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Author : Sudarshan Gooptu
Publisher : World Bank Publications
Page : 74 pages
File Size : 53,5 Mb
Release : 1993
Category : Electronic
ISBN : 8210379456XXX
Author : Mr.Serkan Arslanalp,Mr.Takahiro Tsuda
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 25 pages
File Size : 43,9 Mb
Release : 2015-12-17
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781513559223
Portfolio flows to emerging markets (EMs) tend to be correlated. A possible explanation is the role global benchmarks play in allocating capital internationally, the so-called “benchmark effect.” This paper finds that benchmark-driven investors indeed play a large role in a key segment of the market—the EM local currency government bond market—, accounting for more than one third of total foreign holdings as of end-2014. We find that the prominence of these investors declined somewhat after the May 2013 taper tantrum, but remain high. This distinction is important in understanding the drivers of EM capital flows and their sensitivity to different types of shocks. In particular, a high share of benchmark-driven investors may result in capital flows that are more sensitive to global shocks and less sensitive to country factors.
Author : Serkan Arslanalp (Mr)
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 128 pages
File Size : 46,5 Mb
Release : 2015
Category : Electronic
ISBN : 1513529951
Portfolio flows to emerging markets (EMs) tend to be correlated. A possible explanation is the role global benchmarks play in allocating capital internationally, the so-called "benchmark effect." This paper finds that benchmark-driven investors indeed play a large role in a key segment of the market-the EM local currency government bond market-, accounting for more than one third of total foreign holdings as of end-2014. We find that the prominence of these investors declined somewhat after the May 2013 taper tantrum, but remain high. This distinction is important in understanding the drivers.
Author : Nasha Ananchotikul,Ms.Longmei Zhang
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 33 pages
File Size : 53,6 Mb
Release : 2014-08-19
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781498340229
In recent years, portfolio flows to emerging markets have become increasingly large and volatile. Using weekly portfolio fund flows data, the paper finds that their short-run dynamics are driven mostly by global “push” factors. To what extent do these cross-border flows and global risk aversion drive asset volatility in emerging markets? We use a Dynamic Conditional Correlation (DCC) Multivariate GARCH framework to estimate the impact of portfolio flows and the VIX index on three asset prices, namely equity returns, bond yields and exchange rates, in 17 emerging economies. The analysis shows that global risk aversion has a significant impact on the volatility of asset prices, while the magnitude of that impact correlates with country characteristics, including financial openness, the exchange rate regime, as well as macroeconomic fundamentals such as inflation and the current account balance. In line with earlier literature, portfolio flows to emerging markets are also found to affect the level of asset prices, as was the case in particular during the global financial crisis.
Author : Maria Sole Pagliari,Swarnali Ahmed Hannan
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 58 pages
File Size : 53,5 Mb
Release : 2017-03-07
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781475585254
Capital flow volatility is a concern for macroeconomic and financial stability. Nonetheless, literature is scarce in this topic. Our paper sheds light on this issue in two dimensions. First, using quarterly data for 65 countries over the period 1970Q1-2016Q1, we construct three measures of volatility, for total capital flows and key instruments. Second, we perform panel regressions to understand the determinants of volatility. The measures show that the volatility of all instruments is prone to bouts, rising sharply during global shocks like the taper tantrum episode. Capital flow volatility thus remains a challenge for policy makers. The regression results suggest that push factors can be more important than pull factors in explaining volatility, illustrating that the characteristics of volatility can be different from those of the flows levels.
Author : Mr.Mohsin S. Khan,Zhaohui Chen
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 33 pages
File Size : 44,8 Mb
Release : 1997-01-01
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781451924947
This paper reviews some of the basic patterns of international capital flows to emerging markets in recent years, including the composition of capital flows, intraregional flow patterns, and the geographical distribution of the flows. A theoretical model that sheds new light on these observed patterns is developed. This model focuses on the cost of financing aspect of capital flows, and shows that the patterns of capital flows are influenced by the combined effects of financial market development and growth potential in the recipient countries. The theoretical predictions of the model are shown to be consistent with the stylized facts.
Author : Mr. Evan Papageorgiou,Rohit Goel
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 14 pages
File Size : 41,6 Mb
Release : 2021-12-16
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781616357597
An interesting disconnect has taken shape between local currency- and hard currency-denominated bonds in emerging markets with respect to their portfolio flows and prices since the start of the recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic. Emerging market assets have recovered sharply from the COVID-19 sell-off in 2020, but the post-pandemic recovery in 2021 has been highly uneven. This note seeks to answer why. Yields of local currency-denominated bonds have risen faster and are approaching their pandemic highs, while hard currency bond yields are still near their post-pandemic lows. Portfolio flows to local currency debt have similarly lagged flows to hard currency bonds. This disconnect is closely linked to the external environment and fiscal and inflationary pressures. Its evolution remains a key consideration for policymakers and investors, since local markets are the main source of funding for emerging markets. This note draws from the methodology developed in earlier Global Financial Stability Reports on fundamentals-based asset valuation models for funding costs and forecasting models for capital flows (using the at-risk framework). The results are consistent across models, indicating that local currency assets are significantly more sensitive to domestic fundamentals while hard currency assets are dependent on the external risk sentiment to a greater extent. This suggests that the post-pandemic, stressed domestic fundamentals have weighed on local currency bonds, partially offsetting the boost from supportive global risk sentiment. The analysis also highlights the risks emerging markets face from an asynchronous recovery and weak domestic fundamentals.
Author : Mr.Eugenio Cerutti,Mr.Stijn Claessens,Mr.Damien Puy
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 43 pages
File Size : 42,5 Mb
Release : 2015-06-22
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781513526638
This paper analyzes the behavior of gross capital inflows across 34 emerging markets (EMs). We first confirm that aggregate inflows to EMs co-move considerably. We then report three findings: (i) the aggregate co-movement conceals significant heterogeneity across asset types as only bank-related and portfolio bond and equity inflows do co-move; (ii) while global push factors in advanced economies mostly explain the common dynamics, their relative importance varies by type of flow; and (iii) the sensitivity to common dynamics varies significantly across borrower countries, with market structure characteristics (especially the composition of the foreign investor base and the level of liquidity) rather than borrower country’s institutional fundamentals strongly affecting sensitivities. Countries relying more on international funds and global banks are found to be more sensitive to push factors. Our findings suggest that EMs need to closely monitor their lenders and investors to assess their inflow exposures to global push factors.
Author : Mr.R. Gelos
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 29 pages
File Size : 49,9 Mb
Release : 2011-04-01
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781455253319
Gaining a better understanding of the behavior of international investors is key for informing the debate about the optimal response to capital flows and about reforms to the international financial architecture. In this context, recent research on the behavior of international mutual funds at the micro level has expanded our knowledge about the drivers of portfolio flows and the mechanisms behind the transmission of financial shocks across countries. This paper provides a brief survey of this literature, with a focus on the empirical evidence for emerging markets. Overall, the behavior of international mutual funds is complex and overly simplistic characterizations are misleading. However, there is broad-based evidence for momentum trading among funds. Moreover, funds tend to avoid opaque markets and assets, and this behavior becomes more pronounced during volatile times. Portfolio rebalancing mechanisms are clearly important in explaining contagion patterns, even in the absence of common macroeconomic fundamentals. From a surveillance point of view, this implies that monitoring the exposures of large investors at a micro level is crucial to assess vulnerabilities.
Author : Nordine Abidi,Ms.Burcu Hacibedel,Ms.Mwanza Nkusu
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 37 pages
File Size : 42,7 Mb
Release : 2016-08-23
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781475529548
This paper investigates to what extent low-income developing countries (LIDCs) characterized as frontier markets (FMs) have begun to be subject to capital flows dynamics typically associated with emerging markets (EMs). Using a sample of developing countries covering the period 2000–14, we show that: (i) average annual portfolio flows to FMs as a share of GDP outstripped those to EMs by about 0.6 percentage points of GDP; (ii) during years of heightened stress in global financial markets, portfolio flows to FMs dried up like those to EMs; and that (iii) FMs have become more integrated into international financial markets. Our findings confirm that, in terms of portfolio flows, FMs have become more similar to EMs than to the rest of LIDCs and are therefore more vulnerable to swings in global financial markets conditions. Accordingly, it is important to have in place frameworks to strengthen FMs’ resilience to adverse capital flows shocks.
Author : Mr.Luis Brandao-Marques,Mr.R. Gelos,Hibiki Ichiue,Ms.Hiroko Oura
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 36 pages
File Size : 53,5 Mb
Release : 2015-12-28
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781513555560
An analysis of mutual-fund-level flow data into EM bond and equity markets confirms that different types of funds behave differently. Bond funds are more sensitive to global factors and engage more in return chasing than equity funds. Flows from retail, open-end, and offshore funds are more volatile. Global funds are more stable in their EM investments than “dedicated” EM funds. Differences in the stability of flows from ultimate investors play a key role in explaining these patterns. The changing mix of global investors over the past 15 year has probably made portfolio flows to EMs more sensitive to global financial conditions.
Author : Mahmood Pradhan,Mr.Ravi Balakrishnan,Reza Baqir,Mr.Geoffrey Heenan,Sylwia Nowak,Ceyda Oner,Mr.Sanjaya Panth
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 45 pages
File Size : 44,9 Mb
Release : 2011-04-20
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781463935122
Staff Discussion Notes showcase the latest policy-related analysis and research being developed by individual IMF staff and are published to elicit comment and to further debate. These papers are generally brief and written in nontechnical language, and so are aimed at a broad audience interested in economic policy issues. This Web-only series replaced Staff Position Notes in January 2011.
Author : Punam Chuhan
Publisher : World Bank Publications
Page : 45 pages
File Size : 53,9 Mb
Release : 1994
Category : Capital investments
ISBN : 8210379456XXX
Major institutional investors in five industrial countries invest cautiously, and very little, in emerging market securities. But only in Germany are regulations on foreign investment a significant constraint.
Author : Swarnali Ahmed Hannan
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 22 pages
File Size : 45,8 Mb
Release : 2018-09-28
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781484378281
This paper documents the evolution of gross and net capital flows to emerging market economies and surveys the large literature on the potential drivers. While the capital flow landscape has been shaped by the evolution of both global and country-specific factors, the relative importance of these factors has varied over time and differs depending on the type of capital flows. The findings from the survey of the literature thus underscores the importance of policies in both source and recipient countries in shaping capital flows.
Author : Swarnali Ahmed Hannan
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 26 pages
File Size : 40,9 Mb
Release : 2017-03-10
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781475586121
Using a sample of 34 emerging markets and developing economies over the period 2009Q3-2015Q4, the paper employs a panel framework to study the determinants of capital flows, both net and gross, across a wide range of instruments. The baseline regressions are then extended to focus on high and low episodes – quarters with flows one standard deviation above/below mean. Overall, the results suggest that the capital flow slowdown witnessed in recent years is due to a combination of lower growth prospects of recipient countries and worse global risk sentiment. However, the determinants of flows can be considerably different across instruments and across the type of flows considered, net or gross. The sensitivity of certain types of flows, towards push and pull factors, increases during periods of high and low capital flows. Moreover, some variables may not necessarily be significant during normal times, but can be important drivers during such episodes, and vice versa. Indicators like the gap between the U.S. long- and short-term maturity bond yields – not significant during normal times – can be an important driver during high episodes.