From Known Unknowns To Black Swans

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From Known Unknowns to Black Swans

Carlos A. Vegh,Guillermo Vuletin,Daniel Riera-Crichton
From Known Unknowns to Black Swans Book PDF

Author : Carlos A. Vegh,Guillermo Vuletin,Daniel Riera-Crichton
Publisher : World Bank Publications
Page : 91 pages
File Size : 49,7 Mb
Release : 2018-10-05
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781464813733

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From Known Unknowns to Black Swans by Carlos A. Vegh,Guillermo Vuletin,Daniel Riera-Crichton Pdf

"After a growth recovery, with an expansion of 1.1 percent in 2017, the region has encountered some bumps in the road. The Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) region is expected to grow at a modest rate of 0.6 percent in 2018 and 1.6 percent in 2019. This slowdown in the region's recovery is mainly explained by the crisis that started in Argentina in April. the growth slowdown in Brazil. and the continued deterioration of Venezuela. Furthermore, net capital inflows to the region have fallen dramatically since early 2018, bringing once again to the fore the risks faced by LAC. In addition, natural disasters such as earthquakes and hurricanes have brought devastation to the region with disturbing frequency. The core of the report analyzes the foundations of risk. develops a theoretical framework to price risk instruments, and reviews how LAC has managed risk in practice."

Risk, Surprises and Black Swans

Terje Aven
Risk Surprises and Black Swans Book PDF

Author : Terje Aven
Publisher : Routledge
Page : 277 pages
File Size : 41,5 Mb
Release : 2014-08-13
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781317626329

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Risk, Surprises and Black Swans by Terje Aven Pdf

Risk, Surprises and Black Swans provides an in depth analysis of the risk concept with a focus on the critical link to knowledge; and the lack of knowledge, that risk and probability judgements are based on. Based on technical scientific research, this book presents a new perspective to help you understand how to assess and manage surprising, extreme events, known as ‘Black Swans’. This approach looks beyond the traditional probability-based principles to offer a broader insight into the important aspects of uncertain events and in doing so explores the ways to manage them. This book recognises the fundamental issues surrounding risk assessment and risk management to help you to understand and prepare for black swan events. Complete with international examples to illustrate ideas and concepts Integrates risk management and resilience based thinking Suitable for a variety of applications including engineering, finance and security.

From Conflict Resolution to Peacebuilding

Charles Hauss
From Conflict Resolution to Peacebuilding Book PDF

Author : Charles Hauss
Publisher : Rowman & Littlefield
Page : 367 pages
File Size : 42,6 Mb
Release : 2019-11-05
Category : Language Arts & Disciplines
ISBN : 9781538116319

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From Conflict Resolution to Peacebuilding by Charles Hauss Pdf

From Conflict Resolution to Peacebuilding is designed to introduce students to the key concepts of conflict resolution from a real world perspective. Covering both micro and macro sites of conflict, it offers ways to resolve conflicts at all levels from the interpersonal to the international. Starting with the notion that conflict is a fact of life but peacebuilding is not, this text analyzes protracted conflicts and “wicked problems” and also tackles the harder task of how to resolve conflict and build peace. Hauss’ approach to peace and conflict studies is deeply personal and richly informed. Based on a strong research base and decades of experience in the field, the book offers new paradigms for considering the intractable conflicts in our world. Each chapter provides real world examples, stories, and cases that illustrating practical work at both the grass roots and elite levels. In a world where conflict seems to be on the rise at home and abroad, this text provides students with the tools to deal with conflict constructively in their daily lives, as citizens, and as future professionals in the growing field of conflict resolution. Features: Full suite of textboxes for study and application Key terms and references for further reading Conflict labs to help students apply concepts to real world situations “Out on a Limb” boxes ask readers to consider bold new ideas and paradigm shifts for analyzing conflict and building peace A dynamic range of open access instructor and student resources can be found at the author’s website: www.chiphauss.info, including: Videos of interviews Curated web links Updates on breaking news Author’s weekly blog Reviews of new books, documentaries, and other publications A discussion forum in which students and faculty members can interact with each other and with the author on issues of their choosing Regular video “office hours” with the author

The Wiley Handbook of Learning Technology

Nick Rushby,Dan Surry
The Wiley Handbook of Learning Technology Book PDF

Author : Nick Rushby,Dan Surry
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
Page : 611 pages
File Size : 44,7 Mb
Release : 2016-04-25
Category : Education
ISBN : 9781118736432

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The Wiley Handbook of Learning Technology by Nick Rushby,Dan Surry Pdf

The Wiley Handbook of Learning Technology is an authoritative and up-to-date survey of the fast-growing field of learning technology, from its foundational theories and practices to its challenges, trends, and future developments. Offers an examination of learning technology that is equal parts theoretical and practical, covering both the technology of learning and the use of technology in learning Individual chapters tackle timely and controversial subjects, such as gaming and simulation, security, lifelong learning, distance education, learning across educational settings, and the research agenda Designed to serve as a point of entry for learning technology novices, a comprehensive reference for scholars and researchers, and a practical guide for education and training practitioners Includes 29 original and comprehensively referenced essays written by leading experts in instructional and educational technology from around the world

Introduction to AI Safety, Ethics and Society

Dan Hendrycks
Introduction to AI Safety Ethics and Society Book PDF

Author : Dan Hendrycks
Publisher : Dan Hendrycks
Page : 441 pages
File Size : 43,5 Mb
Release : 2024-06-30
Category : Computers
ISBN : 8210379456XXX

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Introduction to AI Safety, Ethics and Society by Dan Hendrycks Pdf

The past decade has seen swift progress in AI research. Today’s state of the art systems dramatically outperform humans in narrow areas such as understanding how proteins fold or playing chess and Go. They are closing in on expert performance in other areas: for example, they achieve marks that outperform the average doctor and lawyer in professional exams and perform similarly to the average software engineer on some coding challenges. Advances in AI could transform society for the better, for example by accelerating scientific innovation. However, the rapid development of AI systems' capabilities has drawn increased attention to the risks that advanced AI systems could pose to society in the near future, whether via accidents, misuse by bad actors, or loss of control. In this book, Dan Hendrycks, Director of the Center for AI Safety, provides a comprehensive introduction to how current AI systems work, why we might be concerned about potential catastrophic risks from AI, and how society can manage and mitigate these risks.

Future Forests

Steven G. McNulty
Future Forests Book PDF

Author : Steven G. McNulty
Publisher : Elsevier
Page : 313 pages
File Size : 44,9 Mb
Release : 2023-10-27
Category : Science
ISBN : 9780323904315

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Future Forests by Steven G. McNulty Pdf

Future Forests: Adaptation to Climate Change provides background on forests as natural and social systems, the current distribution and dynamics based on major biomes that set the stage for their role of forests in global systems, the nature of climate change organized by biomes, and detailed descriptions of mitigation and adaptation strategies. This book forms presents a foundational summary of the feedback between the effect of climate change on forests and the converse effects of forests on climate, leading to conclusions on how forest management needs to be dictated by climate change.The book will be ideal for readers in the fields of climate change science, forest science and conservation biology, helping them develop a thorough understanding on the broad perspective of climate change on forests, the response of forests to these changes, and other climate-forest interaction potentials. Organizes information on climate change and the effect of/on forests at a general level before presenting biome-related specifics Discusses the differences among major biomes (tropical, boreal, temperate) and the systems in which forest management (and hence potential mitigation and adaptation) occurs Goes beyond simply describing problems, elaborating on potential solutions that can be implemented for climate change mitigation

Public Sector Leadership in Assessing and Addressing Risk

Peter C. Young,Simon Grima,Rebecca E. Dalli Gonzi
Public Sector Leadership in Assessing and Addressing Risk Book PDF

Author : Peter C. Young,Simon Grima,Rebecca E. Dalli Gonzi
Publisher : Emerald Group Publishing
Page : 210 pages
File Size : 42,5 Mb
Release : 2022-04-04
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781801179485

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Public Sector Leadership in Assessing and Addressing Risk by Peter C. Young,Simon Grima,Rebecca E. Dalli Gonzi Pdf

Public Sector Leadership in Assessing and Addressing Risk explores risk management in practice, focusing on the identification of risks in the European public sector while contextualising its Eurocentric analysis within a global setting; it lays the groundwork for understanding the main philosophical premises of risk management.

The Gray Rhino

Michele Wucker
The Gray Rhino Book PDF

Author : Michele Wucker
Publisher : St. Martin's Press
Page : 288 pages
File Size : 40,7 Mb
Release : 2016-04-05
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781466887008

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The Gray Rhino by Michele Wucker Pdf

The #1 English-language bestseller in China--the book that is shaping China's planning and policy for the future. A "gray rhino" is a highly probable, high impact yet neglected threat: kin to both the elephant in the room and the improbable and unforeseeable black swan. Gray rhinos are not random surprises, but occur after a series of warnings and visible evidence. The bursting of the housing bubble in 2008, the devastating aftermath of Hurricane Katrina and other natural disasters, the new digital technologies that upended the media world, the fall of the Soviet Union...all were evident well in advance. Why do leaders and decision makers keep failing to address obvious dangers before they spiral out of control? Drawing on her extensive background in policy formation and crisis management, as well as in-depth interviews with leaders from around the world, Michele Wucker shows in The Gray Rhino how to recognize and strategically counter looming high impact threats. Filled with persuasive stories, real-world examples, and practical advice, The Gray Rhino is essential reading for managers, investors, planners, policy makers, and anyone who wants to understand how to profit by avoiding getting trampled.

Improving Disaster Resilience and Mitigation - IT Means and Tools

Horia-Nicolai Teodorescu,Alan Kirschenbaum,Svetlana Cojocaru,Claude Bruderlein
Improving Disaster Resilience and Mitigation IT Means and Tools Book PDF

Author : Horia-Nicolai Teodorescu,Alan Kirschenbaum,Svetlana Cojocaru,Claude Bruderlein
Publisher : Springer
Page : 344 pages
File Size : 47,9 Mb
Release : 2014-09-08
Category : Computers
ISBN : 9789401791366

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Improving Disaster Resilience and Mitigation - IT Means and Tools by Horia-Nicolai Teodorescu,Alan Kirschenbaum,Svetlana Cojocaru,Claude Bruderlein Pdf

The focus of this volume is comprised of the fundamentals, models, and information technologies (IT) methods and tools for disaster prediction and mitigation. A more detailed list of topics includes mathematical and computational modeling of processes leading to or producing disasters, modeling of disaster effects, IT means for disaster mitigation, including data mining tools, knowledge-based and expert systems for use in disaster circumstances, GIS-based systems for disaster prevention and mitigation and equipment for disaster-prone areas. A specific type or class of disasters (natural or human-made), however will not be part of the main focus of this work. Instead, this book was conceived to offer a comprehensive, integrative view on disasters, seeking to determine what various disasters have in common. Because disaster resilience and mitigation involve humans, societies and cultures, not only technologies and economic models, special attention was paid in this volume to gain a comprehensive view on these issues, as a foundation of the IT tool design.

The Black Swan Problem

Hakan Jankensgard
The Black Swan Problem Book PDF

Author : Hakan Jankensgard
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
Page : 246 pages
File Size : 48,6 Mb
Release : 2022-04-20
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781119868163

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The Black Swan Problem by Hakan Jankensgard Pdf

An incisive framework for companies seeking to increase their resilience In The Black Swan Problem: Risk Management Strategies for a World of Wild Uncertainty, renowned risk and finance expert Håkan Jankensgård delivers an extraordinary and startling discussion of how firms should navigate a world of uncertainty and unexpected events. It examines three fundamental, high-level strategies for creating resilience in the face of “black swan” risks, highly unlikely but devastating events: insurance, buffering, and flexibility: The author also presents: Detailed case studies, stories, and examples of major firms that failed to anticipate Black Swan Problems and, as a result, were either wiped out or experienced a major strategy disruption Extending the usual academic focus on individual biases to analyze Swans from an organizational perspective and prime organizations to proactive rather than reactive action Practical applications and tactics to mitigate Black Swan risks and protect corporate strategies against catastrophic losses and the collateral damage that they cause Strategies and tools for turning Black Swan events into opportunities, reflecting the fact that resilience can be used for strategic advantage An expert blueprint for companies seeking to anticipate, mitigate, and process tail risks, The Black Swan Problem is a must-read for students and practitioners of risk management, executives, founders, managers, and other business leaders.

Introduction To Finance: Financial Management And Investment Management

Pamela Peterson Drake,Frank J Fabozzi,Francesco A Fabozzi
Introduction To Finance Financial Management And Investment Management Book PDF

Author : Pamela Peterson Drake,Frank J Fabozzi,Francesco A Fabozzi
Publisher : World Scientific
Page : 829 pages
File Size : 45,6 Mb
Release : 2021-12-20
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9789811241291

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Introduction To Finance: Financial Management And Investment Management by Pamela Peterson Drake,Frank J Fabozzi,Francesco A Fabozzi Pdf

This book covers the fundamentals of financial management and investment management without getting into the highly technical topics and mathematical rigor. It also provides a practitioner-oriented approach to financial and investment management.The field of finance covers several specialty areas. The two most important ones which set the foundations for the other specialty areas are financial management and investment management, and these are the two major topics covered in the book. After touching on the basics — the financial system and the players, financial statements, and mathematics of finance — the authors then cover financial management and investment management in greater depth. For financial management the authors focus on financial strategy and financial planning, dividend policy, corporate financing decisions, entrepreneurial finance, financial risk management, and capital budgeting decisions. The investment management coverage includes the different types of risks faced in investing, company analysis, valuing common stock, portfolio selection, asset pricing theory, and investing in common stocks and bonds. The last chapter of the book covers financial derivatives and how they are used in finance to control risk.

The Routledge Companion to Marketing Research

Len Tiu Wright,Luiz Moutinho,Merlin Stone,Richard P. Bagozzi
The Routledge Companion to Marketing Research Book PDF

Author : Len Tiu Wright,Luiz Moutinho,Merlin Stone,Richard P. Bagozzi
Publisher : Routledge
Page : 623 pages
File Size : 50,5 Mb
Release : 2021-06-27
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781134826865

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The Routledge Companion to Marketing Research by Len Tiu Wright,Luiz Moutinho,Merlin Stone,Richard P. Bagozzi Pdf

This single-volume reference provides an alternative to traditional marketing research methods handbooks, focusing entirely on the new and innovative methods and technologies that are transforming marketing research and practice. Including original contributions and case studies from leading global specialists, this handbook covers many pioneering methods, such as: Methods for the analysis of user- and customer-generated data, including opinion mining and sentiment analysis Big data Neuroscientific techniques and physiological measures Voice prints Human–computer interaction Emerging approaches such as shadowing, netnographies and ethnographies Transcending the old divisions between qualitative and quantitative research methods, this book is an essential tool for market researchers in academia and practice.

New Directions in Strategic Thinking 2.0

Russell W. Glenn
New Directions in Strategic Thinking 2 0 Book PDF

Author : Russell W. Glenn
Publisher : ANU Press
Page : 265 pages
File Size : 54,5 Mb
Release : 2018-07-06
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 9781760462239

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New Directions in Strategic Thinking 2.0 by Russell W. Glenn Pdf

The Australian National University’s Strategic & Defence Studies Centre (SDSC) is Australia’s premier university-based strategic studies think tank. Fifty years after the Centre was founded in 1966, SDSC celebrated its continued research, publications, teaching and government advisory role with a two-day conference entitled ‘New Directions in Strategic Thinking 2.0’. The event saw the podium graced by many of the world’s premier thinkers in the strategic studies field. An evening between those tours to the lectern brought together academics, practitioners and other honoured guests at a commemorative dinner held beneath the widespread wings of the ‘G for George’ bomber in the Australian War Memorial—an event that included SDSC’s own Professor Desmond Ball AO making his last public appearance. Since SDSC’s 25th anniversary, the world has seen the collapse of the Soviet Union and the end of the Cold War. Bipolarity gave way to the emergence of the United States as the world’s sole superpower, a status many now see as under threat. Both the nature of the threats and identity of individual competitors has changed in the interim quarter-century. Non-state actors are presenting rising challenges to national governments. Meanwhile, a diminished Russia and far more wealthy China seek to reassert themselves. Never before has the call for reasoned innovative security studies thinking been more pronounced. Rarely has a group so able to offer that thought come together as was the case in July 2016. This book encapsulates the essence of this cutting-edge thinking and is a must read for those concerned with emerging strategic challenges facing Australia and its security partners.

Market-led Strategic Change

Nigel Piercy
Market led Strategic Change Book PDF

Author : Nigel Piercy
Publisher : Routledge
Page : 561 pages
File Size : 48,5 Mb
Release : 2009
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781856175043

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Market-led Strategic Change by Nigel Piercy Pdf

With the use of case studies this book will help the reader go back to basics by confronting critical questions in the organisation of marketing and how the critical processes of marketing, planning and budgeting are managed.

Safety, Reliability, Risk and Life-Cycle Performance of Structures and Infrastructures

George Deodatis,Bruce R. Ellingwood,Dan M. Frangopol
Safety Reliability Risk and Life Cycle Performance of Structures and Infrastructures Book PDF

Author : George Deodatis,Bruce R. Ellingwood,Dan M. Frangopol
Publisher : CRC Press
Page : 1112 pages
File Size : 52,6 Mb
Release : 2014-02-10
Category : Technology & Engineering
ISBN : 9781315884882

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Safety, Reliability, Risk and Life-Cycle Performance of Structures and Infrastructures by George Deodatis,Bruce R. Ellingwood,Dan M. Frangopol Pdf

Safety, Reliability, Risk and Life-Cycle Performance of Structures and Infrastructures contains the plenary lectures and papers presented at the 11th International Conference on STRUCTURAL SAFETY AND RELIABILITY (ICOSSAR2013, New York, NY, USA, 16-20 June 2013), and covers major aspects of safety, reliability, risk and life-cycle performance of str