Crisis Deterrence In The Taiwan Strait

Author : Douglas McCready
Publisher : Strategic Studies Institute U. S. Army War College
Page : 56 pages
File Size : 55,8 Mb
Release : 2003
Category : History
ISBN : OSU:32435070928890

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Crisis Deterrence in the Taiwan Strait by Douglas McCready Pdf

For more than 50 years, Taiwan's unresolved international status has been the cause of repeated crises in East Asia. While the parties involved could be willing to live with the status quo, the domestic political transformation of Taiwan has called the status quo into question. China, Taiwan, the United States, and Japan have national interests in how the conflict is resolved, and these interests will be difficult to reconcile. By conventional measures, China cannot gain Taiwan by force before the end of this decade. Chinese leaders believe that, b y using asymmetrical means, they will be able to overcome the military advantage of the United States and Taiwan. While the United States will be able to delay Chinese action against Taiwan, it is unlikely to be successful at long-term deterrence. Deterrence, as used against the Soviet Union during the Cold War, will not be effective with China without significant modification. The cultural divide affects not only deterrence theory, but also how China and the United States understand and communicate with each other. Crisis deterrence in the Taiwan Strait is unlikely to succeed due to conflicting national interests and several crucial mutual misperceptions.

Author : Parris H. Chang,Martin L. Lasater
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 224 pages
File Size : 44,5 Mb
Release : 1993
Category : China
ISBN : UCSD:31822018760769

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If China Crosses the Taiwan Strait by Parris H. Chang,Martin L. Lasater Pdf

This work is an in-depth study of the threat posed by the Peoples' Republic of China to Taiwan's security and the probable international response in case of a conflict in the Taiwan Strait. Contents: Beijing's Relations with Taiwan, Parris H. Chang; The Use of Military Force Against Taiwan: Potential PRC Scenarios, Paul H.B. Godwin; U.S. Reactions to the PRC Use of Force Against Taiwan, Mark S. Pratt; International Legal Implications of a PRC Use of Military Force Against Taiwan, David J. Scheffer; The International Response, Harvey J. Feldman; Asian Responses to Chinese Pressures on Taiwan, Paul H. Kreisberg; The U.S. and the Changing East Asian Order: Implications for Taiwan's Ability to Deter Possible Threats from the Mainland, Robert G. Sutter; International Reactions and Responses to PRC Uses of Force Against Taiwan, Vernon V. Aspaturian; Principles of Deterrence in the Taiwan Strait, Martin L. Lasater. Co-published with the Center for East Asian Studies.

Author : Abram N. Shulsky
Publisher : Rand Corporation
Page : 85 pages
File Size : 47,5 Mb
Release : 2000
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 0833028537

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Deterrence Theory and Chinese Behavior by Abram N. Shulsky Pdf

China's recent reforms have led to unprecedented economic growth; if this continues, China will be able to turn its great potential power into actual power. The result could be, in the very long term, the rise of China as a rival to the United States as the world's predominant power; in the nearer term, China could become a significant rival in the East Asian region. In this context, the issue for U.S. policy is how to handle a rising power, a problem that predominant powers have faced many times throughout history. It is the contention of this report that the future Sino-U.S. context will illustrate many of the problems of deterrence theory that have been discussed in recent decades; deterrence theory will be, in general, more difficult to apply than it was in the U.S.-Soviet Cold War context. The key may be to seek nonmilitary means of deterrence, i.e., diplomatic ways to manipulate the tension to China's disadvantage.

Author : Michael D. Swaine,Andrew N. D. Yang,Evan S. Medeiros
Publisher : Carnegie Endowment for Interna
Page : 0 pages
File Size : 54,6 Mb
Release : 2007
Category : Technology & Engineering
ISBN : 0870032380

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Assessing the Threat by Michael D. Swaine,Andrew N. D. Yang,Evan S. Medeiros Pdf

Since at least the early 1950s, the entire Asia-Pacific region has struggled with the complicated and complex relationship between China and Taiwan--today the Taiwan question is considered a potential flashpoint for a much larger international conflict. Bringing together experts from the United States and Taiwan, Assessing the Threat provides a comprehensive look at the dangers of military escalation in the Taiwan Strait, the latest advances in capabilities of the People's Liberation Army, and China's security relationship with the United States and the Asia-Pacific. There is increasing concern that Beijing is steadily shifting the balance of power across the Taiwan Strait in its favor. Recent advances in Chinese air and naval power, along with changes in PLA doctrine, have the potential to weaken deterrence and destabilize the cross-strait military balance. At this critical juncture, there is not question that this issue requires sustained, detailed analysis and that many measures can and should be taken to reduce the threat of conflict between China, Taiwan, and the United States. Assessing the threat offers such analysis as well as concrete suggestions and crisis management practices for government and military leaders in Washington, D.C., Beijing, and Taipei.

Author : Shu Guang Zhang
Publisher : Cornell University Press
Page : 328 pages
File Size : 49,8 Mb
Release : 2019-06-30
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 9781501738135

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Deterrence and Strategic Culture by Shu Guang Zhang Pdf

Does strategic thinking on the question of deterrence vary between cultures? Should practitioners assume a common understanding of deterrence regardless of national and cultural differences? Shu Guang Zhang takes on these questions by exploring Sino-American confrontations between 1949 and 1958. Zhang draws on recently declassified U.S. documents and previously inaccessible Chinese Communist Party records to demonstrate that the Chinese and the Americans had vastly different assessments of each other's intentions, interests, threats, strengths, and policies during this period.

Author : Michael J. Mazarr,Nathan Beauchamp-Mustafaga,Timothy R. Heath,Derek Eaton
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 110 pages
File Size : 47,8 Mb
Release : 2021-04-19
Category : History
ISBN : 1977404006

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What Deters and Why by Michael J. Mazarr,Nathan Beauchamp-Mustafaga,Timothy R. Heath,Derek Eaton Pdf

Foundations for the Analysis and OUtline of the Report -- The State of Deterrrence in Korea : North Korea's Motivation ; Clarity of the U.S. Deterrence Message ; Credibility of the U.S. Deterrence Message ; Conclusion -- The State of Deterrence in Taiwan : China's Motivation ; Clarity of the U.S. Deterrence Message ; Credibility of the U.S. deterrence Message ; Conclusion -- Conclusions and Implications for the U.S. Army : Deterrence in Korea ; Deterrence in Taiwan -- Appendix ; U.S. Deterrence of China in Three Taiwan elections.

Author : Robert Blackwill,Philip Zelikow
Publisher : Council on Foreign Relations Press
Page : 102 pages
File Size : 55,5 Mb
Release : 2021-02-11
Category : Electronic
ISBN : 0876092830

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The United States, China, and Taiwan by Robert Blackwill,Philip Zelikow Pdf

Taiwan "is becoming the most dangerous flash point in the world for a possible war that involves the United States, China, and probably other major powers," warn Robert D. Blackwill, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) Henry A. Kissinger senior fellow for U.S. foreign policy, and Philip Zelikow, University of Virginia White Burkett Miller professor of history. In a new Council Special Report, The United States, China, and Taiwan: A Strategy to Prevent War, the authors argue that the United States should change and clarify its strategy to prevent war over Taiwan. "The U.S. strategic objective regarding Taiwan should be to preserve its political and economic autonomy, its dynamism as a free society, and U.S.-allied deterrence-without triggering a Chinese attack on Taiwan." "We do not think it is politically or militarily realistic to count on a U.S. military defeat of various kinds of Chinese assaults on Taiwan, uncoordinated with allies. Nor is it realistic to presume that, after such a frustrating clash, the United States would or should simply escalate to some sort of wide-scale war against China with comprehensive blockades or strikes against targets on the Chinese mainland." "If U.S. campaign plans postulate such unrealistic scenarios," the authors add, "they will likely be rejected by an American president and by the U.S. Congress." But, they observe, "the resulting U.S. paralysis would not be the result of presidential weakness or timidity. It might arise because the most powerful country in the world did not have credible options prepared for the most dangerous military crisis looming in front of it." Proposing "a realistic strategic objective for Taiwan, and the associated policy prescriptions, to sustain the political balance that has kept the peace for the last fifty years," the authors urge the Joe Biden administration to affirm that it is not trying to change Taiwan's status; work with its allies, especially Japan, to prepare new plans that could challenge Chinese military moves against Taiwan and help Taiwan defend itself, yet put the burden of widening a war on China; and visibly plan, beforehand, for the disruption and mobilization that could follow a wider war, but without assuming that such a war would or should escalate to the Chinese, Japanese, or American homelands. "The horrendous global consequences of a war between the United States and China, most likely over Taiwan, should preoccupy the Biden team, beginning with the president," the authors conclude.

Author : U. S. Military,Department of Defense (DoD),U. S. Government
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 274 pages
File Size : 47,5 Mb
Release : 2017-04-03
Category : Electronic
ISBN : 152098605X

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Tailored Deterrence: Influencing States and Groups of Concern - Case Studies of Russia, China in the Taiwan Strait, Nuclear-Armed Iran, North Korea, Triad, Hussein and Gulf War Lessons, Zero Nukes by U. S. Military,Department of Defense (DoD),U. S. Government Pdf

Deterrence thinking has evolved from the Cold War to the present. During the period from 1945-1991 when the United States sought to deter attacks by the U.S.S.R. and Warsaw Pact, U.S. nuclear forces were fielded primarily to prevent nuclear war or escalation of war. However, with the breakup of the Soviet Union, as an immediate threat to the United States, and the rise of lesser nuclear states proliferating nuclear technologies, deterrence is once again reexamined for newer solutions.During the Cold War, deterrence strategy evolved over time as officials and defense strategists thought through the changes brought by nuclear weapons. Clearly after 1945, warfare had a new component. Long-range airpower gave states an intercontinental reach. The first A-bombs had an explosive power a thousand times more powerful than an equivalent weight of high explosive bombs like TNT. When thermonuclear weapons were created half a decade later, they, in turn, were a thousand times more powerful per unit weight than the A-bombs that destroyed Hiroshima and Nagasaki. So in a period of four or five years, bomb explosive yields per unit weight increased a thousand times a thousand. This combination of long-range delivery vehicles coupled with warheads or bombs a million times more powerful than their World War II conventional counterparts led to a revolution in the way wars might be fought in the future if such weapons were employed.Abbreviations * 1 New Thinking on Deterrence - Dr. Barry Schneider and Mr. Patrick Ellis * Part One - Deterring State and Non-State Actors: Case Studies * 2 Actor-Specific Behavioral Models of Adversaries: A Key Requirement for Tailored Deterrence - Dr. Jerrold Post * 3 Tailoring U.S. Strategic Deterrence Effects on Russia - Mr. Franklin Miller * 4 Crisis Deterrence in the Taiwan Strait - Dr. Douglas McCready * 5 Deterring a Nuclear-Armed Iran from Adventurism and Nuclear Use - Mr. Gregory F. Giles * 6 Deterring North Korea from Employment of WMD in Future Korean Conflicts and Crises - Dr. Bruce Bennett * 7 Deterrence & Saddam Hussein: Lessons from the 1990-1991 Gulf War - Dr. Barry Schneider * 8 Influencing Terrorists' Acquisition and Use of Weapons of Mass Destruction - Exploring a Possible Strategy - Dr. Lewis Dunn * Part Two - Deterrence Issues and Challenges: A Topical Approach * 9 U.S. Extended Deterrence: How Much Strategic Force Is Too Little? - Mr. David Trachtenberg * 10 Deterrence Issues in a World of Very Few or Zero Nuclear Weapons - Dr. Barry Blechman * 11 Deterrence, the Triad, and Possible Dyads - Mr. Kurt Guthe * 12 The Role of Strategic Communications in Deterrence: Lesson from History - Mr. Richard Estes * 13 A Nation's Resilience as a Deterrence Factor - Mr. Patrick D. Ellis * 14 Summary and Conclusions - Dr. Barry Schneider and Mr. Patrick Ellis

Author : Pang Yang Huei
Publisher : Hong Kong University Press
Page : 337 pages
File Size : 47,8 Mb
Release : 2019-03-01
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 9789888208302

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Strait Rituals by Pang Yang Huei Pdf

The two Taiwan Strait crises took place during a particularly tense period of the Cold War. Although each incident was relatively brief, their consequences loom large. Based on analyses of newly available documents from Beijing, Taipei, and Washington, Pang Yang Huei challenges conventional wisdom that claims Sino-US misperceptions of each other’s strategic concerns were critical in the 1950s. He underscores the fact that Washington, Taipei, and Beijing were actually aware of one another’s strategic intentions during the crises. He also demonstrates conclusively that both “crises” can be understood as a transformation from tacit communication to tacit accommodation. An important contribution of this study is a better understanding of the role of ritual, symbols, and gestures in international relations. While it is true that these two crises resulted in a stalemate, the fact that all parties were able to cultivate talks and negotiations brought relations, especially between the US and China, to a new and more stable level. Simply averting the threat of war was a major achievement. Strait Rituals is an important micro-history of a significant moment during the Cold War and a rich interpretation of the theoretical use of multiple points of view in writing history. It sets a new standard for understanding China’s place in the world. “Strait Rituals is a solidly detailed and thoroughly footnoted excursion into a critical stage of Cold War history. Dr. Pang’s exhaustive archival work sets a real standard in the amalgamation of different sources to reevaluate the Taiwan Strait crises in the 1950s, the repercussions of which can still be felt today.” —Hsiao-ting Lin, Hoover Institution, Stanford University “An excellent book for those interested in the Taiwan Strait crises in the context of the overall history of international affairs in the Asia-Pacific region. The book will prove to be of great value to those interested in the history of the region that is bound to increase in importance in the years to come.” —Akira Iriye, Harvard University “Dispassionate, balanced, rigorous in the presentation of facts, much drawn from Chinese archival sources, Pang Yang Huei’s work will be indispensable for anyone seeking to understand the issues surrounding this Cold War hangover that continues to trouble contemporary politics across the Taiwan Strait.” —Geoffrey C. Gunn, Journal of Contemporary Asia

Author : Nancy Bernkopf Tucker
Publisher : Columbia University Press
Page : 287 pages
File Size : 41,8 Mb
Release : 2005-03-24
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 9780231509633

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Dangerous Strait by Nancy Bernkopf Tucker Pdf

Today the most dangerous place on earth is arguably the Taiwan Strait, where a war between the United States and China could erupt out of miscalculation, misunderstanding, or accident. How and to what degree Taiwan pursues its own national identity will have profound ramifications in its relationship with China as well as in relations between China and the United States. Events late in 2004 demonstrated the volatility of the situation, as Taiwan's legislative elections unexpectedly preserved a slim majority for supporters of closer relations with China. Beijing, nevertheless, threatened to pass an anti-secession law, apt to revitalize pro-independence forces in Taiwan—and make war more likely. Taking change as a central theme, these essays by prominent scholars and practitioners in the arena of U.S.-Taiwan-Chinese relations combine historical context with timely analysis of an accelerating crisis. The book clarifies historical developments, examines myths about past and present policies, and assesses issues facing contemporary policymakers. Moving beyond simplistic explanations that dominate discussion about the U.S.-Taiwan-China relationship, Dangerous Strait challenges common wisdom and approaches the political, economic, and strategic aspects of the cross-Strait situation anew. The result is a collection that provides fresh and much-needed insights into a complex problem and examines the ways in which catastrophe can be avoided. The essays examine a variety of issues, including the movement for independence and its place in Taiwanese domestic politics; the underlying weaknesses of democracy in Taiwan; and the significance of China and Taiwan's economic interdependence. In the security arena, contributors provide incisive critiques of Taiwan's incomplete military modernization; strains in U.S.-Taiwan relations and their differing interpretations of China's intentions; and the misguided inclination among some U.S. policymakers to abandon Washington's traditional policy of strategic ambiguity.

Author : Steve Tsang
Publisher : Routledge
Page : 224 pages
File Size : 53,8 Mb
Release : 2010-04-05
Category : History
ISBN : 9781136916335

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If China Attacks Taiwan by Steve Tsang Pdf

This is a new analysis of the key issues facing Chinese policy makers in their approach towards Taiwan. This is one of the most tense and potentially explosive relationships in world politics. This book explains succinctly the impetus, the methods and the consequences if China is to use force, a prospect that has become greater following the return of President Chen Shui-bian to power in Taiwan for a second term in 2004. If China Attacks Taiwan shows how in reality there can be no real winner in such an eventuality and how the consequences would be dire not just for Taiwan and China, but East Asia as a whole. Whether China will use force depends ultimately on how its policy making apparatus assess potential US intervention, whether its armed forces can subdue Taiwan and counter US military involvement, as well as on its assessment of the likely consequences. Given the extremely high probability of American involvement this volume appeals to not only scholars and students working on China, its foreign policy and the security and prosperity of East Asia, but also to policy makers and journalists interested in China’s rise and its defense policy, Taiwan’s security and development, regional stability as well as US policy toward China and the East Asia region generally. This book is essential for understanding China’s efforts to achieve a ‘peaceful rise’, which requires it to transform itself into a global power not by the actual use of force but by diplomacy backed up by rapidly expanding military power. This book is an excellent resource for all students and scholars of military and security studies, Asian (China/Taiwan) studies and international relations

Author : Christopher P. Twomey
Publisher : Cornell University Press
Page : 272 pages
File Size : 52,9 Mb
Release : 2011-07-15
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 0801459745

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The Military Lens by Christopher P. Twomey Pdf

In The Military Lens, Christopher P. Twomey shows how differing military doctrines have led to misperceptions between the United States and China over foreign policy—and the potential dangers these might pose in future relations. Because of their different strategic situations, histories, and military cultures, nations may have radically disparate definitions of effective military doctrine, strategy, and capabilities. Twomey argues that when such doctrines—or "theories of victory"—differ across states, misperceptions about a rival's capabilities and intentions and false optimism about one's own are more likely to occur. In turn, these can impede international diplomacy and statecraft by making it more difficult to communicate and agree on assessments of the balance of power. When states engage in strategic coercion—either to deter or to compel action—such problems can lead to escalation and war. Twomey assesses a wide array of sources in both the United States and China on military doctrine, strategic culture, misperception, and deterrence theory to build case studies of attempts at strategic coercion during Sino-American conflicts in Korea and the Taiwan Strait in the early years of the Cold War, as well as an examination of similar issues in the Arab-Israeli conflict. After demonstrating how these factors have contributed to past conflicts, Twomey amply documents the persistence of hazardous miscommunication in contemporary Sino-American relations. His unique analytic perspective on military capability suggests that policymakers need to carefully consider the military doctrine of the nations they are trying to influence.

Author : United States. Central Intelligence Agency
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 2 pages
File Size : 42,9 Mb
Release : 1984
Category : China, Southeast
ISBN : PURD:32754073489134

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Taiwan Strait Area by United States. Central Intelligence Agency Pdf

Author : Barry R. Schneider,Patrick D. Ellis
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 466 pages
File Size : 45,6 Mb
Release : 2012
Category : Arms control
ISBN : 0974740381

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Tailored Deterrence by Barry R. Schneider,Patrick D. Ellis Pdf

Author : Ian Easton
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 428 pages
File Size : 47,6 Mb
Release : 2019-04-11
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 1788691776

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The Chinese Invasion Threat by Ian Easton Pdf

Exposing internal Chinese military documents and restricted-access studies, The Chinese Invasion Threat explores the secret world of war planning and strategy, espionage and national security. The untold story of the most dangerous flashpoint of our times.