provide evidence suggesting that compliance with conditionality and loan size matter.

Ireland

International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
Ireland Book PDF

Author : International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 66 pages
File Size : 44,7 Mb
Release : 2022-07-07
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9798400213564

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Ireland by International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department Pdf

Ireland has considerably strengthened financial sector regulation and supervision since the 2016 FSAP, aided by the ECB/SSM, and is working with European and international regulators to strengthen oversight of the large market-based finance (MBF) sector. This strengthening is evidenced by a successful navigation through the challenges of Brexit and the pandemic. Despite global headwinds, Ireland is exiting the pandemic with strong economic growth and a highly capitalized and liquid banking system. The financial system has grown rapidly and in complexity, especially after Brexit, and Ireland has become a European base for large financial groups. The MBF sector has grown to the second largest in Europe, with global interlinkages.

Does conditionality in IMF-supported programs promote revenue reform?

Ernesto Crivelli,Mr.Sanjeev Gupta
Does conditionality in IMF supported programs promote revenue reform Book PDF

Author : Ernesto Crivelli,Mr.Sanjeev Gupta
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 32 pages
File Size : 41,6 Mb
Release : 2014-11-19
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781484380048

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Does conditionality in IMF-supported programs promote revenue reform? by Ernesto Crivelli,Mr.Sanjeev Gupta Pdf

This paper studies whether revenue conditionality in Fund-supported programs had any impact on the revenue performance of 126 low- and middle-income countries during 1993-2013. The results indicate that such conditionality had a positive impact on tax revenue, with strongest improvement felt on taxes on goods and services, including the VAT. Revenue conditionality matters more for low-income countries, particularly those where revenue ratios are below the group average. Moreover, revenue conditionality appears to be more effective when targeted to a specific tax. These results hold after controlling for potential endogeneity, sample selection bias, and when revenues are adjusted for economic cycle.

Repeated Use of IMF-Supported Programs: Determinants and Forecasting

Martin Iseringhausen,Ms.Mwanza Nkusu,Wellian Wiranto
Repeated Use of IMF Supported Programs Determinants and Forecasting Book PDF

Author : Martin Iseringhausen,Ms.Mwanza Nkusu,Wellian Wiranto
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 48 pages
File Size : 44,8 Mb
Release : 2019-11-08
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781513520049

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Repeated Use of IMF-Supported Programs: Determinants and Forecasting by Martin Iseringhausen,Ms.Mwanza Nkusu,Wellian Wiranto Pdf

This paper studies the determinants of repeated use of Fund-supported programs in a large sample covering virtually all General Resources Account (GRA) arrangements that were approved between 1952 and 2012. Generally, the revolving nature of the IMF’s resources calls for the temporary sup-port of member countries to address balance of payments problems while repeated use has often been viewed as program failure. First, using probit models we show that a small number of country-specific variables such as growth, the current account balance, the international reserves position, and the institutional framework play a significant role in explaining repeated use. Second, we discuss the role of IMF-specific and program-specific variables and find evidence that a country’s track record with the Fund is a good predictor of repeated use. Finally, we conduct an out-of-sample forecasting exer-cise. While our approach has predictive power for repeated use, exact forecasting remains challenging. From a policy perspective, the results could prove useful to assess the risk IMF programs pose to the revolving nature of the Fund’s financial resources.

The Impact of Bailouts on the Probability of Sovereign Debt Crises: Evidence from IMF-Supported Programs

Hippolyte W. Balima,Mr.Amadou N Sy
The Impact of Bailouts on the Probability of Sovereign Debt Crises Evidence from IMF Supported Programs Book PDF

Author : Hippolyte W. Balima,Mr.Amadou N Sy
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 38 pages
File Size : 41,7 Mb
Release : 2019-01-11
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781484393413

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The Impact of Bailouts on the Probability of Sovereign Debt Crises: Evidence from IMF-Supported Programs by Hippolyte W. Balima,Mr.Amadou N Sy Pdf

This paper studies the role of IMF-supported programs in mitigating the likelihood of subsequent sovereign defaults in borrowing countries. Using a panel of 106 developing countries from 1970 to 2016 and an entropy balancing methodology, we find that IMF-supported programs significantly reduce the likelihood of subsequent sovereign defaults. This finding is robust to different specifications of the entropy balancing and alternative identification strategies. Our results suggest that a country that signs a program with the IMF, typically experiences a slight improvement in its sovereign credit rating and a decrease in both government debt-to-GDP and fiscal deficit-to-GDP.

Assessing Country Risk

Mr.Ashvin Ahuja,Kevin Wiseman,Mr.Murtaza H Syed
Assessing Country Risk Book PDF

Author : Mr.Ashvin Ahuja,Kevin Wiseman,Mr.Murtaza H Syed
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 28 pages
File Size : 40,9 Mb
Release : 2017-06-01
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781484302569

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Assessing Country Risk by Mr.Ashvin Ahuja,Kevin Wiseman,Mr.Murtaza H Syed Pdf

Assessing country risk is a core component of surveillance at the IMF. It is conducted through a comprehensive architecture, covering both bilateral and multilateral dimensions. This note describes some of the approaches used internally by Fund staff to examine a wide array of systemic risks across advanced, emerging, and low-income economies. It provides a high-level view of the theory and methodologies employed, with an on-line companion guide providing more technical details of implementation. The guide will be updated as Fund staff’s methodologies for assessing country risk continue to evolve with experience and feedback. While the results of these approaches are not published by the IMF for market sensitivity reasons, they inform risk assessments featured in bilateral surveillance as well as in the IMF’s flagship publications on global surveillance.

The Politics of IMF Lending

M. Breen
The Politics of IMF Lending Book PDF

Author : M. Breen
Publisher : Springer
Page : 146 pages
File Size : 43,6 Mb
Release : 2013-08-15
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 9781137263810

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The Politics of IMF Lending by M. Breen Pdf

As national governments continue to disagree over how to respond to the aftermath of the global financial crisis, two of the few areas of consensus were the decisions to increase the IMF's capacity to respond and remove the policies designed to limit the use of its resources. Why was this massive increase in the size of the IMF, accompanied by the removal of policies designed to limit moral hazard, such an easy point of consensus? Michael Breen looks at the hidden politics behind IMF lending and proposes a new theory based on shareholder control. To test this theory, he combines statistical analysis with a sweeping account of IMF lending and conditionality during two global crises; the European sovereign debt crisis and the Asian financial crisis.

Fiscal Politics

Vitor Gaspar,Mr.Sanjeev Gupta,Mr.Carlos Mulas-Granados
Fiscal Politics Book PDF

Author : Vitor Gaspar,Mr.Sanjeev Gupta,Mr.Carlos Mulas-Granados
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 548 pages
File Size : 42,7 Mb
Release : 2017-04-07
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781475547900

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Fiscal Politics by Vitor Gaspar,Mr.Sanjeev Gupta,Mr.Carlos Mulas-Granados Pdf

Two main themes of the book are that (1) politics can distort optimal fiscal policy through elections and through political fragmentation, and (2) rules and institutions can attenuate the negative effects of this dynamic. The book has three parts: part 1 (9 chapters) outlines the problems; part 2 (6 chapters) outlines how institutions and fiscal rules can offer solutions; and part 3 (4 chapters) discusses how multilevel governance frameworks can help.

IMF Staff Papers, Volume 55, No. 1

International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
IMF Staff Papers Volume 55 No 1 Book PDF

Author : International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 220 pages
File Size : 41,7 Mb
Release : 2008-06-18
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781589067226

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IMF Staff Papers, Volume 55, No. 1 by International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. Pdf

In this issue, a team of economists look at approaches to modeling the use of IMF resources in order to gauge whether the recent decline in credit outstanding is a temporary or permanent phenomenon. Era Dabla-Norris and Gabriela Inchauste examine what drives the growth of firms, with a focus on informality and regulations. Evan Tanner and Issouf Samake use a vector autoregression approach to examine the probabilistic sustainability of public debt in Brazil. Mexico, and Turkey. And Rachel Glennerster and Yongseok Shin ask whether transparency pays?that is, does the frequency and accuracy of macroeconomic information released to the public lead to lower borrowing costs in sovereign debt markets?