Expert Judgment And Expert Systems

Author : Jeryl L. Mumpower,Lawrence D. Phillips,Ortwin Renn,V.R.R. Uppuluri
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
Page : 360 pages
File Size : 49,5 Mb
Release : 2012-12-06
Category : Computers
ISBN : 9783642866791

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Expert Judgment and Expert Systems by Jeryl L. Mumpower,Lawrence D. Phillips,Ortwin Renn,V.R.R. Uppuluri Pdf

This volume is an outgrowth of a NATO Advanced Research Workshop on "Expert Judgment and Expert Systems," held in Porto, Portugal, August 1986. Support for the Workshop was provided by the NATO Division of Scientific Affairs, the U.S. Army Research Institute, and the U.S. National Science Foundation. The Workshop brought together researchers from the fields of psychology, decision analysis, and artificial intelligence. The purposes were to assess similarities, differences, and complementarities among the three approaches to the study of expert judgment; to evaluate their relative strengths and weaknesses; and to propose profitable linkages between them. Each of the papers in the present volume is directed toward one or more of those goals. We wish to express our appreciation and thanks to the following persons for their support and assistance: John Adams, Vincent T. Covello, Luis da Cunha, Claire Jeseo, B. Michael Kantrowitz, Margaret Lally, Judith Orasanu, R. M. Rodrigues, and Sandor P. Schuman.

Author : Mary A. Meyer,Jane M. Booker
Publisher : SIAM
Page : 471 pages
File Size : 55,6 Mb
Release : 2001-01-01
Category : Mathematics
ISBN : 9780898714746

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Eliciting and Analyzing Expert Judgment by Mary A. Meyer,Jane M. Booker Pdf

Expert judgment is invaluable for assessing products, systems, and situations for which measurements or test results are sparse or nonexistent. Eliciting and Analyzing Expert Judgment: A Practical Guide takes the reader step by step through the techniques of eliciting and analyzing expert judgment, with special attention given to helping the reader develop elicitation methods and tools adaptable to a variety of unique situations and work areas. The analysis procedures presented in the book may require a basic understanding of statistics and probabilities, but the authors have provided detailed explanations of the techniques used and have taken special care to define all statistical jargon. Originally published in 1991, this book is designed so that those familiar with the use of expert judgment can quickly find the material appropriate for their advanced background.

Author : Paul Szwed
Publisher : Project Management Institute
Page : 128 pages
File Size : 45,6 Mb
Release : 2016-04-01
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781628251463

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Expert Judgment in Project Management by Paul Szwed Pdf

Expert judgment is a major source of information that can provide vital input to project managers, who must ensure that projects are completed successfully, on time, and on budget. Too often, however, companies lack detailed processes for finding and consulting with experts—making it hard to match the required know-how with the project at hand. In Expert Judgment in Project Management: Narrowing the Theory-Practice Gap, Paul S. Szwed provides research that will help project managers become more adept at using expert judgment effectively.

Author : F. Bolger,G. Wright
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
Page : 279 pages
File Size : 43,8 Mb
Release : 2007-08-19
Category : Psychology
ISBN : 9780585342900

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Expertise and Decision Support by F. Bolger,G. Wright Pdf

This volume brings together a range of contributors from Europe and North America. All contributions were especially commissioned with a view to e- cidating a major multidisciplinary topic that is of concern to both academics and practitioners. The focus of the book is on expert judgment and its interaction with decision support systems. In the first part, the nature of expertise is discussed and characteristics of expert judges are described. Issues concemed with the eval- tion of judgment in the psychological laboratory are assessed and contrasted with studies of expert judgment in ecologically valid contexts. In addition, issues concerned with eliciting and validating expert knowledge are discussed. Dem- strations of good judgmental performance are linked to situational factors such as feedback cycles, and measurement of coherence and reliability in expert ju- ment is introduced as a baseline determinant of good judgmental performance. Issues concerned with the representation of elicited expert knowledge in kno- edge-based systems are evaluated and methods are described that have been shown to produce improvements in judgmental performance. Behavioral and mathematical ways of combining judgments from multiple experts are compared and contrasted. Finally, the issues developed in the preceding contributions are focused on current controversies in decision support. Expert judgment is utilized as a major input into decision analysis, forecasting with statistical models, and expert s- tems.

Author : Philip E. Tetlock
Publisher : Princeton University Press
Page : 368 pages
File Size : 52,6 Mb
Release : 2017-08-29
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 9781400888818

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Expert Political Judgment by Philip E. Tetlock Pdf

Since its original publication, Expert Political Judgment by New York Times bestselling author Philip Tetlock has established itself as a contemporary classic in the literature on evaluating expert opinion. Tetlock first discusses arguments about whether the world is too complex for people to find the tools to understand political phenomena, let alone predict the future. He evaluates predictions from experts in different fields, comparing them to predictions by well-informed laity or those based on simple extrapolation from current trends. He goes on to analyze which styles of thinking are more successful in forecasting. Classifying thinking styles using Isaiah Berlin's prototypes of the fox and the hedgehog, Tetlock contends that the fox--the thinker who knows many little things, draws from an eclectic array of traditions, and is better able to improvise in response to changing events--is more successful in predicting the future than the hedgehog, who knows one big thing, toils devotedly within one tradition, and imposes formulaic solutions on ill-defined problems. He notes a perversely inverse relationship between the best scientific indicators of good judgement and the qualities that the media most prizes in pundits--the single-minded determination required to prevail in ideological combat. Clearly written and impeccably researched, the book fills a huge void in the literature on evaluating expert opinion. It will appeal across many academic disciplines as well as to corporations seeking to develop standards for judging expert decision-making. Now with a new preface in which Tetlock discusses the latest research in the field, the book explores what constitutes good judgment in predicting future events and looks at why experts are often wrong in their forecasts.

Author : Jane M. Booker
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 128 pages
File Size : 51,6 Mb
Release : 1991
Category : Decision making
ISBN : OCLC:176049968

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Eliciting and Analyzing Expert Judgment by Jane M. Booker Pdf

Author : Mary A. Meyer
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 399 pages
File Size : 46,7 Mb
Release : 1990
Category : Decision making
ISBN : 0160190401

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Eliciting and Analyzing Expert Judgement by Mary A. Meyer Pdf

Author : C. Tasso,G. Guida
Publisher : Elsevier
Page : 447 pages
File Size : 51,5 Mb
Release : 2014-06-28
Category : Computers
ISBN : 9781483297774

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Topics in Expert System Design by C. Tasso,G. Guida Pdf

Expert Systems are so far the most promising achievement of artificial intelligence research. Decision making, planning, design, control, supervision and diagnosis are areas where they are showing great potential. However, the establishment of expert system technology and its actual industrial impact are still limited by the lack of a sound, general and reliable design and construction methodology. This book has a dual purpose: to offer concrete guidelines and tools to the designers of expert systems, and to promote basic and applied research on methodologies and tools. It is a coordinated collection of papers from researchers in the USA and Europe, examining important and emerging topics, methodological advances and practical experience obtained in specific applications. Each paper includes a survey introduction, and a comprehensive bibliography is provided.

Author : U.S. Army Research Institute for the Behavioral and Social Sciences
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 216 pages
File Size : 48,9 Mb
Release : 1987
Category : Military research
ISBN : OSU:32435086519691

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Annual Report by U.S. Army Research Institute for the Behavioral and Social Sciences Pdf

Author : Adedeji Bodunde Badiru,John Cheung
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
Page : 313 pages
File Size : 46,6 Mb
Release : 2002-10-08
Category : Computers
ISBN : 9780471275343

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Fuzzy Engineering Expert Systems with Neural Network Applications by Adedeji Bodunde Badiru,John Cheung Pdf

Provides an up-to-date integration of expert systems with fuzzy logic and neural networks. Includes coverage of simulation models not present in other books. Presents cases and examples taken from the authors' experience in research and applying the technology to real-world situations.

Author : Cornelius T. Leondes
Publisher : Elsevier
Page : 2125 pages
File Size : 55,6 Mb
Release : 2001-09-26
Category : Computers
ISBN : 9780080531458

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Expert Systems by Cornelius T. Leondes Pdf

This six-volume set presents cutting-edge advances and applications of expert systems. Because expert systems combine the expertise of engineers, computer scientists, and computer programmers, each group will benefit from buying this important reference work. An "expert system" is a knowledge-based computer system that emulates the decision-making ability of a human expert. The primary role of the expert system is to perform appropriate functions under the close supervision of the human, whose work is supported by that expert system. In the reverse, this same expert system can monitor and double check the human in the performance of a task. Human-computer interaction in our highly complex world requires the development of a wide array of expert systems. Expert systems techniques and applications are presented for a diverse array of topics including Experimental design and decision support The integration of machine learning with knowledge acquisition for the design of expert systems Process planning in design and manufacturing systems and process control applications Knowledge discovery in large-scale knowledge bases Robotic systems Geograhphic information systems Image analysis, recognition and interpretation Cellular automata methods for pattern recognition Real-time fault tolerant control systems CAD-based vision systems in pattern matching processes Financial systems Agricultural applications Medical diagnosis

Author : A. Kidd
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
Page : 203 pages
File Size : 51,5 Mb
Release : 2012-12-06
Category : Psychology
ISBN : 9781461318231

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Knowledge Acquisition for Expert Systems by A. Kidd Pdf

Building an expert system involves eliciting, analyzing, and interpreting the knowledge that a human expert uses when solving problems. Expe rience has shown that this process of "knowledge acquisition" is both difficult and time consuming and is often a major bottleneck in the production of expert systems. Unfortunately, an adequate theoretical basis for knowledge acquisition has not yet been established. This re quires a classification of knowledge domains and problem-solving tasks and an improved understanding of the relationship between knowledge structures in human and machine. In the meantime, expert system builders need access to information about the techniques currently being employed and their effectiveness in different applications. The aim of this book, therefore, is to draw on the experience of AI scientists, cognitive psychologists, and knowledge engineers in discussing particular acquisition techniques and providing practical advice on their application. Each chapter provides a detailed description of a particular technique or methodology applied within a selected task domain. The relative strengths and weaknesses of the tech nique are summarized at the end of each chapter with some suggested guidelines for its use. We hope that this book will not only serve as a practical handbook for expert system builders, but also be of interest to AI and cognitive scientists who are seeking to develop a theory of knowledge acquisition for expert systems.

Author : Jack Dowie,Arthur Elstein
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
Page : 586 pages
File Size : 46,6 Mb
Release : 1988-01-14
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 0521346967

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Professional Judgment by Jack Dowie,Arthur Elstein Pdf

Policy-capturing models, data-based aids, expert systems and decision analysis are the main decision-making techniques introduced here, with attention to their methodological bases and practical evaluation.

Author : Betty M. Miller,Geological Survey (U.S.)
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 40 pages
File Size : 52,8 Mb
Release : 1993
Category : Expert systems (Computer science)
ISBN : ERDC:35925002789656

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Object-oriented Expert Systems and Their Applications to Sedimentary Basin Analysis by Betty M. Miller,Geological Survey (U.S.) Pdf

Applying expert systems and knowledge acquisition techniques to classifying world sedimentary basins and to diagnosing geologic conditions favorable to the occurrence of energy resources in sedimentary basin analyses.

Author : William M. Goldstein,Robin M. Hogarth
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
Page : 772 pages
File Size : 44,7 Mb
Release : 1997-06-13
Category : Education
ISBN : 0521483344

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Research on Judgment and Decision Making by William M. Goldstein,Robin M. Hogarth Pdf

This book offers an overview of recent research on the psychology of judgment and decision making, the field that investigates the processes by which people draw conclusions, reach evaluations, and make choices. An introductory, historically oriented chapter provides a way of viewing the overall structure of the field, its recent trends, and its possible directions. Subsequent sections present significant recent papers by prominent researchers, organized to reveal the currents, connections, and controversies that animate the field. Current trends in the field are illustrated with papers from ongoing streams of research. The papers on "connections" explore memory, explanation and argument, affect, attitudes, and motivation. Finally, a section on "controversies" presents problem representation, domain knowledge, content specificity, rule-governed versus rule-described behavior, and proposals for radical departures and new beginnings in the field. Students and researchers in psychology who have an interest in cognitive processes will find this text to be rewarding reading.