Business Cycles And Macroeconomic Stability

Author : Jean-Olivier Hairault,Pierre-Yves Hénin,Franck Portier
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
Page : 355 pages
File Size : 53,9 Mb
Release : 2012-12-06
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781461561736

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Business Cycles and Macroeconomic Stability by Jean-Olivier Hairault,Pierre-Yves Hénin,Franck Portier Pdf

Setting the issue "Most economists consider the marked increase in automatic stabilizers a highly favorable development with respect to maintenance of economic stability". Besides the rare privilege of having being signed by both Milton Friedman and Paul Samuelson (Depres,Friedman, Hart, Samuelson, and Wallace [1950]), among others, this sentence expressed as soon as 1950 the consensus view on the stabilizing effect of fiscal rules governing tax revenue and public expendi tures and transfers. This positive ex ante assessment will have been confirmed ex post as part of the explanation for post war stabilization (Burns [1960], de Long and Summers [1986], Moore and Zarnovitz [1986]). However, it becomes disputed in both its positive and normative aspects. Many institutional changes since the eighties point at curbing back the transfer mechanisms underlying automatic stabilizers, and legal restraints on deficits such as the US balanced budget amendment or the European Maastricht criteria would involve serious risks for the future of stabilizers. Under such rules "the government would become, almost inevitally, a destabilizer rather than a stabilizer" said Joseph Stiglitz, quoted by the New York Times (April 1995)). "Built-in stabilizers are automatic fiscal adjustments that reduce the national income multiplier and thus cushion the effects of changes in autonomous spend ing on the level of income" (Pechman [1987]). Early analyses of the automatic fiscal stabilizers include the contributions of A. G. Hart [1945], R. Musgrave and M. Miller (1948) and E. C. Brown (1955).

Author : Ms.Valerie Cerra,A. Fatas,Ms.Sweta Chaman Saxena
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 50 pages
File Size : 45,9 Mb
Release : 2020-05-29
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781513536996

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Hysteresis and Business Cycles by Ms.Valerie Cerra,A. Fatas,Ms.Sweta Chaman Saxena Pdf

Traditionally, economic growth and business cycles have been treated independently. However, the dependence of GDP levels on its history of shocks, what economists refer to as “hysteresis,” argues for unifying the analysis of growth and cycles. In this paper, we review the recent empirical and theoretical literature that motivate this paradigm shift. The renewed interest in hysteresis has been sparked by the persistence of the Global Financial Crisis and fears of a slow recovery from the Covid-19 crisis. The findings of the recent literature have far-reaching conceptual and policy implications. In recessions, monetary and fiscal policies need to be more active to avoid the permanent scars of a downturn. And in good times, running a high-pressure economy could have permanent positive effects.

Author : Willi Semmler
Publisher : Routledge
Page : 274 pages
File Size : 43,8 Mb
Release : 2019-08-08
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781315288796

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Financial Dynamics and Business Cycles by Willi Semmler Pdf

As the 55th anniversary of the bank holiday of March 1933 approached, financial instability was a main topic in the financial press. Daily reports appeared of international debt crises, of the covert bankruptcy of deposit insurance, and of the near bankruptcy of one great financial institution after another. The great stock market crash of October 19 and 20, 1987, demonstrated that extreme instability can happen. It is generally asserted that the consequences of October 19th and 20th would have been disastrous if the Federal Reserve and Treasury interventions had not set things right. In 1933, financial markets in the United States and throughout the capitalist world collapsed. In the light of historical experience, the past 55 years are the anomaly. The papers collected in this volume come from various backgrounds and research paradigms. A common theme runs through these papers that makes the collection both interesting and important: The authors take seriously the obvious evidence that capitalist economies progress through time by lurching. Whether a particular study starts from household utility maximization or from the processes by which productive structures are reproduced and expanded, the authors are united in accepting the evidence that financial instability is a significant characteristic of modern capitalism.

Author : A. W. Mullineux
Publisher : Bookboon
Page : 146 pages
File Size : 50,5 Mb
Release : 1990
Category : Business cycles
ISBN : 9788776818852

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Business Cycles and Financial Crises by A. W. Mullineux Pdf

Author : Victor Zarnowitz
Publisher : University of Chicago Press
Page : 613 pages
File Size : 47,5 Mb
Release : 2007-11-01
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9780226978925

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Business Cycles by Victor Zarnowitz Pdf

This volume presents the most complete collection available of the work of Victor Zarnowitz, a leader in the study of business cycles, growth, inflation, and forecasting.. With characteristic insight, Zarnowitz examines theories of the business cycle, including Keynesian and monetary theories and more recent rational expectation and real business cycle theories. He also measures trends and cycles in economic activity; evaluates the performance of leading indicators and their composite measures; surveys forecasting tools and performance of business and academic economists; discusses historical changes in the nature and sources of business cycles; and analyzes how successfully forecasting firms and economists predict such key economic variables as interest rates and inflation.

Author : Robert J. Gordon
Publisher : University of Chicago Press
Page : 882 pages
File Size : 41,5 Mb
Release : 2007-11-01
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9780226304595

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The American Business Cycle by Robert J. Gordon Pdf

In recent decades the American economy has experienced the worst peace-time inflation in its history and the highest unemployment rate since the Great Depression. These circumstances have prompted renewed interest in the concept of business cycles, which Joseph Schumpeter suggested are "like the beat of the heart, of the essence of the organism that displays them." In The American Business Cycle, some of the most prominent macroeconomics in the United States focuses on the questions, To what extent are business cycles propelled by external shocks? How have post-1946 cycles differed from earlier cycles? And, what are the major factors that contribute to business cycles? They extend their investigation in some areas as far back as 1875 to afford a deeper understanding of both economic history and the most recent economic fluctuations. Seven papers address specific aspects of economic activity: consumption, investment, inventory change, fiscal policy, monetary behavior, open economy, and the labor market. Five papers focus on aggregate economic activity. In a number of cases, the papers present findings that challenge widely accepted models and assumptions. In addition to its substantive findings, The American Business Cycle includes an appendix containing both the first published history of the NBER business-cycle dating chronology and many previously unpublished historical data series.

Author : Francis X. Diebold,Glenn D. Rudebusch
Publisher : Princeton University Press
Page : 438 pages
File Size : 46,9 Mb
Release : 2020-10-06
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9780691219585

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Business Cycles by Francis X. Diebold,Glenn D. Rudebusch Pdf

This is the most sophisticated and up-to-date econometric analysis of business cycles now available. Francis Diebold and Glenn Rudebusch have long been acknowledged as leading experts on business cycles. And here they present a highly integrative collection of their most important essays on the subject, along with a detailed introduction that draws together the book's principal themes and findings. Diebold and Rudebusch use the latest quantitative methods to address five principal questions about the measurement, modeling, and forecasting of business cycles. They ask whether business cycles have become more moderate in the postwar period, concluding that recessions have, in fact, been shorter and shallower. They consider whether economic expansions and contractions tend to die of "old age." Contrary to popular wisdom, they find little evidence that expansions become more fragile the longer they last, although they do find that contractions are increasingly likely to end as they age. The authors discuss the defining characteristics of business cycles, focusing on how economic variables move together and on the timing of the slow alternation between expansions and contractions. They explore the difficulties of distinguishing between long-term trends in the economy and cyclical fluctuations. And they examine how business cycles can be forecast, looking in particular at how to predict turning points in cycles, rather than merely the level of future economic activity. They show here that the index of leading economic indicators is a poor predictor of future economic activity, and consider what we can learn from other indicators, such as financial variables. Throughout, the authors make use of a variety of advanced econometric techniques, including nonparametric analysis, fractional integration, and regime-switching models. Business Cycles is crucial reading for policymakers, bankers, and business executives.

Author : Hajime Hori
Publisher : Springer
Page : 142 pages
File Size : 44,5 Mb
Release : 2017-05-09
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9789811030819

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Business Cycle Dynamics and Stabilization Policies by Hajime Hori Pdf

This monograph is devoted to the analysis of the dynamics of business cycles and stabilization policies. The analysis is conducted in models of the AS-AD type, focusing on involuntary unemployment and capital accumulation. Major conclusions are the following. (1) Sectoral imbalances, once emphasized by such business-cycle theorists as K. Marx, A. Spiethoff, and F.A. Hayek, are rectified in finite time by competitive investment allocation, leaving aggregate variables as the main variables of business cycle dynamics. (2) The chronology of events during a cycle is established, which resolves the so-called real wage puzzle. (3) Owing to the crowding-out effect on investment, fiscal stabilization policies can destabilize the business cycle dynamics if implemented too intensively. (4) If coordinated properly, monetary stabilization policies can remove the destabilizing tendency of fiscal stabilization policies.

Author : Franco Nardini
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
Page : 187 pages
File Size : 50,7 Mb
Release : 2012-12-06
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9783642566592

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Technical Progress and Economic Growth by Franco Nardini Pdf

In this book we intend to discuss economic fluctuations and growth and possible stabilizing fiscal policies. Since these topics are major preoccupa tions of economic theorists and have been extensively discussed since the classics, one may wonder why another book on these subjects. A possible defense is that we are going to do so in the framework of a two-sector model where the main featureS of each sector depend on the characteristics of the goods produced by the sector itself. The conventional wisdom suggests that the problem of (dis )aggregation in growth and business cycle theory is basically a quantitative one: the model should consider as many sectors, goods, and agents as necessary to provide a sufficiently rich picture, the upper bound obviously resulting from the tractability of the problem. In this attitude the same equilibrium (or diseqUilibrium) assumptions generally hold true throughout all sectors. Here we want to prove the relevance of an alternative approach: we look at the qualitative differences across sectors and at the peculiarities of each market as at the determinants of the economic dynamics. This tradition goes back over one hundred years to Tugan-Baranowkj and has been de veloped by Aftalion, Fanno, Spiethof, and Lowe, but has never been sys tematically formalized.

Author : Ms.Valerie Cerra,Ms.Sweta Chaman Saxena
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 31 pages
File Size : 47,7 Mb
Release : 2017-11-16
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781484329399

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Booms, Crises, and Recoveries: A New Paradigm of the Business Cycle and its Policy Implications by Ms.Valerie Cerra,Ms.Sweta Chaman Saxena Pdf

All types of recessions, on average, not just those associated with financial and political crises (as in Cerra and Saxena, AER 2008), lead to permanent output losses. These findings have far-reaching conceptual and policy implications. A new paradigm of the business cycle needs to account for shifts in trend output and the puzzling inconsistency of output dynamics with other cyclical components of production. The ‘output gap’ can be ill-conceived, poorly measured, and inconsistent over time. Persistent losses require more buffers and crisis-avoidance policies, affecting tradeoffs in prudential, macroeconomic, and reserve management policies. The frequency and depth of crises are key determinants of long-term growth and drive a new stylized model of economic development.

Author : Pascal Bridel,Muriel Dalpont
Publisher : Routledge
Page : 200 pages
File Size : 51,6 Mb
Release : 2017-10-02
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781317381983

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Business cycle theory as a basis for economic policy by Pascal Bridel,Muriel Dalpont Pdf

This book aims to start a debate on the relationship between economic theory – and more precisely business cycle theory – and economic policy, emphasising the diversity of views on economic policy which characterised older periods, in contrast to the homogeneity of the analysis and diagnosis provided by current business cycles developments. Since the 1970s, economic theorists excluding any economic policy interventions and favouring strictly supply-side economic policies have gained a growing influence. The development of Equilibrium Business Cycles theories coincides with the collapse, at least in academic circles, of the Keynesian consensus favouring stabilization policies. The alternative approach which emerged was based on an a priori hypothesis about the stability of the economy – or at least on its remarkable ability to stabilize itself. The direct consequence of this approach is that any stabilization objective for economic policy is not only misguided but also inefficient. There are many reasons why Keynesian policies ceased to be dominant in theoretical circles, but the most helpful circumstances for the rapid propagation of a new revolutionary theory is certainly the existence of an established orthodoxy, clearly inconsistent with the most salient facts of reality. This book offers a sample of different theoretical approaches to business cycles, examining their respective views on economic policy with the objective of understanding business cycles that have been lost, and identifying those views which explain fluctuations and the way we conceive economic policy. This book was originally published as a special issue of The European Journal of the History of Economic Thought.

Author : Fouad Sabry
Publisher : One Billion Knowledgeable
Page : 318 pages
File Size : 54,5 Mb
Release : 2024-04-15
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : PKEY:6610000550210

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Real Business Cycle Theory by Fouad Sabry Pdf

What is Real Business Cycle Theory Real business-cycle theory is a class of new classical macroeconomics models in which business-cycle fluctuations are accounted for by real shocks. Unlike other leading theories of the business cycle, RBC theory sees business cycle fluctuations as the efficient response to exogenous changes in the real economic environment. That is, the level of national output necessarily maximizes expected utility, and governments should therefore concentrate on long-run structural policy changes and not intervene through discretionary fiscal or monetary policy designed to actively smooth out economic short-term fluctuations. How you will benefit (I) Insights, and validations about the following topics: Chapter 1: Real business-cycle theory Chapter 2: Keynesian economics Chapter 3: Macroeconomics Chapter 4: Recession Chapter 5: New Keynesian economics Chapter 6: Real versus nominal value (economics) Chapter 7: Business cycle Chapter 8: Aggregate demand Chapter 9: Procyclical and countercyclical variables Chapter 10: Robert Hall (economist) Chapter 11: Economic stability Chapter 12: Dynamic stochastic general equilibrium Chapter 13: Neoclassical synthesis Chapter 14: New classical macroeconomics Chapter 15: Great Moderation Chapter 16: Demand-led growth Chapter 17: Stock market cycle Chapter 18: History of macroeconomic thought Chapter 19: Welfare cost of business cycles Chapter 20: Regression analysis Chapter 21: Economic recession in Iran (II) Answering the public top questions about real business cycle theory. (III) Real world examples for the usage of real business cycle theory in many fields. Who this book is for Professionals, undergraduate and graduate students, enthusiasts, hobbyists, and those who want to go beyond basic knowledge or information for any kind of Real Business Cycle Theory.

Author : T. Nagakawa
Publisher : Nova Publishers
Page : 308 pages
File Size : 50,8 Mb
Release : 2008
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 1600215033

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Business Fluctuations and Cycles by T. Nagakawa Pdf

The business cycle or economic cycle refers to the periodic fluctuations of economic activity about its long term growth trend. The cycle involves shifts over time between periods of relatively rapid growth of output (recovery and prosperity), alternating with periods of relative stagnation or decline (contraction or recession). These fluctuations are often measured using the real gross domestic product. One of the government's main roles is to smooth out the business cycle and reduce its fluctuations. To call those alternances 'cycles' is rather misleading as they don't tend to repeat at fairly regular time intervals. Most observers find that their lengths (from peak to peak, or from trough to trough) vary, so that cycles are not mechanical in their regularity. Since no two cycles are alike in their details, some economists dispute the existence of cycles and use the word 'fluctuations' (or the like) instead. Others see enough similarities between cycles that the cycle is a valid basis of studying the state of the economy. A key question is whether or not there are similar mechanisms that generate recessions and/or booms that exist in capitalist economies so that the dynamics that appear as a cycle will be seen again and again. This new book presents leading-edge research in this field.

Author : F. A. Hayek
Publisher : University of Chicago Press
Page : 303 pages
File Size : 47,9 Mb
Release : 2012-01-27
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9780226320465

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Business Cycles, Part I by F. A. Hayek Pdf

“The two Business Cycles volumes bring together” the Nobel Laureate economist’s “most substantial contributions to technical economics” (Roger W. Garrison, Auburn University). In the years following its publication, F. A. Hayek’s pioneering work on business cycles was regarded as an important challenge to what was later known as Keynesian macroeconomics. Today, as debates rage on over the monetary origins of the current economic and financial crisis, economists are once again paying heed to Hayek’s thoughts on the repercussions of excessive central bank interventions. The latest editions in the University of Chicago Press’s ongoing series The Collected Works of F. A. Hayek, these volumes bring together Hayek’s work on what causes periods of boom and bust in the economy. Moving away from the classical emphasis on equilibrium, Hayek demonstrates that business cycles are generated by the adaptation of the structure of production to changes in relative demand. Thus, when central banks artificially lower interest rates, the result is a misallocation of capital and the creation of asset bubbles and additional instability. Business Cycles, Part I contains Hayek’s two major monographs on the topic: Monetary Theory and the Trade Cycle and Prices and Production. Reproducing the text of the original 1933 translation of the former, this edition also draws on the original German, as well as more recent translations. For Prices and Production, a variorum edition is presented, incorporating the 1931 first edition and its 1935 revision. Business Cycles, Part II assembles a series of Hayek’s shorter papers on the topic. The two volumes of Business Cycles also include extensive introductions by Hansjoerg Klausinger, providing background on the evolution of Hayek’s thought.

Author : Keiko Honjo
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 30 pages
File Size : 47,7 Mb
Release : 2007-08
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : UCSD:31822034966762

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The Golden Rule and the Economic Cycles by Keiko Honjo Pdf

The present formulation of the golden rule in the United Kingdom allows fiscal performance to be tested explicitly on an ex-post basis. However, it requires precise dating of the economic cycle, which can lead to significant controversy. Also, the need to aim for current balance or better "over the cycle" may force fiscal policy to be procyclical toward the end of cycles. Using dynamic stochastic simulations, the paper suggests that making the formulation of the golden rule forward-looking and independent of the dating of the economic cycle would reduce the risk of procyclicality and enhance macroeconomic stability.