Intelligence Analysis For Tomorrow

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Intelligence Analysis for Tomorrow

National Research Council,Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education,Board on Behavioral, Cognitive, and Sensory Sciences,Committee on Behavioral and Social Science Research to Improve Intelligence Analysis for National Security
Intelligence Analysis for Tomorrow Book PDF

Author : National Research Council,Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education,Board on Behavioral, Cognitive, and Sensory Sciences,Committee on Behavioral and Social Science Research to Improve Intelligence Analysis for National Security
Publisher : National Academies Press
Page : 116 pages
File Size : 52,8 Mb
Release : 2011-04-08
Category : Social Science
ISBN : 9780309163422

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Intelligence Analysis for Tomorrow by National Research Council,Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education,Board on Behavioral, Cognitive, and Sensory Sciences,Committee on Behavioral and Social Science Research to Improve Intelligence Analysis for National Security Pdf

The intelligence community (IC) plays an essential role in the national security of the United States. Decision makers rely on IC analyses and predictions to reduce uncertainty and to provide warnings about everything from international diplomatic relations to overseas conflicts. In today's complex and rapidly changing world, it is more important than ever that analytic products be accurate and timely. Recognizing that need, the IC has been actively seeking ways to improve its performance and expand its capabilities. In 2008, the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI) asked the National Research Council (NRC) to establish a committee to synthesize and assess evidence from the behavioral and social sciences relevant to analytic methods and their potential application for the U.S. intelligence community. In Intelligence Analysis for Tomorrow: Advances from the Behavioral and Social Sciences, the NRC offers the Director of National Intelligence (DNI) recommendations to address many of the IC's challenges. Intelligence Analysis for Tomorrow asserts that one of the most important things that the IC can learn from the behavioral and social sciences is how to characterize and evaluate its analytic assumptions, methods, technologies, and management practices. Behavioral and social scientific knowledge can help the IC to understand and improve all phases of the analytic cycle: how to recruit, select, train, and motivate analysts; how to master and deploy the most suitable analytic methods; how to organize the day-to-day work of analysts, as individuals and teams; and how to communicate with its customers. The report makes five broad recommendations which offer practical ways to apply the behavioral and social sciences, which will bring the IC substantial immediate and longer-term benefits with modest costs and minimal disruption.

Intelligence Analysis

National Research Council,Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education,Board on Behavioral, Cognitive, and Sensory Sciences,Committee on Behavioral and Social Science Research to Improve Intelligence Analysis for National Security
Intelligence Analysis Book PDF

Author : National Research Council,Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education,Board on Behavioral, Cognitive, and Sensory Sciences,Committee on Behavioral and Social Science Research to Improve Intelligence Analysis for National Security
Publisher : National Academies Press
Page : 352 pages
File Size : 46,7 Mb
Release : 2011-04-08
Category : Social Science
ISBN : 9780309176989

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Intelligence Analysis by National Research Council,Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education,Board on Behavioral, Cognitive, and Sensory Sciences,Committee on Behavioral and Social Science Research to Improve Intelligence Analysis for National Security Pdf

The U.S. intelligence community (IC) is a complex human enterprise whose success depends on how well the people in it perform their work. Although often aided by sophisticated technologies, these people ultimately rely on their own intellect to identify, synthesize, and communicate the information on which the nation's security depends. The IC's success depends on having trained, motivated, and thoughtful people working within organizations able to understand, value, and coordinate their capabilities. Intelligence Analysis provides up-to-date scientific guidance for the intelligence community (IC) so that it might improve individual and group judgments, communication between analysts, and analytic processes. The papers in this volume provide the detailed evidentiary base for the National Research Council's report, Intelligence Analysis for Tomorrow: Advances from the Behavioral and Social Sciences. The opening chapter focuses on the structure, missions, operations, and characteristics of the IC while the following 12 papers provide in-depth reviews of key topics in three areas: analytic methods, analysts, and organizations. Informed by the IC's unique missions and constraints, each paper documents the latest advancements of the relevant science and is a stand-alone resource for the IC's leadership and workforce. The collection allows readers to focus on one area of interest (analytic methods, analysts, or organizations) or even one particular aspect of a category. As a collection, the volume provides a broad perspective of the issues involved in making difficult decisions, which is at the heart of intelligence analysis.

Intelligence Analysis

National Research Council,Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education,Board on Behavioral, Cognitive, and Sensory Sciences,Committee on Behavioral and Social Science Research to Improve Intelligence Analysis for National Security
Intelligence Analysis Book PDF

Author : National Research Council,Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education,Board on Behavioral, Cognitive, and Sensory Sciences,Committee on Behavioral and Social Science Research to Improve Intelligence Analysis for National Security
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 0 pages
File Size : 52,6 Mb
Release : 2011-03-08
Category : Electronic
ISBN : 0309387205

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Intelligence Analysis by National Research Council,Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education,Board on Behavioral, Cognitive, and Sensory Sciences,Committee on Behavioral and Social Science Research to Improve Intelligence Analysis for National Security Pdf

The U.S. intelligence community (IC) is a complex human enterprise whose success depends on how well the people in it perform their work. Although often aided by sophisticated technologies, these people ultimately rely on their own intellect to identify, synthesize, and communicate the information on which the nation's security depends. The IC's success depends on having trained, motivated, and thoughtful people working within organizations able to understand, value, and coordinate their capabilities. Intelligence Analysis provides up-to-date scientific guidance for the intelligence community (IC) so that it might improve individual and group judgments, communication between analysts, and analytic processes. The papers in this volume provide the detailed evidentiary base for the National Research Council's report, Intelligence Analysis for Tomorrow: Advances from the Behavioral and Social Sciences. The opening chapter focuses on the structure, missions, operations, and characteristics of the IC while the following 12 papers provide in-depth reviews of key topics in three areas: analytic methods, analysts, and organizations. Informed by the IC's unique missions and constraints, each paper documents the latest advancements of the relevant science and is a stand-alone resource for the IC's leadership and workforce. The collection allows readers to focus on one area of interest (analytic methods, analysts, or organizations) or even one particular aspect of a category. As a collection, the volume provides a broad perspective of the issues involved in making difficult decisions, which is at the heart of intelligence analysis.

Intelligence Analysis

Wayne Michael Hall,Gary Citrenbaum
Intelligence Analysis Book PDF

Author : Wayne Michael Hall,Gary Citrenbaum
Publisher : Bloomsbury Publishing USA
Page : 675 pages
File Size : 48,5 Mb
Release : 2009-12-22
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 9798216103363

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Intelligence Analysis by Wayne Michael Hall,Gary Citrenbaum Pdf

This book offers a vast conceptual and theoretical exploration of the ways intelligence analysis must change in order to succeed against today's most dangerous combatants and most complex irregular theatres of conflict. Intelligence Analysis: How to Think in Complex Environments fills a void in the existing literature on contemporary warfare by examining the theoretical and conceptual foundations of effective modern intelligence analysis—the type of analysis needed to support military operations in modern, complex operational environments. This volume is an expert guide for rethinking intelligence analysis and understanding the true nature of the operational environment, adversaries, and most importantly, the populace. Intelligence Analysis proposes substantive improvements in the way the U.S. national security system interprets intelligence, drawing on the groundbreaking work of theorists ranging from Carl von Clauswitz and Sun Tzu to M. Mitchell Waldrop, General David Petraeus, Richards Heuer, Jr., Orson Scott Card, and others. The new ideas presented here will help the nation to amass a formidable, cumulative intelligence power, with distinct advantages over any and all adversaries of the future regardless of the level of war or type of operational environment.

Improving Intelligence Analysis

Stephen Marrin
Improving Intelligence Analysis Book PDF

Author : Stephen Marrin
Publisher : Routledge
Page : 193 pages
File Size : 44,9 Mb
Release : 2012-08-21
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 9781136680472

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Improving Intelligence Analysis by Stephen Marrin Pdf

This book on intelligence analysis written by intelligence expert Dr. Stephen Marrin argues that scholarship can play a valuable role in improving intelligence analysis. Improving intelligence analysis requires bridging the gap between scholarship and practice. Compared to the more established academic disciplines of political science and international relations, intelligence studies scholarship is generally quite relevant to practice. Yet a substantial gap exists nonetheless. Even though there are many intelligence analysts, very few of them are aware of the various writings on intelligence analysis which could help them improve their own processes and products. If the gap between scholarship and practice were to be bridged, practitioners would be able to access and exploit the literature in order to acquire new ways to think about, frame, conceptualize, and improve the analytic process and the resulting product. This volume contributes to the broader discussion regarding mechanisms and methods for improving intelligence analysis processes and products. It synthesizes these articles into a coherent whole, linking them together through common themes, and emphasizes the broader vision of intelligence analysis in the introduction and conclusion chapters. The book will be of great interest to students of intelligence studies, strategic studies, US national security, US foreign policy, security studies and political science in general,as well as professional intelligence analysts and managers.

Competitive Intelligence, Analysis and Strategy

Sheila Wright
Competitive Intelligence Analysis and Strategy Book PDF

Author : Sheila Wright
Publisher : Routledge
Page : 329 pages
File Size : 49,9 Mb
Release : 2014-07-10
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781317980957

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Competitive Intelligence, Analysis and Strategy by Sheila Wright Pdf

The Holy Grail for most organisations is the successful attainment, and retention, of inimitable competitive advantage. This book addresses the question of how to leverage the unique intangible assets of an organisation: its explicit, implicit, acquired and derived knowledge. The refreshingly innovative concept of Intelligence-Based Competitive Advantage© is one which will eclipse the cost-driven and resource-reduction attitudes most prevalent in the first decade of this century. Tomorrow’s organisation will need to derive IBCA© through the expert execution of bespoke competitive intelligence practice, unique analytical processes, pioneering competitive strategy formulation, and timely execution of all three, if they are to succeed. This volume consists of insights from Competitive Intelligence practices at both country and organisational level, Competitive Analysis processes within the firm and within challenging sector and economic environments and Competitive Strategy formulation in profit, non-profit, real and virtual world contexts. It is essential reading for anybody wishing to gain a formal understanding of the practical and intellectual challenges which will face organisations in the future as they strive to achieve strategic foresight and Intelligence-Based Competitive Advantage. This book was originally published as two special issues of the Journal of Strategic Marketing.

Psychology of Intelligence Analysis

Richards J Heuer
Psychology of Intelligence Analysis Book PDF

Author : Richards J Heuer
Publisher : Pickle Partners Publishing
Page : 344 pages
File Size : 54,6 Mb
Release : 2020-03-05
Category : History
ISBN : 9781839743054

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Psychology of Intelligence Analysis by Richards J Heuer Pdf

In this seminal work, published by the C.I.A. itself, produced by Intelligence veteran Richards Heuer discusses three pivotal points. First, human minds are ill-equipped ("poorly wired") to cope effectively with both inherent and induced uncertainty. Second, increased knowledge of our inherent biases tends to be of little assistance to the analyst. And lastly, tools and techniques that apply higher levels of critical thinking can substantially improve analysis on complex problems.

Leading Intelligence Analysis

Bruce E. Pease
Leading Intelligence Analysis Book PDF

Author : Bruce E. Pease
Publisher : CQ Press
Page : 257 pages
File Size : 51,9 Mb
Release : 2019-01-03
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 9781506397146

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Leading Intelligence Analysis by Bruce E. Pease Pdf

Written by an experienced professional who has led Navy Intelligence and CIA analysts in high-stakes situations, Leading Intelligence Analysis: Lessons from the CIA’s Analytic Front Lines introduces the fundamental managerial skills and practical tools needed to lead analysis projects conducted by individuals and teams. Author Bruce Pease provides insights into key questions such as What kind of environment draws out a team’s best work? What brings out their creativity? When does pressure bring out their best insights? When does pressure sap their intellectual energy? and What kind of team builds new knowledge rather than engaging in group-think? This book draws on the author’s perspective from decades of leading intelligence analysts on critical issues, including war in the Middle East, terrorism after 9/11, and nuclear threats.

A Decadal Survey of the Social and Behavioral Sciences

National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine,Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education,Board on Behavioral, Cognitive, and Sensory Sciences,Committee on a Decadal Survey of Social and Behavioral Sciences for Applications to National Security
A Decadal Survey of the Social and Behavioral Sciences Book PDF

Author : National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine,Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education,Board on Behavioral, Cognitive, and Sensory Sciences,Committee on a Decadal Survey of Social and Behavioral Sciences for Applications to National Security
Publisher : National Academies Press
Page : 401 pages
File Size : 41,8 Mb
Release : 2019-07-26
Category : Social Science
ISBN : 9780309487610

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A Decadal Survey of the Social and Behavioral Sciences by National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine,Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education,Board on Behavioral, Cognitive, and Sensory Sciences,Committee on a Decadal Survey of Social and Behavioral Sciences for Applications to National Security Pdf

The primary function of the intelligence analyst is to make sense of information about the world, but the way analysts do that work will look profoundly different a decade from now. Technological changes will bring both new advances in conducting analysis and new risks related to technologically based activities and communications around the world. Because these changes are virtually inevitable, the Intelligence Community will need to make sustained collaboration with researchers in the social and behavioral sciences (SBS) a key priority if it is to adapt to these changes in the most productive ways. A Decadal Survey Of The Social and Behavioral Sciences provides guidance for a 10-year research agenda. This report identifies key opportunities in SBS research for strengthening intelligence analysis and offers ideas for integrating the knowledge and perspectives of researchers from these fields into the planning and design of efforts to support intelligence analysis.

Intelligence Analysis

Robert M. Clark
Intelligence Analysis Book PDF

Author : Robert M. Clark
Publisher : SAGE
Page : 433 pages
File Size : 44,9 Mb
Release : 2012-09-25
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 9781452206127

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Intelligence Analysis by Robert M. Clark Pdf

Robert M. Clark explains that a collaborative, target-centric approach allows for more effective analysis, while better meeting customer needs.

Assessing the Tradecraft of Intelligence Analysis

Gregory F. Treverton,Claybourne Bryan Gabbard
Assessing the Tradecraft of Intelligence Analysis Book PDF

Author : Gregory F. Treverton,Claybourne Bryan Gabbard
Publisher : Rand Corporation
Page : 75 pages
File Size : 45,9 Mb
Release : 2008
Category : History
ISBN : 9780833039583

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Assessing the Tradecraft of Intelligence Analysis by Gregory F. Treverton,Claybourne Bryan Gabbard Pdf

This report assesses the tradecraft of intelligence analysis across the main U.S. intelligence agencies, such as the Central Intelligence Agency and the National Security Agency, and recommends improvements. The report makes a number of recommendations for improving analysis for a world of threats very different from that of the Cold War. It focuses on the two essentials of analysis-first, people; second, the tools they have available. The December 2004 intelligence reform legislation set in motion initiatives that move in the right direction. The creation of a Deputy Director of National Intelligence for Analysis will provide a real hub for developing tradecraft and tools and for framing critical tradeoffs. The establishment of a National Intelligence University will provide a focal point for training in analysis. The creation of a National Counterterrorism Center will shift intelligence analysis toward problems or issues, not agencies or sources. The building of a Long Term Analysis Unit at the National Intelligence Council can lead away from the prevailing dominance of current intelligence. And the formation of an Open Source Center can create a seed bed for making more creative use of open-source materials. These specific initiatives are promising but they are just the beginnings. For all the language about the importance of intelligence analysis, data-sharing, fusion, and the like, the national and Intelligence Community leadership today devalues intelligence analysis. A fundamental change is also needed in attitudes and existing organizational cultures.

Propaganda and Intelligence in the Cold War

Linda Risso
Propaganda and Intelligence in the Cold War Book PDF

Author : Linda Risso
Publisher : Routledge
Page : 369 pages
File Size : 49,7 Mb
Release : 2014-01-10
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 9781317974864

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Propaganda and Intelligence in the Cold War by Linda Risso Pdf

This book offers the first account of the foundation, organisation and activities of the NATO Information Service (NATIS) during the Cold War. During the Cold War, NATIS was pivotal in bringing national delegations together to discuss their security, information and intelligence concerns and, when appropriate or possible, to devise a common response to the ‘Communist threat’. At the same time, NATIS liaised with bodies like the Atlantic Institute and the Bilderberg group in the attempt to promote a coordinated western response. The NATO archive material also shows that NATIS carried out its own information and intelligence activities. Propaganda and Intelligence in the Cold War provides the first sustained study of the history of NATIS throughout the Cold War. Examining the role of NATIS as a forum for the exchange of ideas and techniques about how to develop and run propaganda programmes, this book presents a sophisticated understanding of the extent to which national information agencies collaborated. By focusing on the degree of cooperation on cultural and information activities, this analysis of NATIS also contributes to the history of NATO as a political alliance and reminds us that NATO was – and still is – primarily a political organisation. This book will be of much interest to students of NATO, Cold War studies, intelligence studies, and IR in general.

A Human's Guide to Machine Intelligence

Kartik Hosanagar
A Human s Guide to Machine Intelligence Book PDF

Author : Kartik Hosanagar
Publisher : Penguin
Page : 274 pages
File Size : 48,6 Mb
Release : 2019-03-12
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9780525560890

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A Human's Guide to Machine Intelligence by Kartik Hosanagar Pdf

A Wharton professor and tech entrepreneur examines how algorithms and artificial intelligence are starting to run every aspect of our lives, and how we can shape the way they impact us Through the technology embedded in almost every major tech platform and every web-enabled device, algorithms and the artificial intelligence that underlies them make a staggering number of everyday decisions for us, from what products we buy, to where we decide to eat, to how we consume our news, to whom we date, and how we find a job. We've even delegated life-and-death decisions to algorithms--decisions once made by doctors, pilots, and judges. In his new book, Kartik Hosanagar surveys the brave new world of algorithmic decision-making and reveals the potentially dangerous biases they can give rise to as they increasingly run our lives. He makes the compelling case that we need to arm ourselves with a better, deeper, more nuanced understanding of the phenomenon of algorithmic thinking. And he gives us a route in, pointing out that algorithms often think a lot like their creators--that is, like you and me. Hosanagar draws on his experiences designing algorithms professionally--as well as on history, computer science, and psychology--to explore how algorithms work and why they occasionally go rogue, what drives our trust in them, and the many ramifications of algorithmic decision-making. He examines episodes like Microsoft's chatbot Tay, which was designed to converse on social media like a teenage girl, but instead turned sexist and racist; the fatal accidents of self-driving cars; and even our own common, and often frustrating, experiences on services like Netflix and Amazon. A Human's Guide to Machine Intelligence is an entertaining and provocative look at one of the most important developments of our time and a practical user's guide to this first wave of practical artificial intelligence.

The Organisation of Tomorrow

Mark Van Rijmenam
The Organisation of Tomorrow Book PDF

Author : Mark Van Rijmenam
Publisher : Routledge
Page : 169 pages
File Size : 55,6 Mb
Release : 2019-07-19
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781000007671

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The Organisation of Tomorrow by Mark Van Rijmenam Pdf

The Organisation of Tomorrow presents a new model of doing business and explains how big data analytics, blockchain and artificial intelligence force us to rethink existing business models and develop organisations that will be ready for human-machine interactions. It also asks us to consider the impacts of these emerging information technologies on people and society. Big data analytics empowers consumers and employees. This can result in an open strategy and a better understanding of the changing environment. Blockchain enables peer-to-peer collaboration and trustless interactions governed by cryptography and smart contracts. Meanwhile, artificial intelligence allows for new and different levels of intensity and involvement among human and artificial actors. With that, new modes of organising are emerging: where technology facilitates collaboration between stakeholders; and where human-to-human interactions are increasingly replaced with human-to-machine and even machine-to-machine interactions. This book offers dozens of examples of industry leaders such as Walmart, Telstra, Alibaba, Microsoft and T-Mobile, before presenting the D2 + A2 model – a new model to help organisations datafy their business, distribute their data, analyse it for insights and automate processes and customer touchpoints to be ready for the data-driven and exponentially-changing society that is upon us This book offers governments, professional services, manufacturing, finance, retail and other industries a clear approach for how to develop products and services that are ready for the twenty-first century. It is a must-read for every organisation that wants to remain competitive in our fast-changing world.

Intelligence Analysis

Wayne Michael Hall (Citrenbaum, Gary)
Intelligence Analysis Book PDF

Author : Wayne Michael Hall (Citrenbaum, Gary)
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 0 pages
File Size : 40,9 Mb
Release : 2024-06-18
Category : Electronic
ISBN : 9798400670930

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Intelligence Analysis by Wayne Michael Hall (Citrenbaum, Gary) Pdf

This book offers a vast conceptual and theoretical exploration of the ways intelligence analysis must change in order to succeed against today's most dangerous combatants and most complex irregular theatres of conflict. Intelligence Analysis: How to Think in Complex Environments fills a void in the existing literature on contemporary warfare by examining the theoretical and conceptual foundations of effective modern intelligence analysis--the type of analysis needed to support military operations in modern, complex operational environments. This volume is an expert guide for rethinking intelligence analysis and understanding the true nature of the operational environment, adversaries, and most importantly, the populace. Intelligence Analysis proposes substantive improvements in the way the U.S. national security system interprets intelligence, drawing on the groundbreaking work of theorists ranging from Carl von Clauswitz and Sun Tzu to M. Mitchell Waldrop, General David Petraeus, Richards Heuer, Jr., Orson Scott Card, and others. The new ideas presented here will help the nation to amass a formidable, cumulative intelligence power, with distinct advantages over any and all adversaries of the future regardless of the level of war or type of operational environment.