Portfolio Flows Global Risk Aversion And Asset Prices In Emerging Markets

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Portfolio Flows, Global Risk Aversion and Asset Prices in Emerging Markets

Nasha Ananchotikul,Ms.Longmei Zhang
Portfolio Flows Global Risk Aversion and Asset Prices in Emerging Markets Book PDF

Author : Nasha Ananchotikul,Ms.Longmei Zhang
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 33 pages
File Size : 46,6 Mb
Release : 2014-08-19
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781498355285

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Portfolio Flows, Global Risk Aversion and Asset Prices in Emerging Markets by Nasha Ananchotikul,Ms.Longmei Zhang Pdf

In recent years, portfolio flows to emerging markets have become increasingly large and volatile. Using weekly portfolio fund flows data, the paper finds that their short-run dynamics are driven mostly by global “push” factors. To what extent do these cross-border flows and global risk aversion drive asset volatility in emerging markets? We use a Dynamic Conditional Correlation (DCC) Multivariate GARCH framework to estimate the impact of portfolio flows and the VIX index on three asset prices, namely equity returns, bond yields and exchange rates, in 17 emerging economies. The analysis shows that global risk aversion has a significant impact on the volatility of asset prices, while the magnitude of that impact correlates with country characteristics, including financial openness, the exchange rate regime, as well as macroeconomic fundamentals such as inflation and the current account balance. In line with earlier literature, portfolio flows to emerging markets are also found to affect the level of asset prices, as was the case in particular during the global financial crisis.

Portfolio Investment Flows to Emerging Markets

Sudarshan Gooptu
Portfolio Investment Flows to Emerging Markets Book PDF

Author : Sudarshan Gooptu
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 78 pages
File Size : 54,9 Mb
Release : 1993
Category : Capital investments
ISBN : UCSD:31822015073752

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Portfolio Investment Flows to Emerging Markets by Sudarshan Gooptu Pdf

It is important that policymakers know the source of portfolio inflows to their countries-- to help them gauge whether they are temporary, and to make policy decisions for dealing with large future inflows and outflows.

Theories of Contagion

Andreas Vester
Theories of Contagion Book PDF

Author : Andreas Vester
Publisher : diplom.de
Page : 85 pages
File Size : 50,6 Mb
Release : 2006-10-02
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9783832498733

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Theories of Contagion by Andreas Vester Pdf

Inhaltsangabe:Abstract: In recent years academics and policy makers have become more and more interested in the phenomenon of contagion, a concept involving the transmission of a financial crisis from one country to one or more other countries. During the 1990s world capital markets witnessed a number of financial crises. In 1992 the Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM) crisis hit the European continent. Several countries in Latin America have been rocked during the 1994-95 Tequila crisis, and the Asian Flu spread through East Asian countries in 1997-98 with dramatic social implications. Later in 1998 the famous hedge fund Long Term Capital Management (LTCM) had to file for bankruptcy and the Russian debt failure shocked international capital markets and increased volatility on a global scale. The crisis spread to as far as Brazil in early 1999 and developed markets have become victims as well. The question asked by academics and policy makers is how countries should behave in order to avoid contagion. To answer this question it is necessary to understand the different channels of contagion in greater detail and how a crisis can be transmitted from one country to another. The objective of this paper is to highlight those channels and to present a number of models and theories of contagion, which have recently been developed by academics. In general, there are several strands of theories in the literature that try to explain the transmission of crises. During the mid and late 1990s fundamental-based contagion and spillovers became popular among researchers and policy makers. Furthermore, financial linkages have been known to contribute to contagion. In contrast, in recent years, portfolio flows of international investors moved into the focus of academics. The advocates of fundamental-based contagion and spillovers argue that trade linkages between countries are responsible for contagion. For instance, a devaluation of a country's currency may lead to a negative change in fundamentals of its trading partners. On the other hand, contagion due to financial linkages is mainly explained by the fact that countries share the same banks and therefore have common creditors. A crisis in one country then leads to a deteriorating balance sheet of those common creditors. This in turn may force banks to withdraw money out of other countries in order to avoid further losses, a fact that leads to contagious sellouts. The role of international portfolio flows, which is [...]

Drivers of Emerging Market Bond Flows and Prices

Mr. Evan Papageorgiou,Rohit Goel
Drivers of Emerging Market Bond Flows and Prices Book PDF

Author : Mr. Evan Papageorgiou,Rohit Goel
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 14 pages
File Size : 45,6 Mb
Release : 2021-12-16
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781616357597

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Drivers of Emerging Market Bond Flows and Prices by Mr. Evan Papageorgiou,Rohit Goel Pdf

An interesting disconnect has taken shape between local currency- and hard currency-denominated bonds in emerging markets with respect to their portfolio flows and prices since the start of the recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic. Emerging market assets have recovered sharply from the COVID-19 sell-off in 2020, but the post-pandemic recovery in 2021 has been highly uneven. This note seeks to answer why. Yields of local currency-denominated bonds have risen faster and are approaching their pandemic highs, while hard currency bond yields are still near their post-pandemic lows. Portfolio flows to local currency debt have similarly lagged flows to hard currency bonds. This disconnect is closely linked to the external environment and fiscal and inflationary pressures. Its evolution remains a key consideration for policymakers and investors, since local markets are the main source of funding for emerging markets. This note draws from the methodology developed in earlier Global Financial Stability Reports on fundamentals-based asset valuation models for funding costs and forecasting models for capital flows (using the at-risk framework). The results are consistent across models, indicating that local currency assets are significantly more sensitive to domestic fundamentals while hard currency assets are dependent on the external risk sentiment to a greater extent. This suggests that the post-pandemic, stressed domestic fundamentals have weighed on local currency bonds, partially offsetting the boost from supportive global risk sentiment. The analysis also highlights the risks emerging markets face from an asynchronous recovery and weak domestic fundamentals.

Emerging Market Portfolio Flows

Mr.Serkan Arslanalp,Mr.Takahiro Tsuda
Emerging Market Portfolio Flows Book PDF

Author : Mr.Serkan Arslanalp,Mr.Takahiro Tsuda
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 25 pages
File Size : 48,5 Mb
Release : 2015-12-17
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781513559223

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Emerging Market Portfolio Flows by Mr.Serkan Arslanalp,Mr.Takahiro Tsuda Pdf

Portfolio flows to emerging markets (EMs) tend to be correlated. A possible explanation is the role global benchmarks play in allocating capital internationally, the so-called “benchmark effect.” This paper finds that benchmark-driven investors indeed play a large role in a key segment of the market—the EM local currency government bond market—, accounting for more than one third of total foreign holdings as of end-2014. We find that the prominence of these investors declined somewhat after the May 2013 taper tantrum, but remain high. This distinction is important in understanding the drivers of EM capital flows and their sensitivity to different types of shocks. In particular, a high share of benchmark-driven investors may result in capital flows that are more sensitive to global shocks and less sensitive to country factors.

Portfolio Flows, Global Risk Aversion and Asset Prices in Emerging Markets

Nasha Ananchotikul,Ms.Longmei Zhang
Portfolio Flows Global Risk Aversion and Asset Prices in Emerging Markets Book PDF

Author : Nasha Ananchotikul,Ms.Longmei Zhang
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 33 pages
File Size : 44,7 Mb
Release : 2014-08-19
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781498340229

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Portfolio Flows, Global Risk Aversion and Asset Prices in Emerging Markets by Nasha Ananchotikul,Ms.Longmei Zhang Pdf

In recent years, portfolio flows to emerging markets have become increasingly large and volatile. Using weekly portfolio fund flows data, the paper finds that their short-run dynamics are driven mostly by global “push” factors. To what extent do these cross-border flows and global risk aversion drive asset volatility in emerging markets? We use a Dynamic Conditional Correlation (DCC) Multivariate GARCH framework to estimate the impact of portfolio flows and the VIX index on three asset prices, namely equity returns, bond yields and exchange rates, in 17 emerging economies. The analysis shows that global risk aversion has a significant impact on the volatility of asset prices, while the magnitude of that impact correlates with country characteristics, including financial openness, the exchange rate regime, as well as macroeconomic fundamentals such as inflation and the current account balance. In line with earlier literature, portfolio flows to emerging markets are also found to affect the level of asset prices, as was the case in particular during the global financial crisis.

Economics of Emerging Markets

Lado Beridze
Economics of Emerging Markets Book PDF

Author : Lado Beridze
Publisher : Nova Publishers
Page : 378 pages
File Size : 46,5 Mb
Release : 2008
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 1600218504

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Economics of Emerging Markets by Lado Beridze Pdf

This book presents recent significant research dealing the economics of emerging markets. The term emerging markets is commonly used to describe business and market activity in industrialising or emerging regions of the world. The term is sometimes loosely used as a replacement for emerging economies, but really signifies a business phenomenon that is not fully described by or constrained to geography or economic strength; such countries are considered to be in a transitional phase between developing and developed status. Examples of emerging markets include China, India, Mexico, Brazil, much of Southeast Asia, countries in Eastern Europe, parts of Africa and Latin America. An emerging market is sometimes defined as "a country where politics matters at least as much as economics to the markets."

Managing Volatile Capital Flows: Experiences and Lessons for Sub-Saharan African Frontier Markets

Cheikh A. Gueye,Mr.Javier Arze del Granado,Mr.Rodrigo Garcia-Verdu,Mr.Mumtaz Hussain,Mr.B. Jang,Mr.Sebastian Weber,Mr.Juan S Corrales
Managing Volatile Capital Flows Experiences and Lessons for Sub Saharan African Frontier Markets Book PDF

Author : Cheikh A. Gueye,Mr.Javier Arze del Granado,Mr.Rodrigo Garcia-Verdu,Mr.Mumtaz Hussain,Mr.B. Jang,Mr.Sebastian Weber,Mr.Juan S Corrales
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 39 pages
File Size : 44,6 Mb
Release : 2014-03-26
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781616358440

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Managing Volatile Capital Flows: Experiences and Lessons for Sub-Saharan African Frontier Markets by Cheikh A. Gueye,Mr.Javier Arze del Granado,Mr.Rodrigo Garcia-Verdu,Mr.Mumtaz Hussain,Mr.B. Jang,Mr.Sebastian Weber,Mr.Juan S Corrales Pdf

During the past three years the frontier markets of sub-Saharan Africa have received growing amounts of portfolio capital flows, with heightened interest from foreign investors. Compared with foreign direct investment, portfolio capital flows tend to be more volatile, and thus pose challenges for sub-Saharan African frontier markets. This study examines the evolution of capital flows since 2010 and discusses the policies these countries have designed to reduce risks from the inherent volatility of these flows.

Gross Private Capital Flows to Emerging Markets

Erlend Nier,Tahsin Saadi Sedik,Tomas Mondino
Gross Private Capital Flows to Emerging Markets Book PDF

Author : Erlend Nier,Tahsin Saadi Sedik,Tomas Mondino
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 35 pages
File Size : 45,9 Mb
Release : 2014-10-27
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781498352925

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Gross Private Capital Flows to Emerging Markets by Erlend Nier,Tahsin Saadi Sedik,Tomas Mondino Pdf

This paper assesses empirically the key drivers of private capital flows to a large sample of emerging market economies in the last decade. It analyzes the effect of the global financial cycle, measured by the VIX, on capital flows and investigates the role of fundamentals and country characteristics in mitigating or amplifying its effect. Using interaction models, we find the effect of the VIX to be non-linear. For low levels of the VIX, capital flows are driven by fundamental factors. During periods of stress, the VIX becomes the dominant driver of capital flows while other determinants, with the exception of interest rate differentials, lose statistical significance. Our results also suggest that the effect of global financial conditions on gross private capital flows increases with the host country’s level of financial sector development. Finally, our results imply that countries cannot fully insulate themselves from global financial shocks, unless creating a fragmented global financial system.

Preemptive Policies and Risk-Off Shocks in Emerging Markets

Ms. Mitali Das,Ms. Gita Gopinath,Şebnem Kalemli-Özcan
Preemptive Policies and Risk Off Shocks in Emerging Markets Book PDF

Author : Ms. Mitali Das,Ms. Gita Gopinath,Şebnem Kalemli-Özcan
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 54 pages
File Size : 40,5 Mb
Release : 2022-01-07
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781616358341

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Preemptive Policies and Risk-Off Shocks in Emerging Markets by Ms. Mitali Das,Ms. Gita Gopinath,Şebnem Kalemli-Özcan Pdf

We show that “preemptive” capital flow management measures (CFM) can reduce emerging markets and developing countries’ (EMDE) external finance premia during risk-off shocks, especially for vulnerable countries. Using a panel dataset of 56 EMDEs during 1996–2020 at monthly frequency, we document that countries with preemptive policies in place during the five year window before risk-off shocks experienced relatively lower external finance premia and exchange rate volatility during the shock compared to countries which did not have such preemptive policies in place. We use the episodes of Taper Tantrum and COVID-19 as risk-off shocks. Our identification relies on a difference-in-differences methodology with country fixed effects where preemptive policies are ex-ante by construction and cannot be put in place as a response to the shock ex-post. We control the effects of other policies, such as monetary policy, foreign exchange interventions (FXI), easing of inflow CFMs and tightening of outflow CFMs that are used in response to the risk-off shocks. By reducing the impact of risk-off shocks on countries’ funding costs and exchange rate volatility, preemptive policies enable countries’ continued access to international capital markets during troubled times.

International Capital Flows

Martin Feldstein
International Capital Flows Book PDF

Author : Martin Feldstein
Publisher : University of Chicago Press
Page : 500 pages
File Size : 44,6 Mb
Release : 2007-12-01
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9780226241807

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International Capital Flows by Martin Feldstein Pdf

Recent changes in technology, along with the opening up of many regions previously closed to investment, have led to explosive growth in the international movement of capital. Flows from foreign direct investment and debt and equity financing can bring countries substantial gains by augmenting local savings and by improving technology and incentives. Investing companies acquire market access, lower cost inputs, and opportunities for profitable introductions of production methods in the countries where they invest. But, as was underscored recently by the economic and financial crises in several Asian countries, capital flows can also bring risks. Although there is no simple explanation of the currency crisis in Asia, it is clear that fixed exchange rates and chronic deficits increased the likelihood of a breakdown. Similarly, during the 1970s, the United States and other industrial countries loaned OPEC surpluses to borrowers in Latin America. But when the U.S. Federal Reserve raised interest rates to control soaring inflation, the result was a widespread debt moratorium in Latin America as many countries throughout the region struggled to pay the high interest on their foreign loans. International Capital Flows contains recent work by eminent scholars and practitioners on the experience of capital flows to Latin America, Asia, and eastern Europe. These papers discuss the role of banks, equity markets, and foreign direct investment in international capital flows, and the risks that investors and others face with these transactions. By focusing on capital flows' productivity and determinants, and the policy issues they raise, this collection is a valuable resource for economists, policymakers, and financial market participants.

Emerging Market Volatility

Ms.Ratna Sahay,Mr.Vivek B. Arora,Mr.Athanasios V Arvanitis,Mr.Hamid Faruqee,Mr.Papa N'Diaye,Mr.Tommaso Mancini Griffoli
Emerging Market Volatility Book PDF

Author : Ms.Ratna Sahay,Mr.Vivek B. Arora,Mr.Athanasios V Arvanitis,Mr.Hamid Faruqee,Mr.Papa N'Diaye,Mr.Tommaso Mancini Griffoli
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 29 pages
File Size : 55,6 Mb
Release : 2014-10-02
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781484356005

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Emerging Market Volatility by Ms.Ratna Sahay,Mr.Vivek B. Arora,Mr.Athanasios V Arvanitis,Mr.Hamid Faruqee,Mr.Papa N'Diaye,Mr.Tommaso Mancini Griffoli Pdf

Accommodative monetary policies in advanced economies have spurred increased capital inflows into emerging markets since the global financial crisis. Starting in May 2013, when the Federal Reserve publicly discussed its plans for tapering unconventional monetary policies, these emerging markets have experienced financial turbulence at the same that their domestic economic activity has slowed. This paper examines their experiences and policy responses and draws broad policy lessons. For emerging markets, good macroeconomic fundamentals matter, and early and decisive measures to strengthen macroeconomic policies and reduce vulnerabilities help dampen market reactions to external shocks. For advanced economies, clear and effective communication about the exit from unconventional monetary policy can and did help later to reduce the risk of excessive market volatility. And for the global community, enhanced global cooperation, including a strong global financial safety net, offers emerging markets effective protection against excessive volatility.

International Capital Flow Pressures

Ms.Linda S. Goldberg,Signe Krogstrup
International Capital Flow Pressures Book PDF

Author : Ms.Linda S. Goldberg,Signe Krogstrup
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 58 pages
File Size : 45,9 Mb
Release : 2018-02-16
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781484341803

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International Capital Flow Pressures by Ms.Linda S. Goldberg,Signe Krogstrup Pdf

This paper presents a new measure of capital flow pressures in the form of a recast Exchange Market Pressure index. The measure captures pressures that materialize in actual international capital flows as well as pressures that result in exchange rate adjustments. The formulation is theory-based, relying on balance of payments equilibrium conditions and international asset portfolio considerations. Based on the modified exchange market pressure index, the paper also proposes the Global Risk Response Index, which reflects the country-specific sensitivity of capital flow pressures to measures of global risk aversion. For a large sample of countries over time, we demonstrate time variation in the effects of global risk on exchange market pressures, the evolving importance of the global factor across types of countries, and the changing risk-on or risk-off status of currencies.

Capital Flows at Risk: Taming the Ebbs and Flows

Mr.R. G Gelos,Lucyna Gornicka,Mr.Robin Koepke,Ms.Ratna Sahay,Ms.Silvia Sgherri
Capital Flows at Risk Taming the Ebbs and Flows Book PDF

Author : Mr.R. G Gelos,Lucyna Gornicka,Mr.Robin Koepke,Ms.Ratna Sahay,Ms.Silvia Sgherri
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 44 pages
File Size : 54,8 Mb
Release : 2019-12-20
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781513522906

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Capital Flows at Risk: Taming the Ebbs and Flows by Mr.R. G Gelos,Lucyna Gornicka,Mr.Robin Koepke,Ms.Ratna Sahay,Ms.Silvia Sgherri Pdf

The volatility of capital flows to emerging markets continues to pose challenges to policymakers. In this paper, we propose a new framework to answer critical policy questions: What policies and policy frameworks are most effective in dampening sharp capital flow movements in response to global shocks? What are the near- versus medium-term trade-offs of different policies? We tackle these questions using a quantile regression framework to predict the entire future probability distribution of capital flows to emerging markets, based on current domestic structural characteristics, policies, and global financial conditions. This new approach allows policymakers to quantify capital flows risks and evaluate policy tools to mitigate them, thus building the foundation of a risk management framework for capital flows.

Coordinated Portfolio investment Survey

International Monetary Fund
Coordinated Portfolio investment Survey Book PDF

Author : International Monetary Fund
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 180 pages
File Size : 47,7 Mb
Release : 1997-01-01
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781455216567

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Coordinated Portfolio investment Survey by International Monetary Fund Pdf

This paper presents a coordinated portfolio investment survey guide provided to assist national compilers in the conduct of the Coordinated Portfolio Investment Survey, conducted under the auspices of the IMF with reference to the year-end 1997. The guide covers a variety of conceptual issues that a country must address when conducting a survey. It also covers the practical issues associated with preparing for a national survey. These include setting a timetable, taking account of the legal and confidentiality issues raised, developing a mailing list, and maintaining quality control checks.