Covid 19 Estimating Impact On The Economy And Poverty In Pakistan Using Sam Multiplier Model

Author : Moeen, Muhammad Saad,Haider, Zeeshan,Shikoh, Sania Haider,Rizwan, Noormah,Davies, Stephen,Rana, Abdul Wajid
Publisher : Intl Food Policy Res Inst
Page : 40 pages
File Size : 45,6 Mb
Release : 2021-01-23
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 8210379456XXX

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COVID-19: Estimating impact on the economy and poverty in Pakistan: Using SAM Multiplier Model by Moeen, Muhammad Saad,Haider, Zeeshan,Shikoh, Sania Haider,Rizwan, Noormah,Davies, Stephen,Rana, Abdul Wajid Pdf

Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) multiplier analysis has been employed to assess the impacts of COVID-19 on various macroeconomic variables including Gross Domestic Product (GDP), employment, and poverty in Pakistan. SAM multiplier models are well-suited to estimate the direct and indirect effects of unanticipated demand-side shocks and short-term fluctuations on various sectors and agents in the economy, such as those caused by the COVID19 pandemic. The results show that Pakistan’s GDP declined by 26.4 percent from mid-March to the end of June 2020 (14 weeks) compared to a non-COVID scenario. Services were hit the hardest, registering losses of 17.6 percent, followed by industry with losses of 6.7 percent. Agriculture turned out to be resilient and remained relatively unhurt, falling by 2.1 percent. All households witnessed a reduction in incomes, but higher-income quartiles appeared to have lost more than lower-income ones. Our approach for economic impact with mitigation measures is to assess the effectiveness of Emergency Response Packages (ERP) by altering the remittances to levels that reflect the magnitude of the support from the government. The total government expenditures were directed towards different kinds of households of PKR 318.6 billion (USD 2.12 billion). This led to a reduction of about USD 3.1 billion in GDP losses, which, compared to the amount spent implied a multiplier of 1.4 in GDP per PKR spent. The national poverty rate soared to 43 percent and 38.7 percent in April and May respectively. The Government’s cash transfers program proved highly effective and led to 11 percent reduction in poverty rate during the pandemic. The recovery scenarios indicate a cumulative GDP loss of USD 11.8 billion and 11.1 USD billion under slow and fast recovery scenarios, respectively, by December 2020. Our estimates show that Pakistan’s annual GDP (at market prices) will register a decline of 4.6 percent in the year 2020 due to negative effects of the pandemic and sluggish economic recovery. Poverty is expected to stabilize at 27.6 percent and 27.4 percent for the two recovery scenarios by December 2020.

Author : Moeen, Muhammad Saad,Haider, Zeeshan,Shikoh, Sania Haider,Rizwan, Noormah,Ejaz, Amna,Davies, Stephen,Rana, Abdul Wajid
Publisher : Intl Food Policy Res Inst
Page : 42 pages
File Size : 49,8 Mb
Release : 2021-02-13
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 8210379456XXX

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Estimating the economic impacts of the first wave of COVID-19 in Pakistan using a SAM Multiplier Model by Moeen, Muhammad Saad,Haider, Zeeshan,Shikoh, Sania Haider,Rizwan, Noormah,Ejaz, Amna,Davies, Stephen,Rana, Abdul Wajid Pdf

Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) multiplier analysis has been employed to assess the impacts of COVID-19 on various macroeconomic variables including Gross Domestic Product (GDP), employment, and poverty in Pakistan. SAM multiplier models are well-suited to estimate the direct and indirect effects of unanticipated demand-side shocks and short-term fluctuations on various sectors and agents in the economy, such as those caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. The results show that Pakistan’s GDP declined by 26.4 percent from mid-March to the end of June 2020 (14 weeks) compared to a non-COVID scenario. Services were hit the hardest, registering losses of 17.6 percent, followed by industry with losses of 6.7 percent. Agriculture turned out to be resilient and remained relatively unhurt, falling by 2.1 percent. All households witnessed a reduction in incomes, but higher-income quartiles appeared to have lost more than lower-income ones. Our approach for economic impact with mitigation measures is to assess the effectiveness of Emergency Response Packages (ERP) by altering the remittances to levels that reflect the magnitude of the support from the government. The total government expenditures were directed towards different kinds of households of PKR 318.6 billion (USD 2.12 billion). This led to a reduction of about USD 3.1 billion in GDP losses, which, compared to the amount spent implied a multiplier of 1.4 in GDP per PKR spent. The national poverty rate soared to 43 percent and 38.7 percent in April and May respectively. The Government’s cash transfers program proved highly effective and led to 11 percent reduction in poverty rate during the pandemic. The recovery scenarios indicate a cumulative GDP loss of USD 11.8 billion and 11.1 USD billion under slow and fast recovery scenarios, respectively, by December 2020. Our estimates show that Pakistan’s annual GDP (at market prices) will register a decline of 4.6 percent in the year 2020 due to negative effects of the pandemic and sluggish economic recovery. Poverty is expected to stabilize at 27.6 percent and 27.4 percent for the two recovery scenarios by December 2020.

Author : Muhammad Saad Moeen,Zeeshan Haider,Sania Haider Shikoh,Noormah Rizwan,Amna Ejaz,Stephen Davies,Abdul Wajid Rana
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 0 pages
File Size : 46,9 Mb
Release : 2021
Category : Electronic
ISBN : OCLC:1355966475

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Estimating the Economic Impacts of the First Wave of COVID-19 in Pakistan Using a SAM Multiplier Model by Muhammad Saad Moeen,Zeeshan Haider,Sania Haider Shikoh,Noormah Rizwan,Amna Ejaz,Stephen Davies,Abdul Wajid Rana Pdf

Author : Aragie, Emerta,Diao, Xinshen,Robinson, Sherman,Rosenbach, Gracie,Spielman, David J.,Thurlow, James
Publisher : Intl Food Policy Res Inst
Page : 35 pages
File Size : 54,9 Mb
Release : 2021-05-17
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 8210379456XXX

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Assessing the economywide impacts of COVID-19 on Rwanda’s economy, agri-food system, and poverty: A social accounting matrix (SAM) multiplier approach by Aragie, Emerta,Diao, Xinshen,Robinson, Sherman,Rosenbach, Gracie,Spielman, David J.,Thurlow, James Pdf

Rwanda’s policy response to COVID-19 has been widely praised for its rapid, systematic, and comprehensive approach to containing the pandemic. Although the economic consequences are unavoidable, the country expects to return its economy to its high-growth trajectory as the pandemic subsides. We use economic modeling tools designed to estimate the short-term economywide impacts of the unanticipated, rapid-onset economic shocks of COVID-19 on Rwanda. - Results show that during the six-week lockdown that began in March, Rwanda’s GDP fell 39.1 percent (RWF 435 billion; USD 484 million) when compared to a no-COVID situation in the same period. - Results further show that Rwanda’s GDP in 2020 will be between 12 and 16 percent lower than a predicted no-COVID GDP, depending on the pace of the recovery. The losses in annual GDP are between RWF 1.0 and 1.5 trillion (USD 1.1–1.6 billion). - While GDP for the industrial and services sectors were estimated to have fallen during the lockdown period by 57 and 48 percent, respectively, exemptions of COVID-19 restrictions for the agricultural sector limited the decline in agricultural GDP to 7 percent compared to a noCOVID situation. - During the lockdown period, the national poverty rate is estimated to have increased by 10.9 percentage points as 1.3 million people, mostly in rural areas, fell into temporary poverty. Poverty rates are expected to stabilize by the end of 2020, increasing only by between 0.4 and 1.1 percentage points. While these figures may be encouraging, they mask the impacts on poor households of the sharp poverty spike during the lockdown and the inherent complexity of poverty dynamics post-lockdown. Looking forward, the speed and success of Rwanda’s recovery will depend critically on the expansion of Rwanda’s social protection programs, boosting enterprises of all sizes, support to the agri-food system, and restoration of international trade.

Author : Andam, Kwaw S.,Edeh, Hyacinth,Oboh, Victor,Pauw, Karl,Thurlow, James
Publisher : Intl Food Policy Res Inst
Page : 25 pages
File Size : 47,8 Mb
Release : 2020-07-21
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 8210379456XXX

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Estimating the economic costs of COVID-19 in Nigeria by Andam, Kwaw S.,Edeh, Hyacinth,Oboh, Victor,Pauw, Karl,Thurlow, James Pdf

In this paper we analyze the economic impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic and the policies adopted to curtail the spread of the disease in Nigeria. We carry out simulations using a multiplier model based on the 2018 Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) for Nigeria, which includes supply-use tables for 284 goods and services. The pandemic’s global reach and impact on the global economy combined with the response policies in Nigeria represent a large, sudden shock to the country’s economy. The SAM multiplier model is well-suited for measuring the short-term direct and indirect results of this type of shock because the SAM represents both the structure of the economy and the interactions among economic actors via commodity and factor markets. Our analysis focuses on the five-week lockdown implemented by the federal government across the Federal Capital Territory of Abuja and Lagos and Ogun states from late March to early May 2020, the federal lockdown for Kano from mid-April, and the state-level lockdowns that were implemented from mid-April for around seven weeks in Akwa Ibom, Borno, Ekiti, Kwara, Osun, Rivers, and Taraba states. We estimate that during the lockdown periods Nigeria’s GDP suffered a 34.1 percent loss due to COVID-19, amounting to USD 16 billion, with two-thirds of the losses coming from the services sector. The agriculture sector, which serves as the primary means of livelihood for most Nigerians, suffered a 13.1 percent loss in output (USD 1.2 billion). Although primary agricultural activities were excluded from the direct restrictions on economic activities imposed in the lockdown zones, the broader agri-food system was affected indirectly because of its linkages with the rest of the economy. We estimate that households lost on average 33 percent of their incomes during the period, with the heaviest losses occurring for rural non-farm and for urban households. The economic impacts of COVID-19 include a 14-percentage point temporary increase in the poverty headcount rate for Nigeria, implying that 27 million additional people fell below the poverty line during lockdown. Lastly, we consider economic recovery scenarios as the COVID-19 policies are being relaxed during the latter part of 2020. Our findings have implications for understanding the direct and indirect impacts of COVID-19, for policy design during the recovery period, and for planning future disease prevention measures while protecting livelihoods and maintaining economic growth.

Author : Pradesha, Angga,Amaliah, Syarifah , Noegroho, Anang ,Thurlow, James
Publisher : Intl Food Policy Res Inst
Page : 11 pages
File Size : 42,7 Mb
Release : 2020-07-30
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 8210379456XXX

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The cost of COVID-19 on the Indonesian economy: A Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) multiplier approach by Pradesha, Angga,Amaliah, Syarifah , Noegroho, Anang ,Thurlow, James Pdf

Sustained economic growth and a declining trend in poverty over the years in Indonesia potentially will come to a halt this year. This development cost comes as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic outbreak that recently hit the country. Like in many other countries, one of the largest costs of COVID-19 comes from the social distancing policy, which is a proven public health measure to reduce the spread of the virus by limiting people’s movements and interactions for a certain period of time. The government of Indonesia adopted this approach by gradually introducing in certain regions the Large-scale Social Restriction (PSBB) policy from early April 2020. PSBB restricts non-essential economic activities and people’s movement in order to contain the virus. IFPRI, the National Development Planning Agency of Indonesia (BAPPENAS), and IPB University used a SAM multiplier model to measure the economic impact of PSBB if restrictions were to be in place for four weeks and to explore potential recovery processes after the policy ends. Some of the key findings were: • National GDP is estimated to fall by 24 percent during the four-week PSBB period, • External sector shocks – reduced export demand, lower remittances, and lower foreign investments – contribute around one-third of total GDP losses; • The GDP of Indonesia’s agri-food system falls by 13 percent despite agriculture activities being excluded from restrictive measures; • National poverty is expected to jump by 13 percentage points – an additional 36 million people will fall into poverty during the four-week PSBB period; and • By the end of 2020, due to COVID-19 the annual GDP growth is expected to be between 5.3 and 7.3 percent lower than under a baseline scenario without COVID-19.

Author : Baulch, Bob,Botha, Rosemary,Pauw, Karl
Publisher : Intl Food Policy Res Inst
Page : 29 pages
File Size : 55,5 Mb
Release : 2020-12-21
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 8210379456XXX

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The short-term impacts of COVID-19 on the Malawian economy 2020-2021: A SAM multiplier modeling analysis by Baulch, Bob,Botha, Rosemary,Pauw, Karl Pdf

This working paper builds on a report which was prepared for the 2020 ECAMA Lakeshore Conference in November 2020. It extends and updates the initial results of modeling undertaken by the International Food Policy Research Institute to assess the short-run impacts of COVID-19 control measures on the Malawian economy. We also consider the short-run effects of external shocks associated with disruptions in trade and tourism, investment, and remittance flows on the Malawian economy, as well as two medium-term paths assuming either faster or slower recovery during the remainder of 2020 and 2021. Using a Social Accounting Matrix multiplier model, we estimate GDP declines by around 16.5 percent during April/May 2020 due to social distancing measures. This leads to around 1.6 million people, mainly in rural areas, temporarily falling into poverty, although urban households suffer the largest income losses. We also model the impact of a faster and a slower lifting of restrictions and external shocks during the remainder of 2020 and 2021. With faster easing of restrictions, cumulative GDP gains turn positive by the third quarter of 2021 under the fast recovery scenario and exceed their pre-COVID-19 levels by US$178 million before the end of 2021. However, under the slow recovery scenario, Malawi’s GDP continues to decline until the end of 2020 before recovering during quarters 1 and 4 of 2021. However, this is not sufficient to wipe out the losses in quarters 2 to 4 of 2020, resulting in cumulative losses under the slow recovery scenario of US$332 million over the two years. Relative to the without COVID-19 scenario, US$937 million of GDP is lost under the fast recovery scenario and US$1,447 million under the slow recovery one. As both the development of the COVID-19 pandemic and the economic situation in Malawi are highly uncertain at the present time, the results reported in this paper should be regarded as interim estimates, which are subject to revision as the underlying health and economic data change.

Author : Aragie, Emerta,Taffesse, Alemayehu Seyoum,Tamru, Seneshaw
Publisher : Intl Food Policy Res Inst
Page : 17 pages
File Size : 40,7 Mb
Release : 2020-12-09
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 8210379456XXX

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The short-term impact of COVID-19 on Ethiopia’s economy through external sector channels: An economywide multiplier model analysis by Aragie, Emerta,Taffesse, Alemayehu Seyoum,Tamru, Seneshaw Pdf

The COVID-19 pandemic is expected to considerably affect the Ethiopian economy directly and indirectly due to global shocks and to the different restrictive preventative measures the country is taking. We analyze these economic effects using multisector economywide income multiplier models built on the two latest Social Accounting Matrices (SAMs) developed for Ethiopia. Three external sector channels are the focus of the analysis: commodity exports, strategic imports, and remittances. Results indicate that in the absence of any policy responses, the Ethiopian economy is expected to experience a loss of approximately 4.3 to 5.5 percent of its annual GDP due to exports, strategic imports, and remittances that are one-third lower relative to the no-COVID situation over a period of six-months. This translates into estimated reductions in labor income of between 4.2 and 5.2 percent. The SAM multiplier model estimates also imply that these negative shocks lead to household income losses that amount to between 3.9 and 6.4 percent. In particular, the urban poor will be the most affected as they lose real incomes in the range of 6.6 to 8.5 percent. These income losses are estimated to result in a 3.5 percentage point rise in the national poverty headcount.

Author : Aragie, Emerta,Taffesse, Alemayehu Seyoum,Thurlow, James
Publisher : Intl Food Policy Res Inst
Page : 24 pages
File Size : 48,5 Mb
Release : 2020-12-09
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 8210379456XXX

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Assessing the short-term impacts of COVID-19 on Ethiopia’s economy: External and domestic shocks and pace of recovery by Aragie, Emerta,Taffesse, Alemayehu Seyoum,Thurlow, James Pdf

In this paper, we analyze the economic impacts of response measures adopted in Ethiopia to curtail the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic. We carry out simulations using an economywide multiplier model based on a 2017 Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) for the country that properly depicts interactions between economic agents. The pandemic’s impact on the global economy combined with disruptions it causes in Ethiopia represents a large, unprecedented shock to the country’s economy. In such situations, a SAM-based multiplier model provides an ideal tool for measuring the short-term direct and indirect impacts of a shock on an economic system since there is limited room for proper adjustment of economic decisions. We model the seven-week partial lockdown policy implemented in Ethiopia from mid-March to early May 2020. We also consider two possible economic recovery scenarios that may emerge as the COVID-19 control policies are relaxed during the latter part of 2020 in order to generate insights on the potential continuing impact of the virus at the end of 2020. Although the country took early swift measures, our assessment of the partial lockdown measures suggests that they were not as strict as those observed in other Africa countries. Accordingly, our estimates of the economic costs of COVID-19 on Ethiopia are significantly lower than those reported for other countries on the continent. We estimate that during the lockdown period Ethiopia’s GDP suffered a 14 percent loss (43.5 billion Birr or 1.9 billion USD) compared to a no-COVID case over the same period. Nearly two-thirds of the losses were in the services sector. Although no direct restrictions were imposed on the agriculture sector, which serves as the primary means of livelihood for most Ethiopians, the sector faced a 4.7 percent loss in output due to its linkages with the rest of the economy. Poor export performance due to a slowdown in global trade and restrictions on the transport sector also partly explain the decline in agricultural output. The broader agri-food system also was affected considerably because of its linkages with the rest of the economy. In terms of the welfare of Ethiopians, we estimate that the economic impacts during the lockdown caused 10.1 million additional people to fall below the poverty line. These findings have implications for better understanding the direct and indirect impacts of COVID-19 and for policy design during the recovery period to return Ethiopia’s economy to a normal growth trajectory and to protect the livelihoods of the most vulnerable in the process.

Author : Elsabbagh, Dalia,Kurdi, Sikandra,Wiebelt, Manfred
Publisher : Intl Food Policy Res Inst
Page : 9 pages
File Size : 55,7 Mb
Release : 2021-02-05
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 8210379456XXX

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Impact of COVID-19 on the Yemeni economy: How the drop in remittances affected economic sectors, food systems, and households by Elsabbagh, Dalia,Kurdi, Sikandra,Wiebelt, Manfred Pdf

There has been an unprecedented decline in the flow of remittances to Yemen – a vital source of money for millions – as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic. A Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) multiplier model of Yemen’s economy was used to estimate the impact of lower remittances on economic sectors and employment, food systems, and household incomes.

Author : Baulch, Bob,Botha, Rosemary,Pauw, Karl
Publisher : Intl Food Policy Res Inst
Page : 21 pages
File Size : 45,6 Mb
Release : 2020-11-21
Category : Social Science
ISBN : 8210379456XXX

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The short-term impacts of COVID-19 on the Malawian economy, 2020–2021: A SAM multiplier modeling analysis by Baulch, Bob,Botha, Rosemary,Pauw, Karl Pdf

This paper has been written for the 2020 ECAMA Lakeshore Conference. It extends and updates the initial results of modeling undertaken by IFPRI to assess the short-run impacts of COVID-19 control measures on the Malawian economy. We also consider the short-run effects of external shocks associated with disruptions in trade and tourism, investment, and remittance flows on the Malawian economy, as well as two medium- erm paths assuming either faster or slower recovery during the remainder of 2020 and 2021. Using a SAM multiplier model, we estimate GDP declines by around 16.5 percent during April/May 2020 due to social distancing measures. This leads to around 1.6 million people, mainly in rural areas, temporarily falling into poverty, although urban households suffer the largest income losses.

Author : Raouf, Mariam,Elsabbagh, Dalia,Wiebelt, Manfred
Publisher : Intl Food Policy Res Inst
Page : 9 pages
File Size : 53,5 Mb
Release : 2020-11-03
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 8210379456XXX

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Impact of COVID-19 on the Jordanian economy: Economic sectors, food systems, and households by Raouf, Mariam,Elsabbagh, Dalia,Wiebelt, Manfred Pdf

Economic growth in Jordan potentially will come to a halt this year. This comes as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic outbreak. Government imposed an economic lockdown which restricted non-essential economic activities and people’s movement in order to contain the virus. A SAM multiplier model was used to estimate the economic impact of the lockdown and to explore potential recovery pathways for the Jordanian economy. Some of the key findings from this modeling exercise are: • National GDP is estimated to have fallen by 23 percent during the lockdown period. The services sector was hardest hit, seeing an estimated drop in output of almost 30 percent. • Food systems in Jordan are estimated to have experienced a reduction in output by almost 40 percent. • Employment losses during the lockdown were estimated at over 20 percent, mainly driven by job losses in services, followed by agriculture. • Household income fell on average by around one-fifth due to the lockdown, mainly driven by contraction in service sector activities, by slowdown in manufacturing activity, and by lower remittances from abroad. • GDP growth rates for Jordan’s economy will continue to be negative through 2020, ranging from -5.7 to -7.4 percent, depending on the speed of economic recovery. A slow pace of recovery is expected. This economic recovery offers opportunities for fostering sustainable economic transformation and structural change. Economic policies and incentives should be directed towards more economic diversification, greater resilience to withstand economic shocks, and job creation.

Author : Robinson, Sherman,Levy, Stephanie,Hernández, Victor,Davies, Rob,Gabriel, Sherwin,Arndt, Channing,van Seventer, Dirk,Pleitez, Marcelo
Publisher : Intl Food Policy Res Inst
Page : 56 pages
File Size : 48,8 Mb
Release : 2021-04-19
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 8210379456XXX

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Covid-19 and lockdown policies: A structural simulation model of a bottom-up recession in four countries by Robinson, Sherman,Levy, Stephanie,Hernández, Victor,Davies, Rob,Gabriel, Sherwin,Arndt, Channing,van Seventer, Dirk,Pleitez, Marcelo Pdf

This paper considers different approaches to modelling the economic impact of the Covid-19 pandemic/lockdown shocks. We review different modelling strategies and argue that, given the nature of the bottom-up recession caused by the pandemic/lockdowns, simulation models of the shocks should be based on a social accounting matrix (SAM) that includes both disaggregated sectoral data and the national accounts in a unified framework. SAM-based models have been widely used to analyze the impact of natural disasters, which are comparable to pandemic/lockdown shocks. The pandemic/lockdown shocks occurred rapidly, in weeks or months, not gradually over a year or more. In such a short period, adjustments through smooth changes in wages, prices and production methods are not plausible. Rather, initial adjustments occur through changes in quantities, altering demand and supply of commodities and employment in affected sectors. In this environment, we use a linear SAM-multiplier model that specifies a fixed-coefficient production technology, linear demand system, fixed savings rates, and fixed prices. There are three different kinds of sectoral shocks that are included in the model: (1) changes in demand due to household lockdown, (2) changes in supply due to industry lockdown, and (3) changes in demand due to induced macro shocks. At the detailed industry level, data are provided for all three shocks and the model imposes the largest of the three. We applied the model on a monthly time step for the period March to June 2020 for four countries: US, UK, Mexico, and South Africa. The models closely replicate observed macro results (GDP and employment) for the period. The results provide detailed structural information on the evolution of the different economies month-by-month and provide a framework for forward-looking scenario analysis. We also use the SAM-multiplier model to estimate the macro stimulus impacts of policies to support affected households. The model focuses attention on the structural features of the economy that define the multiplier process (who gets the additional income and what do they do with it) and provides a more nuanced analysis of the stimulus impact of income support programs than can be done with aggregated macro models.

Author : Diao, Xinshen,Aung, Nilar,Lwin, Wuit Yi,Zone, Phoo Pye,Nyunt, Khin Maung,Thurlow, James
Publisher : Intl Food Policy Res Inst
Page : 17 pages
File Size : 46,8 Mb
Release : 2020-05-29
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 8210379456XXX

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Assessing the impacts of COVID-19 on Myanmar’s economy: A Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) multiplier approach by Diao, Xinshen,Aung, Nilar,Lwin, Wuit Yi,Zone, Phoo Pye,Nyunt, Khin Maung,Thurlow, James Pdf

The measures taken by the Government of Myanmar to contain the transmission of COVID-19 are a necessary and appropriate response. In-depth analysis of measures of this magnitude on firms, households, government, and the economy as a whole is key to the design of policy interventions that can mitigate the economic losses and support a sustained and robust recovery. The economic losses to Myanmar’s economy in 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic will be huge – a drop in production on the order of between 6.4 and 9.0 trillion Kyat – and likely will push the economy into a recession or lead to stagnant growth, at best, for the year. Although lockdown policies provide exemptions for most agricultural activities, linkages to other sectors indirectly affect the agri-food sector significantly. The agricultural sector is expected to contract by between 1.1 and 2.4 percent in 2020, and recovery will be slow. Closure of factories will have a large negative economic impact due to the strong linkage effects between manufacturing and upstream primary agriculture and downstream marketing services. Reopening the manufacturing sector is crucial for economic recovery in Myanmar.

Author : Pauw, Karl,Smart, Jenny,Thurlow, James
Publisher : Intl Food Policy Res Inst
Page : 29 pages
File Size : 41,7 Mb
Release : 2021-06-04
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 8210379456XXX

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The short-run economic costs of COVID-19 in developing countries in 2020: A synthesis of results from a multi-country modeling exercise by Pauw, Karl,Smart, Jenny,Thurlow, James Pdf

As COVID-19 spread across the globe in early 2020, governments had to make difficult policy choices to balance the socioeconomic costs of social distancing and lockdown measures, on the one hand, and the human costs of increased morbidity and mortality of an unchecked pandemic, on the other. The challenge was particularly daunting for developing countries with their often illequipped and underfunded health systems coupled with general skepticism about the effectiveness of economic restrictions to curb viral spread, especially in densely populated informal urban communities (The Economist 2020). Poorer developing country populations also tend to be less resilient to income shocks, while the social protection measures needed to mitigate against income losses are costly. With developing country governments already heavily indebted before the pandemic (Onyekwena and Ekeruche 2019), and with further anticipated losses in tax revenues due to COVID-related economic restrictions, their ability to finance palliative measures without sacrificing much-needed, longer-term public investments has remained a major concern.