Assessment Of Outcomes Based On The Use Of Pim Supported Foresight Modeling Work 2012 2018
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Assessment of outcomes based on the use of PIM-supported foresight modeling work, 2012-2018 by Lowder, Sarah K.,Regmi, Anita Pdf
This report presents results of a study to assess the use of foresight modeling tools and outputs produced since 2012 and funded through Flagship 1, Cluster 1.1 of the CGIAR Research Program on Policies, Institutions, and Markets (PIM). The goal of this study is to examine how the tools and outputs of foresight modeling supported by PIM through Flagship 1 (hereafter “PIM-supported foresight modeling”) have been used by stakeholders. The study aims to identify as many uses of and outcomes from the PIM-supported foresight modeling as possible. It is by no means comprehensive, but it does cover usage by a wide range of stakeholders from across the CGIAR system, other international organizations, academia, and national governments.
Proceedings of the 4th Vocational Education International Conference (VEIC 2022) by Adhi Kusumastuti,Samsudin Anis,Achmad Nizar Hidayanto,Sita Nurmasitah,Atika Atika,Delta Apriyani,Taofan Ali Achmadi,Sudiyono Sudiyono Pdf
This is an open access book. The 4th Vocational Education International Conference (VEIC 2022) is an annual and internationally - refereed conference. The main objective of VEIC 2022 is to provide an international platform for researchers, practitioners, stakeholders in the field of vocational education to discuss about the issue and challenges in the field of Technology and Vocational Education. The main theme of VEIC 2022 is Post-pandemic Challenge in Technical and Vocational Education and Training of Higher Education.
Annual report 2021: CGIAR Research Program on Policies, Institutions, and Markets (PIM) by CGIAR Research Program on Policies, Institutions, and Markets (PIM) Pdf
PIM had a productive final year centered on synthesizing findings while continuing to respond to demand on the impacts of COVID-19 and preparing the transition to the new CGIAR portfolio. PIM findings and engagement contributed to Myanmar’s response to COVID-19, South Africa’s policies on resilience to climate change, Tunisia's policies for pastoral development, a reform of Nigeria’s national agricultural research system, Ghana’s fish seed and farm certification system, gender strategies for three agricultural value chains in Honduras, and genome editing guidelines for the agricultural sector in four African countries. PIM research informed policy documents of FAO, IFAD, One CGIAR, the UK Government, the World Bank and the World Food Programme. PIM tools enabled more equitable co-management of 76 protected areas in Peru and informed World Bank social protection projects. Books on food security in Bangladesh and Malawi, trade in Latin America, African agricultural value chains and gender were published. 42 PIM synthesis briefs and notes were issued, summarizing research results in key thematic areas. PIM contributed 181 journal articles, 8 journal issues (on demand driven seed systems, China’s response to COVID-19, agriculture and food security in China under COVID-19, food loss and waste, landscape restoration, multistakeholder fora in forestry and two issues on gender), 15 book chapters and about 500 non-peer-reviewed outputs. 16 PIM webinars were organized. PIM’s contributions to the United Nations Food Systems Summit covered agricultural extension, food system innovations and digital technologies, the future of small farms, the science-policy interface, the cost of ending hunger by 2030, food waste and loss, management of the commons and gender. Building on past PIM investments in economywide modeling tools and social accounting matrices, PIM teams continued to assess the impacts of COVID-19 and policy responses at country level. Lessons learned from PIM country-level analyses on COVID-19’s impacts on food systems, poverty and diets are summarized in a chapter of the IFPRI 2022 book “COVID19 and global food security: Two years later”. A paper in partnership with the CGIAR COVID19 Hub reviewed the literature on agri-food value chains for evidence of fractures and resilience in response to the pandemic. The results of coordinated studies on the impacts of COVID-19 on value chains in different countries were published. Several cross-CGIAR outputs initiated by PIM speak to the fulfillment of PIM’s convening role as an integrating program: the CGIAR Foresight Report and CGIAR foresight website; several outputs produced through the CGIAR Community of Excellence on Seed Systems Development, and the CGIAR book “Advancing gender equality through agricultural and environmental research: Past, present, and future” are examples. Other examples of PIM global public goods produced in 2021 are 27 innovations at various stages of uptake, a cross-cutting effort to distill PIM lessons on migration; new or updated social accounting matrices for 25 countries; and lessons and tools on stakeholder platforms for natural resource governance. Independent reviews assessed the effectiveness of PIM’s partnerships and the use by partners of PIM’s work on economywide modelling, agricultural insurance, tenure and governance, and the Ag-Incentives database.
Covid-19 and lockdown policies: A structural simulation model of a bottom-up recession in four countries by Robinson, Sherman,Levy, Stephanie,Hernández, Victor,Davies, Rob,Gabriel, Sherwin,Arndt, Channing,van Seventer, Dirk,Pleitez, Marcelo Pdf
This paper considers different approaches to modelling the economic impact of the Covid-19 pandemic/lockdown shocks. We review different modelling strategies and argue that, given the nature of the bottom-up recession caused by the pandemic/lockdowns, simulation models of the shocks should be based on a social accounting matrix (SAM) that includes both disaggregated sectoral data and the national accounts in a unified framework. SAM-based models have been widely used to analyze the impact of natural disasters, which are comparable to pandemic/lockdown shocks. The pandemic/lockdown shocks occurred rapidly, in weeks or months, not gradually over a year or more. In such a short period, adjustments through smooth changes in wages, prices and production methods are not plausible. Rather, initial adjustments occur through changes in quantities, altering demand and supply of commodities and employment in affected sectors. In this environment, we use a linear SAM-multiplier model that specifies a fixed-coefficient production technology, linear demand system, fixed savings rates, and fixed prices. There are three different kinds of sectoral shocks that are included in the model: (1) changes in demand due to household lockdown, (2) changes in supply due to industry lockdown, and (3) changes in demand due to induced macro shocks. At the detailed industry level, data are provided for all three shocks and the model imposes the largest of the three. We applied the model on a monthly time step for the period March to June 2020 for four countries: US, UK, Mexico, and South Africa. The models closely replicate observed macro results (GDP and employment) for the period. The results provide detailed structural information on the evolution of the different economies month-by-month and provide a framework for forward-looking scenario analysis. We also use the SAM-multiplier model to estimate the macro stimulus impacts of policies to support affected households. The model focuses attention on the structural features of the economy that define the multiplier process (who gets the additional income and what do they do with it) and provides a more nuanced analysis of the stimulus impact of income support programs than can be done with aggregated macro models.
Insect-resistant cowpea in Nigeria: An ex ante economic assessment of a crop improvement initiative by Phillip, Dayo,Nin-Pratt, Alejandro,Zambrano, Patricia,Wood-Sichra, Ulrike,Kato, Edward,Komen, John,Hanson, Hillary,Falck-Zepeda, José Benjamin,Chambers, Judy A. Pdf
Since oil prices’ decline in 2014, agriculture has received renewed interest in Nigeria as a key sector for achieving sustainable growth and generating foreign exchange. One of the identified obstacles to achieving these goals is the need to improve agricultural productivity. Cowpea is one of the priority crops identified for productivity improvement. Currently cowpea yields are below 900 kg/ha, but it has been shown that with the right technology, these yields could potentially double. One of the main biotic constraints for cowpea is the infestation of the insect pod borer (Maruca Vitrata). No conventional variety has been developed to resist this pest, but with the use of biotechnology and the sustained collaboration of national and international partners over many years, there is now a genetically modified pod-borer-resistant (or more generally insect-resistant) cowpea. This paper estimates the potential economic benefits of adopting this new technology and the cost that Nigeria will incur if this adoption is delayed. The analysis is conducted using an economic surplus partial equilibrium model run with the newly developed DREAMpy software, data drawn from the Nigeria General Household Survey 2015–2016, estimations using these data, and other local sources. The estimations show that if the insect-resistant cowpea is planted in 2020, the net present-value benefits for producers and consumers would be around US$350 million, 70 percent of which would be accrued by producers. The distribution of benefits by region show that Sudan-Sahel will accrue the most benefits, given the relative concentration of cowpea in this region and the estimated higher adoption rates and yield changes. Almost half of producers’ total benefit will go to large producers, who represent only 20 percent of all cowpea producers, while small producers, representing half of all cowpea producers, will receive 24 percent of the benefit. Additionally, the analysis shows that a five-year regulatory delay will decrease the estimated benefits by around 35 percent. While Nigeria already has in place a competent biosafety system that will most likely ensure that these regulatory delays will not materialize, these estimations highlight the importance of having an evidence-based, efficient, predictable, and transparent regulatory system to ensure that the expected economic benefits are realized.
Public investment prioritization for Rwanda’s inclusive agricultural transformation: Evidence from rural investment and policy analysis modeling by Aragie, Emerta,Diao, Xinshen,Spielman, David J.,Thurlow, James,Mugabo, Serge,Rosenbach, Gracie,Benimana, Gilberthe Pdf
As Rwanda is expected to return to its rapid growth trajectory following the COVID-19 pandemic, agriculture will continue to play a central role in the structural transformation of the entire economy. To this end, the Government of Rwanda continues to invest in the agricultural sector by building on Strategic Plans for the Transformation of Agriculture (PSTAs) that began in the early 2000s. The challenging question is how to prioritize public expenditures across a broad portfolio of policies and programs. Ambitious plans, whether in the short or long term, require difficult decisions. The prioritization of public investment becomes even more complex as Rwanda’s structural transformation advances and as new investments—beyond the farm—become critically important for the agricultural sector. The structural transformation process itself means that as agriculture becomes more integrated with the rest of the economy, public resource allocations need to address a wider range of issues across the entire food system; these include nutrition-sensitive food production systems, inclusive value chain development, nonfarm rural enterprise development, and climate-resilient sustainable intensification of both crops and livestock. This study provides evidence that is designed to assist the Government of Rwanda in its selection of agricultural policy, investment, and expenditure portfolios that reflect the country’s broad focus on its food system and structural transformation. This process of prioritization will need to incorporate multiple public investments targeting multiple development outcomes and will need to be grounded in the costeffective use of public resources in a largely market-led transformation process. This data-driven and evidence-based approach must critically underpin an informed investment prioritization process that helps achieve ambitious targets in an environment constrained by limited public resources. The study uses the Rural Investment and Policy Analysis (RIAPA) economywide model developed by the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), with contributions from colleagues at the Ministry of Agriculture and Animal Resources (MINAGRI), the Ministry of Finance and Economic Planning (MINECOFIN) and the National Institute of Statistics of Rwanda (NISR). The study draws on data from multiple sources as well as expert insights to inform the application of RIAPA’s Agricultural Investment for Data Analyzer (AIDA) module as a tool to measure the impacts of alternative public expenditure options on multiple development outcomes. Using this integrated modeling framework, the study links agricultural and rural development spending to four specific outcomes: economic growth, job creation, poverty reduction, and diet quality improvement; at the same time, it considers the synergies and tradeoffs associated with the different investment options in the transformation process. The paper first assesses the contribution of public expenditures to agricultural and rural development under the fourth Strategic Plan for Agriculture Transformation (PSTA 4) that extends between 2018 and 2024. These findings are important, given the fact that since the beginning of PSTA 4, the budget allocated to MINAGRI (measured in constant prices) has stagnated. Our results suggest that increased spending on agriculture is well justified and that such spending is essential if the Government of Rwanda is to achieve its long-term development goals.
Informal cross-border trade in Africa: How much? Why? And what impact? by Bouet, Antoine,Pace, Kathryn,Glauber, Joseph W. Pdf
Informal cross-border trade (ICBT) represents a prominent phenomenon in Africa. Several studies suggest that for certain products and countries, the value of informal trade may meet or even exceed the value of formal trade. This paper provides a review of existing efforts to measure informal trade. We list 18 initiatives aimed at measuring ICBT in Africa. The paper also summarizes discussions conducted with many stakeholders in Africa between December 2016 and May 2018 regarding the measurement, the determinants, and the implications of ICBT. The methodologies used to measure ICBT in Africa differ widely, but they do confirm that informal trade in Africa is both sizeable and volatile. Both evidence on the determinants of ICBT and discussions with stakeholders suggest that policies should aim to reduce the existing costs associated with formal trade and provide positive incentives for traders and producers to move into the formal economy in order to avoid the loss of economic potential stemming from informal trade.
Design of a mobile phone-based Artificial Intelligence (AI) application to assess dietary intake and provide nudges to improve healthy eating choices: Formative research in Ghana and Vietnam by Braga, Bianca C.,Aberman, Noora-Lisa,Arrieta, Alejandra,Bannerman, Boateng,Burns, Adam,Folson, Gloria,Huynh, Phuong,Koch, Bastien,McCloskey, Pete,Nguyen, Phuong Hong,Zakariah-Akoto, Sawudatu,Hughes, David,Gelli, Aulo Pdf
Background: Low quality diets are a public health problem affecting individuals of all ages worldwide. Nudging for Good (NFG) is a new research project aimed at developing, validating, and examining the feasibility of using artificial intelligence (AI)-based technology to improve adolescent girls' diets in urban Ghana and Vietnam. Objectives: Provide evidence to support the design of a new mobile phone intervention including: a) identifying the demand for mobile app to improve diets in adolescent girls; b) defining the intervention objectives and activities to be delivered via a mobile app; and c) assessing the potential for nudging functionality to be incorporated in the mobile app. Methods: This study used mixed methods including both literature and nutrition-related app reviews, as well as focus group discussions. A literature review was conducted using PubMed and Google Scholar databases, and intervention studies using technology to improve nutrition outcomes of adolescents were included. Nine focus group discussions (five in Ghana and four in Vietnam) were undertaken with 61 girls to gauge smartphone and internet access and use and to obtain feedback on the prototype of a mobile app. Results: Nine studies met the selection criteria for the literature review, including seven randomized control trials (RCTs) and two systematic reviews. The evidence from the literature on how technology-based nutrition interventions should be conducted and what should be the best outcomes of success was mixed. Most of the 22 apps reviewed required manual entry of dietary information, and recommended diets based on motivation to change body weight. In the focus groups discussions, the adolescents suggested modifications on the prototype of the mobile app we presented, and indicated possibility to regularly take pictures of foods and beverages during meal time. Conclusion: We did not find an app available in either the Ghana or Vietnam markets that could improve dietary quality of adolescents without focusing on weight. Most apps available only had manual features to log food intake, which is time consuming. Moreover, adolescents expressed interest in using a new, modified version of the app we presented. We aim at developing a new mobile phone application based on AI technology that gives personalized and reliable nutrition advice to improve adolescent girls’ diets. However, the literature review was not conclusive on what should be the characteristics of an app and how interventions to measure an app’s impact on dietary quality should be conducted.
POSHAN’s abstract digest on maternal and child nutrition research - Issue 34 by Avula, Rasmi, ed. Pdf
This issue of Abstract Digest comes to you at a time when the global nutrition research community is actively looking for ways to address malnutrition in the changing context of the COVID-19 pandemic. The articles in this issue include a modelling study by Roberton and colleagues on early estimates of the indirect effects of COVID-19 pandemic on maternal and child mortality in low-income and middle-income countries, and comments on it.
Seeds of Contention by Per Pinstrup-Andersen,Ebbe Schiøler Pdf
In recent years the media have reported on the increasing use of genetically modified crops in agriculture. This text focuses attention on the less discussed issues of the potential benefits of genetically modified crops for developing countries.
Assessing the state of the rice milling sector in Nigeria: The role of policy for growth and modernization by Johnson, Michael E.,Masias, Ian Pdf
We use an industry profit maximization model to conduct an ex-post impact assessment on the extent the rice milling sector in Nigeria has grown and improved its performance in producing high quality premium rice following major public sector interventions made under the Agricultural Transformation Agenda. Given challenges with the availability and qual-ity of data, this assessment looks at the changes between two periods, 2009 and 2013, and simulates the performance of the sector under different technology capacities and policy scenarios. We find that the government has been success-ful in expanding quality paddy production and milling capacity in the country along with an increase in capacity utilization in the medium and large-scale milling sub-sectors. As a result, the production of premium quality rice has increased by approximately 0.5 million metric tons between the two periods. Despite these gains, the industry did not see any overall increase in employment in the medium and large-scale sub-sectors. Further focus by the government on expanding the supply of high quality rice paddy, while maintaining high tariffs to keep the medium and large scale milling sector viable, may provide the best opportunity for Nigeria to reach its goal of self-sufficiency in rice production.
Mara van den Bold,Agnes R. Quisumbing,Stuart Gillespie
Author : Mara van den Bold,Agnes R. Quisumbing,Stuart Gillespie Publisher : Intl Food Policy Res Inst Page : 80 pages File Size : 48,7 Mb Release : 2013-11-01 Category : Social Science ISBN : 8210379456XXX
Womens Empowerment and Nutrition by Mara van den Bold,Agnes R. Quisumbing,Stuart Gillespie Pdf
Many development programs that aim to alleviate poverty and improve investments in human capital consider womens empowerment a key pathway by which to achieve impact and often target women as their main beneficiaries. Despite this, womens empowerment dimensions are often not rigorously measured and are at times merely assumed. This paper starts by reflecting on the concept and measurement of womens empowerment and then reviews some of the structural interventions that aim to influence underlying gender norms in society and eradicate gender discrimination. It then proceeds to review the evidence of the impact of three types of interventionscash transfer programs, agricultural interventions, and microfinance programson womens empowerment, nutrition, or both. Qualitative evidence on conditional cash transfer (CCT) programs generally points to positive impacts on womens empowerment, although quantitative research findings are more heterogenous. CCT programs produce mixed results on long-term nutritional status, and very limited evidence exists of their impacts on micronutrient status. The little evidence available on unconditional cash transters (UCT) indicates mixed impacts on womens empowerment and positive impacts on nutrition; however, recent reviews comparing CCT and UCT programs have found little difference in terms of their effects on stunting and they have found that conditionality is less important than other factors, such as access to healthcare and child age and sex. Evidence of cash transfer program impacts depending on the gender of the transfer recipient or on the conditionality is also mixed, although CCTs with non-health conditionalities seem to have negative impacts on nutritional status. The impacts of programs based on the gender of the transfer recipient show mixed results, but almost no experimental evidence exists of testing gender-differentiated impacts of a single program. Agricultural interventionsspecifically home gardening and dairy projectsshow mixed impacts on womens empowerment measures such as time, workload, and control over income; but they demonstrate very little impact on nutrition. Implementation modalities are shown to determine differential impacts in terms of empowerment and nutrition outcomes. With regard to the impact of microfinance on womens empowerment, evidence is also mixed, although more recent reviews do not find any impact on womens empowerment. The impact of microfinance on nutritional status is mixed, with no evidence of impact on micronutrient status. Across all three types of programs (cash transfer programs, agricultural interventions, and microfinance programs), very little evidence exists on pathways of impact, and evidence is often biased toward a particular region. The paper ends with a discussion of the findings and remaining evidence gaps and an outline of recommendations for research.
Exploring gendered experiences of time-use agency in Benin, Malawi, and Nigeria as a new concept to measure women’s empowerment by Eissler, Sarah,Heckert, Jessica,Myers, Emily,Seymour, Gregory,Sinharoy, Sheela,Yount, Kathryn M. Pdf
Time use, or how women and men allocate their time, is an important aspect of empowerment. To build on this area of study, we propose and explore the concept of time-use agency in this paper, which shifts the focus from the amount of time spent on activities to the strategic choices that are made regarding how to allocate time. We draw on 92 interviews from qualitative studies in Benin, Malawi, and Nigeria to explore across contexts the salience of time-use agency as a component of women’s empowerment. Our results indicate that time-use agency is salient among both women and men and dictates how women and men are able to make and act upon strategic decisions related how they allocate their time. Our findings suggest that time-use agency is important for fully understanding empowerment with respect to time use. Importantly, this study highlights the gendered dynamics and barriers women face in exercising their time-use agency. These barriers are tied to and conditioned by social norms dictating how women should spend their time. Women often make tradeoffs throughout any given day with respect to their time, balancing their expected priorities with the barriers or limitations they face in being able to spend any additional time on tasks or activities that further their own strategic goals. Additionally, these results on time-use agency echo similar themes in the literature on gendered divisions of labor, time poverty, and decision-making, but also add new subtleties to this work. For example, we find that women can easily adjust their schedules but must carefully navigate relationships with husbands to be able to attend trainings or take on new income generating activities, results that align with previous findings that women consistently have higher involvement in small decisions compared to large ones. While these themes have been observed previously in studies of women’s empowerment, to our knowledge, our study is the first to connect them to time use and time-use agency. Our study contributes the conceptualization of time-use agency, and the identification of themes relevant to time-use agency, through the emic perspectives of women and men across three diverse settings in Sub-Saharan Africa. As a concept, time-use agency goes beyond measuring time use to understand the gendered dynamics around controlling one’s time use to advance their own strategic goals and highlights any barriers one faces in doing so. It is a particularly relevant concept for interventions that aim to increase (or at least, not diminish) women’s empowerment by promoting women’s involvement in remunerated activities. Although time-use agency, as a concept, has yet to be addressed in women’s empowerment literature. A next step in this area of inquiry is to develop survey indicators on time-use agency, which may reduce bias and cognitively burden compared to existing time use surveys.
