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Cognitive Bias in Fantasy Sports by R.M. Miller Pdf
Book Summary A cognitive bias is a mental process that leads us to make illogical and sometimes irrational decisions. Most of us are unaware of these mental processes, although they are operating constantly. Most of the time, believe it or not, its no big deal. In fact, there is no doubt that cognitive biases still exist because they help us succeed as a species! In this work, you will learn why and how cognitive biases come about as well as why they might just be beneficial from an evolutionary perspective. More importantly, youll also find out how they play into your management of your fantasy sports teams. Spoiler alert: its not all good! From Confirmation Bias to Omission Bias and the Pseudocertainty Effect, plus many more, youll learn how the biases affect your decision-making and what to do to overcome the subtle sabotage your brain may be exerting on your fantasy season.
Fantasy Football for Smart People by Jonathan Bales Pdf
The daily fantasy sports landscape is changing. Predicting player performance is only half the battle; in tournaments, top DFS players are exploiting weaknesses in public psychology to profit big. This requires a fundamental understanding of what drives public opinion-what motivates us to make decisions and where we go wrong-and the ability to accurately forecast how it all affects player ownership in DFS leagues. The Hidden Psychology of Winning DFS takes a two-pronged approach to turning you into a better daily fantasy football player. In the first section, you'll learn how various cognitive biases can shape your beliefs. Why do DFS players overvalue recent performance, overestimate their ability to make accurate predictions, and deal so poorly with risk and uncertainty? More important, how can you benefit from their mistakes? The second section takes a data-driven look at both daily fantasy football tournament ownership and value. Which metrics predict not only which players perform well, but which ones will be popular in tournaments? How much do the Vegas lines matter, when should you value recent production, and how can you find both undervalued and under-owned players at each position? You'll learn specific instructions on how to exploit inefficiencies in others' lineups to give you a leg up on the field. Using historical data to see what actually predicts daily fantasy football value and ownership, The Hidden Psychology of Winning DFS will equip you with the tools you need to leverage weaknesses in the way other players think and act into a major competitive advantage.
Nicholas David Bowman,John S. W. Spinda,Jimmy Sanderson
Author : Nicholas David Bowman,John S. W. Spinda,Jimmy Sanderson Publisher : Lexington Books Page : 329 pages File Size : 49,6 Mb Release : 2016-03-17 Category : Language Arts & Disciplines ISBN : 9781498504898
Fantasy Sports and the Changing Sports Media Industry by Nicholas David Bowman,John S. W. Spinda,Jimmy Sanderson Pdf
This edited collection examines how fantasy sports play has established a prominent and promising foothold in the larger sports ecology. Often considered an isolated activity for the hardcore sports fan, fantasy sports play have since been incorporated into sports broadcasting and editorial coverage, sports marketing and promotions, and even into the very sports themselves with athletes and teams using the activities to draw fans further into the sports experience. This edited collection invites leading scholars and sports professionals from several different fields to share historical and emerging perspectives on the importance of fantasy sports as an artifact of theoretical and empirical importance to larger issues of sport and society. \
The Athletic 2022 Fantasy Football Guide by The Athletic Pdf
The definitive guide for your 2022 fantasy football team from the staff of The Athletic.Whether you're in a keeper, dynasty or SuperFlex league, this comprehensive preview features unmatched insight and analysis from industry leaders Jake Ciely, Brandon Funston, Brandon Marianne Lee, KC Joyner, Nando Di Fino, and the NFL staff at The Athletic.Highlights include award-winning projections for more than 450 players, expert insight from The Athletic's beat writers, comprehensive injury updates, detailed mock drafts, outside-the-box strategies for Dynasty and SuperFlex, and even cognitive science applications for fantasy football that will have you poised to dominate your league.Featuring expert evaluations of hundreds of players, this is a must-have resource for fantasy players and NFL fans.
Baseball, first dubbed the “national pastime” in print in 1856, is the country’s most tradition-bound sport. Despite remaining popular and profitable into the twenty-first century, the game is losing young fans, among African Americans and women as well as white men. Furthermore, baseball’s greatest charm—a clockless suspension of time—is also its greatest liability in a culture of digital distraction. These paradoxes are explored by the historian and passionate baseball fan Susan Jacoby in a book that is both a love letter to the game and a tough-minded analysis of the current challenges to its special position—in reality and myth—in American culture. The concise but wide-ranging analysis moves from the Civil War—when many soldiers played ball in northern and southern prisoner-of-war camps—to interviews with top baseball officials and young men who prefer playing online “fantasy baseball” to attending real games. Revisiting her youthful days of watching televised baseball in her grandfather’s bar, the author links her love of the game with the informal education she received in everything from baseball’s history of racial segregation to pitch location. Jacoby argues forcefully that the major challenge to baseball today is a shortened attention span at odds with a long game in which great hitters fail two out of three times. Without sanitizing this basic problem, Why Baseball Matters remind us that the game has retained its grip on our hearts precisely because it has repeatedly demonstrated the ability to reinvent itself in times of immense social change.
In the spirit of Bringing Down the House and The Wolf of Wall Street, “an engrossing and often hilarious behind-the-scenes look at the characters, compulsions, and chaos inside the fantasy sports gold rush. It’s the perfect meld of a sports and business book, engagingly written like a fun, page-turning novel” (The Wall Street Journal). Daniel Barbarisi quit his job as a New York Yankees beat writer and began a quest to join the top one percent of Daily Fantasy Sports (“DFS”) players, the so-called “sharks,” in hopes to discover the secrets behind this phenomenon—and potentially make some money along the way. DFS is fantasy sports on steroids. It’s the domain of bitter rivals FanDuel and DraftKings, online juggernauts who turned a legal loophole into a billion-dollar industry by allowing sports fans to bet piles of cash constructing fantasy teams. Yet as Barbarisi quickly realizes, what should have been a fun companion to casual sports viewing was instead a ferocious environment infested with sharks, a top tier of pros wielding complex algorithms, drafting hundreds of lineups, and wagering six figures daily as they bludgeon unsuspecting amateur “fish.” Barbarisi embeds himself inside the world of DFS, befriending and joining its rogue’s gallery as he tries to beat them at their own game. In a work equal parts adventure and rigorously reported investigation, Barbarisi wades into this chaotic industry at the very moment its existence is threatened by lawmakers sick of its Wild West atmosphere and pushy advertising. All their money made FanDuel and DraftKings seem invincible; but, as Barbarisi reports, they made plenty of dubious—perhaps even scandalous—moves as they vied for market supremacy. In Dueling with Kings, Barbarisi uncovers the tumultuous inside story of DFS, all while capturing its peculiar cast of characters, from wide-eyed newly minted millionaires, to sun-starved math geeks, to bros living an endless frat party of keggers and Playboy Bunnies. Can he outwit them all and make it to the top?
The Process - 2020 Edition by Tanner Bell,Jeff Zimmerman Pdf
The Process - 2020 Edition The Process - Integrating Valuations and Biases into a Winning Fantasy Baseball Formula (thefantasybaseballprocess.com) is written by Jeff Zimmerman (Rotographs, Sportsline, two-time Tout Wars champion) and Tanner Bell (SmartFantasyBaseball.com, author of Using Standing Gain Points to Rank and Value Fantasy Baseball Players). The Process contains over 300 detailed pages on how to run a fantasy baseball team, including over 50 new pages of groundbreaking studies and research, over 50 additional pages of stats, projections, and useful information for the 2020 season. Some of the highlights are: Detailed analysis of how to use industry projections and when they should be modified. How to use valuation procedures to turn projections into rankings and dollar values. Take advantage of industry biases and norms to pull as much value out of a draft and auction. A groundbreaking study on when breakouts happen and how owners should take advantage of this information. Pages of hints and secrets to accumulate extra stats during the season. Basic Steamer hitter, starter, and reliever projections Standings gain points equations for various league sizes (12- and 15-team) and formats (average and OBP leagues, AL- or NL-only) from major industry leagues (NFBC, Tout Wars). Average league standings for the same leagues to help owners know what statistics are required to win a league and to help plan category targets for 2020. What Are Others Saying About the Book? What lies in these pages is the most thorough tackling of the larger questions of rotisserie baseball that you'll find anywhere in this world (physical or digital). Jeff and Tanner examine concepts such as cognitive biases and measurement of intrinsic value, they dig into the trick, inexact science of FAAB, and they also introduce new ideas and theories. ~ Clay Link, Rotowire, 2018 TGFBI Champion After reading 'The Process', I realize I will never write a book about fantasy baseball because Jeff Zimmerman and Tanner Bell wrote the book I would have written, only way better. ~ Rob Silver, NFBC Main Event Overall Champion Most books just tell you how the author won his leagues. What makes Tanner Bell and Jeff Zimmerman's effort so epic is that it not only shows their work in every step of their own methods, it gives the reader a great sense of how they could innovate further, and how they could build their own league-winning process. This is a must-read for any fantasy baseball lover. ~ Eno Sarris, The Athletic This is undoubtedly the most comprehensive fantasy baseball guide I have ever come across. Jeff and Tanner are two of the smartest minds in the industry and are part of the few I make sure to read everything from. 'The Process' will provide you with long-term value and make you a better fantasy baseball player not just for the upcoming season, but for many seasons to come. ~ Mike Podhorzer, Fangraphs, Projecting X 2.0, Former Tout Wars Champion 'The Process' is one of the smartest, most comprehensive fantasy baseball books to hit the market in years. If you're a valuation fanatic like I am, you'll enjoy and devour every page of this book. 'The Process' is an essential part of any fantasy player's bookshelf. ~ Mike Gianella, Baseball Prospectus, Former Tout Wars and LABR Champion
The Skeptic's Guide to Sports Science by Nicholas B. Tiller Pdf
The global health and fitness industry is worth an estimated $4 trillion. We spend $90 billion each year on health club memberships and $100 billion each year on dietary supplements. In such an industrial climate, lax regulations on the products we are sold (supplements, fad-diets, training programs, gadgets, and garments) result in marketing campaigns underpinned by strong claims and weak evidence. Moreover, our critical faculties are ill-suited to a culture characterized by fake news, social media, misinformation, and bad science. We have become walking, talking prey to 21st-Century Snake Oil salesmen. In The Skeptic’s Guide to Sports Science, Nicholas B. Tiller confronts the claims behind the products and the evidence behind the claims. The author discusses what might be wrong with the sales pitch, the glossy magazine advert, and the celebrity endorsements that our heuristically-wired brains find so innately attractive. Tiller also explores the appeal of the one quick fix, the fallacious arguments that are a mainstay of product advertising, and the critical steps we must take in retraining our minds to navigate the pitfalls of the modern consumerist culture. This informative and accessible volume pulls no punches in scrutinizing the plausibility of, and evidence for, the most popular sports products and practices on the market. Readers are encouraged to confront their conceptualizations of the industry and, by the book’s end, they will have acquired the skills necessary to independently judge the effectiveness of sports-related products. This treatise on the commercialization of science in sport and exercise is a must-read for exercisers, athletes, students, and practitioners who hope to retain their intellectual integrity in a lucrative health and fitness industry that is spiraling out-of-control.
The Process - 2019 Edition by Tanner Bell,Jeff Zimmerman Pdf
The Process - 2019 Edition The Process - Integrating Valuations and Biases into a Winning Fantasy Baseball Formula is written by Jeff Zimmerman (Rotographs, Sportsline, two-time Tout Wars champion) and Tanner Bell (SmartFantasyBaseball.com, author of Using Standing Gain Points to Rank and Value Fantasy Baseball Players). The Process contains over 200 detailed pages on how to run a fantasy baseball team and over 50 additional pages of stats, projections, and useful information for the 2019 season. Some of the highlights are: Detailed analysis of how to use industry projections and when they should be modified. How to use the three main valuation procedures (standings gain points, z-scores, percentage valuation) to turn projections into rankings and dollar values. Take advantage of industry biases and norms to pull as much value out of a draft and auction. A groundbreaking study on when breakouts happen and how owners should take advantage of this information. Pages of hints and secrets to accumulate standing gains during the season. How to notice and use cognitive biases against opponents. Basic Steamer projections with additional projections for pitchers just starting or relieving, hitter handedness splits, and how Colorado pitchers perform on the road. Standings gain points equations for various league sizes (12- and 15-team) and formats (average and OBP leagues, AL- or NL-only) from major industry leagues (NFBC, Tout Wars, and The Great Fantasy Baseball Invitational). Average league standings for the same league sizes and formats to help owners know what statistics are required to win a league and to help plan category targets for 2019. What Are Others Saying About the Book? After reading ''The Process'', I realize I will never write a book about fantasy baseball because Jeff Zimmerman and Tanner Bell wrote the book I would have written, only way better. ~ Rob Silver, NFBC Main Event Overall Champion There are two paths toward sustainable fantasy baseball success: 1) You have preternatural talent in scouting/projecting talent or 2) You build, maintain, and refine a winning process to maximize all the little advantages. I employ the latter path. I am not sure whether to be mad at Jeff Zimmerman and Tanner Bell for providing a cheat code to years of learnings/struggles or pleased that they will create smarter fantasy baseballers to better utilize Razzball tools/projections. I will go with the latter to increase the changes they use my blurb. ~ Rudy Gamble, Razzball, Two-time Tout Wars Champion Most books just tell you how the author won his leagues. What makes Tanner Bell and Jeff Zimmerman''s effort so epic is that it not only shows their work in every step of their own methods, it gives the reader a great sense of how they could innovate further, and how they could build their own league-winning process. This is a must-read for any fantasy baseaball lover. ~ Eno Sarris, The Athletic This is undoubtedly the most comprehensive fantasy baseball guide I have ever come across. Jeff and Tanner are two of the smartest minds in the industry and are part of the few I make sure to read everything from. ''The Process'' will provide you with long-term value and make you a better fantasy baseball player not just for the upcoming season, but for many seasons to come. ~ Mike Podhorzer, Fangraphs, Projecting X 2.0, Former Tout Wars Champion ''The Process'' is one of the smartest, most comprehensive fantasy baseball books to hit the market in years. If you''re a valuation fanatic like I am, you''ll enjoy and devour every page of this book. ''The Process'' is an essential part of any fantasy player''s bookshelf. ~ Mike Gianella, Baseball Prospectus, Former Tout Wars and LABR Champion
As part of the notorious MIT Team depicted in Ben Mezrich's now classic Bringing Down the House, Jeff Ma used math and statistics to master the game of blackjack and reap handsome rewards at casinos. Years later, Ma has inspired not only a bestselling novel and hit movie, but has also started three different companies—the latest of which, Citizen Sports, is an innovative marriage of sports, betting, and digital technology—and launched a successful corporate speaking career. The House Advantage reveals Ma's cutting-edge mathematical insights into the world of statistics and makes them applicable to a wide business audience. He argues that numbers are the key to analyzing nearly everything in the world of business, from how to spot and profit from global market inefficiencies to having multiple backup plans in anticipation of every probability. Ma's stories and business lessons are as intriguing as they are universally applicable.
The Believing Brain is bestselling author Michael Shermer's comprehensive and provocative theory on how beliefs are born, formed, reinforced, challenged, changed, and extinguished. In this work synthesizing thirty years of research, psychologist, historian of science, and the world's best-known skeptic Michael Shermer upends the traditional thinking about how humans form beliefs about the world. Simply put, beliefs come first and explanations for beliefs follow. The brain, Shermer argues, is a belief engine. From sensory data flowing in through the senses, the brain naturally begins to look for and find patterns, and then infuses those patterns with meaning. Our brains connect the dots of our world into meaningful patterns that explain why things happen, and these patterns become beliefs. Once beliefs are formed the brain begins to look for and find confirmatory evidence in support of those beliefs, which accelerates the process of reinforcing them, and round and round the process goes in a positive-feedback loop of belief confirmation. Shermer outlines the numerous cognitive tools our brains engage to reinforce our beliefs as truths. Interlaced with his theory of belief, Shermer provides countless real-world examples of how this process operates, from politics, economics, and religion to conspiracy theories, the supernatural, and the paranormal. Ultimately, he demonstrates why science is the best tool ever devised to determine whether or not a belief matches reality.
Fantasy Football for Smart People by Jonathan Bales Pdf
"Fantasy Football for Smart People: How to Win at Daily Fantasy Sports" is a data-driven guide to becoming a profitable daily fantasy player. Built around daily fantasy football but applicable to all sports, the book examines advanced DFS strategies, providing data on what's actually winning leagues. Gain access to the latest trends and numbers you need to give you a serious competitive edge in the world of daily fantasy sports."How to Win at Daily Fantasy Sports" brings "Moneyball" to daily fantasy football, applying a scientific approach to the game. The book will teach you:* How to properly allocate salary cap* Which lineup combinations are most optimal* How to use a contrarian strategy to win tournaments* Which positions/players to use in the flex* How to convert your season-long skill set into DFS success* A whole lot moreNo more guessing or making decisions based on conventional wisdom. "How to Win at Daily Fantasy Sports" provides the mathematical and game-theory-driven foundation you need to become a truly long-term profitable daily fantasy sports player.
A Cognitive Psychology of Mass Communication by Richard Jackson Harris,Fred W. Sanborn Pdf
In this fifth edition of A Cognitive Psychology of Mass Communication, author Richard Jackson Harris continues his examination of how our experiences with media affect the way we acquire knowledge about the world, and how this knowledge influences our attitudes and behavior. Presenting theories from psychology and communication along with reviews of the corresponding research, this text covers a wide variety of media and media issues, ranging from the commonly discussed topics – sex, violence, advertising – to lesser-studied topics, such as values, sports, and entertainment education. The fifth and fully updated edition offers: highly accessible and engaging writing contemporary references to all types of media familiar to students substantial discussion of theories and research, including interpretations of original research studies a balanced approach to covering the breadth and depth of the subject discussion of work from both psychology and media disciplines. The text is appropriate for Media Effects, Media & Society, and Psychology of Mass Media coursework, as it examines the effects of mass media on human cognitions, attitudes, and behaviors through empirical social science research; teaches students how to examine and evaluate mediated messages; and includes mass communication research, theory and analysis.
Author : Andy Clark Publisher : Oxford University Press, USA Page : 425 pages File Size : 50,6 Mb Release : 2016 Category : Medical ISBN : 9780190217013
This title brings together work on embodiment, action, and the predictive mind. At the core is the vision of human minds as prediction machines - devices that constantly try to stay one step ahead of the breaking waves of sensory stimulation, by actively predicting the incoming flow. In every situation we encounter, that complex prediction machinery is already buzzing, proactively trying to anticipate the sensory barrage. The book shows in detail how this strange but potent strategy of self-anticipation ushers perception, understanding, and imagination simultaneously onto the cognitive stage.
