Belief Evidence And Uncertainty

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Belief, Evidence, and Uncertainty

Prasanta S. Bandyopadhyay,Gordon Brittan Jr.,Mark L. Taper
Belief Evidence and Uncertainty Book PDF

Author : Prasanta S. Bandyopadhyay,Gordon Brittan Jr.,Mark L. Taper
Publisher : Springer
Page : 178 pages
File Size : 54,6 Mb
Release : 2016-03-04
Category : Science
ISBN : 9783319277721

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Belief, Evidence, and Uncertainty by Prasanta S. Bandyopadhyay,Gordon Brittan Jr.,Mark L. Taper Pdf

This work breaks new ground by carefully distinguishing the concepts of belief, confirmation, and evidence and then integrating them into a better understanding of personal and scientific epistemologies. It outlines a probabilistic framework in which subjective features of personal knowledge and objective features of public knowledge have their true place. It also discusses the bearings of some statistical theorems on both formal and traditional epistemologies while showing how some of the existing paradoxes in both can be resolved with the help of this framework.This book has two central aims: First, to make precise a distinction between the concepts of confirmation and evidence and to argue that failure to recognize this distinction is the source of certain otherwise intractable epistemological problems. The second goal is to demonstrate to philosophers the fundamental importance of statistical and probabilistic methods, at stake in the uncertain conditions in which for the most part we lead our lives, not simply to inferential practice in science, where they are now standard, but to epistemic inference in other contexts as well. Although the argument is rigorous, it is also accessible. No technical knowledge beyond the rudiments of probability theory, arithmetic, and algebra is presupposed, otherwise unfamiliar terms are always defined and a number of concrete examples are given. At the same time, fresh analyses are offered with a discussion of statistical and epistemic reasoning by philosophers. This book will also be of interest to scientists and statisticians looking for a larger view of their own inferential techniques.The book concludes with a technical appendix which introduces an evidential approach to multi-model inference as an alternative to Bayesian model averaging.

Uncertain Belief

David J. Bartholomew
Uncertain Belief Book PDF

Author : David J. Bartholomew
Publisher : Clarendon Press
Page : 302 pages
File Size : 51,8 Mb
Release : 1996-03-14
Category : Religion
ISBN : 9780191584732

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Uncertain Belief by David J. Bartholomew Pdf

The certainties which once underpinned Christian belief have crumbled in a world where science sets the standard for what is true. A rational case for belief must therefore be constructed out of uncertainties. Probability theory provides the tools for measuring and combining uncertainties and is thus the key to progress. This book examines four much debated topics where the logic of uncertain inference can be brought to bear. These are: miracles, the paranormal, God's existence, and the Bible. Given the great diversity of evidence, it is not surprising that opposite conclusions have been drawn by supposedly rational people. An assessment of the state of argument from a probabilistic perspective is overdue. In this book Professor Bartholomew examines and refutes some of the more extravagent claims, evaluates the weight of some of the quantitive evidence, and provides an answer to the fundamental question: is it rational to be a Christian?

Uncertainty

Kostas Kampourakis,Kevin McCain
Uncertainty Book PDF

Author : Kostas Kampourakis,Kevin McCain
Publisher : Oxford University Press, USA
Page : 273 pages
File Size : 40,5 Mb
Release : 2020
Category : Philosophy
ISBN : 9780190871666

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Uncertainty by Kostas Kampourakis,Kevin McCain Pdf

Anti-evolutionists, climate denialists, and anti-vaxxers, among others, question some of the best-established scientific findings by referring to the uncertainties in these areas of research. Uncertainty: How It Makes Science Advance shows that uncertainty is an inherent feature of science that makes it advance by motivating further research.

The Virtue of Uncertainty

Eugene R Moutoux
The Virtue of Uncertainty Book PDF

Author : Eugene R Moutoux
Publisher : Butler Book Publishing
Page : 216 pages
File Size : 41,8 Mb
Release : 2018-02
Category : Electronic
ISBN : 194195362X

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The Virtue of Uncertainty by Eugene R Moutoux Pdf

The Virtue of Uncertainty examines Christianity's origin, its purported revelations, its sacred book, its moral principles, its doctrines, its theology, its history, and its effects on society. The purpose of the book is to show that religious certainty flies in the face of evidence and rational thought, and that doubt ought to be a sine qua non for Christians. The author, Eugene R. Moutoux, spent nine years (1953-1962) preparing for the Catholic priesthood; however, finding it increasingly difficult to believe, and wanting a wife and family, he dropped out of the seminary two months before scheduled ordination. Gene has a Ph.D. in German from the University of California at Santa Barbara. He lives in New Albany, Indiana.

Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence 2

L.N. Kanal,J.F. Lemmer
Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence 2 Book PDF

Author : L.N. Kanal,J.F. Lemmer
Publisher : Elsevier
Page : 469 pages
File Size : 41,9 Mb
Release : 2014-06-28
Category : Computers
ISBN : 9781483296531

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Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence 2 by L.N. Kanal,J.F. Lemmer Pdf

This second volume is arranged in four sections: Analysis contains papers which compare the attributes of various approaches to uncertainty. Tools provides sufficient information for the reader to implement uncertainty calculations. Papers in the Theory section explain various approaches to uncertainty. The Applications section describes the difficulties involved in, and the results produced by, incorporating uncertainty into actual systems.

Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence

Bruce D'Ambrosio,Philippe Smets,Piero Patrone Bonissone
Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence Book PDF

Author : Bruce D'Ambrosio,Philippe Smets,Piero Patrone Bonissone
Publisher : Elsevier
Page : 445 pages
File Size : 44,5 Mb
Release : 2014-06-28
Category : Computers
ISBN : 9781483298566

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Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence by Bruce D'Ambrosio,Philippe Smets,Piero Patrone Bonissone Pdf

Uncertainty Proceedings 1991

The Geometry of Uncertainty

Fabio Cuzzolin
The Geometry of Uncertainty Book PDF

Author : Fabio Cuzzolin
Publisher : Springer Nature
Page : 850 pages
File Size : 53,9 Mb
Release : 2020-12-17
Category : Computers
ISBN : 9783030631536

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The Geometry of Uncertainty by Fabio Cuzzolin Pdf

The principal aim of this book is to introduce to the widest possible audience an original view of belief calculus and uncertainty theory. In this geometric approach to uncertainty, uncertainty measures can be seen as points of a suitably complex geometric space, and manipulated in that space, for example, combined or conditioned. In the chapters in Part I, Theories of Uncertainty, the author offers an extensive recapitulation of the state of the art in the mathematics of uncertainty. This part of the book contains the most comprehensive summary to date of the whole of belief theory, with Chap. 4 outlining for the first time, and in a logical order, all the steps of the reasoning chain associated with modelling uncertainty using belief functions, in an attempt to provide a self-contained manual for the working scientist. In addition, the book proposes in Chap. 5 what is possibly the most detailed compendium available of all theories of uncertainty. Part II, The Geometry of Uncertainty, is the core of this book, as it introduces the author’s own geometric approach to uncertainty theory, starting with the geometry of belief functions: Chap. 7 studies the geometry of the space of belief functions, or belief space, both in terms of a simplex and in terms of its recursive bundle structure; Chap. 8 extends the analysis to Dempster’s rule of combination, introducing the notion of a conditional subspace and outlining a simple geometric construction for Dempster’s sum; Chap. 9 delves into the combinatorial properties of plausibility and commonality functions, as equivalent representations of the evidence carried by a belief function; then Chap. 10 starts extending the applicability of the geometric approach to other uncertainty measures, focusing in particular on possibility measures (consonant belief functions) and the related notion of a consistent belief function. The chapters in Part III, Geometric Interplays, are concerned with the interplay of uncertainty measures of different kinds, and the geometry of their relationship, with a particular focus on the approximation problem. Part IV, Geometric Reasoning, examines the application of the geometric approach to the various elements of the reasoning chain illustrated in Chap. 4, in particular conditioning and decision making. Part V concludes the book by outlining a future, complete statistical theory of random sets, future extensions of the geometric approach, and identifying high-impact applications to climate change, machine learning and artificial intelligence. The book is suitable for researchers in artificial intelligence, statistics, and applied science engaged with theories of uncertainty. The book is supported with the most comprehensive bibliography on belief and uncertainty theory.

Uncertainty Quantification of Stochastic Defects in Materials

Liu Chu
Uncertainty Quantification of Stochastic Defects in Materials Book PDF

Author : Liu Chu
Publisher : CRC Press
Page : 179 pages
File Size : 54,5 Mb
Release : 2021-12-16
Category : Technology & Engineering
ISBN : 9781000506099

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Uncertainty Quantification of Stochastic Defects in Materials by Liu Chu Pdf

Uncertainty Quantification of Stochastic Defects in Materials investigates the uncertainty quantification methods for stochastic defects in material microstructures. It provides effective supplementary approaches for conventional experimental observation with the consideration of stochastic factors and uncertainty propagation. Pursuing a comprehensive numerical analytical system, this book establishes a fundamental framework for this topic, while emphasizing the importance of stochastic and uncertainty quantification analysis and the significant influence of microstructure defects on the material macro properties. Key Features Consists of two parts: one exploring methods and theories and the other detailing related examples Defines stochastic defects in materials and presents the uncertainty quantification for defect location, size, geometrical configuration, and instability Introduces general Monte Carlo methods, polynomial chaos expansion, stochastic finite element methods, and machine learning methods Provides a variety of examples to support the introduced methods and theories Applicable to MATLAB® and ANSYS software This book is intended for advanced students interested in material defect quantification methods and material reliability assessment, researchers investigating artificial material microstructure optimization, and engineers working on defect influence analysis and nondestructive defect testing.

Logic and Uncertainty in the Human Mind

Shira Elqayam,Igor Douven,Jonathan St B. T. Evans,Nicole Cruz
Logic and Uncertainty in the Human Mind Book PDF

Author : Shira Elqayam,Igor Douven,Jonathan St B. T. Evans,Nicole Cruz
Publisher : Routledge
Page : 264 pages
File Size : 42,5 Mb
Release : 2020-06-10
Category : Psychology
ISBN : 9781351620413

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Logic and Uncertainty in the Human Mind by Shira Elqayam,Igor Douven,Jonathan St B. T. Evans,Nicole Cruz Pdf

David E. Over is a leading cognitive scientist and, with his firm grounding in philosophical logic, he also exerts a powerful influence on the psychology of reasoning. He is responsible for not only a large body of empirical work and accompanying theory, but for advancing a major shift in thinking about reasoning, commonly known as the ‘new paradigm’ in the psychology of human reasoning. Over’s signature mix of philosophical logic and experimental psychology has inspired generations of researchers, psychologists, and philosophers alike over more than a quarter of a century. The chapters in this volume, written by a leading group of contributors including a number who helped shape the psychology of reasoning as we know it today, each take their starting point from the key themes of Over’s ground-breaking work. The essays in this collection explore a wide range of central topics—such as rationality, bias, dual processes, and dual systems—as well as contemporary psychological and philosophical theories of conditionals. It concludes with an engaging new chapter, authored by David E. Over himself, which details and analyses the new paradigm psychology of reasoning. This book is therefore important reading for scholars, researchers, and advanced students in psychology, philosophy, and the cognitive sciences, including those who are not familiar with Over’s thought already.

Design Optimization Under Uncertainty

Weifei Hu
Design Optimization Under Uncertainty Book PDF

Author : Weifei Hu
Publisher : Springer Nature
Page : 282 pages
File Size : 45,7 Mb
Release : 2023-12-22
Category : Mathematics
ISBN : 9783031492082

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Design Optimization Under Uncertainty by Weifei Hu Pdf

This book introduces the fundamentals of probability, statistical, and reliability concepts, the classical methods of uncertainty quantification and analytical reliability analysis, and the state-of-the-art approaches of design optimization under uncertainty (e.g., reliability-based design optimization and robust design optimization). The topics include basic concepts of probability and distributions, uncertainty quantification using probabilistic methods, classical reliability analysis methods, time-variant reliability analysis methods, fundamentals of deterministic design optimization, reliability-based design optimization, robust design optimization, other methods of design optimization under uncertainty, and engineering applications of design optimization under uncertainty.

God's Not Dead

Rice Broocks
God s Not Dead Book PDF

Author : Rice Broocks
Publisher : HarperChristian + ORM
Page : 302 pages
File Size : 54,5 Mb
Release : 2013-03-11
Category : Religion
ISBN : 9780849964305

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God's Not Dead by Rice Broocks Pdf

The evidence behind the hit movie! God’s NotDead is apologetics for the twenty-first century, presented in clear and easy-to-follow terms. Learn to defend your faith in a world that’s determined to tear it down. The goal of God’s Not Dead is straightforward: to help readers develop a faith that is real and credible—and strong enough to help others find faith in God. Author Rice Broocks outlines a roadmap that guides seekers to acknowledge the most basic truths of Christianity: There is overwhelming and exciting evidence for God’s existence The God who exists is indeed the God of the Bible God has revealed his nature through his Son, Jesus Christ As shown during the movie, this is the original book on which the main character bases much of his debate points with his atheistic professor. It contains persuasive arguments crafted with tools borrowed from logic, science, philosophy, and scripture that will solidify your faith and provide starting points for discussions with skeptics. With clear, easy-to-follow explanations of key concepts and controversies, God’s NotDead is modern apologetics presented in layman’s terms. You will be empowered not only to talk about your own faith with confidence, but to lead others to a relationship with Jesus.

Enrichment of Qualitative Beliefs for Reasoning under Uncertainty

Xinde Li ,Xinhan Huang ,Florentin Smarandache ,Jean Dezert
Enrichment of Qualitative Beliefs for Reasoning under Uncertainty Book PDF

Author : Xinde Li ,Xinhan Huang ,Florentin Smarandache ,Jean Dezert
Publisher : Infinite Study
Page : 12 pages
File Size : 52,7 Mb
Release : 2024-06-16
Category : Electronic
ISBN : 8210379456XXX

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Enrichment of Qualitative Beliefs for Reasoning under Uncertainty by Xinde Li ,Xinhan Huang ,Florentin Smarandache ,Jean Dezert Pdf

This paper deals with enriched qualitative belief functions for reasoning under uncertainty and for combining information expressed in natural language through linguistic labels.

Uncertainty and Vagueness in Knowledge Based Systems

Rudolf Kruse,Erhard Schwecke,Jochen Heinsohn
Uncertainty and Vagueness in Knowledge Based Systems Book PDF

Author : Rudolf Kruse,Erhard Schwecke,Jochen Heinsohn
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
Page : 495 pages
File Size : 44,6 Mb
Release : 2012-12-06
Category : Computers
ISBN : 9783642767029

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Uncertainty and Vagueness in Knowledge Based Systems by Rudolf Kruse,Erhard Schwecke,Jochen Heinsohn Pdf

The primary aim of this monograph is to provide a formal framework for the representation and management of uncertainty and vagueness in the field of artificial intelligence. It puts particular emphasis on a thorough analysis of these phenomena and on the development of sound mathematical modeling approaches. Beyond this theoretical basis the scope of the book includes also implementational aspects and a valuation of existing models and systems. The fundamental ambition of this book is to show that vagueness and un certainty can be handled adequately by using measure-theoretic methods. The presentation of applicable knowledge representation formalisms and reasoning algorithms substantiates the claim that efficiency requirements do not necessar ily require renunciation of an uncompromising mathematical modeling. These results are used to evaluate systems based on probabilistic methods as well as on non-standard concepts such as certainty factors, fuzzy sets or belief functions. The book is intended to be self-contained and addresses researchers and practioneers in the field of knowledge based systems. It is in particular suit able as a textbook for graduate-level students in AI, operations research and applied probability. A solid mathematical background is necessary for reading this book. Essential parts of the material have been the subject of courses given by the first author for students of computer science and mathematics held since 1984 at the University in Braunschweig.

Uncertainty in Risk Assessment

Terje Aven,Piero Baraldi,Roger Flage,Enrico Zio
Uncertainty in Risk Assessment Book PDF

Author : Terje Aven,Piero Baraldi,Roger Flage,Enrico Zio
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
Page : 152 pages
File Size : 41,5 Mb
Release : 2013-12-17
Category : Mathematics
ISBN : 9781118763063

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Uncertainty in Risk Assessment by Terje Aven,Piero Baraldi,Roger Flage,Enrico Zio Pdf

Explores methods for the representation and treatment of uncertainty in risk assessment In providing guidance for practical decision-making situations concerning high-consequence technologies (e.g., nuclear, oil and gas, transport, etc.), the theories and methods studied in Uncertainty in Risk Assessment have wide-ranging applications from engineering and medicine to environmental impacts and natural disasters, security, and financial risk management. The main focus, however, is on engineering applications. While requiring some fundamental background in risk assessment, as well as a basic knowledge of probability theory and statistics, Uncertainty in Risk Assessment can be read profitably by a broad audience of professionals in the field, including researchers and graduate students on courses within risk analysis, statistics, engineering, and the physical sciences. Uncertainty in Risk Assessment: Illustrates the need for seeing beyond probability to represent uncertainties in risk assessment contexts. Provides simple explanations (supported by straightforward numerical examples) of the meaning of different types of probabilities, including interval probabilities, and the fundamentals of possibility theory and evidence theory. Offers guidance on when to use probability and when to use an alternative representation of uncertainty. Presents and discusses methods for the representation and characterization of uncertainty in risk assessment. Uses examples to clearly illustrate ideas and concepts.

The Importance of Being Rational

Errol Lord
The Importance of Being Rational Book PDF

Author : Errol Lord
Publisher : Oxford University Press
Page : 278 pages
File Size : 44,6 Mb
Release : 2018-05-30
Category : Philosophy
ISBN : 9780192546753

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The Importance of Being Rational by Errol Lord Pdf

The Importance of Being Rational systematically defends a novel reasons-based account of rationality. The book's central thesis is that what it is for one to be rational is to correctly respond to the normative reasons one possesses. Errol Lord defends novel views about what it is to possess reasons and what it is to correctly respond to reasons. He shows that these views not only help to support the book's main thesis, they also help to resolve several important problems that are independent of rationality. The account of possession provides novel contributions to debates about what determines what we ought to do, and the account of correctly responding to reasons provides novel contributions to debates about causal theories of reacting for reasons. After defending views about possession and correctly responding, Lord shows that the account of rationality can solve two difficult problems about rationality. The first is the New Evil Demon problem. The book argues that the account has the resources to show that internal duplicates necessarily have the same rational status. The second problem concerns the deontic significance of rationality. Recently it has been doubted whether we ought to be rational. The ultimate conclusion of the book is that the requirements of rationality are the requirements that we ultimately ought to comply with. If this is right, then rationality is of fundamental importance to our deliberative lives.