Uncertain Decisions

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Decision Making Under Uncertainty

Mykel J. Kochenderfer
Decision Making Under Uncertainty Book PDF

Author : Mykel J. Kochenderfer
Publisher : MIT Press
Page : 350 pages
File Size : 55,8 Mb
Release : 2015-07-24
Category : Computers
ISBN : 9780262331715

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Decision Making Under Uncertainty by Mykel J. Kochenderfer Pdf

An introduction to decision making under uncertainty from a computational perspective, covering both theory and applications ranging from speech recognition to airborne collision avoidance. Many important problems involve decision making under uncertainty—that is, choosing actions based on often imperfect observations, with unknown outcomes. Designers of automated decision support systems must take into account the various sources of uncertainty while balancing the multiple objectives of the system. This book provides an introduction to the challenges of decision making under uncertainty from a computational perspective. It presents both the theory behind decision making models and algorithms and a collection of example applications that range from speech recognition to aircraft collision avoidance. Focusing on two methods for designing decision agents, planning and reinforcement learning, the book covers probabilistic models, introducing Bayesian networks as a graphical model that captures probabilistic relationships between variables; utility theory as a framework for understanding optimal decision making under uncertainty; Markov decision processes as a method for modeling sequential problems; model uncertainty; state uncertainty; and cooperative decision making involving multiple interacting agents. A series of applications shows how the theoretical concepts can be applied to systems for attribute-based person search, speech applications, collision avoidance, and unmanned aircraft persistent surveillance. Decision Making Under Uncertainty unifies research from different communities using consistent notation, and is accessible to students and researchers across engineering disciplines who have some prior exposure to probability theory and calculus. It can be used as a text for advanced undergraduate and graduate students in fields including computer science, aerospace and electrical engineering, and management science. It will also be a valuable professional reference for researchers in a variety of disciplines.

Completing the Forecast

National Research Council,Division on Earth and Life Studies,Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate,Committee on Estimating and Communicating Uncertainty in Weather and Climate Forecasts
Completing the Forecast Book PDF

Author : National Research Council,Division on Earth and Life Studies,Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate,Committee on Estimating and Communicating Uncertainty in Weather and Climate Forecasts
Publisher : National Academies Press
Page : 124 pages
File Size : 55,6 Mb
Release : 2006-10-09
Category : Science
ISBN : 9780309180535

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Completing the Forecast by National Research Council,Division on Earth and Life Studies,Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate,Committee on Estimating and Communicating Uncertainty in Weather and Climate Forecasts Pdf

Uncertainty is a fundamental characteristic of weather, seasonal climate, and hydrological prediction, and no forecast is complete without a description of its uncertainty. Effective communication of uncertainty helps people better understand the likelihood of a particular event and improves their ability to make decisions based on the forecast. Nonetheless, for decades, users of these forecasts have been conditioned to receive incomplete information about uncertainty. They have become used to single-valued (deterministic) forecasts (e.g., "the high temperature will be 70 degrees Farenheit 9 days from now") and applied their own experience in determining how much confidence to place in the forecast. Most forecast products from the public and private sectors, including those from the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration's National Weather Service, continue this deterministic legacy. Fortunately, the National Weather Service and others in the prediction community have recognized the need to view uncertainty as a fundamental part of forecasts. By partnering with other segments of the community to understand user needs, generate relevant and rich informational products, and utilize effective communication vehicles, the National Weather Service can take a leading role in the transition to widespread, effective incorporation of uncertainty information into predictions. "Completing the Forecast" makes recommendations to the National Weather Service and the broader prediction community on how to make this transition.

Decision Making Under Uncertainty in Electricity Markets

Antonio J. Conejo,Miguel Carrión,Juan M. Morales
Decision Making Under Uncertainty in Electricity Markets Book PDF

Author : Antonio J. Conejo,Miguel Carrión,Juan M. Morales
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
Page : 542 pages
File Size : 42,7 Mb
Release : 2010-09-08
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781441974211

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Decision Making Under Uncertainty in Electricity Markets by Antonio J. Conejo,Miguel Carrión,Juan M. Morales Pdf

Decision Making Under Uncertainty in Electricity Markets provides models and procedures to be used by electricity market agents to make informed decisions under uncertainty. These procedures rely on well established stochastic programming models, which make them efficient and robust. Particularly, these techniques allow electricity producers to derive offering strategies for the pool and contracting decisions in the futures market. Retailers use these techniques to derive selling prices to clients and energy procurement strategies through the pool, the futures market and bilateral contracting. Using the proposed models, consumers can derive the best energy procurement strategies using the available trading floors. The market operator can use the techniques proposed in this book to clear simultaneously energy and reserve markets promoting efficiency and equity. The techniques described in this book are of interest for professionals working on energy markets, and for graduate students in power engineering, applied mathematics, applied economics, and operations research.

Theory of Decision Under Uncertainty

Itzhak Gilboa
Theory of Decision Under Uncertainty Book PDF

Author : Itzhak Gilboa
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
Page : 216 pages
File Size : 51,8 Mb
Release : 2009-03-16
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9780521517324

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Theory of Decision Under Uncertainty by Itzhak Gilboa Pdf

This book describes the classical axiomatic theories of decision under uncertainty, as well as critiques thereof and alternative theories. It focuses on the meaning of probability, discussing some definitions and surveying their scope of applicability. The behavioral definition of subjective probability serves as a way to present the classical theories, culminating in Savage's theorem. The limitations of this result as a definition of probability lead to two directions - first, similar behavioral definitions of more general theories, such as non-additive probabilities and multiple priors, and second, cognitive derivations based on case-based techniques.

Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty

Vincent A. W. J. Marchau,Warren E. Walker,Pieter J. T. M. Bloemen,Steven W. Popper
Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty Book PDF

Author : Vincent A. W. J. Marchau,Warren E. Walker,Pieter J. T. M. Bloemen,Steven W. Popper
Publisher : Springer
Page : 408 pages
File Size : 49,8 Mb
Release : 2019-04-04
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9783030052522

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Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty by Vincent A. W. J. Marchau,Warren E. Walker,Pieter J. T. M. Bloemen,Steven W. Popper Pdf

This open access book focuses on both the theory and practice associated with the tools and approaches for decisionmaking in the face of deep uncertainty. It explores approaches and tools supporting the design of strategic plans under deep uncertainty, and their testing in the real world, including barriers and enablers for their use in practice. The book broadens traditional approaches and tools to include the analysis of actors and networks related to the problem at hand. It also shows how lessons learned in the application process can be used to improve the approaches and tools used in the design process. The book offers guidance in identifying and applying appropriate approaches and tools to design plans, as well as advice on implementing these plans in the real world. For decisionmakers and practitioners, the book includes realistic examples and practical guidelines that should help them understand what decisionmaking under deep uncertainty is and how it may be of assistance to them. Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty: From Theory to Practice is divided into four parts. Part I presents five approaches for designing strategic plans under deep uncertainty: Robust Decision Making, Dynamic Adaptive Planning, Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways, Info-Gap Decision Theory, and Engineering Options Analysis. Each approach is worked out in terms of its theoretical foundations, methodological steps to follow when using the approach, latest methodological insights, and challenges for improvement. In Part II, applications of each of these approaches are presented. Based on recent case studies, the practical implications of applying each approach are discussed in depth. Part III focuses on using the approaches and tools in real-world contexts, based on insights from real-world cases. Part IV contains conclusions and a synthesis of the lessons that can be drawn for designing, applying, and implementing strategic plans under deep uncertainty, as well as recommendations for future work. The publication of this book has been funded by the Radboud University, the RAND Corporation, Delft University of Technology, and Deltares.

Public Policy in an Uncertain World

Charles F. Manski
Public Policy in an Uncertain World Book PDF

Author : Charles F. Manski
Publisher : Harvard University Press
Page : 218 pages
File Size : 54,7 Mb
Release : 2013-02-14
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 9780674067547

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Public Policy in an Uncertain World by Charles F. Manski Pdf

Manski argues that public policy is based on untrustworthy analysis. Failing to account for uncertainty in an uncertain world, policy analysis routinely misleads policy makers with expressions of certitude. Manski critiques the status quo and offers an innovation to improve both how policy research is conducted and how it is used by policy makers.

The Art of Decisions

Chris Blake
The Art of Decisions Book PDF

Author : Chris Blake
Publisher : FT Press
Page : 274 pages
File Size : 41,9 Mb
Release : 2010
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9780137017102

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The Art of Decisions by Chris Blake Pdf

The Fast-Paced, Fun-to-Read Guide to Making Better Decisions! How much information do you really need to make a business decision? Why don't past winners keep on winning? When should you fold your hand, and when should you press on? In The Art of Decisions, Chris Blake reveals the amazing hidden realities beneath human decision making-and helps you optimize every decision you make. Blake begins by exploding the #1 myth of decision making: the idea that if you have enough knowledge, you can engineer away all risk and make a rational, objective decision that's nearly guaranteed to succeed. Next, Blake turns to the decision-making process itself, teaching better ways to make decisions in a world full of uncertainty, randomness, and tough luck. Drawing on the secrets of psychology, poker, and probability, you'll learn how to identify and overcome biases and errors that constantly creep into the decision-making process. You'll discover the power and pitfalls of intuition in familiar and unfamiliar environments and learn "rules of thumb" drawn from fields as diverse as gambling and computer programming. You're human. You'll never be perfect. But if you want to be right more often, when it matters most, this book will get you there. * Decision-making lessons from Texas Hold'em What to do about the risks and randomness you can't eliminate * Follow your instinct or follow the rules? When to use your intuition--and when to doubt it * Know when it's time to decide How to know when you know enough * Make better decisions in unfamiliar environments Hire a guide or make a map?

Radical Uncertainty: Decision-Making Beyond the Numbers

John Kay,Mervyn King
Radical Uncertainty Decision Making Beyond the Numbers Book PDF

Author : John Kay,Mervyn King
Publisher : W. W. Norton & Company
Page : 407 pages
File Size : 52,9 Mb
Release : 2020-03-17
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781324004783

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Radical Uncertainty: Decision-Making Beyond the Numbers by John Kay,Mervyn King Pdf

Much economic advice is bogus quantification, warn two leading experts in this essential book, now with a preface on COVID-19. Invented numbers offer a false sense of security; we need instead robust narratives that give us the confidence to manage uncertainty. “An elegant and careful guide to thinking about personal and social economics, especially in a time of uncertainty. The timing is impeccable." — Christine Kenneally, New York Times Book Review Some uncertainties are resolvable. The insurance industry’s actuarial tables and the gambler’s roulette wheel both yield to the tools of probability theory. Most situations in life, however, involve a deeper kind of uncertainty, a radical uncertainty for which historical data provide no useful guidance to future outcomes. Radical uncertainty concerns events whose determinants are insufficiently understood for probabilities to be known or forecasting possible. Before President Barack Obama made the fateful decision to send in the Navy Seals, his advisers offered him wildly divergent estimates of the odds that Osama bin Laden would be in the Abbottabad compound. In 2000, no one—not least Steve Jobs—knew what a smartphone was; how could anyone have predicted how many would be sold in 2020? And financial advisers who confidently provide the information required in the standard retirement planning package—what will interest rates, the cost of living, and your state of health be in 2050?—demonstrate only that their advice is worthless. The limits of certainty demonstrate the power of human judgment over artificial intelligence. In most critical decisions there can be no forecasts or probability distributions on which we might sensibly rely. Instead of inventing numbers to fill the gaps in our knowledge, we should adopt business, political, and personal strategies that will be robust to alternative futures and resilient to unpredictable events. Within the security of such a robust and resilient reference narrative, uncertainty can be embraced, because it is the source of creativity, excitement, and profit.

Theory and Approaches of Group Decision Making with Uncertain Linguistic Expressions

Hai Wang,Zeshui Xu
Theory and Approaches of Group Decision Making with Uncertain Linguistic Expressions Book PDF

Author : Hai Wang,Zeshui Xu
Publisher : Springer
Page : 222 pages
File Size : 51,6 Mb
Release : 2019-01-12
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9789811337352

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Theory and Approaches of Group Decision Making with Uncertain Linguistic Expressions by Hai Wang,Zeshui Xu Pdf

This book mainly introduces a series of theory and approaches of group decision-making based on several types of uncertain linguistic expressions and addresses their applications. The book pursues three major objectives: (1) to introduce some techniques to model several types of natural linguistic expressions; (2) to handle these expressions in group decision-making; and (3) to clarify the involved approaches by practical applications. The book is especially valuable for readers to understand how linguistic expressions could be employed and operated to make decisions, and motivates researchers to consider more types of natural linguistic expressions in decision analysis under uncertainties.

Info-Gap Decision Theory

Yakov Ben-Haim
Info Gap Decision Theory Book PDF

Author : Yakov Ben-Haim
Publisher : Elsevier
Page : 384 pages
File Size : 40,7 Mb
Release : 2006-10-11
Category : Computers
ISBN : 9780080465708

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Info-Gap Decision Theory by Yakov Ben-Haim Pdf

Everyone makes decisions, but not everyone is a decision analyst. A decision analyst uses quantitative models and computational methods to formulate decision algorithms, assess decision performance, identify and evaluate options, determine trade-offs and risks, evaluate strategies for investigation, and so on. Info-Gap Decision Theory is written for decision analysts. The term "decision analyst" covers an extremely broad range of practitioners. Virtually all engineers involved in design (of buildings, machines, processes, etc.) or analysis (of safety, reliability, feasibility, etc.) are decision analysts, usually without calling themselves by this name. In addition to engineers, decision analysts work in planning offices for public agencies, in project management consultancies, they are engaged in manufacturing process planning and control, in financial planning and economic analysis, in decision support for medical or technological diagnosis, and so on and on. Decision analysts provide quantitative support for the decision-making process in all areas where systematic decisions are made. This second edition entails changes of several sorts. First, info-gap theory has found application in several new areas - especially biological conservation, economic policy formulation, preparedness against terrorism, and medical decision-making. Pertinent new examples have been included. Second, the combination of info-gap analysis with probabilistic decision algorithms has found wide application. Consequently "hybrid" models of uncertainty, which were treated exclusively in a separate chapter in the previous edition, now appear throughout the book as well as in a separate chapter. Finally, info-gap explanations of robust-satisficing behavior, and especially the Ellsberg and Allais "paradoxes", are discussed in a new chapter together with a theorem indicating when robust-satisficing will have greater probability of success than direct optimizing with uncertain models. New theory developed systematically Many examples from diverse disciplines Realistic representation of severe uncertainty Multi-faceted approach to risk Quantitative model-based decision theory

Rational Choice in an Uncertain World

Reid Hastie,Robyn M. Dawes
Rational Choice in an Uncertain World Book PDF

Author : Reid Hastie,Robyn M. Dawes
Publisher : SAGE
Page : 393 pages
File Size : 48,9 Mb
Release : 2010
Category : Psychology
ISBN : 9781412959032

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Rational Choice in an Uncertain World by Reid Hastie,Robyn M. Dawes Pdf

In the Second Edition of Rational Choice in an Uncertain World the authors compare the basic principles of rationality with actual behaviour in making decisions. They describe theories and research findings from the field of judgment and decision making in a non-technical manner, using anecdotes as a teaching device. Intended as an introductory textbook for advanced undergraduate and graduate students, the material not only is of scholarly interest but is practical as well. The Second Edition includes: - more coverage on the role of emotions, happiness, and general well-being in decisions - a summary of the new research on the neuroscience of decision processes - more discussion of the adaptive value of (non-rational heuristics) - expansion of the graphics for decision trees, probability trees, and Venn diagrams.

Uncertain Decisions

Luigi Luini
Uncertain Decisions Book PDF

Author : Luigi Luini
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
Page : 360 pages
File Size : 47,7 Mb
Release : 2012-12-06
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781461550839

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Uncertain Decisions by Luigi Luini Pdf

Uncertain Decisions: Bridging Theory and Experiments presents advanced directions of thinking on decision theory - in particular the more recent contributions on non-expected utility theory, fuzzy decision theory and case-based theory. This work also provides theoretical insights on measures of risk aversion and on new problems for general equilibrium analysis. It analyzes how the thinking that underlies the theories described above spills over into real decisions, and how the thinking that underlies these real decisions can explain the discrepancies between theoretical approaches and actual behavior. This work elaborates on how the most recent laboratory experiments have become an important source both for evaluating the leading theory of choice and decision, and for contributing to the formation of new models regarding the subject.

Environmental Decisions in the Face of Uncertainty

Institute of Medicine,Board on Population Health and Public Health Practice,Committee on Decision Making Under Uncertainty
Environmental Decisions in the Face of Uncertainty Book PDF

Author : Institute of Medicine,Board on Population Health and Public Health Practice,Committee on Decision Making Under Uncertainty
Publisher : National Academies Press
Page : 280 pages
File Size : 40,8 Mb
Release : 2013-05-20
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 9780309290234

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Environmental Decisions in the Face of Uncertainty by Institute of Medicine,Board on Population Health and Public Health Practice,Committee on Decision Making Under Uncertainty Pdf

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is one of several federal agencies responsible for protecting Americans against significant risks to human health and the environment. As part of that mission, EPA estimates the nature, magnitude, and likelihood of risks to human health and the environment; identifies the potential regulatory actions that will mitigate those risks and protect public health1 and the environment; and uses that information to decide on appropriate regulatory action. Uncertainties, both qualitative and quantitative, in the data and analyses on which these decisions are based enter into the process at each step. As a result, the informed identification and use of the uncertainties inherent in the process is an essential feature of environmental decision making. EPA requested that the Institute of Medicine (IOM) convene a committee to provide guidance to its decision makers and their partners in states and localities on approaches to managing risk in different contexts when uncertainty is present. It also sought guidance on how information on uncertainty should be presented to help risk managers make sound decisions and to increase transparency in its communications with the public about those decisions. Given that its charge is not limited to human health risk assessment and includes broad questions about managing risks and decision making, in this report the committee examines the analysis of uncertainty in those other areas in addition to human health risks. Environmental Decisions in the Face of Uncertainty explains the statement of task and summarizes the findings of the committee.

Risk: How to Make Decisions in an Uncertain World

Zeger Degraeve,Nigel Nicholson
Risk How to Make Decisions in an Uncertain World Book PDF

Author : Zeger Degraeve,Nigel Nicholson
Publisher : Dreamtech Press
Page : 100 pages
File Size : 52,7 Mb
Release : 2006
Category : Electronic
ISBN : 817722686X

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Risk: How to Make Decisions in an Uncertain World by Zeger Degraeve,Nigel Nicholson Pdf

The book is a concise overview of the principles of risk management and decision making. It helps you analyse risks, choose the right way to handle them and improve your decision making. The book is a concise overview of the principles of risk management and decision making. It helps you analyse risks, choose the right way to handle them and improve your decision making.

Theory and Practice of Uncertain Programming

Baoding Liu
Theory and Practice of Uncertain Programming Book PDF

Author : Baoding Liu
Publisher : Springer
Page : 202 pages
File Size : 46,7 Mb
Release : 2008-12-28
Category : Technology & Engineering
ISBN : 9783540894841

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Theory and Practice of Uncertain Programming by Baoding Liu Pdf

Real-life decisions are usually made in the state of uncertainty such as randomness and fuzziness. How do we model optimization problems in uncertain environments? How do we solve these models? In order to answer these questions, this book provides a self-contained, comprehensive and up-to-date presentation of uncertain programming theory, including numerous modeling ideas, hybrid intelligent algorithms, and applications in system reliability design, project scheduling problem, vehicle routing problem, facility location problem, and machine scheduling problem. Researchers, practitioners and students in operations research, management science, information science, system science, and engineering will find this work a stimulating and useful reference.