Estimating Impact

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Estimating Impact

Alexander Kott,Gary Citrenbaum
Estimating Impact Book PDF

Author : Alexander Kott,Gary Citrenbaum
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
Page : 362 pages
File Size : 50,8 Mb
Release : 2010-09-15
Category : Computers
ISBN : 9781441962355

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Estimating Impact by Alexander Kott,Gary Citrenbaum Pdf

Sociological theories of crime include: theories of strain blame crime on personal stressors; theories of social learning blame crime on its social rewards, and see crime more as an institution in conflict with other institutions rather than as in- vidual deviance; and theories of control look at crime as natural and rewarding, and explore the formation of institutions that control crime. Theorists of corruption generally agree that corruption is an expression of the Patron–Client relationship in which a person with access to resources trades resources with kin and members of the community in exchange for loyalty. Some approaches to modeling crime and corruption do not involve an explicit simulation: rule based systems; Bayesian networks; game theoretic approaches, often based on rational choice theory; and Neoclassical Econometrics, a rational choice-based approach. Simulation-based approaches take into account greater complexities of interacting parts of social phenomena. These include fuzzy cognitive maps and fuzzy rule sets that may incorporate feedback; and agent-based simulation, which can go a step farther by computing new social structures not previously identified in theory. The latter include cognitive agent models, in which agents learn how to perceive their en- ronment and act upon the perceptions of their individual experiences; and reactive agent simulation, which, while less capable than cognitive-agent simulation, is adequate for testing a policy’s effects with existing societal structures. For example, NNL is a cognitive agent model based on the REPAST Simphony toolkit.

COVID-19: Estimating impact on the economy and poverty in Pakistan: Using SAM Multiplier Model

Moeen, Muhammad Saad,Haider, Zeeshan,Shikoh, Sania Haider,Rizwan, Noormah,Davies, Stephen,Rana, Abdul Wajid
COVID 19 Estimating impact on the economy and poverty in Pakistan Using SAM Multiplier Model Book PDF

Author : Moeen, Muhammad Saad,Haider, Zeeshan,Shikoh, Sania Haider,Rizwan, Noormah,Davies, Stephen,Rana, Abdul Wajid
Publisher : Intl Food Policy Res Inst
Page : 40 pages
File Size : 47,7 Mb
Release : 2021-01-23
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 8210379456XXX

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COVID-19: Estimating impact on the economy and poverty in Pakistan: Using SAM Multiplier Model by Moeen, Muhammad Saad,Haider, Zeeshan,Shikoh, Sania Haider,Rizwan, Noormah,Davies, Stephen,Rana, Abdul Wajid Pdf

Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) multiplier analysis has been employed to assess the impacts of COVID-19 on various macroeconomic variables including Gross Domestic Product (GDP), employment, and poverty in Pakistan. SAM multiplier models are well-suited to estimate the direct and indirect effects of unanticipated demand-side shocks and short-term fluctuations on various sectors and agents in the economy, such as those caused by the COVID19 pandemic. The results show that Pakistan’s GDP declined by 26.4 percent from mid-March to the end of June 2020 (14 weeks) compared to a non-COVID scenario. Services were hit the hardest, registering losses of 17.6 percent, followed by industry with losses of 6.7 percent. Agriculture turned out to be resilient and remained relatively unhurt, falling by 2.1 percent. All households witnessed a reduction in incomes, but higher-income quartiles appeared to have lost more than lower-income ones. Our approach for economic impact with mitigation measures is to assess the effectiveness of Emergency Response Packages (ERP) by altering the remittances to levels that reflect the magnitude of the support from the government. The total government expenditures were directed towards different kinds of households of PKR 318.6 billion (USD 2.12 billion). This led to a reduction of about USD 3.1 billion in GDP losses, which, compared to the amount spent implied a multiplier of 1.4 in GDP per PKR spent. The national poverty rate soared to 43 percent and 38.7 percent in April and May respectively. The Government’s cash transfers program proved highly effective and led to 11 percent reduction in poverty rate during the pandemic. The recovery scenarios indicate a cumulative GDP loss of USD 11.8 billion and 11.1 USD billion under slow and fast recovery scenarios, respectively, by December 2020. Our estimates show that Pakistan’s annual GDP (at market prices) will register a decline of 4.6 percent in the year 2020 due to negative effects of the pandemic and sluggish economic recovery. Poverty is expected to stabilize at 27.6 percent and 27.4 percent for the two recovery scenarios by December 2020.

Methods of Estimating the Impact of Federal Fiscal Policies on Federal Revenues

United States. Congress. Senate. Committee on Finance
Methods of Estimating the Impact of Federal Fiscal Policies on Federal Revenues Book PDF

Author : United States. Congress. Senate. Committee on Finance
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 92 pages
File Size : 42,5 Mb
Release : 1995
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : PSU:000023486225

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Methods of Estimating the Impact of Federal Fiscal Policies on Federal Revenues by United States. Congress. Senate. Committee on Finance Pdf

Estimating the Impact of External Shocks on the ECCU: Application to the COVID Shock

Vivian Parlak,Mr. Gonzalo Salinas,Mr. Mauricio Vargas
Estimating the Impact of External Shocks on the ECCU Application to the COVID Shock Book PDF

Author : Vivian Parlak,Mr. Gonzalo Salinas,Mr. Mauricio Vargas
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 37 pages
File Size : 43,7 Mb
Release : 2021-08-20
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781513585413

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Estimating the Impact of External Shocks on the ECCU: Application to the COVID Shock by Vivian Parlak,Mr. Gonzalo Salinas,Mr. Mauricio Vargas Pdf

We measure the impact of frequent exogeneous shocks on small ECCU economies, including changes to global economic activity, tourism flows, oil prices, passport sales, FDI, and natural disasters. Using Canonical-Correlation Analysis (CCA) and dynamic panel regression analysis we find significant effects of most of these shocks on output, while only fluctuations in oil prices have significant effects on inflation. Results also suggest a significant impact of FDI and passport sales on the external balance, a link that CCA identifies as the strongest among all analyzed relations. The model also shows how Covid-19 related shocks lead to substantial contractions in output in all ECCU countries and deterioration of the current account balance in most of them, depending on countries’ tourism dependency.

Federal water requirements challenges to estimating the cost impact on local communities

United States. Government Accountability Office
Federal water requirements challenges to estimating the cost impact on local communities Book PDF

Author : United States. Government Accountability Office
Publisher : DIANE Publishing
Page : 41 pages
File Size : 45,8 Mb
Release : 2005
Category : Federal aid to water quality management
ISBN : 9781428932944

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Federal water requirements challenges to estimating the cost impact on local communities by United States. Government Accountability Office Pdf

Estimating the Impact of Access to Infrastructure and Extension Services in Rural Nepal

Andrew Scott Dillon,Manohar Sharma,Xiaobo Zhang
Estimating the Impact of Access to Infrastructure and Extension Services in Rural Nepal Book PDF

Author : Andrew Scott Dillon,Manohar Sharma,Xiaobo Zhang
Publisher : Intl Food Policy Res Inst
Page : 50 pages
File Size : 49,5 Mb
Release : 2011-01-01
Category : Social Science
ISBN : 9780896291881

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Estimating the Impact of Access to Infrastructure and Extension Services in Rural Nepal by Andrew Scott Dillon,Manohar Sharma,Xiaobo Zhang Pdf

During the period of Nepal's ninth five-year plan (19972002), agricultural growth in the predominantly rural society was disappointing. The recent peace process, however, gives the country new opportunities to develop its economy with less interference due to internal conflict. This research monograph investigates how Nepal might seize these opportunities by increasing agricultural growth and poverty reduction through improvements in roads, irrigation, and rural extension. The authors evaluate the impact of public investments in these areas by using two types of data and methodology: a hedonic approach that relates access to public infrastructure and services to land value and a panel of household-level data on consumption, poverty, and income. The hedonic methodology suggests a positive relationship between investments in irrigation and extension and household welfare, although the panel data approach suggests otherwise. This result reinforces the importance of methodology in evaluating rural investments. Rural roads yielded more clear-cut findings, however: both approaches agree that investment there has a positive relationship with household welfare, as measured in land values, consumption growth, poverty reduction, or agricultural income growth. The authors recommend increased public investments in rural roads, irrigation, and extension, as well as further research into precisely how infrastructure and services affect rural households' welfare and how their effectiveness can be improved. This monograph will be useful to policymakers, researchers, and others concerned with Nepal's future development.

Estimating the Job Creation Impact of Development Assistance

Asian Development Bank
Estimating the Job Creation Impact of Development Assistance Book PDF

Author : Asian Development Bank
Publisher : Asian Development Bank
Page : 121 pages
File Size : 50,8 Mb
Release : 2022-12-01
Category : Law
ISBN : 9789292699703

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Estimating the Job Creation Impact of Development Assistance by Asian Development Bank Pdf

This publication shares the findings of a study to identify better ways of estimating the impact of development assistance on job creation. The study used input–output and computable general equilibrium models to develop a customized approach to improve the fit and predictiveness of jobs impact assessments. It used 2010–2019 data on Asian Development Bank operations in Fiji, Indonesia, and Thailand. The findings suggest that simpler input–output models may best suit projects that support substantial local purchases of non-construction capital goods and services. More comprehensive and data-intensive computable general equilibrium models can help capture the broad impact of programmatic policy support and large-scale projects.

Methodologies for Estimating the Economic Impacts of Natural Disasters

Hirokazu Tatano,Yoshio Kajitani
Methodologies for Estimating the Economic Impacts of Natural Disasters Book PDF

Author : Hirokazu Tatano,Yoshio Kajitani
Publisher : Springer Nature
Page : 104 pages
File Size : 49,5 Mb
Release : 2021-10-05
Category : Nature
ISBN : 9789811627194

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Methodologies for Estimating the Economic Impacts of Natural Disasters by Hirokazu Tatano,Yoshio Kajitani Pdf

This book outlines methodologies to estimate the economic impacts of natural disasters based on business surveys conducted after large disasters in Japan. By including numerous observations on business activities in past disasters and the validations of both engineering and economic models based on these data sets, this book appeals to practitioners who estimate the regional economic impacts as well as to students and young professionals in various fields who conduct disaster impact studies. The book consists of 7 chapters and includes theories and practices, which help readers to interlink the estimation methods with real-world problems. The study primarily focuses on cases in Japan, but the methods employed can be generalized and applied in other countries.

Learning from SARS

Institute of Medicine,Board on Global Health,Forum on Microbial Threats
Learning from SARS Book PDF

Author : Institute of Medicine,Board on Global Health,Forum on Microbial Threats
Publisher : National Academies Press
Page : 376 pages
File Size : 49,5 Mb
Release : 2004-04-26
Category : Medical
ISBN : 9780309182157

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Learning from SARS by Institute of Medicine,Board on Global Health,Forum on Microbial Threats Pdf

The emergence of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) in late 2002 and 2003 challenged the global public health community to confront a novel epidemic that spread rapidly from its origins in southern China until it had reached more than 25 other countries within a matter of months. In addition to the number of patients infected with the SARS virus, the disease had profound economic and political repercussions in many of the affected regions. Recent reports of isolated new SARS cases and a fear that the disease could reemerge and spread have put public health officials on high alert for any indications of possible new outbreaks. This report examines the response to SARS by public health systems in individual countries, the biology of the SARS coronavirus and related coronaviruses in animals, the economic and political fallout of the SARS epidemic, quarantine law and other public health measures that apply to combating infectious diseases, and the role of international organizations and scientific cooperation in halting the spread of SARS. The report provides an illuminating survey of findings from the epidemic, along with an assessment of what might be needed in order to contain any future outbreaks of SARS or other emerging infections.

Global Warming and Agriculture

William R Cline
Global Warming and Agriculture Book PDF

Author : William R Cline
Publisher : Columbia University Press
Page : 250 pages
File Size : 46,6 Mb
Release : 2007-07-30
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9780881324808

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Global Warming and Agriculture by William R Cline Pdf

How will global warming affect developing countries, which rely heavily on agriculture as a source of economic growth? William Cline asserts that developing countries have more at risk, such as their production capacity, than industrial countries as global warming worsens. Using general circulation models, Cline boldly examines 2071–99 to forecast the effects of global warming and its economic impact into the next decade. This detailed study outlines existing studies on climate change; Cline finds the Stern Report for the UK government's estimates most reliable; estimates projected changes in temperature, precipitation, and agricultural capacity; and concludes with policy recommendations. Cline finds that agricultural production in developing countries may fall an average of 16 percent, and if global warming progresses at its current rate, India's agricultural capacity could fall as much as 40 percent. Thus, policymakers should address this phenomenon now before the world's developing countries are adversely and irreversibly affected.