Financial Analysts Forecasts And Stock Recommendations
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Financial Analysts' Forecasts and Stock Recommendations by Sundaresh Ramnath,Steve Rock,Philip B. Shane Pdf
Financial Analysts' Forecasts and Stock Recommendations reviews research related to the role of financial analysts in the allocation of resources in capital markets. The authors provide an organized look at the literature, with particular attention to important questions that remain open for further research. They focus research related to analysts' decision processes and the usefulness of their forecasts and stock recommendations. Some of the major surveys were published in the early 1990's and since then no less than 250 papers related to financial analysts have appeared in the nine major research journals that we used to launch our review of the literature. The research has evolved from descriptions of the statistical properties of analysts' forecasts to investigations of the incentives and decision processes that give rise to those properties. However, in spite of this broader focus, much of analysts' decision processes and the market's mechanism of drawing a useful consensus from the combination of individual analysts' decisions remain hidden in a black box. What do we know about the relevant valuation metrics and the mechanism by which analysts and investors translate forecasts into present equity values? What do we know about the heuristics relied upon by analysts and the market and the appropriateness of their use? Financial Analysts' Forecasts and Stock Recommendations examines these and other questions and concludes by highlighting area for future research.
A Review of Research Related to Financial Analysts' Forecasts and Stock Recommendations by Sundaresh Ramnath Pdf
This paper reviews research regarding the role of financial analysts in capital markets. The paper builds on the perspectives provided by Schipper (1991) and Brown (1993). We categorize papers published mainly since 1992 and selectively discuss aspects of these papers that address or suggest key research topics of ongoing interest in seven broad areas: analysts' decision processes, the determinants of analyst expertise and distributions of individual analysts' forecasts, the informativeness of analysts' research outputs, analyst and market efficiency with respect to information, effects of analysts' economic incentives on their research outputs, effects of the institutional and regulatory environment (including cross-country comparisons), and the limitations of databases and various research paradigms.
Financial Analysts and Information Processing on Financial Markets by Jan-Philipp Matthewes Pdf
Financial analysts play an ambivalent role on financial markets: On the one hand investors and the media frequently follow their advice, on the other hand they are regularly discredited when their forecasts or recommendations prove to be erroneous. This cumulative thesis explores the informational content of financial analysts’ forecasts for investors by addressing three specific topics: Consensus size as a rudimentary investment signal, the association of analysts’ target prices with business sentiment, and the consistency of analysts’ different investment signals in the context of the 2008 financial crisis. Overall, the thesis provides additional evidence that investors can profit from analysts’ forecasts and recommendations. However, it is also shown that investors need to be very selective about which signal to rely on and in which context to use these because analysts’ investment signals can also be heavily biased and erroneous. About the author: Jan-Philipp Matthewes studied ‘Economics’ at the University of Cologne, Germany, and holds a Dean’s Award from the Faculty of Economics and Social Sciences. His research focus on financial analysts evolved while working in equity research at a leading German bank. The PhD-thesis was supervised by Prof. Dr. Martin Wallmeier, Finance and Accounting, at the University of Fribourg, Switzerland. Since 2013 Jan-Philipp Matthewes is the managing director of the boutique private equity firm ‘Matthewes Capital Invest GmbH’.
Stock Analysis in the Twenty-First Century and Beyond by Thomas E. Berghage Pdf
For years, financial analysts have struggled with the fact that practically all the financial measures used to analyze corporate performance lack predictive power when it comes to forecasting the market performance of the company's stock. Numerous academic studies have documented and reported this lack of predictability. Correlation coefficients close to zero have been reported for the relationship between stock market performance and such critical financial measures as earnings growth, sales growth, price/earnings ratio, return on equity, intrinsic value (models based on discounted cash flow or dividends), and many more. It is this disconnect between traditional financial measures and the performance of stocks in the marketplace that has led to the now-famous efficient market hypothesis, the cornerstone of modern portfolio theory. To accept the idea that the future performance of stocks is unpredictable is to say that nothing a company does will affect the future performance of its stock in the market, and that is absurd. It would be more accurate to say that everything a company does will affect the future performance of its stock in the market. The problem with this statement is that it makes the forecasting of future stock performance so complex that it removes it from the realm of human solution.
Author : Bruce I. Jacobs,Kenneth N. Levy Publisher : McGraw Hill Professional Page : 428 pages File Size : 44,9 Mb Release : 2000 Category : Business & Economics ISBN : 0071371338
EQUITY MANAGEMENT QUANTITIVE ANALYSIS by Bruce I. Jacobs,Kenneth N. Levy Pdf
Two pioneers and innovators in the money management field present their choice of groundbreaking, peer-reviewed articles on subjects including portfolio engineering and long-short investment strategy. More than just a collection of classic review pieces, however, Equity Management provides new material to introduce, interpret, and integrate the pieces, with an introduction that provides an authoritative overview of the chapters. Important and innovative, it is destined to become the "Graham and Dodd" of quantitative equity investing. About the Authors: Bruce I. Jacobs and Kenneth N. Levy are Principals of Jacobs Levy Equity Management. Based in Florham Park, New Jersey, Jacobs Levy Equity Management is widely recognized as a leading provider of quantitative equity strategies for institutional clients. Jacobs Levy currently manages over $15 billion in various strategies for a prestigious global roster of 50 corporate pension plans, public retirement systems, multi-employer funds, endowments, and foundations, including over 25 of Pensions & Investments' "Top 200 Pension Funds/Sponsors." Bruce I. Jacobs holds a PhD in finance from the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania. He is the author of Capital Ideas and Market Realities: Option Replication, Investor Behavior, and Stock Market Crashes and co-editor, with Ken Levy, of Market Neutral Strategies. He serves on the advisory board of the Journal of Portfolio Management. Kenneth N. Levy holds an MBA and an MA in applied economics from the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania. He is co-editor, with Bruce Jacobs, of Market Neutral Strategies. A Chartered Financial Analyst, he has served on the CFA Institute's candidate curriculum committee and on the advisory board of POSIT.
Company Valuation and Information in Analyst Forecasts by Daniel Kreutzmann Pdf
This thesis focuses on the three primitive value drivers of each company valuation model that is based on fundamental analysis: the discount rate, the expected future payoffs during the explicit forecasting period, and the terminal value at the end of the explicit forecasting period. While the first factor is analyzed theoretically by incorporating the government into the classical valuation framework, this thesis studies the other two factors by investigating forecasts made by professional investors, i.e. financial analysts. In the first part we show that the government's and the shareholders discount rate usually differ and analyze how the government's and shareholders different objectives lead to conflicts in the context of capital budgeting. The empirical part of this thesis shows that macroeconomic information is frequently used by financial analysts when updating their earnings expecations and that target price forecastsmade by financial analysts can be used to predict abnormal returns.
The Change in Financial Analysts' Forecast Attributes for Value and Growth Stocks by Pieter Johannes De Jong Pdf
This research will concentrate on the changes in earnings forecasts, forecast accuracy and forecast dispersion for growth and value stocks after Reg FD. Each topic is presented in a separate essay. The first essay tests if growth and value stock returns respond more to forecasted earnings changes than they do to changes in earnings and whether these stock returns respond in a different fashion before and after Reg FD. This phenomenon is stronger for growth stock portfolio strategies than it is for value stock portfolios. After Reg FD, the overall impact of earnings expectations on stock returns is smaller, especially for growth stock returns. The second essay examines financial analysts' earnings forecast accuracy in value and growth stocks before and after the introduction of Reg FD. Accuracy for both stock groups (value and growth stocks) has improved after the introduction of Reg FD. The results in this essay provide additional evidence indicating that analysts did not just misinterpret available news but consciously tried to maintain relationships with managers. However, Reg FD efficiently limited these relationships between managers of growth firms and analysts so that the monetary advantage from manipulating earnings forecasts before the introduction of Reg FD no longer exists. The third essay evaluates the hypothesis stating that forecast dispersion, on both growth and value stock returns, has increased after the introduction Reg FD. However, the increased dispersion found at the second quarter of 2001 drastically dissipates at the second quarter of 2002, although value stock forecast dispersion before earnings announcement and value stock belief jumbling remain higher. The results in this essay suggest that corporate voluntary disclosure created a greater variety of opinions and, therefore, more uncertainty about value stocks. Also, value stock returns have a stronger inverse relationship with dispersion because financial analysts have become more uncertain about value firms' performance. The bigger the disagreement about a stock's value, the higher the market price relative to the true value of the stock, and the lower its future return.
Advances in Financial Planning and Forecasting by Cheng-Few Lee Pdf
Advances in Quantitative Analysis of Finance and Accounting (New Series) is an annual publication designed to disseminate developments in the quantitative analysis of finance and accounting. The publication is a forum for statistical and quantitative analyses of issues in finance and accounting as well as applications of quantitative methods to problems in financial management, financial accounting, and business management. The objective is to promote interaction between academic research in finance and accounting and applied research in the financial community and the accounting profession. The papers in this volume cover a wide range of topics including corporate finance and debt management, earnings management, equity market, auditing, option pricing theory, and interest rate theory. In this volume there are eleven chapters, five of them are corporate finance and debt management: 1. Liquidity and Adverse Selection: Evidence from the Five-or-Fewer Rule Change; 2. Changing Business Environment and the Value of Relevance of Accounting Information; 3. Pricing Risky Securities in Hidden Markov-Modulated Poisson Processes; 4. An Empirical Assessment of Alternative Dividend Expectation Models; 5. Quantitative Market Risk Disclosure, Bond Default Risk and The Cost of Debt: Why Value At Risk? There are two of the other six chapters which cover interest rate theory: 1. Positive Interest Rates and Yields: Additional Serious Considerations; 2. Collapse of Dimensionality in the Interest Rate Term Structure. The remaining four chapters cover financial analysts earnings forecasts, equity market, auditing, and option pricing theory. These four papers are: 1. Investors’ Apparent Under-weighting of Financial Analysts’ Earnings Forecasts: The Role of Share Price Scaling and Omitted Risk Factors; 2. Predicting Stock Price by Applying the Residual Income Model and Bayesian Statistics; 3. Intertemporal Associations Between Non-Audit Services and Auditors’ Tendency to Allow Discretionary Accruals; 4. Put Option Portfolio Insurance vs. Asset Allocation.
Handbook of Security Analyst Forecasting and Asset Allocation by John Guerard,Mustafa N. Gültekin Pdf
Part of a series on contemporary studies in economic and financial analysis, this volume focuses on security analyst forecasting and asset allocation. Topics include market response to earning forecasts; and the effectiveness of security analysts' forecasts; among others.
Author : John B. Guerard, Jr. Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media Page : 245 pages File Size : 42,9 Mb Release : 2013-01-04 Category : Business & Economics ISBN : 9781461452393
Introduction to Financial Forecasting in Investment Analysis by John B. Guerard, Jr. Pdf
Forecasting—the art and science of predicting future outcomes—has become a crucial skill in business and economic analysis. This volume introduces the reader to the tools, methods, and techniques of forecasting, specifically as they apply to financial and investing decisions. With an emphasis on "earnings per share" (eps), the author presents a data-oriented text on financial forecasting, understanding financial data, assessing firm financial strategies (such as share buybacks and R&D spending), creating efficient portfolios, and hedging stock portfolios with financial futures. The opening chapters explain how to understand economic fluctuations and how the stock market leads the general economic trend; introduce the concept of portfolio construction and how movements in the economy influence stock price movements; and introduce the reader to the forecasting process, including exponential smoothing and time series model estimations. Subsequent chapters examine the composite index of leading economic indicators (LEI); review financial statement analysis and mean-variance efficient portfolios; and assess the effectiveness of analysts’ earnings forecasts. Using data from such firms as Intel, General Electric, and Hitachi, Guerard demonstrates how forecasting tools can be applied to understand the business cycle, evaluate market risk, and demonstrate the impact of global stock selection modeling and portfolio construction.
Best Practices for Equity Research Analysts: Essentials for Buy-Side and Sell-Side Analysts by James Valentine Pdf
A real-world guide to becoming a top-performing equity analyst Praise for Best Practices for Equity Research Analysts: "Jim Valentine has taken his decades of experience as a highly successful security analyst and written an effective and comprehensive guide to doing the job right. I only wish I had this book by my side throughout my career." -- Byron R. Wien, Vice Chairman, Blackstone Advisory Partners LP "Given the fast pace and high-pressure nature of the markets, analysts don't have the luxury to make mistakes. James J. Valentine's Best Practices for Equity Research Analysts should be required reading for all new and experienced analysts, particularly those who were not lucky enough to be brought up in the business under a mentor. Valentine can be that mentor." -- Jami Rubin, Managing Director, Global Investment Research, Goldman Sachs "Jim's book is an excellent window into the world of securities research. Very few works cover the complete life cycle of an analyst and the necessary balance between theory and practice. This is one of them." -- Juan-Luis Perez, Global Director of Research, Morgan Stanley "Valentine's book doesn’t rehash the basics of finance but covers all the nonacademic topics in terms of how the analysts should manage their time, resources, data, and contacts in order to come up with the best stock picks. This book is required reading for beginning analysts and a must-read for all analysts who want to develop an edge." -- Carl Schweser, Founder of Schweser’s Study Program for the CFA Exam "Best Practices for Equity Research Analysts is by far the best written and most comprehensive book that I have read on how to become a top-notch analyst. I shouldn't be surprised; it was written by one of the best analysts that Wall Street has ever seen. Every securities firm should require their analysts to read this book." -- Eli Salzmann, Portfolio Manager Most equity research analysts learn their trade on the job by apprenticing under a senior analyst. However, equity analysts who work for senior producers often have little time or incentive to train new hires, and those who do have the time may not have research skills worth emulating. Now, Best Practices for Equity Research Analysts offers promising equity research analysts a practical curriculum for mastering their profession. James J. Valentine, a former Morgan Stanley analyst, explains everything today's competitive analyst needs to know, providing practical training materials for buyand sell-side research analysis in the United States and globally. Conveniently organized for use as a learning tool and everyday reference on the job, Best Practices for Equity Research Analysts covers the five primary areas of the equity research analyst's role: Identifying and monitoring critical factors Creating and updating financial forecasts Deriving price targets or a range of targets Making stock recommendations Communicating stock ideas Expanding upon material covered in undergraduate courses but written specifically to help you perform in the real world, this authoritative book gives you access to the wisdom and expertise of leading professionals in the field. You'll learn best practices for setting up an information hub, influencing others, identifying the critical factors and information sources for better forecasting, creating a better set of financial forecast scenarios, improving valuation and stock-picking techniques, communicating your message effectively, making ethical decisions, and more. Without Best Practices for Equity Research Analysts, you're just treading water in the sink-or-swim world of the equity analyst.
