Experts In Uncertainty

Author : Roger M. Cooke
Publisher : Oxford University Press
Page : 334 pages
File Size : 40,9 Mb
Release : 1991-10-24
Category : Science
ISBN : 9780195362374

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Experts in Uncertainty by Roger M. Cooke Pdf

This book is an extensive survey and critical examination of the literature on the use of expert opinion in scientific inquiry and policy making. The elicitation, representation, and use of expert opinion is increasingly important for two reasons: advancing technology leads to more and more complex decision problems, and technologists are turning in greater numbers to "expert systems" and other similar artifacts of artificial intelligence. Cooke here considers how expert opinion is being used today, how an expert's uncertainty is or should be represented, how people do or should reason with uncertainty, how the quality and usefulness of expert opinion can be assessed, and how the views of several experts might be combined. He argues for the importance of developing practical models with a transparent mathematic foundation for the use of expert opinion in science, and presents three tested models, termed "classical," "Bayesian," and "psychological scaling." Detailed case studies illustrate how they can be applied to a diversity of real problems in engineering and planning.

Author : Roger Cooke
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 0 pages
File Size : 53,9 Mb
Release : 2023
Category : Decision making
ISBN : 019773037X

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Experts in Uncertainty by Roger Cooke Pdf

This volume contains an extensive survey and critical examination of current views on the use of expert opinion in scientific inquiry and policy-making.

Author : Anthony O'Hagan,Caitlin E. Buck,Alireza Daneshkhah,J. Richard Eiser,Paul H. Garthwaite,David J. Jenkinson,Jeremy E. Oakley,Tim Rakow
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
Page : 338 pages
File Size : 53,5 Mb
Release : 2006-08-30
Category : Mathematics
ISBN : 9780470033302

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Uncertain Judgements by Anthony O'Hagan,Caitlin E. Buck,Alireza Daneshkhah,J. Richard Eiser,Paul H. Garthwaite,David J. Jenkinson,Jeremy E. Oakley,Tim Rakow Pdf

Elicitation is the process of extracting expert knowledge about some unknown quantity or quantities, and formulating that information as a probability distribution. Elicitation is important in situations, such as modelling the safety of nuclear installations or assessing the risk of terrorist attacks, where expert knowledge is essentially the only source of good information. It also plays a major role in other contexts by augmenting scarce observational data, through the use of Bayesian statistical methods. However, elicitation is not a simple task, and practitioners need to be aware of a wide range of research findings in order to elicit expert judgements accurately and reliably. Uncertain Judgements introduces the area, before guiding the reader through the study of appropriate elicitation methods, illustrated by a variety of multi-disciplinary examples. This is achieved by: Presenting a methodological framework for the elicitation of expert knowledge incorporating findings from both statistical and psychological research. Detailing techniques for the elicitation of a wide range of standard distributions, appropriate to the most common types of quantities. Providing a comprehensive review of the available literature and pointing to the best practice methods and future research needs. Using examples from many disciplines, including statistics, psychology, engineering and health sciences. Including an extensive glossary of statistical and psychological terms. An ideal source and guide for statisticians and psychologists with interests in expert judgement or practical applications of Bayesian analysis, Uncertain Judgements will also benefit decision-makers, risk analysts, engineers and researchers in the medical and social sciences.

Author : Bilal M. Ayyub
Publisher : CRC Press
Page : 328 pages
File Size : 42,7 Mb
Release : 2001-06-27
Category : Technology & Engineering
ISBN : 0849310873

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Elicitation of Expert Opinions for Uncertainty and Risks by Bilal M. Ayyub Pdf

Experts, despite their importance and value, can be double-edged swords. They can make valuable contributions from their deep base of knowledge, but those contributions may also contain their own biases and pet theories. Therefore, selecting experts, eliciting their opinions, and aggregating their opinions must be performed and handled carefully, with full recognition of the uncertainties inherent in those opinions. Elicitation of Expert Opinions for Uncertainty and Risks illuminates those uncertainties and builds a foundation of philosophy, background, methods, and guidelines that helps its readers effectively execute the elicitation process. Based on the first-hand experiences of the author, the book is filled with illustrations, examples, case studies, and applications that demonstrate not only the methods and successes of expert opinion elicitation, but also its pitfalls and failures. Studies show that in the future, analysts, engineers, and scientists will need to solve ever more complex problems and reach decisions with limited resources. This will lead to an increased reliance on the proper treatment of uncertainty and on the use of expert opinions. Elicitation of Expert Opinions for Uncertainty and Risks will help prepare you to better understand knowledge and ignorance, to successfully elicit expert opinions, to select appropriate expressions of those opinions, and to use various methods to model and aggregate opinions.

Author : Jerzy W. Grzymala-Busse
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
Page : 242 pages
File Size : 54,5 Mb
Release : 2012-12-06
Category : Computers
ISBN : 9781461539827

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Managing Uncertainty in Expert Systems by Jerzy W. Grzymala-Busse Pdf

3. Textbook for a course in expert systems,if an emphasis is placed on Chapters 1 to 3 and on a selection of material from Chapters 4 to 7. There is also the option of using an additional commercially available sheU for a programming project. In assigning a programming project, the instructor may use any part of a great variety of books covering many subjects, such as car repair. Instructions for mostofthe "weekend mechanic" books are close stylisticaUy to expert system rules. Contents Chapter 1 gives an introduction to the subject matter; it briefly presents basic concepts, history, and some perspectives ofexpert systems. Then itpresents the architecture of an expert system and explains the stages of building an expert system. The concept of uncertainty in expert systems and the necessity of deal ing with the phenomenon are then presented. The chapter ends with the descrip tion of taxonomy ofexpert systems. Chapter 2 focuses on knowledge representation. Four basic ways to repre sent knowledge in expert systems are presented: first-order logic, production sys tems, semantic nets, and frames. Chapter 3 contains material about knowledge acquisition. Among machine learning techniques, a methodofrule learning from examples is explained in de tail. Then problems ofrule-base verification are discussed. In particular, both consistency and completeness oftherule base are presented.

Author : Bilal M. Ayyub
Publisher : CRC Press
Page : 325 pages
File Size : 47,7 Mb
Release : 2001-06-27
Category : Technology & Engineering
ISBN : 9781420040906

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Elicitation of Expert Opinions for Uncertainty and Risks by Bilal M. Ayyub Pdf

Experts, despite their importance and value, can be double-edged swords. They can make valuable contributions from their deep base of knowledge, but those contributions may also contain their own biases and pet theories. Therefore, selecting experts, eliciting their opinions, and aggregating their opinions must be performed and handled carefully, w

Author : Bilal M. Ayyub
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 128 pages
File Size : 52,7 Mb
Release : 2001
Category : Decision making
ISBN : OCLC:301063236

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Elicitation of Expert Opinions for Uncertainty and Risks by Bilal M. Ayyub Pdf

Author : David A. Cleaves
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 24 pages
File Size : 45,9 Mb
Release : 1994
Category : Forest health
ISBN : MINN:31951D03000070A

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Assessing Uncertainty in Expert Judgments about Natural Resources by David A. Cleaves Pdf

Author : Millett Granger Morgan,Max Henrion,Mitchell Small
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
Page : 354 pages
File Size : 52,7 Mb
Release : 1990
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 0521427444

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Uncertainty by Millett Granger Morgan,Max Henrion,Mitchell Small Pdf

A risk analysis textbook which is intended as a basic text for students as well as a reference for practitioners and researchers. It provides a basis for policy analysis and draws upon a variety of case studies.

Author : Jonathan Rougier,Lisa J. Hill,Robert Stephen John Sparks
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
Page : 587 pages
File Size : 47,9 Mb
Release : 2013-02-21
Category : Nature
ISBN : 9781107006195

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Risk and Uncertainty Assessment for Natural Hazards by Jonathan Rougier,Lisa J. Hill,Robert Stephen John Sparks Pdf

A state-of-the-art overview of natural hazard risk assessment, for researchers and professionals in natural-hazard science, risk management and environmental science.

Author : Majdoleen Abu Qamar ,Nasruddin Hassan
Publisher : Infinite Study
Page : 16 pages
File Size : 51,9 Mb
Release : 2024-06-29
Category : Mathematics
ISBN : 8210379456XXX

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Generalized Q-Neutrosophic Soft Expert Set for Decision under Uncertainty by Majdoleen Abu Qamar ,Nasruddin Hassan Pdf

Neutrosophic triplet structure yields a symmetric property of truth membership on the left, indeterminacy membership in the centre and false membership on the right, as do points of object, centre and image of reflection. As an extension of a neutrosophic set, the Q-neutrosophic set was introduced to handle two-dimensional uncertain and inconsistent situations. We extend the soft expert set to generalized Q-neutrosophic soft expert set by incorporating the idea of soft expert set to the concept of Q-neutrosophic set and attaching the parameter of fuzzy set while defining a Q-neutrosophic soft expert set. This pattern carries the benefits of Q-neutrosophic sets and soft sets, enabling decision makers to recognize the views of specialists with no requirement for extra lumbering tasks, thus making it exceedingly reasonable for use in decision-making issues that include imprecise, indeterminate and inconsistent two-dimensional data. Some essential operations namely subset, equal, complement, union, intersection, AND and OR operations and additionally several properties relating to the notion of generalized Q-neutrosophic soft expert set are characterized. Finally, an algorithm on generalized Q-neutrosophic soft expert set is proposed and applied to a real-life example to show the efficiency of this notion in handling such problems.

Author : Anca M. Hanea,Gabriela F. Nane,Tim Bedford,Simon French
Publisher : Springer Nature
Page : 503 pages
File Size : 52,6 Mb
Release : 2021-02-19
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9783030464745

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Expert Judgement in Risk and Decision Analysis by Anca M. Hanea,Gabriela F. Nane,Tim Bedford,Simon French Pdf

This book pulls together many perspectives on the theory, methods and practice of drawing judgments from panels of experts in assessing risks and making decisions in complex circumstances. The book is divided into four parts: Structured Expert Judgment (SEJ) current research fronts; the contributions of Roger Cooke and the Classical Model he developed; process, procedures and education; and applications. After an Introduction by the Editors, the first part presents chapters on expert elicitation of parameters of multinomial models; the advantages of using performance weighting by advancing the “random expert” hypothesis; expert elicitation for specific graphical models; modelling dependencies between experts’ assessments within a Bayesian framework; preventive maintenance optimization in a Bayesian framework; eliciting life time distributions to parametrize a Dirichlet process; and on an adversarial risk analysis approach for structured expert judgment studies. The second part includes Roger Cooke’s oration from 1995 on taking up his chair at Delft University of Technology; one of the editors reflections on the early decade of the Classical Model development and use; a current overview of the theory of the Classical Model, providing a deep and comprehensive perspective on its foundations and its application; and an interview with Roger Cooke. The third part starts with an interview with Professor Dame Anne Glover, who served as the Chief Scientific Advisor to the President of the European Commission. It then presents chapters on the characteristics of good elicitations by reviewing those advocated and applied; the design and development of a training course for SEJ; and on specific experiences with SEJ protocols with the intention of presenting the challenges and insights collected during these journeys. Finally, the fourth (and largest) part begins with some reflections from Willy Aspinall on his many experiences in applying the Classical Model in several application domains; it continues with related reflections on imperfect elicitations; and then it presents chapters with applications on medicines policy and management, supply chain cyber risk management, geo-political risks, terrorism and the risks facing businesses looking to internationalise.

Author : Sander van der Linden,Ragnar E. Löfstedt
Publisher : Routledge
Page : 80 pages
File Size : 47,9 Mb
Release : 2019-06-10
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781000022926

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Risk and Uncertainty in a Post-Truth Society by Sander van der Linden,Ragnar E. Löfstedt Pdf

This edited volume looks at whether it is possible to be more transparent about uncertainty in scientific evidence without undermining public understanding and trust. With contributions from leading experts in the field, this book explores the communication of risk and decision-making in an increasingly post-truth world. Drawing on case studies from climate change to genetic testing, the authors argue for better quality evidence synthesis to cut through the noise and highlight the need for more structured public dialogue. For uncertainty in scientific evidence to be communicated effectively, they conclude that trustworthiness is vital: the data and methods underlying statistics must be transparent, valid, and sound, and the numbers need to demonstrate practical utility and add social value to people’s lives. Presenting a conceptual framework to help navigate the reader through the key social and scientific challenges of a post-truth era, this book will be of great relevance to students, scholars, and policy makers with an interest in risk analysis and communication.

Author : Anonim
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 96 pages
File Size : 48,6 Mb
Release : 2009
Category : Atmospheric ozone
ISBN : PURD:32754081344446

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Best Practice Approaches for Characterizing, Communicating and Incorporating Scientific Uncertainty in Climate Decision Making : Synthesis and Assessment Product 5.2 Report by Anonim Pdf

Author : Plamen Angelov,Sotir Sotirov
Publisher : Springer
Page : 414 pages
File Size : 51,6 Mb
Release : 2015-12-22
Category : Technology & Engineering
ISBN : 9783319263021

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Imprecision and Uncertainty in Information Representation and Processing by Plamen Angelov,Sotir Sotirov Pdf

The book offers a comprehensive and timely overview of advanced mathematical tools for both uncertainty analysis and modeling of parallel processes, with a special emphasis on intuitionistic fuzzy sets and generalized nets. The different chapters, written by active researchers in their respective areas, are structured to provide a coherent picture of this interdisciplinary yet still evolving field of science. They describe key tools and give practical insights into and research perspectives on the use of Atanassov's intuitionistic fuzzy sets and logic, and generalized nets for describing and dealing with uncertainty in different areas of science, technology and business, in a single, to date unique book. Here, readers find theoretical chapters, dealing with intuitionistic fuzzy operators, membership functions and algorithms, among other topics, as well as application-oriented chapters, reporting on the implementation of methods and relevant case studies in management science, the IT industry, medicine and/or education. With this book, the editors wish to pay homage to Professor Krassimir Todorov Atanassov for his pioneering work on both generalized nets and intuitionistic fuzzy set.