Climate Change And Agriculture In The Sudan Impact Pathways Beyond Changes In Mean Rainfall And Temperature

Author : Siddig, Khalid,Stepanyan, Davit,Wiebelt, Manfred,Zhu, Tingju,Grethe, Harald
Publisher : Intl Food Policy Res Inst
Page : 30 pages
File Size : 53,8 Mb
Release : 2018-09-26
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 8210379456XXX

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Climate change and agriculture in the Sudan: Impact pathways beyond changes in mean rainfall and temperature by Siddig, Khalid,Stepanyan, Davit,Wiebelt, Manfred,Zhu, Tingju,Grethe, Harald Pdf

Several environmental changes have occurred in the Sudan in the past; several are ongoing; and others are projected to happen in the future. The Sudan has witnessed increases in temperature, floods, rainfall variability, and concurrent droughts. In a country where agriculture, which is mainly rainfed, is a major contributor to gross domestic product, foreign exchange earnings, and livelihoods, these changes are especially important, requiring measurement and analysis of their impact. This study not only analyzes the economy-wide impacts of climate change, but also consults national policy plans, strategies, and environmental assessments to identify interventions which may mitigate the effects. We feed climate forcing, water demand, and macro-socioeconomic trends into a modelling suite that includes models for global hydrology, river basin management, water stress, and crop growth, all connected to the International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade (IMPACT). The outcomes of this part of the modeling suite are annual crop yields and global food prices under various climate change scenarios until 2050. The effects of such changes on production, consumption, macroeconomic indicators, and income distribution are assessed using a single country dynamic Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model for the Sudan. Additionally, we introduce yield variability into the CGE model based on stochastic projections of crop yields until 2050. The results of the model simulations reveal that, while the projected mean climate changes bring some good news for the Sudan, extreme negative variability costs the Sudan cumulatively between 2018 and 2050 US$ 109.5 billion in total absorption and US$ 105.5 billion in GDP relative to a historical mean climate scenario without climate change.

Author : Johnbosco C. Egbueri,Joshua O. Ighalo,Chaitanya B. Pande
Publisher : Springer Nature
Page : 581 pages
File Size : 46,6 Mb
Release : 2023-04-19
Category : Science
ISBN : 9783031210075

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Climate Change Impacts on Nigeria by Johnbosco C. Egbueri,Joshua O. Ighalo,Chaitanya B. Pande Pdf

This book explores the impacts of climate change on Nigeria. How climate change impacts the productivity and future development of different sectors in Nigeria was covered in this book. Various themes of the Nigerian economy, environment, and climate change were considered. Worthy of note are the impacts of climate change on the Nigerian air quality, surface and groundwater resources, watershed and natural resources’ development and planning, soil- quality, fertility, salinization, nutrients and cropping patterns. Also, the impact of climate change on land use/land cover, urbanization and strategic planning, crops and sustainable crop yield; land degradation, soil erosion, landslides and landscapes, rainfall trend patterns, drought vulnerability; ecology, vegetation/forest, carbon and biomass management of Nigeria were investigated. Finally, the problems of climate change in semi-arid and arid regions (with special emphasis on Nigeria) and possible solutions for sustainable development under the changing climate were discussed in this book. Advanced technologies, such as remote sensing, GIS, multivariate analytical tools, and machine learning techniques, were utilized in the exploration and analysis of the themes of this book. Thus, this book is a very important product for point of view researchers, scientists, NGOs, and university communities on the Nigerian climate change. This book is a useful interdisciplinary tool, cutting across various disciplines such as earth sciences, hydrology, environmental sciences, soil science, engineering, remote sensing, natural resources management, and public health management, etc.

Author : Aragie, Emerta,Gebretsadik, Yohannes
Publisher : Intl Food Policy Res Inst
Page : 41 pages
File Size : 53,5 Mb
Release : 2024-01-16
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 8210379456XXX

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Modeling the economywide effects of water and energy interventions in the face of climate change by Aragie, Emerta,Gebretsadik, Yohannes Pdf

The Ethiopian economy relies predominantly on rainfed agriculture for income generation, export earnings, and rural livelihoods. However, the frequency and intensity of extreme ago-climatic events projected by climate scenarios suggest considerable and growing risks from climate change to the country’s agri-food systems and the overall economy. This study assesses the economic impacts of recurrent climate shocks on the Ethiopian economy to 2040. The results indicate that recurrent climate shocks will lead to a reduction in Ethiopia's cumulative GDP from 2020 to 2040 compared to a “no climate change” baseline. Specifically, extreme weather events could cumulatively cost Ethiopia up to 17 percent (or US$ 534.3 billion) in GDP between 2020 and 2040 compared to a no-climate change baseline. The weight of the economic loss is concentrated in the agricultural production sector, with rural households and poorer households in urban areas being worst affected. Strategic investments in irrigation infrastructure and in hydroelectricity generation are found to be effective in mitigating some of the damage caused by recurrent climate variability.

Author : Alhelo, Alzaki,Siddig, Khalid,Kirui, Oliver K.
Publisher : Intl Food Policy Res Inst
Page : 49 pages
File Size : 50,6 Mb
Release : 2023-06-07
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 8210379456XXX

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The architecture of the Sudanese agricultural sector and its contribution to the economy between 1990 and 2021 by Alhelo, Alzaki,Siddig, Khalid,Kirui, Oliver K. Pdf

The paper reviews the performance of the Sudanese agricultural sector over the last three decades (1990 through 2021) and examines the drivers of that performance. Key findings show that the sector’s contribution to gross domestic product was greater during the 1990–1999 period than during the other two decades; agricultural productivity as well was higher in that decade than in the subsequent two decades. The sector has remained a major source of employment and livelihood. During the last decade reviewed (2010–2021), the sector regained its leading position as a generator of foreign currency. Public investment in agriculture and government spending allocated to the sector were lower than in other countries in the region. Political elites have generally lacked commitment to development plans in the sector. Political developments in Sudan have disrupted more recent efforts to revitalize the sector. Climate change, as manifested in rising temperature, declining rainfall, and drought, is a substantial determinant currently affecting the sector. The paper discusses some broad recommendations for improving the performance of the Sudanese agricultural sector.

Author : Olubukola Oluranti Babalola,Ayansina Segun Ayangbenro,Omena Bernard Ojuederie
Publisher : Springer Nature
Page : 499 pages
File Size : 54,5 Mb
Release : 2022-11-16
Category : Technology & Engineering
ISBN : 9783031096143

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Food Security and Safety Volume 2 by Olubukola Oluranti Babalola,Ayansina Segun Ayangbenro,Omena Bernard Ojuederie Pdf

Sustainable food production is a global challenge with respect to climate change and an ever-increasing world population. Conventional crop production using agrochemicals presents human health and environmental challenges. Rising concerns about environmental sustainability have increased attention toward improved, efficient, and sustainable means of crop production. Various strategies are employed in enhancing crop production to adapt and mitigate climate change and ensure food security. The future of food production relies on improving productivity without compromising long-term productivity and environmental sustainability. Feeding the ever-increasing world population would require concerted efforts by all stakeholders to combat the impact of climate change and numerous ecological challenges facing food production. Hence, innovative technologies and methods are indispensable in mitigating the effects on food security. The book looks at the current challenges and solutions, from an African perspective, regarding food safety and health management, food security and nutrition, climate change and sustainable food production, and forest resources and food security. The target audience is scientists, graduate students, researchers, academicians, and professionals in food production for sustainable development and ecosystem management. This book will also be helpful to policymakers and specialists in framing future feasible agro-ecosystem policies.

Author : Ringler, Claudia,Mondal, Md. Hossain Alam,Paulos, Helen Berga,Mirzabaev, Alisher,Breisinger, Clemens,Wiebelt, Manfred,Siddig, Khalid,Villamor, Grace,Zhu, Tingju,Bryan, Elizabeth
Publisher : Intl Food Policy Res Inst
Page : 13 pages
File Size : 50,9 Mb
Release : 2018-12-03
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 8210379456XXX

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Research guide for water-energy-food nexus analysis by Ringler, Claudia,Mondal, Md. Hossain Alam,Paulos, Helen Berga,Mirzabaev, Alisher,Breisinger, Clemens,Wiebelt, Manfred,Siddig, Khalid,Villamor, Grace,Zhu, Tingju,Bryan, Elizabeth Pdf

The project titled “The Water-Energy-Food Nexus: Global, Basin and Local Case Studies of Resource Use Efficiency under Growing Natural Resource Scarcity“ (2015-2018), which was supported by the Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development, Germany, and was undertaken as part of the CGIAR Research Program on Water, Land and Ecosystems. The project set out to develop research methodologies and insights globally as well as for the Eastern Nile Technical Regional Organization (ENTRO) of the Nile Basin Initiative (NBI) and Egypt, Ethiopia and Sudan to support efforts for enhanced water, energy and food security and environmental sustainability. The toolkit describes both qualitative and quantitative methods that have been used in the research project. It is not meant to be an exhaustive list of information and tools related to the analysis of the water, energy and food (WEF) nexus. The overall focus of the tools has been on economic analysis of the linkages across water, energy and food--to complement other studies and method developments that focus on biophysical linkages across the WEF nexus. The toolkit is aimed, primarily, at researchers interested in the analysis of the water, energy and food nexus. However, the studies summarized here also provide insights for practitioners implementing Nexus projects.

Author : Kirui, Oliver K.,Siddig, Khalid,Breisinger, Clemens,Dorosh, Paul A.,Kassim, Yumna
Publisher : Intl Food Policy Res Inst
Page : 34 pages
File Size : 53,7 Mb
Release : 2022-04-04
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 8210379456XXX

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Prioritizing development policy research in Sudan: An innovative approach to guide IFPRI’s Sudan Strategy Support Program by Kirui, Oliver K.,Siddig, Khalid,Breisinger, Clemens,Dorosh, Paul A.,Kassim, Yumna Pdf

This paper presents an innovative approach to prioritizing development policy research in Sudan with the specific objective of informing the research agenda of the Sudan Strategy Support Program (Sudan SSP) of the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). The key steps in this process were: A review of relevant priority setting methods and existing government strategies, Pre-selection of research themes, Selection of national and international experts, Design and conduct priority setting workshop; and Priority matrix construction and paper writing. The paper suggests key research priorities for Sudan, which are both highly relevant to Sudan’s current and future development policy agenda and consistent with IFPRI’s own comparative advantage and strategy. It identifies research areas and topics under five main themes, namely: 1. Agricultural production, 2. Markets and trade, 3. Livelihoods and nutrition, 4. Development strategy and investment planning, and 5. Increasing resilience of farming under growing climate challenges. Tackling the priority research tasks identified in this paper, for these five themes, is expected to help reduce poverty and improve food and nutrition security in Sudan. However, strengthening the links between policy research and decision-making will be crucial to ensure that evidence-based solutions are relevant and have a positive impact on people’s lives.

Author : Jane Kabubo-Mariara
Publisher : World Bank Publications
Page : 40 pages
File Size : 51,7 Mb
Release : 2012
Category : Electronic
ISBN : 8210379456XXX

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The Economic Impact of Climate Change on Kenyan Crop Agriculture: A Ricardian Approach by Jane Kabubo-Mariara Pdf

This paper measures the economic impact of climate on crops in Kenya. The analysis is based on cross-sectional climate, hydrological, soil, and household level data for a sample of 816 households, and uses a seasonal Ricardian model. Estimated marginal impacts of climate variables suggest that global warming is harmful for agricultural productivity and that changes in temperature are much more important than changes in precipitation. This result is confirmed by the predicted impact of various climate change scenarios on agriculture. The results further confirm that the temperature component of global warming is much more important than precipitation. The authors analyze farmers' perceptions of climate variations and their adaptation to these, and also constraints on adaptation mechanisms. The results suggest that farmers in Kenya are aware of short-term climate change, that most of them have noticed an increase in temperatures, and that some have taken adaptive measures.

Author : Assefa M. Melesse,Wossenu Abtew,Gabriel Senay
Publisher : Elsevier
Page : 580 pages
File Size : 44,6 Mb
Release : 2019-07-03
Category : Science
ISBN : 9780128159996

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Extreme Hydrology and Climate Variability by Assefa M. Melesse,Wossenu Abtew,Gabriel Senay Pdf

Extreme Hydrology and Climate Variability: Monitoring, Modelling, Adaptation and Mitigation is a compilation of contributions by experts from around the world who discuss extreme hydrology topics, from monitoring, to modeling and management. With extreme climatic and hydrologic events becoming so frequent, this book is a critical source, adding knowledge to the science of extreme hydrology. Topics covered include hydrometeorology monitoring, climate variability and trends, hydrological variability and trends, landscape dynamics, droughts, flood processes, and extreme events management, adaptation and mitigation. Each of the book's chapters provide background and theoretical foundations followed by approaches used and results of the applied studies. This book will be highly used by water resource managers and extreme event researchers who are interested in understanding the processes and teleconnectivity of large-scale climate dynamics and extreme events, predictability, simulation and intervention measures. Presents datasets used and methods followed to support the findings included, allowing readers to follow these steps in their own research Provides variable methodological approaches, thus giving the reader multiple hydrological modeling information to use in their work Includes a variety of case studies, thus making the context of the book relatable to everyday working situations for those studying extreme hydrology Discusses extreme event management, including adaption and mitigation

Author : David Maddison
Publisher : World Bank Publications
Page : 25 pages
File Size : 51,6 Mb
Release : 2007
Category : Climate change research
ISBN : 8210379456XXX

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The Impact of Climate Change on African Agriculture by David Maddison Pdf

Abstract: This paper uses the Ricardian approach to examine how farmers in 11 countries in Africa have adapted to existing climatic conditions. It then estimates the effects of predicted changes in climate while accounting for whatever farmer adaptation might occur. This study differs from earlier ones by using farmers' own perceptions of the value of their land. Previous research, by contrast, has relied on either observed sale prices or net revenues, sometimes aggregated over geographically large tracts of terrain. The study also makes use of high resolution data describing soil quality and runoff. Furthermore, it tackles the challenges involved in modeling the effect of climate on agriculture in a study that includes countries in the northern and southern hemispheres, as well as the tropics. The study confirms that African agriculture is particularly vulnerable to climate change. Even with perfect adaptation, regional climate change by 2050 is predicted to entail production losses of 19.9 percent for Burkina Faso and 30.5 percent for Niger. By contrast, countries such as Ethiopia and South Africa are hardly affected at all, suffering productivity losses of only 1.3 percent and 3 percent, respectively. The study also confirms the importance of water supplies as measured by runoff, which, being affected by both temperature and precipitation, may itself be highly sensitive to climate change.

Author : Thomas, Timothy S.,Dorosh, Paul A.,Robertson, Richard D.
Publisher : Intl Food Policy Res Inst
Page : 16 pages
File Size : 55,9 Mb
Release : 2019-02-15
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 8210379456XXX

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Climate change impacts on crop yields in Ethiopia by Thomas, Timothy S.,Dorosh, Paul A.,Robertson, Richard D. Pdf

We present results of model simulations of maize, wheat, and sorghum yields in Ethiopia through 2085. The analysis draws on climate outcomes from 32 global climate models and an agronomic crop model to estimate effects on the yields of these cereals of expected higher temperatures and, for most of Ethiopia, increased rainfall. The simulation results suggest that climate change will likely have only relatively small effects on average yields of maize, wheat, and sorghum in Ethiopia up to 2055, as agronomic conditions for cultivation of these crops may actually improve in large parts of the country. Nonetheless, yields will need to increase over time to enable cereal production to keep pace with expected demand growth due to increases in population and per capita incomes. Moreover, even if future changes in climate have only moderate impacts on average crop yields in Ethiopia, there is growing evidence that weather outcomes are likely to become more variable in the future, implying that severe droughts and floods may very well have a greater impact on cereal production in the future than in the past.

Author : Timothy S. Thomas,Khandaker Mainuddin,Catherine Chiang,Aminur Rahman,Anwarul Haque,Nazria Islam,Saad Quasem,Yan Sun
Publisher : Intl Food Policy Res Inst
Page : 76 pages
File Size : 42,9 Mb
Release : 2013-07-29
Category : Social Science
ISBN : 8210379456XXX

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Agriculture and Adaptation in Bangladesh by Timothy S. Thomas,Khandaker Mainuddin,Catherine Chiang,Aminur Rahman,Anwarul Haque,Nazria Islam,Saad Quasem,Yan Sun Pdf

Bangladesh is extremely vulnerable to the impact of climate change because it is a low-lying, flat country subject to both riverine flooding and sea level rise, and because a large portion of its population is dependent on agriculture for its livelihood. The goal of this research was to examine the likely impacts of climate change on agriculture in Bangladesh, and develop recommendations to policymakers to help farmers adapt to the changes. In this study, we use climate data from four general circulation models (GCMs) to evaluate the impact of climate change on agriculture in Bangladesh by 2050. We use the DSSAT (Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer) crop modeling software to evaluate crop yields, first for the 1950 to 2000 period (actual climate) and then for the climates given by the four GCMs for 2050. We evaluate crop yields at 1,789 different points in Bangladesh, using a grid composed of roughly 10 kilometer (km) squares, for 8 different crops in 2000 and 2050. For each crop, we search for the best cultivar (variety) at each square, rather than limiting our analysis to a single variety for all locations. We also search for the best planting month in each square. In addition, we explore potential gains in changing fertilizer levels and in using irrigation to compensate for rainfall changes. This analysis indicates that when practiced together, using cultivars better suited for climate change and adjusting planting dates can lessen the impacts of climate change on yields, especially for rice, and in some cases actually result in higher yields. In addition, the analysis shows that losses in yield due to climate change can be compensated for, for many crops, by increasing the availability of nitrogen in the soil. Moreover, we used a household survey to collect information on the incidence of climatic shocks in the last five years and adaptation options. The survey was conducted from December 2010 to February 2011, covering data from the previous production year. The results confirm that Bangladesh farmers already perceive the impacts of climate change. In particular, the survey results indicate that of all climate change–related shocks, floods, waterlogging, and river erosion caused the largest loss to rice production. Farmers in our survey lost around 12 percent of their harvest, on average, to some kind of shock, with about half of that attributable to flooding-related issues. The second leading cause of rice crop loss was pests, responsible for around 3 percent of production. Taken together, the results indicate that adaptation efforts in Bangladesh should include adjusting planting dates, using improved cultivars better suited for climate change, improving fertilizer application, exploring increased maize production, and bolstering flood and pest protection for farmers.

Author : Anonim
Publisher : World Bank Publications
Page : 30 pages
File Size : 49,7 Mb
Release : 2009
Category : Electronic
ISBN : 8210379456XXX

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A ricardian Analysis of the distribution of climate change impacts on agriculture across agro-ecological zones in africa by Anonim Pdf

Author : Hugh Turral,Jacob J. Burke,Jean-Marc Faurès,Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations
Publisher : Fao
Page : 208 pages
File Size : 47,9 Mb
Release : 2011
Category : Agriculture
ISBN : UIUC:30112100844312

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Climate Change, Water and Food Security by Hugh Turral,Jacob J. Burke,Jean-Marc Faurès,Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations Pdf

The rural poor, who are the most vulnerable, are likely to be disproportionately affected.

Author : Kenneth M. Strzepek,Alyssa McCluskey
Publisher : World Bank Publications
Page : 68 pages
File Size : 46,7 Mb
Release : 2007
Category : Electronic
ISBN : 8210379456XXX

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The Impacts of Climate Change on Regional Water Resources and Agriculture in Africa by Kenneth M. Strzepek,Alyssa McCluskey Pdf

This paper summarizes the methods and findings of the hydrological assessment component of the project studying likely impacts of climate change on water resources and agriculture in Africa. The first phase of the study used a version of a conceptual rainfall-runoff model called WatBal (Water Balance) applied to gridded data to simulate changes in soil moisture and runoff across the whole continent of Africa rather than to any particular catchment or water resource system. The model inputs were the climate variables of the 1961-90 climatology and physiological parameters (such as soil properties and land use) derived from global datasets for each of the 0.5 degree latitude/longitude cells across the continent. The primary model output comprised a time series (monthly time step) of simulated runoff for all the grid cells for each of the districts in the countries of interest. The second phase of the study extended the hydrology analyses to update the above hydroclimatic series to the year 2000 using updated input data. To ascertain the possible impacts of climate change within the districts being investigated this study used synthetic or GCM-based climate change scenarios as input to the WatBal model. The WatBal model was used to determine the impact of these different scenarios on runoff and actual evaporation and hence flow in the districts under study. The generated hydroclimatic series and scenario analyses were used as inputs into various Ricardian regressions in other analyses measuring likely impacts of climate change on the agricultural economies of Africa.