Commodity Price Volatility And The Sources Of Growth

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Commodity Price Volatility and the Sources of Growth

International Monetary Fund
Commodity Price Volatility and the Sources of Growth Book PDF

Author : International Monetary Fund
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 45 pages
File Size : 54,7 Mb
Release : 2012-01-01
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781463954765

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Commodity Price Volatility and the Sources of Growth by International Monetary Fund Pdf

This paper studies the impact of the level and volatility of the commodity terms of trade on economic growth, as well as on the three main growth channels: total factor productivity, physical capital accumulation, and human capital acquisition. We use the standard system GMM approach as well as a cross-sectionally augmented version of the pooled mean group (CPMG) methodology of Pesaran et al. (1999) for estimation. The latter takes account of cross-country heterogeneity and cross-sectional dependence, while the former controls for biases associated with simultaneity and unobserved country-specific effects. Using both annual data for 1970-2007 and five-year non-overlapping observations, we find that while commodity terms of trade growth enhances real output per capita, volatility exerts a negative impact on economic growth operating mainly through lower accumulation of physical capital. Our results indicate that the negative growth effects of commodity terms of trade volatility offset the positive impact of commodity booms; and export diversification of primary commodity abundant countries contribute to faster growth. Therefore, we argue that volatility, rather than abundance per se, drives the "resource curse" paradox.

Trading on Their Terms? Commodity Exporters in the Aftermath of the Commodity Boom

Aqib Aslam,Samya Beidas-Strom,Mr.Rudolfs Bems,Oya Celasun,Sinem Kiliç Çelik,Zsoka Koczan
Trading on Their Terms Commodity Exporters in the Aftermath of the Commodity Boom Book PDF

Author : Aqib Aslam,Samya Beidas-Strom,Mr.Rudolfs Bems,Oya Celasun,Sinem Kiliç Çelik,Zsoka Koczan
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 49 pages
File Size : 54,6 Mb
Release : 2016-02-15
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781498338158

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Trading on Their Terms? Commodity Exporters in the Aftermath of the Commodity Boom by Aqib Aslam,Samya Beidas-Strom,Mr.Rudolfs Bems,Oya Celasun,Sinem Kiliç Çelik,Zsoka Koczan Pdf

Commodity prices have declined sharply over the past three years, and output growth has slowed considerably among countries that are net exporters of commodities. A critical question for policy makers in these economies is whether commodity windfalls influence potential output. Our analysis suggests that both actual and potential output move together with commodity terms of trade, but that actual output comoves twice as strongly as potential output. The weak commodity price outlook is estimated to subtract 1 to 21⁄4 percentage points from actual output growth annually on average during 2015-17. The forecast drag on potential output is about one-third of that for actual output.

Commodity Price Movements and Banking Crises

Mr.Markus Eberhardt,Andrea Presbitero
Commodity Price Movements and Banking Crises Book PDF

Author : Mr.Markus Eberhardt,Andrea Presbitero
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 53 pages
File Size : 48,9 Mb
Release : 2018-07-06
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781484367827

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Commodity Price Movements and Banking Crises by Mr.Markus Eberhardt,Andrea Presbitero Pdf

We develop an empirical model to predict banking crises in a sample of 60 low-income countries (LICs) over the 1981-2015 period. Given the recent emergence of financial sector stress associated with low commodity prices in several LICs, we assign price movements in primary commodities a key role in our model. Accounting for changes in commodity prices significantly increases the predictive power of the model. The commodity price effect is economically substantial and robust to the inclusion of a wide array of potential drivers of banking crises. We confirm that net capital inflows increase the likelihood of a crisis; however, in contrast to recent findings for advanced and emerging economies, credit growth and capital flow surges play no significant role in predicting banking crises in LICs.

The Economics of Food Price Volatility

Jean-Paul Chavas,David Hummels,Brian D. Wright
The Economics of Food Price Volatility Book PDF

Author : Jean-Paul Chavas,David Hummels,Brian D. Wright
Publisher : University of Chicago Press
Page : 394 pages
File Size : 45,8 Mb
Release : 2014-10-14
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9780226128924

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The Economics of Food Price Volatility by Jean-Paul Chavas,David Hummels,Brian D. Wright Pdf

"The conference was organized by the three editors of this book and took place on August 15-16, 2012 in Seattle."--Preface.

Commodity Price Volatility and the Sources of Growth

International Monetary Fund
Commodity Price Volatility and the Sources of Growth Book PDF

Author : International Monetary Fund
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 45 pages
File Size : 53,5 Mb
Release : 2012-01-01
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781463931179

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Commodity Price Volatility and the Sources of Growth by International Monetary Fund Pdf

This paper studies the impact of the level and volatility of the commodity terms of trade on economic growth, as well as on the three main growth channels: total factor productivity, physical capital accumulation, and human capital acquisition. We use the standard system GMM approach as well as a cross-sectionally augmented version of the pooled mean group (CPMG) methodology of Pesaran et al. (1999) for estimation. The latter takes account of cross-country heterogeneity and cross-sectional dependence, while the former controls for biases associated with simultaneity and unobserved country-specific effects. Using both annual data for 1970-2007 and five-year non-overlapping observations, we find that while commodity terms of trade growth enhances real output per capita, volatility exerts a negative impact on economic growth operating mainly through lower accumulation of physical capital. Our results indicate that the negative growth effects of commodity terms of trade volatility offset the positive impact of commodity booms; and export diversification of primary commodity abundant countries contribute to faster growth. Therefore, we argue that volatility, rather than abundance per se, drives the "resource curse" paradox.

Food Price Volatility and Its Implications for Food Security and Policy

Matthias Kalkuhl,Joachim von Braun,Maximo Torero
Food Price Volatility and Its Implications for Food Security and Policy Book PDF

Author : Matthias Kalkuhl,Joachim von Braun,Maximo Torero
Publisher : Springer
Page : 626 pages
File Size : 48,8 Mb
Release : 2016-04-12
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9783319282015

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Food Price Volatility and Its Implications for Food Security and Policy by Matthias Kalkuhl,Joachim von Braun,Maximo Torero Pdf

This book provides fresh insights into concepts, methods and new research findings on the causes of excessive food price volatility. It also discusses the implications for food security and policy responses to mitigate excessive volatility. The approaches applied by the contributors range from on-the-ground surveys, to panel econometrics and innovative high-frequency time series analysis as well as computational economics methods. It offers policy analysts and decision-makers guidance on dealing with extreme volatility.

The Myth of Comoving Commodity Prices

Mr.Paul Cashin,Mr.C. John McDermott,Mr.Alasdair Scott
The Myth of Comoving Commodity Prices Book PDF

Author : Mr.Paul Cashin,Mr.C. John McDermott,Mr.Alasdair Scott
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 21 pages
File Size : 54,7 Mb
Release : 1999-12-01
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781451858327

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The Myth of Comoving Commodity Prices by Mr.Paul Cashin,Mr.C. John McDermott,Mr.Alasdair Scott Pdf

There is a common perception that the prices of unrelated commodities move together. This paper re-examines this notion, using a measure of comovement of economic time series called concordance. Concordance measures the proportion of time that the prices of two commodities are concurrently in the same boom period or same slump period. Using data on the prices of several unrelated commodities, the paper finds no evidence of comovement in commodity prices. The results carry an important policy implication, as the study provides no support for earlier claims of irrational trading behavior by participants in world commodity markets.

Commodity Price Dynamics

Craig Pirrong
Commodity Price Dynamics Book PDF

Author : Craig Pirrong
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
Page : 238 pages
File Size : 43,9 Mb
Release : 2011-10-31
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781139501972

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Commodity Price Dynamics by Craig Pirrong Pdf

Commodities have become an important component of many investors' portfolios and the focus of much political controversy over the past decade. This book utilizes structural models to provide a better understanding of how commodities' prices behave and what drives them. It exploits differences across commodities and examines a variety of predictions of the models to identify where they work and where they fail. The findings of the analysis are useful to scholars, traders and policy makers who want to better understand often puzzling - and extreme - movements in the prices of commodities from aluminium to oil to soybeans to zinc.

Commodity Prices and Markets

Takatoshi Ito,Andrew K. Rose
Commodity Prices and Markets Book PDF

Author : Takatoshi Ito,Andrew K. Rose
Publisher : University of Chicago Press
Page : 346 pages
File Size : 50,8 Mb
Release : 2011-03
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9780226386898

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Commodity Prices and Markets by Takatoshi Ito,Andrew K. Rose Pdf

Fluctuations of commodity prices, most notably of oil, capture considerable attention and have been tied to important economic effects. This book advances our understanding of the consequences of these fluctuations, providing both general analysis and a particular focus on the countries of the Pacific Rim.

World Economic Outlook, April 2012

International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
World Economic Outlook April 2012 Book PDF

Author : International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 299 pages
File Size : 44,8 Mb
Release : 2012-04-17
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781475507034

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World Economic Outlook, April 2012 by International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. Pdf

The April 2012 issue of the World Economic Outlook assesses the prospects for the global economy, which has gradually strengthened after a major setback during 2011. The threat of a sharp global slowdown eased with improved activity in the United States and better policies in the euro area. Weak recovery will likely resume in the major advanced economies, and activity will remain relatively solid in most emerging and developing economies. However, recent improvements are very fragile. Policymakers must calibrate policies to support growth in the near term and must implement fundamental changes to achieve healthy growth in the medium term. Chapter 3 examines how policies directed at real estate markets can accelerate the improvement of household balance sheets and thus support otherwise anemic consumption. Chapter 4 examines how swings in commodity prices affect commodity-exporting economies, many of which have experienced a decade of good growth. With commodity prices unlikely to continue growing at the recent elevated pace, however, these economies may have to adapt their fiscal and other policies to lower potential output growth in the future.

Commodity Price Volatility and Inclusive Growth in Low-Income Countries

Mr.Rabah Arezki,Ms.Catherine A. Pattillo,Mr.Marc Quintyn,Min Zhu
Commodity Price Volatility and Inclusive Growth in Low Income Countries Book PDF

Author : Mr.Rabah Arezki,Ms.Catherine A. Pattillo,Mr.Marc Quintyn,Min Zhu
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 408 pages
File Size : 49,6 Mb
Release : 2012-10-24
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781475545197

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Commodity Price Volatility and Inclusive Growth in Low-Income Countries by Mr.Rabah Arezki,Ms.Catherine A. Pattillo,Mr.Marc Quintyn,Min Zhu Pdf

In the years following the global financial crisis, many low-income countries experienced rapid recovery and strong economic growth. However, many are now facing enormous difficulties because of rapidly rising food and fuel prices, with the threat of millions of people being pushed into poverty around the globe. The risk of continued food price volatility is a systemic challenge, and a failure in one country has been shown to have a profound impact on entire regions. This volume addresses the challenges of commodity price volatility for low-income countries and explores some macroeconomic policy options for responding to commodity price shocks. The book then looks at inclusive growth policies to address inequality in commodity-exporting countries, particularly natural resource rich countries. Perspectives from the Middle East and North Africa, sub-Saharan Africa, emerging Asia, and Mexico are presented and, finally, the role of the international donor community is examined. This volume is a must read for policymakers everywhere, from those in advanced, donor countries to those in countries with the poorest and most vulnerable populations.

After the Boom–Commodity Prices and Economic Growth in Latin America and the Caribbean

Bertrand Gruss
After the Boom Commodity Prices and Economic Growth in Latin America and the Caribbean Book PDF

Author : Bertrand Gruss
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 43 pages
File Size : 40,8 Mb
Release : 2014-08-14
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781498363518

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After the Boom–Commodity Prices and Economic Growth in Latin America and the Caribbean by Bertrand Gruss Pdf

After skyrocketing over the past decade, commodity prices have remained stable or eased somewhat since mid-2011—and most projections suggest they are not likely to resume the upward trend observed in the last decade. This paper analyzes what this turn in the commodity price cycle may imply for output growth in Latin America and the Caribbean. The analysis suggests that growth in the years ahead for the average commodity exporter in the region could be significantly lower than during the commodity boom, even if commodity prices were to remain stable at their current still-high levels. Slower-than-expected growth in China represents a key downside risk. The results caution against trying to offset the current economic slowdown with demand-side stimulus and underscore the need for ambitious structural reforms to secure strong growth over the medium term.

World Economic Outlook, October 2015

International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
World Economic Outlook October 2015 Book PDF

Author : International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 228 pages
File Size : 52,5 Mb
Release : 2015-10-06
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781513515397

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World Economic Outlook, October 2015 by International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. Pdf

This issue discusses a number of factors affecting global growth, as well as growth prospects across the world’s main countries and regions. It assesses the ongoing recovery from the global financial crisis in advanced and emerging market economies and evaluates risks, both upside and downside, including those associated with commodity prices, currency fluctuations, and financial market volatility. A special feature examines in detail causes and implications of the recent commodity price downturn; analytical chapters look at the effects of commodity windfalls on potential output and of exchange rate movements on trade.

Global Commodity Markets and Development Economics

Stephan Pfaffenzeller
Global Commodity Markets and Development Economics Book PDF

Author : Stephan Pfaffenzeller
Publisher : Routledge
Page : 197 pages
File Size : 50,7 Mb
Release : 2018-01-29
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781317483601

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Global Commodity Markets and Development Economics by Stephan Pfaffenzeller Pdf

The early 21st century has seen a prolonged price boom in non-fuel commodities, coupled with a volatile performance in fuel prices. This new collection presents the latest research on commodity prices and economic development in the context of this changing globalized economy. Global Commodity Markets and Development Economics brings together analyses from a number of perspectives in order to explore commodity price developments. Chapters explore long term commodity trends, the evolution of relative price developments, the relationship of the domestic commodity sector with global supply chains, agri-food prices, and the role of oil markets in the global economy. Through considering a diverse range of countries including China, Russia and the United States, the authors examine key fuel and non-fuel commodity markets and offer a window into important trends and developments. This book will be relevant to those with an interest in development economics, international economics and energy markets.

Natural Resources Utilization in China

Malin Song,Tao Ding,Jiandong Chen
Natural Resources Utilization in China Book PDF

Author : Malin Song,Tao Ding,Jiandong Chen
Publisher : Springer Nature
Page : 336 pages
File Size : 54,9 Mb
Release : 2023-09-11
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 9789819949816

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Natural Resources Utilization in China by Malin Song,Tao Ding,Jiandong Chen Pdf

This book focuses on the evaluation, coordination, and effects of China’s natural resource utilization. By adopting both quantitative and qualitative analyses, this book objectively evaluates the spatial distribution characteristics and coupling relationship of China’s natural resource utilization based on the status quo and prominent problems during resource utilization. Moreover, the environmental, economic, and price fluctuation effects of China’s natural resource utilization are discussed. Finally, current policy systems for efficient utilization of natural resources in China and abroad are provided, which suggest a way for China to achieve efficient utilization of natural resources through an appropriate policy mechanism. This book aims to seek the balance the utilization of natural resources and sustainable development in China. It puts forward a new paradigm of natural resource utilization by incorporating the efficiency evaluation, coordination measures, and effect mechanisms of different kinds of natural resources. The evaluation system and related research methods for the efficient utilization of natural resources are very mature, laying a foundation for the development of this book’s content. As the conservation of natural resources is widely accepted, this book helps readers understand how to achieve efficient natural resource utilization in China. Meanwhile, the study of resource utilization in China can provide insights for other countries.