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What Deters and Why by Michael J. Mazarr,Arthur Chan,Alyssa Demus,Bryan Frederick,Alireza Nader,Stephanie Pezard,Julia A. Thompson,Elina Treyger Pdf
The challenge of deterring territorial aggression is taking on renewed importance, yet discussion of it has lagged in U.S. military and strategy circles. The authors aim to provide a fresh look, with two primary purposes: to review established concepts about deterrence, and to provide a framework for evaluating the strength of deterrent relationships. They focus on a specific type of deterrence: extended deterrence of interstate aggression.
NL ARMS Netherlands Annual Review of Military Studies 2020 by Frans Osinga,Tim Sweijs Pdf
This open access volume surveys the state of the field to examine whether a fifth wave of deterrence theory is emerging. Bringing together insights from world-leading experts from three continents, the volume identifies the most pressing strategic challenges, frames theoretical concepts, and describes new strategies. The use and utility of deterrence in today’s strategic environment is a topic of paramount concern to scholars, strategists and policymakers. Ours is a period of considerable strategic turbulence, which in recent years has featured a renewed emphasis on nuclear weapons used in defence postures across different theatres; a dramatic growth in the scale of military cyber capabilities and the frequency with which these are used; and rapid technological progress including the proliferation of long-range strike and unmanned systems. These military-strategic developments occur in a polarized international system, where cooperation between leading powers on arms control regimes is breaking down, states widely make use of hybrid conflict strategies, and the number of internationalized intrastate proxy conflicts has quintupled over the past two decades. Contemporary conflict actors exploit a wider gamut of coercive instruments, which they apply across a wider range of domains. The prevalence of multi-domain coercion across but also beyond traditional dimensions of armed conflict raises an important question: what does effective deterrence look like in the 21st century? Answering that question requires a re-appraisal of key theoretical concepts and dominant strategies of Western and non-Western actors in order to assess how they hold up in today’s world. Air Commodore Professor Dr. Frans Osinga is the Chair of the War Studies Department of the Netherlands Defence Academy and the Special Chair in War Studies at the University Leiden. Dr. Tim Sweijs is the Director of Research at The Hague Centre for Strategic Studies and a Research Fellow at the Faculty of Military Sciences of the Netherlands Defence Academy in Breda.
National Research Council,Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences,Commission on Physical Sciences, Mathematics, and Applications,Naval Studies Board
Author : National Research Council,Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences,Commission on Physical Sciences, Mathematics, and Applications,Naval Studies Board Publisher : National Academies Press Page : 243 pages File Size : 48,5 Mb Release : 1997-04-02 Category : Technology & Engineering ISBN : 9780309175104
Post-Cold War Conflict Deterrence by National Research Council,Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences,Commission on Physical Sciences, Mathematics, and Applications,Naval Studies Board Pdf
Deterrence as a strategic concept evolved during the Cold War. During that period, deterrence strategy was aimed mainly at preventing aggression against the United States and its close allies by the hostile Communist power centersâ€"the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR) and its allies, Communist China and North Korea. In particular, the strategy was devised to prevent aggression involving nuclear attack by the USSR or China. Since the end of the Cold War, the risk of war among the major powers has subsided to the lowest point in modern history. Still, the changing nature of the threats to American and allied security interests has stimulated a considerable broadening of the deterrence concept. Post-Cold War Conflict Deterrence examines the meaning of deterrence in this new environment and identifies key elements of a post-Cold War deterrence strategy and the critical issues in devising such a strategy. It further examines the significance of these findings for the U.S. Navy and Marine Corps. Quantitative and qualitative measures to support judgments about the potential success or failure of deterrence are identified. Such measures will bear on the suitability of the naval forces to meet the deterrence objectives. The capabilities of U.S. naval forces that especially bear on the deterrence objectives also are examined. Finally, the book examines the utility of models, games, and simulations as decision aids in improving the naval forces' understanding of situations in which deterrence must be used and in improving the potential success of deterrence actions.
For decades, the rational actor model served as the preferred guide for U.S. deterrence policy. It has been a convenient and comforting guide because it requires little detailed knowledge of an opponent’s unique decision-making process and yet typically provides confident generalizations about how deterrence works. The model tends to postulate common decision-making parameters across the globe to reach generalizations about how deterrence will function and the types of forces that will be "stabilizing" or "destabilizing." Yet a broad spectrum of unique factors can influence an opponent’s perceptions and his calculations, and these are not easily captured by the rational actor model. The absence of uniformity means there can be very few deterrence generalizations generated by the use of the rational actor model that are applicable to the entire range of opponents. Understanding Deterrence considers how factors such as psychology, history, religion, ideology, geography, political structure, culture, proliferation and geopolitics can shape a leadership’s decision-making process, in ways that are specific and unique to each opponent. Understanding Deterrence demonstrates how using a multidisciplinary approach to deterrence analysis can better identify and assess factors that influence an opponent’s decision-making process. This identification and assessment process can facilitate the tailoring of deterrence strategies to specific purposes and result in a higher likelihood of success than strategies guided by the generalizations about opponent decision-making typically contained in the rational actor model. This book was published as a special issue of Comparative Strategy.
National Research Council,Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education,Committee on Law and Justice,Committee on Deterrence and the Death Penalty
Author : National Research Council,Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education,Committee on Law and Justice,Committee on Deterrence and the Death Penalty Publisher : National Academies Press Page : 144 pages File Size : 55,5 Mb Release : 2012-05-26 Category : Law ISBN : 9780309254168
Deterrence and the Death Penalty by National Research Council,Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education,Committee on Law and Justice,Committee on Deterrence and the Death Penalty Pdf
Many studies during the past few decades have sought to determine whether the death penalty has any deterrent effect on homicide rates. Researchers have reached widely varying, even contradictory, conclusions. Some studies have concluded that the threat of capital punishment deters murders, saving large numbers of lives; other studies have concluded that executions actually increase homicides; still others, that executions have no effect on murder rates. Commentary among researchers, advocates, and policymakers on the scientific validity of the findings has sometimes been acrimonious. Against this backdrop, the National Research Council report Deterrence and the Death Penalty assesses whether the available evidence provides a scientific basis for answering questions of if and how the death penalty affects homicide rates. This new report from the Committee on Law and Justice concludes that research to date on the effect of capital punishment on homicide rates is not useful in determining whether the death penalty increases, decreases, or has no effect on these rates. The key question is whether capital punishment is less or more effective as a deterrent than alternative punishments, such as a life sentence without the possibility of parole. Yet none of the research that has been done accounted for the possible effect of noncapital punishments on homicide rates. The report recommends new avenues of research that may provide broader insight into any deterrent effects from both capital and noncapital punishments.
Deterrence Theory and Chinese Behavior by Abram N. Shulsky Pdf
China's recent reforms have led to unprecedented economic growth; if this continues, China will be able to turn its great potential power into actual power. The result could be, in the very long term, the rise of China as a rival to the United States as the world's predominant power; in the nearer term, China could become a significant rival in the East Asian region. In this context, the issue for U.S. policy is how to handle a rising power, a problem that predominant powers have faced many times throughout history. It is the contention of this report that the future Sino-U.S. context will illustrate many of the problems of deterrence theory that have been discussed in recent decades; deterrence theory will be, in general, more difficult to apply than it was in the U.S.-Soviet Cold War context. The key may be to seek nonmilitary means of deterrence, i.e., diplomatic ways to manipulate the tension to China's disadvantage.
National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine,Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education,Board on Behavioral, Cognitive, and Sensory Sciences,Committee on the Science of Changing Behavioral Health Social Norms
Author : National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine,Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education,Board on Behavioral, Cognitive, and Sensory Sciences,Committee on the Science of Changing Behavioral Health Social Norms Publisher : National Academies Press Page : 171 pages File Size : 48,5 Mb Release : 2016-09-03 Category : Social Science ISBN : 9780309439121
Ending Discrimination Against People with Mental and Substance Use Disorders by National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine,Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education,Board on Behavioral, Cognitive, and Sensory Sciences,Committee on the Science of Changing Behavioral Health Social Norms Pdf
Estimates indicate that as many as 1 in 4 Americans will experience a mental health problem or will misuse alcohol or drugs in their lifetimes. These disorders are among the most highly stigmatized health conditions in the United States, and they remain barriers to full participation in society in areas as basic as education, housing, and employment. Improving the lives of people with mental health and substance abuse disorders has been a priority in the United States for more than 50 years. The Community Mental Health Act of 1963 is considered a major turning point in America's efforts to improve behavioral healthcare. It ushered in an era of optimism and hope and laid the groundwork for the consumer movement and new models of recovery. The consumer movement gave voice to people with mental and substance use disorders and brought their perspectives and experience into national discussions about mental health. However over the same 50-year period, positive change in American public attitudes and beliefs about mental and substance use disorders has lagged behind these advances. Stigma is a complex social phenomenon based on a relationship between an attribute and a stereotype that assigns undesirable labels, qualities, and behaviors to a person with that attribute. Labeled individuals are then socially devalued, which leads to inequality and discrimination. This report contributes to national efforts to understand and change attitudes, beliefs and behaviors that can lead to stigma and discrimination. Changing stigma in a lasting way will require coordinated efforts, which are based on the best possible evidence, supported at the national level with multiyear funding, and planned and implemented by an effective coalition of representative stakeholders. Ending Discrimination Against People with Mental and Substance Use Disorders: The Evidence for Stigma Change explores stigma and discrimination faced by individuals with mental or substance use disorders and recommends effective strategies for reducing stigma and encouraging people to seek treatment and other supportive services. It offers a set of conclusions and recommendations about successful stigma change strategies and the research needed to inform and evaluate these efforts in the United States.
Author : Harold C. Goddard Publisher : University of Chicago Press Page : 410 pages File Size : 50,9 Mb Release : 2009-02-15 Category : Literary Criticism ISBN : 9780226300382
The Meaning of Shakespeare, Volume 1 by Harold C. Goddard Pdf
In two magnificent and authoritative volumes, Harold C. Goddard takes readers on a tour through the works of William Shakespeare, celebrating his incomparable plays and unsurpassed literary genius.
Military Statecraft and the Rise of Shaping in World Politics by Kyle J. Wolfley Pdf
Winner of the Andrew F. Krepinevich Writing Award A 2022 Choice Reviews Outstanding Academic Title Selected for the Irregular Warfare Initiative’s Inaugural Reading List (2022) In today’s complex international environment, how do the United States, China, and Russia manage the return of great power competition as well as the persistent threat of violent non-state actors? This book explores "shaping": the use of military power to construct a more favorable environment by influencing the characteristics of other militaries, altering the relationships between them, or managing the behavior of allies. As opposed to traditional strategies of warfighting or coercion, shaping relies less on threats, demonstrations, and uses of violence and more on attraction, persuasion, and legitimacy. Because shaping relies more on soft power than on hard power, this approach contradicts the conventional wisdom of the purpose militaries serve. Kyle J. Wolfley explores the emergence of shaping in classical strategy and its increased frequency following the end of the Cold War when threats and allies became more ambiguous. He illustrates the four logics of shaping—attraction, socialization, delegation, and assurance—through five case studies of recent major military exercise programs led by the United States, China, India, the United Kingdom, and Russia. Moreover, the author reveals through sentiment analysis and statistics of over one thousand multinational exercises from 1980 to 2016 how major powers reacted to a complex international environment by expanding the number and scope of shaping exercises. Illuminating an understudied but surprisingly common tool of military statecraft, this book offers a fresh understanding of military power in today's competitive international system.
Jean-Pierre Cabestan, a China specialist based in Hong Kong, provides an overview of “Thucydides’ Trap,” as coined by political scientist Graham Allison to describe the inescapable conflict between Beijing and Washington. Is China’s growing power a threat to the United States? Could it lead to war between the two nations? Economically and militarily stronger, and more nationalist than ever, the People’s Republic of China is increasingly tempted to use force to assert its power, especially in its immediate region. First, the author considers the factors around the threat of war, specifically on the Chinese side, then presents the three most likely armed conflict scenarios: around Taiwan; in the South China Sea; or in the Senkaku Islands under Japanese control. Cabestan also analyses the tensions between China and India along their common borders, which were revived in 2020. But the most likely scenario, according to Cabestan, would be a rapid, piecemeal attack, aimed at tearing borders apart or defending vested interests – not to mention increased cyber warfare. It could also manifest itself as the emergence of a new type of cold war, punctuated by crises bordering on either a nuclear strike or the use of new weapons. U.S.-Chinese tensions and the many potential fronts on which they could elevate are a conflict-in-waiting which will weigh on the 21st century and dominate international life as China seeks to become entrenched as a dominant world power.
The International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS)
Author : The International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) Publisher : Taylor & Francis Page : 161 pages File Size : 48,7 Mb Release : 2023-04-21 Category : History ISBN : 9781000949094
Survival August-September 2020: Crisis and response by The International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) Pdf
Survival, the IISS’s bimonthly journal, challenges conventional wisdom and brings fresh, often controversial, perspectives on strategic issues of the moment. In this issue: Dalia Dassa Kaye and Shira Efron argue that only a major shift in US policy towards Iran would rekindle debate in Israel about its approach to the Islamic Republic Jordan Calinoff and David Gordon contend that the accusation of ‘debt-trap diplomacy’ against China lacks convincing evidence Erik Jones examines the impact of COVID-19 on the EU economy Michael J. Mazarr calls for a new international norm to safeguard the virtual territorial integrity of states from subversive cyber attacks And ten more thought-provoking pieces, as well as our regular book reviews and Noteworthy column
United States. Congress. House. Committee on Appropriations. Subcommittee on Department of Defense
Author : United States. Congress. House. Committee on Appropriations. Subcommittee on Department of Defense Publisher : Unknown Page : 1040 pages File Size : 43,9 Mb Release : 1979 Category : Electronic ISBN : UCAL:B4292500
Department of Defense appropriations for 1980 by United States. Congress. House. Committee on Appropriations. Subcommittee on Department of Defense Pdf
United States. Congress. House. Committee on Appropriations. Subcommittee on Department of Defense
Author : United States. Congress. House. Committee on Appropriations. Subcommittee on Department of Defense Publisher : Unknown Page : 1028 pages File Size : 54,8 Mb Release : 1979 Category : Electronic ISBN : SRLF:AA0002335578
Department of Defense Appropriations for 1980: Strategic Forces. Army's 5-ton truck program. Project Beta and tactical fusion centers. Reprogramming, FY 1979 by United States. Congress. House. Committee on Appropriations. Subcommittee on Department of Defense Pdf
