Four Decades Of Terms Of Trade Booms

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Four Decades of Terms-of-Trade Booms

Gustavo Adler,Mr.Nicolas E. Magud
Four Decades of Terms of Trade Booms Book PDF

Author : Gustavo Adler,Mr.Nicolas E. Magud
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 32 pages
File Size : 45,9 Mb
Release : 2013-05-09
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781484356241

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Four Decades of Terms-of-Trade Booms by Gustavo Adler,Mr.Nicolas E. Magud Pdf

We study the history of terms-of-trade booms (during 1970–2012), with a focus on Latin America, through the prisms of a simple metric that quantifies the associated income windfall. We also document saving patterns during these episodes and propose a measure of how much of the income windfall was saved. We find that Latin America‘s terms-of-trade shocks of the last decade have not differed much in magnitude from those observed during the 1970s, but that the associated windfall have been substantially larger. While aggregate saving increased more than in past episodes, the share of the windfall saved (the marginal saving rate) seems to be lower, suggesting that greater aggregate saving reflects mainly the sheer size of the windfall rather than a greater 'effort' to save it. Finally, we find evidence that, while savings during the boom help to increase post-boom income, the composition of such savings matters. Specifically, in past episodes, savings allocated to foreign asset accumulation appear to have contributed more to post-boom income than those devoted to domestic investment.

Colombia

International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
Colombia Book PDF

Author : International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 73 pages
File Size : 55,8 Mb
Release : 2014-05-28
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781498395144

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Colombia by International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept. Pdf

KEY ISSUES Context. Colombia’s economic performance has been robust, underpinned by a very strong policy framework. Last year, real GDP grew by 4.3 percent, with low inflation. The country has a strong external position; the financial system is sound; and fiscal policy remains guided by a structural fiscal balance rule. The authorities intend to undertake an ambitious infrastructure program to be executed through public-private partnerships. Outlook and risks. Real GDP growth is projected to converge to potential (about 41⁄2 percent) in 2014, with inflation remaining within the 2–4 percent target range. The medium-term outlook is favorable, but risks are tilted to the downside. Colombia’s important and growing ties with the global economy expose the economy to external risks. The most important sources of risk are a decline in oil prices, a deterioration in global financial conditions, and volatility from the normalization of monetary policy in the U.S. Near-term policy mix. The current policy mix is broadly adequate. As the ongoing economic recovery takes hold, monetary and fiscal policies are expected to shift to a more neutral stance. Colombia continues to rely on a flexible exchange rate to absorb external shocks. The authorities are also taking advantage of abundant foreign inflows, primarily foreign direct investment, to strengthen their international reserve buffer. Medium-term challenges. Colombia’s key challenge is to sustain strong and inclusive growth with macroeconomic stability. To this purpose, it will be important to: (i) adhere to the fiscal consolidation plan, supporting it with revenue mobilization; (ii) address the infrastructure gap, without increasing fiscal risks; (iii) enhance the social security system by increasing coverage and improving equity, and containing health care costs; (iv) address remaining weaknesses in financial sector supervision; and (v) foster financial inclusion.

Terms-of-Trade Cycles and External Adjustment

Gustavo Adler,Mr.Nicolas E Magud,Alejandro M. Werner
Terms of Trade Cycles and External Adjustment Book PDF

Author : Gustavo Adler,Mr.Nicolas E Magud,Alejandro M. Werner
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 30 pages
File Size : 51,7 Mb
Release : 2017-02-13
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781475578485

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Terms-of-Trade Cycles and External Adjustment by Gustavo Adler,Mr.Nicolas E Magud,Alejandro M. Werner Pdf

We study the process of external adjustment to large terms-of-trade level shifts—identified with a Markov-switching approach—for a large set of countries during the period 1960–2015. We find that adjustment to these shocks is relatively fast. Current accounts experience, on average, a contemporaneous variation of only about 1⁄2 of the magnitude of the price shock—indicating a significant volume offset—and a full adjustment within 3–4 years. Dynamics are largely symmetric for terms-of-trade booms and busts, as well as for advanced and emerging market economies. External adjustment is driven primarily by offsetting shifts in domestic demand, as opposed to variations in output (also reflected in the response of import rather than export volumes), indicating a strong income channel at play. Exchange rate flexibility appears to have played an important buffering role during booms, but less so during busts; while international reserve holdings have been a key tool for smoothing the adjustment process.

Peru

International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
Peru Book PDF

Author : International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 89 pages
File Size : 53,5 Mb
Release : 2014-01-29
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781484394601

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Peru by International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept. Pdf

This 2013 Article IV Consultation highlights that Peru’s economy continues to be a leader in high growth and low inflation in the region, which has been achieved through a prudent macroeconomic policy implementation, a far-reaching structural reform agenda and taking advantage of the benign external environment. After reaching 4.7 percent in 2011, end-period inflation fell to 2.6 percent in 2012, within the 1–3 percent target range. Stimulative monetary and fiscal policies played an instrumental role in supporting the recovery. The outlook remains favorable in the near term despite challenging external conditions.

Latin America

Ms.Dora M. Iakova,Mr.Luis M. Cubeddu,Gustavo Adler,Mr.Sebastian Sosa
Latin America Book PDF

Author : Ms.Dora M. Iakova,Mr.Luis M. Cubeddu,Gustavo Adler,Mr.Sebastian Sosa
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 270 pages
File Size : 47,6 Mb
Release : 2014-12-23
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781498328166

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Latin America by Ms.Dora M. Iakova,Mr.Luis M. Cubeddu,Gustavo Adler,Mr.Sebastian Sosa Pdf

Over the past fifteen years countries in Latin America made tremendous progress in strengthening their economies and improving living standards. Although output fell temporarily during the global financial crisis, most economies staged a rapid recovery. However, economic activity across the region has been cooling off and the region is facing a more challenging period ahead. This book argues that Latin America can rise to the challenge, and policymakers in the region are already implementing reforms in education, energy, and other sectors. More is needed, and more is possible, in Latin America’s quest to continue to improve living standards.

After the Boom–Commodity Prices and Economic Growth in Latin America and the Caribbean

Bertrand Gruss
After the Boom Commodity Prices and Economic Growth in Latin America and the Caribbean Book PDF

Author : Bertrand Gruss
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 43 pages
File Size : 41,9 Mb
Release : 2014-08-15
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781484330777

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After the Boom–Commodity Prices and Economic Growth in Latin America and the Caribbean by Bertrand Gruss Pdf

After skyrocketing over the past decade, commodity prices have remained stable or eased somewhat since mid-2011—and most projections suggest they are not likely to resume the upward trend observed in the last decade. This paper analyzes what this turn in the commodity price cycle may imply for output growth in Latin America and the Caribbean. The analysis suggests that growth in the years ahead for the average commodity exporter in the region could be significantly lower than during the commodity boom, even if commodity prices were to remain stable at their current still-high levels. Slower-than-expected growth in China represents a key downside risk. The results caution against trying to offset the current economic slowdown with demand-side stimulus and underscore the need for ambitious structural reforms to secure strong growth over the medium term.

The Adjustment to Commodity Price Shocks in Chile, Colombia, and Peru

Mr.Francisco Roch
The Adjustment to Commodity Price Shocks in Chile Colombia and Peru Book PDF

Author : Mr.Francisco Roch
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 25 pages
File Size : 47,5 Mb
Release : 2017-09-29
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781484320648

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The Adjustment to Commodity Price Shocks in Chile, Colombia, and Peru by Mr.Francisco Roch Pdf

This paper presents a comparative analysis of the macroeconomic adjustment in Chile, Colombia, and Peru to commodity terms-of-trade shocks. The study is done in two steps: (i) an analysis of the impulse responses of key macroeconomic variables to terms-of-trade shocks and (ii) an event study of the adjustment to the recent decline in commodity prices. The experiences of these countries highlight the importance of flexible exchange rates to help with the adjustment to lower commodity prices, and staying vigilant in addressing depreciation pressures on inflation through tightening monetary policies. On the fiscal front, evidence shows that greater fiscal space, like in Chile and Peru, gives more room for accommodating terms-of-trade shocks.

Trade and Poverty

Jeffrey G. Williamson
Trade and Poverty Book PDF

Author : Jeffrey G. Williamson
Publisher : MIT Press
Page : 315 pages
File Size : 44,9 Mb
Release : 2013-01-11
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9780262518598

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Trade and Poverty by Jeffrey G. Williamson Pdf

How the rise of globalization over the past two centuries helps explain the income gap between rich and poor countries today. Today's wide economic gap between the postindustrial countries of the West and the poorer countries of the third world is not new. Fifty years ago, the world economic order—two hundred years in the making—was already characterized by a vast difference in per capita income between rich and poor countries and by the fact that poor countries exported commodities (agricultural or mineral products) while rich countries exported manufactured products. In Trade and Poverty, leading economic historian Jeffrey G. Williamson traces the great divergence between the third world and the West to this nexus of trade, commodity specialization, and poverty. Analyzing the role of specialization, de-industrialization, and commodity price volatility with econometrics and case studies of India, Ottoman Turkey, and Mexico, Williamson demonstrates why the close correlation between trade and poverty emerged. Globalization and the great divergence were causally related, and thus the rise of globalization over the past two centuries helps account for the income gap between rich and poor countries today.

Regional Economic Outlook, May 2013, Western Hemisphere

International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
Regional Economic Outlook May 2013 Western Hemisphere Book PDF

Author : International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 66 pages
File Size : 41,7 Mb
Release : 2013-05-06
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781484382479

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Regional Economic Outlook, May 2013, Western Hemisphere by International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept. Pdf

Despite some global risks, external conditions for Latin America should remain stimulative. With monetary policy in advanced economies expected to stay accommodative, external financing conditions will remain favorable. Strong demand from emerging Asian economies and the gradual recovery of advanced economies will continue to support commodity prices, benefiting exporters. The main policy challenge for most of the region is to take advantage of current conditions to continue buttressing a foundation for sustained growth. Other issues important to the region include: (i) strengthening balance sheets; (ii) understanding how changes in external conditions could impact public and external debt dynamics; and (iii) making the best use of the windfall from the recent terms-of-trade boom.

World Economic Outlook, October 2015

International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
World Economic Outlook October 2015 Book PDF

Author : International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 228 pages
File Size : 43,7 Mb
Release : 2015-10-06
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781513520735

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World Economic Outlook, October 2015 by International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. Pdf

This issue discusses a number of factors affecting global growth, as well as growth prospects across the world’s main countries and regions. It assesses the ongoing recovery from the global financial crisis in advanced and emerging market economies and evaluates risks, both upside and downside, including those associated with commodity prices, currency fluctuations, and financial market volatility. A special feature examines in detail causes and implications of the recent commodity price downturn; analytical chapters look at the effects of commodity windfalls on potential output and of exchange rate movements on trade.

IMF Research Bulletin, September 2013

International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
IMF Research Bulletin September 2013 Book PDF

Author : International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 16 pages
File Size : 48,6 Mb
Release : 2013-09-16
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781475558531

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IMF Research Bulletin, September 2013 by International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. Pdf

The Research Summaries in the September 2013 IMF Research Bulletin focus on “External Conditions and Debt Sustainability in Latin America” (Gustavo Adler and Sebastian Sosa) and “Monetary Policy Cyclicality in Emerging Markets” (Donal McGettigan, Kenji Moriyama, and Chad Steinberg). In the Q&A, Itai Aigur and Sunil Sharma discuss “Seven Questions on Macroprudential Policy Frameworks.” The Research Bulletin also includes an updated listing of recent IMF Working Papers, Staff Discussion Notes, and Recommended Readings from the IMF Bookstore, as well as information on a forthcoming conference. The IMF Economic Review’s new Impact Factor is also highlighted.

Peru

Alejandro M. Werner,Alejandro Santos
Peru Book PDF

Author : Alejandro M. Werner,Alejandro Santos
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 458 pages
File Size : 40,7 Mb
Release : 2015-09-16
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781513599748

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Peru by Alejandro M. Werner,Alejandro Santos Pdf

Peru stands out among Latin American countries as an example of successful economic reforms over the past decade. This comprehensive look at Peru's economy traces that country's journey from a debt crisis in the 1980s to having buffers in place that allowed it to emerge unscathed from the global financial crisis. The book examines the steps Peru undertook to achieve these results and extracts lessons to be learned. Chapters are written by IMF staff and Peruvian economists.

Has Latin American Inequality Changed Direction?

Luis Bértola,Jeffrey Williamson
Has Latin American Inequality Changed Direction Book PDF

Author : Luis Bértola,Jeffrey Williamson
Publisher : Springer
Page : 419 pages
File Size : 45,9 Mb
Release : 2017-01-25
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9783319446219

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Has Latin American Inequality Changed Direction? by Luis Bértola,Jeffrey Williamson Pdf

This book is open access under a CC BY 4.0 license. This book brings together a range of ideas and theories to arrive at a deeper understanding of inequality in Latin America and its complex realities. To so, it addresses questions such as: What are the origins of inequality in Latin America? How can we create societies that are more equal in terms of income distribution, gender equality and opportunities? How can we remedy the social divide that is making Latin America one of the most unequal regions on earth? What are the roles played by market forces, institutions and ideology in terms of inequality? In this book, a group of global experts gathered by the Institute for the Integration of Latin America and the Caribbean (INTAL), part of the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB), show readers how various types of inequality, such as economical, educational, racial and gender inequality have been practiced in countries like Brazil, Bolivia, Chile, Mexico and many others through the centuries. Presenting new ideas, new evidence, and new methods, the book subsequently analyzes how to move forward with second-generation reforms that lay the foundations for more egalitarian societies. As such, it offers a valuable and insightful guide for development economists, historians and Latin American specialists alike, as well as students, educators, policymakers and all citizens with an interest in development, inequality and the Latin American region.

The China Triangle

Kevin Gallagher
The China Triangle Book PDF

Author : Kevin Gallagher
Publisher : Oxford University Press
Page : 257 pages
File Size : 45,5 Mb
Release : 2016
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9780190246730

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The China Triangle by Kevin Gallagher Pdf

Gallagher traces the development of the China-Latin America trade over time and covers how it has affected the centuries-old (and highly unequal) US-Latin American relationship. He argues that despite these opportunities Latin American nations have little to show for riding the coattails of the 'China Boom' and now face significant challenges in the next decades as China's economy slows down and shifts more toward consumption and services. While the Latin American region saw significant economic growth due to China's rise over the past decades, Latin Americans saved very little of the windfall profits it earned even as the region saw a significant hollowing of its industrial base. What is more, commodity-led growth during the China boom reignited social and environmental conflicts across the region. Scholars and reporters have covered the Chinese expansion into East Asia, Southeast Asia, Australasia, Africa, the US, and Europe.

Private Savings and COVID-19 in Sub-Saharan Africa

Mr. Boileau Loko,Nelie Nembot,Mr. Marcos Poplawski Ribeiro
Private Savings and COVID 19 in Sub Saharan Africa Book PDF

Author : Mr. Boileau Loko,Nelie Nembot,Mr. Marcos Poplawski Ribeiro
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 47 pages
File Size : 55,8 Mb
Release : 2022-09-09
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9798400219306

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Private Savings and COVID-19 in Sub-Saharan Africa by Mr. Boileau Loko,Nelie Nembot,Mr. Marcos Poplawski Ribeiro Pdf

The paper reexamines the main private savings determinants in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), followed by an analysis of the COVID-19 pandemic impact on private savings in SSA and other country groupings. Using an unbalanced panel data from 1983−2021 for 31 SSA economies, the paper finds that real per capita economic growth remains a key historical determinant of private savings in the region. In contrast with other regions, private saving rates have not increased during COVID-19 in SSA. Instead, COVID-19 deaths in our estimations are significantly associated with a decline in private savings in SSA. Robustness checks and a descriptive analysis of household surveys during the pandemic corroborate those results.