Estimating The Economic Costs Of Covid 19 In Nigeria

Author : Andam, Kwaw S.,Edeh, Hyacinth,Oboh, Victor,Pauw, Karl,Thurlow, James
Publisher : Intl Food Policy Res Inst
Page : 25 pages
File Size : 50,5 Mb
Release : 2020-07-21
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 8210379456XXX

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Estimating the economic costs of COVID-19 in Nigeria by Andam, Kwaw S.,Edeh, Hyacinth,Oboh, Victor,Pauw, Karl,Thurlow, James Pdf

In this paper we analyze the economic impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic and the policies adopted to curtail the spread of the disease in Nigeria. We carry out simulations using a multiplier model based on the 2018 Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) for Nigeria, which includes supply-use tables for 284 goods and services. The pandemic’s global reach and impact on the global economy combined with the response policies in Nigeria represent a large, sudden shock to the country’s economy. The SAM multiplier model is well-suited for measuring the short-term direct and indirect results of this type of shock because the SAM represents both the structure of the economy and the interactions among economic actors via commodity and factor markets. Our analysis focuses on the five-week lockdown implemented by the federal government across the Federal Capital Territory of Abuja and Lagos and Ogun states from late March to early May 2020, the federal lockdown for Kano from mid-April, and the state-level lockdowns that were implemented from mid-April for around seven weeks in Akwa Ibom, Borno, Ekiti, Kwara, Osun, Rivers, and Taraba states. We estimate that during the lockdown periods Nigeria’s GDP suffered a 34.1 percent loss due to COVID-19, amounting to USD 16 billion, with two-thirds of the losses coming from the services sector. The agriculture sector, which serves as the primary means of livelihood for most Nigerians, suffered a 13.1 percent loss in output (USD 1.2 billion). Although primary agricultural activities were excluded from the direct restrictions on economic activities imposed in the lockdown zones, the broader agri-food system was affected indirectly because of its linkages with the rest of the economy. We estimate that households lost on average 33 percent of their incomes during the period, with the heaviest losses occurring for rural non-farm and for urban households. The economic impacts of COVID-19 include a 14-percentage point temporary increase in the poverty headcount rate for Nigeria, implying that 27 million additional people fell below the poverty line during lockdown. Lastly, we consider economic recovery scenarios as the COVID-19 policies are being relaxed during the latter part of 2020. Our findings have implications for understanding the direct and indirect impacts of COVID-19, for policy design during the recovery period, and for planning future disease prevention measures while protecting livelihoods and maintaining economic growth.

Author : Amewu, Sena,Asante, Seth,Pauw, Karl,Thurlow, James
Publisher : Intl Food Policy Res Inst
Page : 24 pages
File Size : 51,8 Mb
Release : 2020-06-12
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 8210379456XXX

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The economic costs of COVID-19 in Sub-Saharan Africa: Insights from a simulation exercise for Ghana by Amewu, Sena,Asante, Seth,Pauw, Karl,Thurlow, James Pdf

The objective in this paper is to estimate the economic costs of COVID-19 policies and external shocks in a developing country context, with a focus on agri-food system impacts. Ghana is selected as a case study. Ghana recorded its first two cases of COVID-19 infection on 12 March 2020. The government responded by gradually introducing social distancing measures, travel restrictions, border closures, and eventually a partial, two-week “partial” lockdown in the country’s largest metropolitan areas of Accra and Kumasi. Social distancing measures have been enforced nationwide and include bans on conferences, workshops, and sporting and religious events, as well as the closure of bars and nightclubs. All educational institutions are also closed. The partial lockdown measures in urban areas directed all residents to remain home except for essential business, prohibited non-essential inter-city travel and transport, and only essential manufacturing and services operations were permitted to continue (The Presidency 2020). At the time the lockdown was announced, Ghana’s Ministry of Finance revised its GDP growth estimate for 2020 downwards from 6.8 to 1.5 percent (MoF 2020), although the Minister warned that growth could fall further if lockdown measures were extended. The lockdown was initially extended for a third week but was officially lifted on 20 April. Social distancing measures remain in place nationwide, although a gradual easing of restrictions commenced in June. Ghana’s borders remain closed at the time of writing.

Author : National Intelligence Council
Publisher : Cosimo Reports
Page : 158 pages
File Size : 54,6 Mb
Release : 2021-03
Category : Electronic
ISBN : 1646794974

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Global Trends 2040 by National Intelligence Council Pdf

"The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic marks the most significant, singular global disruption since World War II, with health, economic, political, and security implications that will ripple for years to come." -Global Trends 2040 (2021) Global Trends 2040-A More Contested World (2021), released by the US National Intelligence Council, is the latest report in its series of reports starting in 1997 about megatrends and the world's future. This report, strongly influenced by the COVID-19 pandemic, paints a bleak picture of the future and describes a contested, fragmented and turbulent world. It specifically discusses the four main trends that will shape tomorrow's world: - Demographics-by 2040, 1.4 billion people will be added mostly in Africa and South Asia. - Economics-increased government debt and concentrated economic power will escalate problems for the poor and middleclass. - Climate-a hotter world will increase water, food, and health insecurity. - Technology-the emergence of new technologies could both solve and cause problems for human life. Students of trends, policymakers, entrepreneurs, academics, journalists and anyone eager for a glimpse into the next decades, will find this report, with colored graphs, essential reading.

Author : Amare, Mulubrhan,Abay, Kibrom A.,Tiberti, Luca,Chamberlin, Jordan
Publisher : Intl Food Policy Res Inst
Page : 43 pages
File Size : 54,8 Mb
Release : 2020-08-11
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 8210379456XXX

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Impacts of COVID-19 on food security: Panel data evidence from Nigeria by Amare, Mulubrhan,Abay, Kibrom A.,Tiberti, Luca,Chamberlin, Jordan Pdf

This paper combines pre-pandemic face-to-face survey data with follow up phone surveys collected in April-May 2020 to quantify the overall and differential impacts of COVID-19 on household food security, labor market participation and local food prices in Nigeria. We exploit spatial variation in exposure to COVID-19 related infections and lockdown measures along with temporal differences in our outcomes of interest using a difference-in-difference approach. We find that those households exposed to higher COVID-19 cases or mobility lockdowns experience a significant increase in measures of food insecurity. Examining possible transmission channels for this effect, we find that COVID-19 significantly reduces labor market participation and increases food prices. We find that impacts differ by economic activities and households. For instance, lockdown measures increased households' experience of food insecurity by 12 percentage points and reduced the probability of participation in non-farm business activities by 13 percentage points. These lockdown measures have smaller impacts on wage-related activities and farming activities. In terms of food security, households relying on non-farm businesses, poorer households, those with school-aged children, and those living in remote and conflicted-affected zones have experienced relatively larger deteriorations in food insecurity. These findings can help inform immediate and medium-term policy responses, including social protection policies aiming at ameliorating the impacts of the pandemic, as well as guide targeting strategies of governments and international donor agencies by identifying the most impacted sub-populations.

Author : Andreas Velthuizen,Caroline Varin
Publisher : Taylor & Francis
Page : 170 pages
File Size : 55,5 Mb
Release : 2024-04-15
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 9781040014752

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Human Security and Epidemics in Africa by Andreas Velthuizen,Caroline Varin Pdf

This book examines the impact of epidemics in Africa, exploring some of the adaptation and crisis management strategies adopted to tackle COVID-19, Ebola, and HIV-AIDS. The authors reflect on lessons learned from solving complex problems and difficult decisions made by leaders on pandemic management to shape the security environment and, thus, the well-being of people living in Africa for years to come. Drawing on cases from across the continent, the book demonstrates that, significantly, during the COVID-19 pandemic, African countries and communities frequently displayed regional solidarity, creativity in decision-making, decisiveness in dealing with corruption and opportunism, and resilience and discipline in implementation. Adopting a human security framework, the authors share their lived experiences and explore the impact of epidemics on public policy decision-making, foreign policy implementation, global relations, collaboration in the community dimension, and, ultimately, the future of socio-economic development in Africa. This book will be a welcome addition for practitioners and researchers across the fields of security studies, health management, and African studies, making an essential contribution to the security discourse in a post-COVID world.

Author : Dean T. Jamison,Hellen Gelband,Susan Horton,Prabhat Jha,Charles N. Mock,Rachel Nugent
Publisher : World Bank Publications
Page : 426 pages
File Size : 41,7 Mb
Release : 2017-12-06
Category : Medical
ISBN : 9781464805288

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Disease Control Priorities, Third Edition (Volume 9) by Dean T. Jamison,Hellen Gelband,Susan Horton,Prabhat Jha,Charles N. Mock,Rachel Nugent Pdf

As the culminating volume in the DCP3 series, volume 9 will provide an overview of DCP3 findings and methods, a summary of messages and substantive lessons to be taken from DCP3, and a further discussion of cross-cutting and synthesizing topics across the first eight volumes. The introductory chapters (1-3) in this volume take as their starting point the elements of the Essential Packages presented in the overview chapters of each volume. First, the chapter on intersectoral policy priorities for health includes fiscal and intersectoral policies and assembles a subset of the population policies and applies strict criteria for a low-income setting in order to propose a "highest-priority" essential package. Second, the chapter on packages of care and delivery platforms for universal health coverage (UHC) includes health sector interventions, primarily clinical and public health services, and uses the same approach to propose a highest priority package of interventions and policies that meet similar criteria, provides cost estimates, and describes a pathway to UHC.

Author : Aragie, Emerta,Taffesse, Alemayehu Seyoum,Thurlow, James
Publisher : Intl Food Policy Res Inst
Page : 24 pages
File Size : 53,9 Mb
Release : 2020-12-09
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 8210379456XXX

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Assessing the short-term impacts of COVID-19 on Ethiopia’s economy: External and domestic shocks and pace of recovery by Aragie, Emerta,Taffesse, Alemayehu Seyoum,Thurlow, James Pdf

In this paper, we analyze the economic impacts of response measures adopted in Ethiopia to curtail the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic. We carry out simulations using an economywide multiplier model based on a 2017 Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) for the country that properly depicts interactions between economic agents. The pandemic’s impact on the global economy combined with disruptions it causes in Ethiopia represents a large, unprecedented shock to the country’s economy. In such situations, a SAM-based multiplier model provides an ideal tool for measuring the short-term direct and indirect impacts of a shock on an economic system since there is limited room for proper adjustment of economic decisions. We model the seven-week partial lockdown policy implemented in Ethiopia from mid-March to early May 2020. We also consider two possible economic recovery scenarios that may emerge as the COVID-19 control policies are relaxed during the latter part of 2020 in order to generate insights on the potential continuing impact of the virus at the end of 2020. Although the country took early swift measures, our assessment of the partial lockdown measures suggests that they were not as strict as those observed in other Africa countries. Accordingly, our estimates of the economic costs of COVID-19 on Ethiopia are significantly lower than those reported for other countries on the continent. We estimate that during the lockdown period Ethiopia’s GDP suffered a 14 percent loss (43.5 billion Birr or 1.9 billion USD) compared to a no-COVID case over the same period. Nearly two-thirds of the losses were in the services sector. Although no direct restrictions were imposed on the agriculture sector, which serves as the primary means of livelihood for most Ethiopians, the sector faced a 4.7 percent loss in output due to its linkages with the rest of the economy. Poor export performance due to a slowdown in global trade and restrictions on the transport sector also partly explain the decline in agricultural output. The broader agri-food system also was affected considerably because of its linkages with the rest of the economy. In terms of the welfare of Ethiopians, we estimate that the economic impacts during the lockdown caused 10.1 million additional people to fall below the poverty line. These findings have implications for better understanding the direct and indirect impacts of COVID-19 and for policy design during the recovery period to return Ethiopia’s economy to a normal growth trajectory and to protect the livelihoods of the most vulnerable in the process.

Author : The World Bank
Publisher : World Bank Publications
Page : 106 pages
File Size : 46,8 Mb
Release : 2014-11-26
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781464804229

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The Economic Impact of the 2014 Ebola Epidemic by The World Bank Pdf

Beyond the terrible toll in human lives and suffering, the Ebola epidemic currently afflicting West Africa is already having a measurable economic impact. This report provides a systematic analysis of the channels of economic impact and the likely magnitude of that impact for Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone, as well as West Africa as a whole.

Author : B. S. C. UZOCHUKWU
Publisher : World Health Organization
Page : 32 pages
File Size : 48,6 Mb
Release : 2024-06-06
Category : Medical
ISBN : 9789240088689

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Nigeria: a primary health care case study in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic by B. S. C. UZOCHUKWU Pdf

This case study examines country-level primary health care (PHC) systems in Nigeria. The case study is part of a collection of case studies providing critical insights into key PHC strengths, challenges and lessons learned using the Astana PHC framework, which considers integrated health services, multisectoral policy and action, and people and communities. Led by in-country research teams, the case studies update and extend the Primary Health Care Systems (PRIMASYS) case studies commissioned by the Alliance in 2015.

Author : Giray Gozgor,Chi Lau
Publisher : Frontiers Media SA
Page : 240 pages
File Size : 49,9 Mb
Release : 2021-11-24
Category : Medical
ISBN : 9782889716784

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Economic Effects of COVID-19 Related Uncertainty Shocks by Giray Gozgor,Chi Lau Pdf

Author : Aragie, Emerta,Taffesse, Alemayehu Seyoum,Tamru, Seneshaw
Publisher : Intl Food Policy Res Inst
Page : 17 pages
File Size : 41,9 Mb
Release : 2020-12-09
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 8210379456XXX

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The short-term impact of COVID-19 on Ethiopia’s economy through external sector channels: An economywide multiplier model analysis by Aragie, Emerta,Taffesse, Alemayehu Seyoum,Tamru, Seneshaw Pdf

The COVID-19 pandemic is expected to considerably affect the Ethiopian economy directly and indirectly due to global shocks and to the different restrictive preventative measures the country is taking. We analyze these economic effects using multisector economywide income multiplier models built on the two latest Social Accounting Matrices (SAMs) developed for Ethiopia. Three external sector channels are the focus of the analysis: commodity exports, strategic imports, and remittances. Results indicate that in the absence of any policy responses, the Ethiopian economy is expected to experience a loss of approximately 4.3 to 5.5 percent of its annual GDP due to exports, strategic imports, and remittances that are one-third lower relative to the no-COVID situation over a period of six-months. This translates into estimated reductions in labor income of between 4.2 and 5.2 percent. The SAM multiplier model estimates also imply that these negative shocks lead to household income losses that amount to between 3.9 and 6.4 percent. In particular, the urban poor will be the most affected as they lose real incomes in the range of 6.6 to 8.5 percent. These income losses are estimated to result in a 3.5 percentage point rise in the national poverty headcount.

Author : Evans Osabuohien,Gbadebo Odularu,Daniel Ufua,Romanus Osabohien
Publisher : Emerald Group Publishing
Page : 284 pages
File Size : 47,7 Mb
Release : 2022-05-23
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781801176880

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COVID-19 in the African Continent by Evans Osabuohien,Gbadebo Odularu,Daniel Ufua,Romanus Osabohien Pdf

COVID-19 in the African Continent examines the development, achievements, and challenges that have resulted owing to COVID-19 pandemic and how these precarious socioeconomic situations are being managed in African countries.

Author : Stephen Broadberry,Mark Harrison
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
Page : 363 pages
File Size : 45,9 Mb
Release : 2005-09-29
Category : History
ISBN : 9781139448352

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The Economics of World War I by Stephen Broadberry,Mark Harrison Pdf

This unique volume offers a definitive new history of European economies at war from 1914 to 1918. It studies how European economies mobilised for war, how existing economic institutions stood up under the strain, how economic development influenced outcomes and how wartime experience influenced post-war economic growth. Leading international experts provide the first systematic comparison of economies at war between 1914 and 1918 based on the best available data for Britain, Germany, France, Russia, the USA, Italy, Turkey, Austria-Hungary and the Netherlands. The editors' overview draws some stark lessons about the role of economic development, the importance of markets and the damage done by nationalism and protectionism. A companion volume to the acclaimed The Economics of World War II, this is a major contribution to our understanding of total war.

Author : Headey, Derek D.,Goudet, Sophie,Lambrecht, Isabel,Oo, Than Zaw,Maffioli, Elisa Maria,Toth, Russell
Publisher : Intl Food Policy Res Inst
Page : 28 pages
File Size : 41,6 Mb
Release : 2020-10-07
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 8210379456XXX

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Poverty and food insecurity during COVID-19: Telephone survey evidence from mothers in rural and urban Myanmar by Headey, Derek D.,Goudet, Sophie,Lambrecht, Isabel,Oo, Than Zaw,Maffioli, Elisa Maria,Toth, Russell Pdf

Myanmar had one of the lowest confirmed COVID-19 caseloads in the world in mid-2020 and was one of the few developing countries not projected to go into economic recession. However, macroeconomic projections are likely to be a poor guide to individual and household welfare in a fast-moving crisis that has involved disruption to an unusually wide range of sectors and livelihoods. To explore the impacts of COVID-19 disruptions on household poverty and coping strategies, as well as maternal food insecurity experiences, this study used a telephone survey conducted in June and July 2020 covering 2,017 mothers of nutritionally vulnerable young children in urban Yangon and rural villages of Myanmar’s Dry Zone. Stratifying results by location, livelihoods, and asset-levels, and using retrospective questions on pre-COVID-19 incomes and various COVID-19 impacts, we find that the vast majority of households have been adversely affected from loss of income and employment. Over three-quarters cite income/job losses as the main impact of COVID-19 – median incomes declined by one third and $1.90/day income-based poverty rose by around 27 percentage points between January and June 2020. Falling into poverty was most strongly associated with loss of employment (including migrant employment), but also with recent childbirth. The poor commonly coped with income losses through taking loans/credit, while better-off households drew down on savings and reduced non-food expenditures. Self-reported food insecurity experiences were much more common in the urban sample than in the rural sample, even though income-based and asset-based poverty were more prevalent in rural areas. In urban areas, around one quarter of respondents were worried about food quantities and quality, and around 10 percent stated that there were times when they had run out of food or gone hungry. Respondents who stated that their household had lost income or experienced food supply problems due to COVID-19 were more likely to report a variety of different food insecurity experiences. These results raise the concern that the welfare impacts of the COVID-19 crisis are much more serious and widespread than macroeconomic projections would suggest. Loss of employment and casual labor are major drivers of increasing poverty. Consequently, economic recovery strategies must emphasize job creation to revitalize damaged livelihoods. However, a strengthened social protection strategy should also be a critical component of economic recovery to prevent adversely affected households from falling into poverty traps and to avert the worst forms of food insecurity and malnutrition, particularly among households with pregnant women and young children. The recent second wave of COVID-19 infections in Myanmar from mid-August onwards makes the expansion of social protection even more imperative.

Author : Economic Commission for Africa
Publisher : United Nations
Page : 150 pages
File Size : 55,9 Mb
Release : 2022-07-06
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9789210018265

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Economic Report on Africa 2021 by Economic Commission for Africa Pdf

The report applies a poverty-vulnerability-resilience framework to examine the impact of COVID-19 on household well-being in Africa. The report emphasizes the dynamic nature of poverty since some of the poor are not poor all the time, though they are often vulnerable because of exposure to a multitude of risks that can push them below the poverty line and increase chronic poverty. Reducing vulnerability to risks is critical for enhancing well-being and reducing future poverty.