Evaluation In The Face Of Uncertainty

Author : Jonathan A. Morell
Publisher : Guilford Press
Page : 321 pages
File Size : 46,5 Mb
Release : 2011-06-10
Category : Psychology
ISBN : 9781606238592

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Evaluation in the Face of Uncertainty by Jonathan A. Morell Pdf

Unexpected events during an evaluation all too often send evaluators into crisis mode. This insightful book provides a systematic framework for diagnosing, anticipating, accommodating, and reining in costs of evaluation surprises. The result is evaluation that is better from a methodological point of view, and more responsive to stakeholders. Jonathan A. Morell identifies the types of surprises that arise at different stages of a program's life cycle and that may affect different aspects of the evaluation, from stakeholder relationships to data quality, methodology, funding, deadlines, information use, and program outcomes. His analysis draws on 18 concise cases from well-known researchers in a variety of evaluation settings. Morell offers guidelines for responding effectively to surprises and for determining the risks and benefits of potential solutions.

Author : Institute of Medicine,Board on Population Health and Public Health Practice,Committee on Decision Making Under Uncertainty
Publisher : National Academies Press
Page : 281 pages
File Size : 46,6 Mb
Release : 2013-06-20
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 9780309130349

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Environmental Decisions in the Face of Uncertainty by Institute of Medicine,Board on Population Health and Public Health Practice,Committee on Decision Making Under Uncertainty Pdf

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is one of several federal agencies responsible for protecting Americans against significant risks to human health and the environment. As part of that mission, EPA estimates the nature, magnitude, and likelihood of risks to human health and the environment; identifies the potential regulatory actions that will mitigate those risks and protect public health1 and the environment; and uses that information to decide on appropriate regulatory action. Uncertainties, both qualitative and quantitative, in the data and analyses on which these decisions are based enter into the process at each step. As a result, the informed identification and use of the uncertainties inherent in the process is an essential feature of environmental decision making. EPA requested that the Institute of Medicine (IOM) convene a committee to provide guidance to its decision makers and their partners in states and localities on approaches to managing risk in different contexts when uncertainty is present. It also sought guidance on how information on uncertainty should be presented to help risk managers make sound decisions and to increase transparency in its communications with the public about those decisions. Given that its charge is not limited to human health risk assessment and includes broad questions about managing risks and decision making, in this report the committee examines the analysis of uncertainty in those other areas in addition to human health risks. Environmental Decisions in the Face of Uncertainty explains the statement of task and summarizes the findings of the committee.

Author : Sam L. Savage
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
Page : 423 pages
File Size : 49,8 Mb
Release : 2012-03-13
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781118373583

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The Flaw of Averages by Sam L. Savage Pdf

A must-read for anyone who makes business decisions that have a major financial impact. As the recent collapse on Wall Street shows, we are often ill-equipped to deal with uncertainty and risk. Yet every day we base our personal and business plans on uncertainties, whether they be next month’s sales, next year’s costs, or tomorrow’s stock price. In The Flaw of Averages, Sam Savageknown for his creative exposition of difficult subjects describes common avoidable mistakes in assessing risk in the face of uncertainty. Along the way, he shows why plans based on average assumptions are wrong, on average, in areas as diverse as healthcare, accounting, the War on Terror, and climate change. In his chapter on Sex and the Central Limit Theorem, he bravely grasps the literary third rail of gender differences. Instead of statistical jargon, Savage presents complex concepts in plain English. In addition, a tightly integrated web site contains numerous animations and simulations to further connect the seat of the reader’s intellect to the seat of their pants. The Flaw of Averages typically results when someone plugs a single number into a spreadsheet to represent an uncertain future quantity. Savage finishes the book with a discussion of the emerging field of Probability Management, which cures this problem though a new technology that can pack thousands of numbers into a single spreadsheet cell. Praise for The Flaw of Averages “Statistical uncertainties are pervasive in decisions we make every day in business, government, and our personal lives. Sam Savage’s lively and engaging book gives any interested reader the insight and the tools to deal effectively with those uncertainties. I highly recommend The Flaw of Averages.” —William J. Perry, Former U.S. Secretary of Defense “Enterprise analysis under uncertainty has long been an academic ideal. . . . In this profound and entertaining book, Professor Savage shows how to make all this practical, practicable, and comprehensible.” —Harry Markowitz, Nobel Laureate in Economics

Author : Fred H. Kulhawy
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 0 pages
File Size : 40,7 Mb
Release : 2013
Category : Engineering geology
ISBN : 0784412766

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Foundation Engineering in the Face of Uncertainty by Fred H. Kulhawy Pdf

WIDTH: 405pt; BORDER-COLLAPSE: collapse border=0 cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width=540> WIDTH: 405pt; mso-width-source: userset; mso-width-alt: 19748 width=540> HEIGHT: 31.5pt height=42> BORDER-BOTTOM: #f0f0f0; BORDER-LEFT: #f0f0f0; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; WIDTH: 405pt; HEIGHT: 31.5pt; BORDER-TOP: #f0f0f0; BORDER-RIGHT: #f0f0f0 class=xl65 height=42 width=540>GSP 229 contains 54 papers on risk and uncertainty in foundation engineering presented in honor of Fred H. Kulhawy.

Author : György Bardossy,János Fodor
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
Page : 250 pages
File Size : 54,5 Mb
Release : 2004-01-22
Category : Nature
ISBN : 3540206221

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Evaluation of Uncertainties and Risks in Geology by György Bardossy,János Fodor Pdf

It is a well known fact that geological investigations are characterized by particularly high incertainties. Furthermore,decisions related to geology, such as mineral exploration, mining investmentsetc. are connected with higher risks than similar decisions in the branches of industry and economy. Finally there are a number of highly dangerous natural hazards, e.g. earthquakes, volcanic activities, inundations etc. that are directly depending on geological processes. It is of paramount interest to study them, to describe them, to understand their origin and - if - possible to predict them. Uncertainties, geological risks and natural hazards are often mentioned in geological text-books, conference proceedings and articles, butno overall evaluation of them has been written so far.The complexity of these problems requires a thorough mathematical treatment.This book has been written with the purpose of presenting a detailed evaluation of the entire problem, discussing it from both the geological and the mathematical aspects.

Author : Michael Quinn Patton
Publisher : Guilford Press
Page : 375 pages
File Size : 41,5 Mb
Release : 2010-06-15
Category : Psychology
ISBN : 9781609180911

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Developmental Evaluation by Michael Quinn Patton Pdf

Developmental evaluation (DE) offers a powerful approach to monitoring and supporting social innovations by working in partnership with program decision makers. In this book, eminent authority Michael Quinn Patton shows how to conduct evaluations within a DE framework. Patton draws on insights about complex dynamic systems, uncertainty, nonlinearity, and emergence. He illustrates how DE can be used for a range of purposes: ongoing program development, adapting effective principles of practice to local contexts, generating innovations and taking them to scale, and facilitating rapid response in crisis situations. Students and practicing evaluators will appreciate the book's extensive case examples and stories, cartoons, clear writing style, "closer look" sidebars, and summary tables. Provided is essential guidance for making evaluations useful, practical, and credible in support of social change. See also Developmental Evaluation Exemplars, edited by Michael Quinn Patton, Kate McKegg, and Nan Wehipeihana, which presents 12 in-depth case studies.

Author : National Research Council,Division on Earth and Life Studies,Board on Environmental Studies and Toxicology,Commission on Life Sciences,Committee on Risk Assessment of Hazardous Air Pollutants
Publisher : National Academies Press
Page : 668 pages
File Size : 52,8 Mb
Release : 1994-01-01
Category : Science
ISBN : 9780309048941

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Science and Judgment in Risk Assessment by National Research Council,Division on Earth and Life Studies,Board on Environmental Studies and Toxicology,Commission on Life Sciences,Committee on Risk Assessment of Hazardous Air Pollutants Pdf

The public depends on competent risk assessment from the federal government and the scientific community to grapple with the threat of pollution. When risk reports turn out to be overblownâ€"or when risks are overlookedâ€"public skepticism abounds. This comprehensive and readable book explores how the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) can improve its risk assessment practices, with a focus on implementation of the 1990 Clean Air Act Amendments. With a wealth of detailed information, pertinent examples, and revealing analysis, the volume explores the "default option" and other basic concepts. It offers two views of EPA operations: The first examines how EPA currently assesses exposure to hazardous air pollutants, evaluates the toxicity of a substance, and characterizes the risk to the public. The second, more holistic, view explores how EPA can improve in several critical areas of risk assessment by focusing on cross-cutting themes and incorporating more scientific judgment. This comprehensive volume will be important to the EPA and other agencies, risk managers, environmental advocates, scientists, faculty, students, and concerned individuals.

Author : Hubert J. M. Hermans
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
Page : 349 pages
File Size : 49,8 Mb
Release : 2022-01-13
Category : Psychology
ISBN : 9781108844406

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Liberation in the Face of Uncertainty by Hubert J. M. Hermans Pdf

This book uses Dialogical Self Theory to respond to the challenges of climate change, well-being, and disenchantment of the world.

Author : Institute of Medicine,Board on Health Sciences Policy,Forum on Drug Discovery, Development, and Translation
Publisher : National Academies Press
Page : 150 pages
File Size : 42,9 Mb
Release : 2014-12-19
Category : Medical
ISBN : 9780309310031

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Characterizing and Communicating Uncertainty in the Assessment of Benefits and Risks of Pharmaceutical Products by Institute of Medicine,Board on Health Sciences Policy,Forum on Drug Discovery, Development, and Translation Pdf

Despite the extensive body of evidence that informs regulatory decisions on pharmaceutical products, significant uncertainties persist, including the underlying variability in human biology, factors associated with the chemistry of a drug, and limitations in the research and clinical trial process itself that might limit the generalizability of results. As a result, regulatory reviewers are consistently required to draw conclusions about a drug's safety and efficacy from imperfect data. Efforts are underway within the drug development community to enhance the evaluation and communication of the benefits and risks associated with pharmaceutical products, aimed at increasing the predictability, transparency, and efficiency of pharmaceutical regulatory decision making. Effectively communicating regulatory decisions necessarily includes explanation of the impact of uncertainty on decision making. On February 12 and May 12, 2014, the Institute of Medicine's Forum on Drug Discovery, Development, and Translation held public workshops to advance the development of more systematic and structured approaches to characterize and communicate the sources of uncertainty in the assessment of benefits and risks, and to consider their implications for pharmaceutical regulatory decisions. Workshop presentations and discussions on February 12 were convened to explore the science of identifying and characterizing uncertainty in scientific evidence and approaches to translate uncertainties into decisions that reflect the values of stakeholders. The May 12 workshop presentations and discussions explored tools and approaches to communicating about scientific uncertainties to a range of stakeholders in the drug development process. Characterizing and Communicating Uncertainty in the Assessment of Benefits and Risks of Pharmaceutical Products summarizes the presentation and discussion of both events. This report explores potential analytical and communication approaches and identifies key considerations on their development, evaluation, and incorporation into pharmaceutical benefit- risk assessment throughout the entire drug development lifecycle.

Author : Dennis J. Paustenbach
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
Page : 1319 pages
File Size : 51,5 Mb
Release : 2024-04-15
Category : Technology & Engineering
ISBN : 9781119742968

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Human and Ecological Risk Assessment by Dennis J. Paustenbach Pdf

Understand the fundamentals of human risk assessment with this introduction and reference Human risk assessments are a precondition for virtually all industrial action or environmental regulation, all the more essential in a world where chemical and environmental hazards are becoming more abundant. These documents catalog potential environmental, toxicological, ecological, or other harms resulting from a particular hazard, from chemical spills to construction projects to dangerous workplaces. They turn on a number of variables, of which the most significant is the degree of human exposure to the hazardous agent or process. Human and Ecological Risk Assessment combines the virtues of a textbook and reference work to introduce and analyze these vital documents. Beginning with the foundational theory of human health risk assessment, it then supplies case studies and detailed analysis illustrating the practice of producing risk assessment documents. Fully updated and authored by leading authorities in the field, the result is an indispensable work. Readers of the second edition of Human and Ecological Risk Assessment will also find: Over 40 entirely new case studies reflecting the latest in risk assessment practice Detailed discussion of hazards including air emissions, contaminated food and soil, hazardous waste sites, and many more Case studies from multiple countries to reflect diverse international standards Human and Ecological Risk Assessment is ideal for professionals and advanced graduate students in toxicology, industrial hygiene, occupational medicine, environmental science, and all related subjects.

Author : Institute of Medicine,Board on Population Health and Public Health Practice,Committee on Decision Making Under Uncertainty
Publisher : National Academies Press
Page : 280 pages
File Size : 51,6 Mb
Release : 2013-05-20
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 9780309290234

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Environmental Decisions in the Face of Uncertainty by Institute of Medicine,Board on Population Health and Public Health Practice,Committee on Decision Making Under Uncertainty Pdf

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is one of several federal agencies responsible for protecting Americans against significant risks to human health and the environment. As part of that mission, EPA estimates the nature, magnitude, and likelihood of risks to human health and the environment; identifies the potential regulatory actions that will mitigate those risks and protect public health1 and the environment; and uses that information to decide on appropriate regulatory action. Uncertainties, both qualitative and quantitative, in the data and analyses on which these decisions are based enter into the process at each step. As a result, the informed identification and use of the uncertainties inherent in the process is an essential feature of environmental decision making. EPA requested that the Institute of Medicine (IOM) convene a committee to provide guidance to its decision makers and their partners in states and localities on approaches to managing risk in different contexts when uncertainty is present. It also sought guidance on how information on uncertainty should be presented to help risk managers make sound decisions and to increase transparency in its communications with the public about those decisions. Given that its charge is not limited to human health risk assessment and includes broad questions about managing risks and decision making, in this report the committee examines the analysis of uncertainty in those other areas in addition to human health risks. Environmental Decisions in the Face of Uncertainty explains the statement of task and summarizes the findings of the committee.

Author : Anonim
Publisher : DIANE Publishing
Page : 119 pages
File Size : 47,8 Mb
Release : 2024-06-10
Category : Electronic
ISBN : 9781428913929

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An Introduction to Risk and Uncertainty in the Evaluation of Environmental Investments by Anonim Pdf

Author : Burt Perrin,Tony Tyrrell
Publisher : Routledge
Page : 225 pages
File Size : 54,6 Mb
Release : 2020-11-29
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 9781000260144

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Changing Bureaucracies by Burt Perrin,Tony Tyrrell Pdf

In Changing Bureaucracies, international experts provide an unparalleled look at how public sector bureaucracies can better adapt to the reality of unprecedented levels of uncertainty and complexity, and how they can better respond to the emerging needs and demands of citizens and beneficiaries. In particular, they discuss in detail how evaluation can play an important role in aiding bureaucracies in adapting, while noting that the value of evaluation is not at all automatic. Written in a clear and accessible prose, the contributors identify stability as a strength of bureaucratic structures, although adaptability is required in order to remain relevant. They also emphasize the need for bureaucratic rules and practices to be open to examination, such as through evaluation, noting that these rules may take on a life of their own, increasing distrust and conflicting with a meaningful focus on how outcomes and impacts benefit citizens. The book concludes with guidance for both evaluators and for public sector leaders about steps that they can take to improve the responsiveness and relevance of public sector organizations. Pioneering the provision of reflections on how evaluation can play an important role in aiding bureaucracies in adapting, Changing Bureaucracies is an important acquisition for public sector leaders, evaluators, evaluation managers and commissioners and academics alike.

Author : Frank Kreith,D. Yogi Goswami
Publisher : CRC Press
Page : 442 pages
File Size : 48,6 Mb
Release : 2007-07-06
Category : Science
ISBN : 9781420044300

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Energy Management and Conservation Handbook by Frank Kreith,D. Yogi Goswami Pdf

While researchers work overtime to create new technologies and methods of providing energy, it is critical that modern industry makes the most efficient use of the energy that is currently available. The Energy Management and Conservation Handbook offers expert guidance on the planning and design of “green” technologies. It focuses on management strategies for better utilization of energy in buildings and industry as well as ways of improving energy efficiency at the end use. Renowned authorities from around the globe share insights and modern points of view on a broad spectrum of topics. Summarizing proven energy efficient technologies in the building sector, the book includes examples that highlight the cost-effectiveness of some of these technologies. It introduces basic methods for designing and sizing cost-effective systems and determining whether it is economically efficient to invest in specific energy efficiency or renewable energy projects. It provides guidance for computing measures of economic performance for relatively simple investment choices and the fundamentals for dealing with complex investment decisions. The book also describes energy audit producers commonly used to improve the energy efficiency of residential and commercial buildings as well as industrial facilities. After developing the basics of HVAC control, the book explores operational needs for successfully maintained operations. It describes the essentials of control systems for heating, ventilating, and air conditioning of buildings designed for energy conserving operation. The book also defines demand-side management, covers its role in integrated resource planning, and delineates the main elements of its programs. The book demonstrates these concepts with case studies of successful demand-side management programs. These features and more provide the tools necessary to improve energy management leading to higher energy efficiencies.

Author : Lawrence C. Becker,Charlotte B. Becker
Publisher : Taylor & Francis
Page : 734 pages
File Size : 52,8 Mb
Release : 2001
Category : Philosophy
ISBN : 0415936756

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Encyclopedia of Ethics: P-W by Lawrence C. Becker,Charlotte B. Becker Pdf

A revised, expanded and updated edition with contributions by 325 renowned authorities in the field of ethics. All of the original articles have been newly peer-reviewed and revised, bibliographies have been updated throughout, and the overall design of the work has been enhanced for easier access to cross-references and other reference features.