Assessing The Tradecraft Of Intelligence Analysis

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Assessing the Tradecraft of Intelligence Analysis

Gregory F. Treverton,Claybourne Bryan Gabbard
Assessing the Tradecraft of Intelligence Analysis Book PDF

Author : Gregory F. Treverton,Claybourne Bryan Gabbard
Publisher : Rand Corporation
Page : 75 pages
File Size : 49,6 Mb
Release : 2008
Category : History
ISBN : 9780833039583

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Assessing the Tradecraft of Intelligence Analysis by Gregory F. Treverton,Claybourne Bryan Gabbard Pdf

This report assesses the tradecraft of intelligence analysis across the main U.S. intelligence agencies, such as the Central Intelligence Agency and the National Security Agency, and recommends improvements. The report makes a number of recommendations for improving analysis for a world of threats very different from that of the Cold War. It focuses on the two essentials of analysis-first, people; second, the tools they have available. The December 2004 intelligence reform legislation set in motion initiatives that move in the right direction. The creation of a Deputy Director of National Intelligence for Analysis will provide a real hub for developing tradecraft and tools and for framing critical tradeoffs. The establishment of a National Intelligence University will provide a focal point for training in analysis. The creation of a National Counterterrorism Center will shift intelligence analysis toward problems or issues, not agencies or sources. The building of a Long Term Analysis Unit at the National Intelligence Council can lead away from the prevailing dominance of current intelligence. And the formation of an Open Source Center can create a seed bed for making more creative use of open-source materials. These specific initiatives are promising but they are just the beginnings. For all the language about the importance of intelligence analysis, data-sharing, fusion, and the like, the national and Intelligence Community leadership today devalues intelligence analysis. A fundamental change is also needed in attitudes and existing organizational cultures.

Intelligence Analysis Fundamentals

Godfrey Garner,Patrick McGlynn
Intelligence Analysis Fundamentals Book PDF

Author : Godfrey Garner,Patrick McGlynn
Publisher : CRC Press
Page : 301 pages
File Size : 46,5 Mb
Release : 2018-08-06
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781351249331

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Intelligence Analysis Fundamentals by Godfrey Garner,Patrick McGlynn Pdf

There are a limited number of intelligence analysis books available on the market. Intelligence Analysis Fundamentals is an introductory, accessible text for college level undergraduate and graduate level courses. While the principles outlined in the book largely follow military intelligence terminology and practice, concepts are presented to correlate with intelligence gathering and analysis performed in law enforcement, homeland security, and corporate and business security roles. Most of the existing texts on intelligence gathering and analysis focus on specific types of intelligence such as ‘target centric’ intelligence, and many of these, detail information from a position of prior knowledge. In other words, they are most valuable to the consumer who has a working-level knowledge of the subject. The book is general enough in nature that a lay student—interested in pursuing a career in intelligence, Homeland Security, or other related areas of law enforcement—will benefit from it. No prior knowledge of intelligence analysis, functions, or operations is assumed. Chapters illustrate methods and techniques that, over the years, have consistently demonstrate results, superior to those achieved with other means. Chapters describe such analytical methods that are most widely used in the intelligence community and serve as recognized standards and benchmarks in the practice of intelligence analysis. All techniques have been selected for inclusion for their specific application to homeland security, criminal investigations, and intelligence operations. Uses numerous hands-on activities—that can easily be modified by instructors to be more or less challenging depending on the course level—to reinforce concepts As current and active members of the intelligence community, the authors draw on their decades of experience in intelligence to offer real-world examples to illustrate concepts All methodologies reflect the latest trends in the intelligence communities assessment, analysis, and reporting processes with all presented being open source, non-classified information As such, the non-sensitive information presented is appropriate—and methods applicable—for use for education and training overseas and internationally Military-style collection and analysis methods are the primary ones presented, but all are directly correlated intelligence to current concepts, functions and practices within Homeland Security and the law communities Covers the counterterrorism environment where joint operations and investigative efforts combine military, private sector, and law enforcement action and information sharing The book will be a welcome addition to the body of literature available and a widely used reference for professionals and students alike.

A Tradecraft Primer: Structured Analytic Techniques for Improving Intelligence Analysis

Center for the Study of Intelligence
A Tradecraft Primer Structured Analytic Techniques for Improving Intelligence Analysis Book PDF

Author : Center for the Study of Intelligence
Publisher : Lulu.com
Page : 48 pages
File Size : 46,8 Mb
Release : 2012-05-28
Category : Electronic
ISBN : 9781105810886

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A Tradecraft Primer: Structured Analytic Techniques for Improving Intelligence Analysis by Center for the Study of Intelligence Pdf

This primer highlights structured analytic techniques-some widely used in the private sector and academia, some unique to the intelligence profession. It is not a comprehensive overview of how intelligence officers conduct analysis. Rather, the primer highlights how structured analytic techniques can help one challenge judgments, identify mental mindsets, stimulate creativity, and manage uncertainty. In short, incorporating regular use of techniques such as these can enable one to structure thinking for wrestling with difficult questions. Originally published by the CIA in color. Previously available online only as an e-file.

Intelligence Analysis and Assessment

David Charters,Stuart Farson,Glenn P. Hastedt
Intelligence Analysis and Assessment Book PDF

Author : David Charters,Stuart Farson,Glenn P. Hastedt
Publisher : Routledge
Page : 240 pages
File Size : 48,8 Mb
Release : 2013-11-05
Category : History
ISBN : 9781135212452

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Intelligence Analysis and Assessment by David Charters,Stuart Farson,Glenn P. Hastedt Pdf

These essays cover: assessment systems now in place in Britain, the USA, Germany and Australia; the bureaucratic dynamics of analysis and assessment; the changing ground in intelligence; and the impact of new technologies and modes of communication on intelligence gathering and analysis.

A Tradecraft Primer

U. S. Government
A Tradecraft Primer Book PDF

Author : U. S. Government
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 46 pages
File Size : 44,8 Mb
Release : 2009-03-02
Category : Electronic
ISBN : 1466220279

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A Tradecraft Primer by U. S. Government Pdf

Using the analytic techniques contained in this primer will assist analysts in dealing with the perennial problems of intelligence: the complexity of international developments, incomplete and ambiguous information, and the inherent limitations of the human mind. Understanding the intentions and capabilities of adversaries and other foreign actors is challenging, especially when either or both are concealed. Moreover, transnational threats today pose even greater complexity, in that they involve multiple actors-including nonstate entities-that can adapt and transform themselves faster than those who seek to monitor and contain them. Finally, globalization has increased the diversity of outcomes when complex, interactive systems such as financial flows, regional economies or the international system as a whole are in flux.The first hurdle for analysts is identifying the relevant and diagnostic information from the increasing volume of ambiguous and contradictory data that is acquired through open source and clandestine means. Analysts must also pierce the shroud of secrecy-and sometimes deception-that state and nonstate actors use to mislead. A systematic approach that considers a range of alternative explanations and outcomes offers one way to ensure that analysts do not dismiss potentially relevant hypotheses and supporting information resulting in missed opportunities to warn.Cognitive and perceptual biases in human perception and judgment are another important reason for analysts to consider alternatives. As Richards Heuer and others have argued, all individuals assimilate and evaluate information through the medium of "mental models" (sometimes also called "frames" or "mind-sets"). These are experience-based constructs of assumptions and expectations both about the world in general and more specific domains. These constructs strongly influence what information analysts will accept-that is, data that are in accordance with analysts' unconscious mental models are more likely to be perceived and remembered than information that is at odds with them. Mental models are critical to allowing individuals to process what otherwise would be an incomprehensible volume of information. Yet, they can cause analysts to overlook, reject, or forget important incoming or missing information that is not in accord with their assumptions and expectations. Seasoned analysts may be more susceptible to these mind-set problems as a result of their expertise and past success in using time-tested mental models. The key risks of mind-sets are that: analysts perceive what they expect to perceive; once formed, they are resistant to change; new information is assimilated, sometimes erroneously, into existing mental models; and conflicting information is often dismissed or ignored.

Structured Analytic Techniques for Intelligence Analysis

Richards J. Heuer Jr.
Structured Analytic Techniques for Intelligence Analysis Book PDF

Author : Richards J. Heuer Jr.
Publisher : CQ Press
Page : 385 pages
File Size : 50,8 Mb
Release : 2014-05-28
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 9781483312026

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Structured Analytic Techniques for Intelligence Analysis by Richards J. Heuer Jr. Pdf

In this Second Edition of Structured Analytic Techniques for Intelligence Analysis, authors Richards J. Heuer Jr. and Randolph H. Pherson showcase fifty-five structured analytic techniques—five new to this edition—that represent the most current best practices in intelligence, law enforcement, homeland security, and business analysis.

Intelligence Analysis

Robert M. Clark
Intelligence Analysis Book PDF

Author : Robert M. Clark
Publisher : CQ Press
Page : 536 pages
File Size : 55,5 Mb
Release : 2016-05-04
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 9781506316796

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Intelligence Analysis by Robert M. Clark Pdf

Robert M. Clark’s Intelligence Analysis: A Target-Centric Approach demonstrates that a collaborative, target-centric approach leads to sharper and more effective analysis, while better meeting the needs of the customer. Thoroughly revised to reflect the changes in the constantly shifting landscape of intelligence, the Fifth Edition contains a new chapter that frames the nature of intelligence in 21st century conflict. The book also accounts for recent events such as the rise of ISIL and the conflict in Ukraine, and contains new examples throughout. Clark’s practical information and insider perspective create the perfect resource for students and practitioners alike.

Cases in Intelligence Analysis

Sarah Miller Beebe,Randolph H. Pherson
Cases in Intelligence Analysis Book PDF

Author : Sarah Miller Beebe,Randolph H. Pherson
Publisher : CQ Press
Page : 328 pages
File Size : 43,9 Mb
Release : 2014-04-28
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 9781483340142

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Cases in Intelligence Analysis by Sarah Miller Beebe,Randolph H. Pherson Pdf

In their Second Edition of Cases in Intelligence Analysis: Structured Analytic Techniques in Action, accomplished instructors and intelligence practitioners Sarah Miller Beebe and Randolph H. Pherson offer robust, class-tested cases studies of events in foreign intelligence, counterintelligence, terrorism, homeland security, law enforcement, and decision-making support. Designed to give analysts-in-training an opportunity to apply structured analytic techniques and tackle real-life problems, each turnkey case delivers a captivating narrative, discussion questions, recommended readings, and a series of engaging analytic exercises.

Intelligence Analysis

National Research Council,Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education,Board on Behavioral, Cognitive, and Sensory Sciences,Committee on Behavioral and Social Science Research to Improve Intelligence Analysis for National Security
Intelligence Analysis Book PDF

Author : National Research Council,Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education,Board on Behavioral, Cognitive, and Sensory Sciences,Committee on Behavioral and Social Science Research to Improve Intelligence Analysis for National Security
Publisher : National Academies Press
Page : 352 pages
File Size : 53,9 Mb
Release : 2011-04-08
Category : Social Science
ISBN : 9780309176989

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Intelligence Analysis by National Research Council,Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education,Board on Behavioral, Cognitive, and Sensory Sciences,Committee on Behavioral and Social Science Research to Improve Intelligence Analysis for National Security Pdf

The U.S. intelligence community (IC) is a complex human enterprise whose success depends on how well the people in it perform their work. Although often aided by sophisticated technologies, these people ultimately rely on their own intellect to identify, synthesize, and communicate the information on which the nation's security depends. The IC's success depends on having trained, motivated, and thoughtful people working within organizations able to understand, value, and coordinate their capabilities. Intelligence Analysis provides up-to-date scientific guidance for the intelligence community (IC) so that it might improve individual and group judgments, communication between analysts, and analytic processes. The papers in this volume provide the detailed evidentiary base for the National Research Council's report, Intelligence Analysis for Tomorrow: Advances from the Behavioral and Social Sciences. The opening chapter focuses on the structure, missions, operations, and characteristics of the IC while the following 12 papers provide in-depth reviews of key topics in three areas: analytic methods, analysts, and organizations. Informed by the IC's unique missions and constraints, each paper documents the latest advancements of the relevant science and is a stand-alone resource for the IC's leadership and workforce. The collection allows readers to focus on one area of interest (analytic methods, analysts, or organizations) or even one particular aspect of a category. As a collection, the volume provides a broad perspective of the issues involved in making difficult decisions, which is at the heart of intelligence analysis.

Intelligence Analysis for Tomorrow

National Research Council,Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education,Board on Behavioral, Cognitive, and Sensory Sciences,Committee on Behavioral and Social Science Research to Improve Intelligence Analysis for National Security
Intelligence Analysis for Tomorrow Book PDF

Author : National Research Council,Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education,Board on Behavioral, Cognitive, and Sensory Sciences,Committee on Behavioral and Social Science Research to Improve Intelligence Analysis for National Security
Publisher : National Academies Press
Page : 116 pages
File Size : 50,7 Mb
Release : 2011-04-08
Category : Social Science
ISBN : 9780309163422

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Intelligence Analysis for Tomorrow by National Research Council,Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education,Board on Behavioral, Cognitive, and Sensory Sciences,Committee on Behavioral and Social Science Research to Improve Intelligence Analysis for National Security Pdf

The intelligence community (IC) plays an essential role in the national security of the United States. Decision makers rely on IC analyses and predictions to reduce uncertainty and to provide warnings about everything from international diplomatic relations to overseas conflicts. In today's complex and rapidly changing world, it is more important than ever that analytic products be accurate and timely. Recognizing that need, the IC has been actively seeking ways to improve its performance and expand its capabilities. In 2008, the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI) asked the National Research Council (NRC) to establish a committee to synthesize and assess evidence from the behavioral and social sciences relevant to analytic methods and their potential application for the U.S. intelligence community. In Intelligence Analysis for Tomorrow: Advances from the Behavioral and Social Sciences, the NRC offers the Director of National Intelligence (DNI) recommendations to address many of the IC's challenges. Intelligence Analysis for Tomorrow asserts that one of the most important things that the IC can learn from the behavioral and social sciences is how to characterize and evaluate its analytic assumptions, methods, technologies, and management practices. Behavioral and social scientific knowledge can help the IC to understand and improve all phases of the analytic cycle: how to recruit, select, train, and motivate analysts; how to master and deploy the most suitable analytic methods; how to organize the day-to-day work of analysts, as individuals and teams; and how to communicate with its customers. The report makes five broad recommendations which offer practical ways to apply the behavioral and social sciences, which will bring the IC substantial immediate and longer-term benefits with modest costs and minimal disruption.

Assessing Irregular Warfare

Eric V. Larson,Derek Eaton,Brian Nichiporuk,Thomas S. Szayna
Assessing Irregular Warfare Book PDF

Author : Eric V. Larson,Derek Eaton,Brian Nichiporuk,Thomas S. Szayna
Publisher : Rand Corporation
Page : 87 pages
File Size : 42,8 Mb
Release : 2009-01-08
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 9780833047021

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Assessing Irregular Warfare by Eric V. Larson,Derek Eaton,Brian Nichiporuk,Thomas S. Szayna Pdf

Provides an analytic framework and procedure for the intelligence analysis of irregular warfare (IW) environments that can serve as the basis for IW intelligence curriculum development efforts. Defines IW in terms of two stylized situations: population-centric (such as counterinsurgency) and counterterrorism. Provides a detailed review of IW-relevant defense policy and strategy documents and a list of relevant doctrinal publications.

Analyzing Intelligence

Roger Z. George,James B. Bruce
Analyzing Intelligence Book PDF

Author : Roger Z. George,James B. Bruce
Publisher : Georgetown University Press
Page : 353 pages
File Size : 41,8 Mb
Release : 2008-04-09
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 9781589012394

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Analyzing Intelligence by Roger Z. George,James B. Bruce Pdf

Drawing on the individual and collective experience of recognized intelligence experts and scholars in the field, Analyzing Intelligence provides the first comprehensive assessment of the state of intelligence analysis since 9/11. Its in-depth and balanced evaluation of more than fifty years of U.S. analysis includes a critique of why it has under-performed at times. It provides insights regarding the enduring obstacles as well as new challenges of analysis in the post-9/11 world, and suggests innovative ideas for improved analytical methods, training, and structured approaches. The book's six sections present a coherent plan for improving analysis. Early chapters examine how intelligence analysis has evolved since its origins in the mid-20th century, focusing on traditions, culture, successes, and failures. The middle sections examine how analysis supports the most senior national security and military policymakers and strategists, and how analysts must deal with the perennial challenges of collection, politicization, analytical bias, knowledge building and denial and deception. The final sections of the book propose new ways to address enduring issues in warning analysis, methodology (or "analytical tradecraft") and emerging analytic issues like homeland defense. The book suggests new forms of analytic collaboration in a global intelligence environment, and imperatives for the development of a new profession of intelligence analysis. Analyzing Intelligence is written for the national security expert who needs to understand the role of intelligence and its strengths and weaknesses. Practicing and future analysts will also find that its attention to the enduring challenges provides useful lessons-learned to guide their own efforts. The innovations section will provoke senior intelligence managers to consider major changes in the way analysis is currently organized and conducted, and the way that analysts are trained and perform.

Critical Thinking for Strategic Intelligence

Katherine Hibbs Pherson,Randolph H. Pherson
Critical Thinking for Strategic Intelligence Book PDF

Author : Katherine Hibbs Pherson,Randolph H. Pherson
Publisher : CQ Press
Page : 566 pages
File Size : 42,5 Mb
Release : 2020-08-14
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 9781544374277

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Critical Thinking for Strategic Intelligence by Katherine Hibbs Pherson,Randolph H. Pherson Pdf

With Critical Thinking for Strategic Intelligence, Katherine Hibbs Pherson and Randolph H. Pherson have updated their highly regarded, easy-to-use handbook for developing core critical thinking skills and analytic techniques. This indispensable text is framed around 20 key questions that all analysts must ask themselves as they prepare to conduct research, generate hypotheses, evaluate sources of information, draft papers, and ultimately present analysis, including: How do I get started? Where is the information I need? What is my argument? How do I convey my message effectively? The Third Edition includes suggested best practices for dealing with digital disinformation, politicization, and AI. Drawing upon their years of teaching and analytic experience, Pherson and Pherson provide a useful introduction to skills that are essential within the intelligence community.

A Tradecraft Primer: Structured Analytic Techniques for Improving Intelligence Analysis

United Government
A Tradecraft Primer Structured Analytic Techniques for Improving Intelligence Analysis Book PDF

Author : United Government
Publisher : CreateSpace
Page : 46 pages
File Size : 49,5 Mb
Release : 2012-08-01
Category : Electronic
ISBN : 1478361182

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A Tradecraft Primer: Structured Analytic Techniques for Improving Intelligence Analysis by United Government Pdf

This primer highlights structured analytic techniques-some widely used in the private sector and academia, some unique to the intelligence profession. It is not a comprehensive overview of how intelligence officers conduct analysis. Rather, the primer highlights how structured analytic techniques can help one challenge judgments, identify mental mindsets, stimulate creativity, and manage uncertainty. In short, incorporating regular use of techniques such as these can enable one to structure thinking for wrestling with difficult questions.

Psychology of Intelligence Analysis

Richards J Heuer
Psychology of Intelligence Analysis Book PDF

Author : Richards J Heuer
Publisher : Pickle Partners Publishing
Page : 344 pages
File Size : 44,6 Mb
Release : 2020-03-05
Category : History
ISBN : 9781839743054

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Psychology of Intelligence Analysis by Richards J Heuer Pdf

In this seminal work, published by the C.I.A. itself, produced by Intelligence veteran Richards Heuer discusses three pivotal points. First, human minds are ill-equipped ("poorly wired") to cope effectively with both inherent and induced uncertainty. Second, increased knowledge of our inherent biases tends to be of little assistance to the analyst. And lastly, tools and techniques that apply higher levels of critical thinking can substantially improve analysis on complex problems.